Who leads the world, right now, and who did then.

Nothing here is a separate model. Each election question reads the probability our election forecast already publishes (New Zealand's coalition simulation, Brazil's run-off, Spain's and Israel's seat blocs), and asks only what that model actually prices: where it simulates seats rather than coalition talks, the question is about seats. A term end reads 100% only where the constitution both fixes the date and bars the holder from running again.

Every forecast is frozen when it locks and scored against the result. Resolution rules: The prime minister sworn in at the head of the first government formed after the election. If no government has been formed by 31 December, No government formed. Seats in the official count of the Congress of Deputies. A bloc wins with 176 of 350; the investiture bloc is the parties that voted Sánchez in at the last investiture. Yes if Emmanuel Macron no longer holds the office on 2027-05-14. Fixed by the constitution: Constitution of France, Article 6 (2008 revision): no one may serve more than two consecutive five-year terms. Macron's second term began on 14 May 2022. The rest follow the same rule for their own subject.