Election Forecasts
Weighted polling averages, seat ranges from thousands of simulations, uncertainty stated plainly.
United Statesmidterms · 3 Nov 2026
United Kingdomnext general election
Brazil4 Oct 2026
Israel2026
New Zealand2026
France2027 · early readUS & UK always on · other races join as votes near, retire once counted · updated 2026-09-16 · refreshes weekly
A forecast is labelled speculation. Everything else in this atlas records what happened; this page estimates what might. The ranges are wide because they should be: polls taken months or years before an election have missed by six points and more, and every number below carries that history. When the ranges look absurdly wide, they are working correctly.
Scored in public
Each forecast is frozen before its election and graded once the result is known.
How this is measured
Frozen and waiting
The full ledger, alongside football, the NFL and college football on one axis, is at /predictions/scoreboard.
United States: the 2026 midterms
3 November 2026, 1.6 months away.
How this is measured
The House 435 seats · 218 to control
Median and 90% range of 20,000 simulations. Democrats take the House in 81.9% of them. A lead, not a lock: the generic ballot at this range still misses by ±2.5 points.
The aggregators
| Decision Desk HQ | 47.9 | 41.2 | D+6.7 |
| FiftyPlusOne | 50.3 | 43.4 | D+6.9 |
| RealClearPolitics | 49.8 | 41.7 | D+8.1 |
| Silver Bulletin | 49.1 | 41.7 | D+7.4 |
| VoteHub | 49.0 | 41.8 | D+7.2 |
| Race to the WH | 49.5 | 41.8 | D+7.7 |
Individual-poll feeds thinned after FiveThirtyEight closed in 2025; the aggregators above are averaged as the national input.
The Senate 35 seats up · Democrats need 51, Republicans 50 with the Vice President
From today's 53–47: 22 Republican and 13 Democratic seats are on the ballot. The map, not the national mood, is the obstacle. Democrats can win the night and still miss the majority.
The races that decide it
Consensus of the eight ratings agencies (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato and peers), converted to probabilities and simulated with a shared national swing.
The Governors 36 of 50 mansions on the ballot · 26 for a majority
From today's 26–24: 18 Republican and 18 Democratic mansions are on the ballot; the other 14carry over. Governorships are independent state offices, so "majority" means most of the fifty, not control of anything, and the two figures fall short of 100% by the odds of an exact 25–25 split.
The races that decide it
Consensus of the ratings agencies (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato, Race to the WH, RCP, Fox and VoteHub), converted to probabilities and simulated with a shared national swing.
United Kingdom: the next general election
Due by August 2029 (modelled as 2029-05), 31.5 months away.
How this is measured
The polling average today
Five parties within thirteen points of the lead: the most fragmented polling picture in modern British history, in a system built for two parties.
What the simulations say
Across 4,000 simulated elections: a hung parliament 53.7% of the time · Labour largest 42.7% · Reform UK largest 35.4% · Conservative largest 21.8% · Labour majority 24% · Reform UK majority 15.6%.
326 seats for a majority. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are held at their 2024 outcome.
Seat ranges median and 90% range of the simulations · 650 seats
Proportional swing from the 2024 result in each of Great Britain's 632 constituencies, with national and per-seat error drawn from the historical record. First past the post makes seat counts hypersensitive: a two-point national move can swing a hundred seats, which is why the bars overlap so heavily.
The tracker fortnightly averages since the 2024 election
Brazil: the 2026 presidential election
First round 4 October 2026, 0.6 months away.
How this is measured
First round vote share, %
Nobody near the 50% needed to win outright, so the numbers point firmly to a runoff.
The runoff 25 October 2026
Head-to-head averages simulated with the historical error of Brazilian polls at this horizon: an 8-point first-round lead is far from safe once the field consolidates.
Israel: the 2026 Knesset election
Set for 27 October 2026, 1.3 months away, after the Knesset dissolved itself on 17 July 2026.
How this is measured
Seat averages 120 seats · 61 for a majority
Parties polling under the 3.25% threshold (about four seats) are shown at zero, as the pollsters publish them.
The coalition question
No bloc tally published yet.
New Zealand: the 2026 general election
Set for 7 November 2026, 1.7 months away.
How this is measured
The polling average today
MMP makes the blocs the real contest: National + ACT + NZ First against Labour + Greens + Te Pāti Māori, with TOP hovering at the threshold.
What the simulations say
Across 10,000 simulated elections: the governing right bloc holds its majority 84.2% of the time · the left bloc takes one 8.1% · neither reaches 61 in 7.7%, a genuine three-way coin flip.
120 seats, 61 for a majority. Overhang seats and electorate-level upsets are not modelled: they have decided NZ coalitions before.
Seat ranges median and 90% range · 120 seats
France: the 2027 presidential election
Due spring 2027 (modelled as 2027-04), 6.8 months away.
How this is measured
First round scenario average, %
19 scenario polls; latest 2026-09-10. The top two advance to the runoff, and second place is wide open.
Tested runoffs head-to-head averages
Nine months out in 2016, the eventual runoff pairing wasn't being polled at all. Treat these as today's temperature, nothing more.
How these forecasts work
The averages
Each pollster's latest poll within 45 days, weighted by recency (14-day half-life) and sample size. A simple transparent average, validated on 22 past elections across four countries, where it called 87% of winners within 1.3 points.
Seats from votes
US House: the generic-ballot margin mapped through the 2012–2024 seats-votes relationship. US Senate and governors: the ratings agencies' consensus per race, converted to win probabilities and simulated with a shared national swing, the governors aggregated to mansions held out of 50, starting from today's 26–24 Republican edge. UK: each party's national movement applied proportionally to its 2024 result in all 632 GB constituencies (Commons Library data). New Zealand: Sainte-Laguë over the simulated party vote. Israel: the pollsters' own seat projections, averaged. Brazil and France: round-by-round candidate averages.
Why the ranges are wide
Polls this far from polling day are weather, not prophecy: three years out, national surveys have missed final results by six points and more (FiveThirtyEight's raw-polls archive; Jennings & Wlezien). The error scales into every simulation, which is why the honest answer is a range.
Sources and refresh
Polling and ratings tables from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0); GE2024 constituency results from the House of Commons Library (Open Parliament Licence); historical calibration from FiveThirtyEight's open archive (CC BY 4.0). A scheduled job (Mon/Wed/Fri) re-scrapes, re-simulates and republishes.