The Recognition Gap

Status and substance are not the same thing. The Power Atlas measures both: what a country has, and what the world treats it as having.

195 states · 1816 to 2026 · Correlates of War, Maddison, site power score · built 2026-09-05

States

195

ranked in 2026

Most under-recognised

+12.8

China

Most over-recognised

-27.3

United States

Tracked since

1816

15 powers with a full series

Today

Points of world power share: positive is mass not yet priced in, negative is status the base does not carry.

How this is measured

Latent material mass minus recognised standing, both as a share of world power in the same year.

Latent power is material mass. Recognised power adds what a state spends, how far it reaches, and the standing it has been granted: a permanent seat, a nuclear arsenal, leadership of a bloc. A country can have one without the other, and the interesting cases are the ones where the two have come apart.

Sort by

China

latent 25.1 · recognised 12.3 · power rank 2

+12.8

gap

India

latent 10.9 · recognised 3.4 · power rank 8

+7.5

gap

Indonesia

latent 2.1 · recognised 0.5 · power rank 19

+1.6

gap

Brazil

latent 2.1 · recognised 1.0 · power rank 11

+1.2

gap

Vietnam

latent 1.3 · recognised 0.1 · power rank 38

+1.1

gap

Nigeria

latent 1.1 · recognised 0.1 · power rank 48

+1.0

gap

Iran

latent 1.6 · recognised 0.6 · power rank 42

+1.0

gap

Bangladesh

latent 1.1 · recognised 0.1 · power rank 49

+1.0

gap

Turkey

latent 1.6 · recognised 0.6 · power rank 17

+1.0

gap

Mexico

latent 1.4 · recognised 0.5 · power rank 14

+0.9

gap

Egypt

latent 1.2 · recognised 0.3 · power rank 33

+0.9

gap

South Korea

latent 2.3 · recognised 1.5 · power rank 15

+0.8

gap

#
1	China	China recognition gap in points of world share +12.8	25.1	12.3	2
2	India	India recognition gap in points of world share +7.5	10.9	3.4	8
3	Indonesia	Indonesia recognition gap in points of world share +1.6	2.1	0.5	19
4	Brazil	Brazil recognition gap in points of world share +1.2	2.1	1.0	11
5	Vietnam	Vietnam recognition gap in points of world share +1.1	1.3	0.1	38
6	Nigeria	Nigeria recognition gap in points of world share +1.0	1.1	0.1	48
7	Iran	Iran recognition gap in points of world share +1.0	1.6	0.6	42
8	Bangladesh	Bangladesh recognition gap in points of world share +1.0	1.1	0.1	49
9	Turkey	Turkey recognition gap in points of world share +1.0	1.6	0.6	17
10	Mexico	Mexico recognition gap in points of world share +0.9	1.4	0.5	14
11	Egypt	Egypt recognition gap in points of world share +0.9	1.2	0.3	33
12	South Korea	South Korea recognition gap in points of world share +0.8	2.3	1.5	15
13	Ukraine	Ukraine recognition gap in points of world share +0.8	0.9	0.1	50
14	Pakistan	Pakistan recognition gap in points of world share +0.8	1.9	1.1	40
15	Myanmar	Myanmar recognition gap in points of world share +0.7	0.8	0.0	84
16	Ethiopia	Ethiopia recognition gap in points of world share +0.7	0.7	0.0	75
17	North Korea	North Korea recognition gap in points of world share +0.7	1.6	0.9	81
18	Thailand	Thailand recognition gap in points of world share +0.7	1.0	0.3	31
19	Philippines	Philippines recognition gap in points of world share +0.6	0.7	0.1	34
20	Congo DR	Congo DR recognition gap in points of world share +0.6	0.6	0.0	62
21	Sudan	Sudan recognition gap in points of world share +0.5	0.5	0.0	82
22	South Africa	South Africa recognition gap in points of world share +0.5	0.7	0.2	22
23	Colombia	Colombia recognition gap in points of world share +0.4	0.7	0.3	32
24	Venezuela	Venezuela recognition gap in points of world share +0.4	0.4	0.0	60
25	Morocco	Morocco recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.4	0.1	54
26	United Arab Emirates	United Arab Emirates recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.3	0.0	23
27	Tanzania	Tanzania recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.3	0.0	67
28	Afghanistan	Afghanistan recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.4	0.1	107
29	Kazakhstan	Kazakhstan recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.3	0.0	55
30	South Sudan	South Sudan recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.3	0.0	201
31	Uzbekistan	Uzbekistan recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.3	0.0	71
32	Sri Lanka	Sri Lanka recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.3	0.0	59
33	Eritrea	Eritrea recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.3	0.0	193
34	Uganda	Uganda recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.3	0.0	123
35	Nepal	Nepal recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.3	0.0	102
36	Kenya	Kenya recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.3	0.0	57
37	Syria	Syria recognition gap in points of world share +0.3	0.3	0.0	100
38	Angola	Angola recognition gap in points of world share +0.2	0.3	0.1	103
39	Cambodia	Cambodia recognition gap in points of world share +0.2	0.2	0.0	72
40	Peru	Peru recognition gap in points of world share +0.2	0.3	0.1	53
41	Argentina	Argentina recognition gap in points of world share +0.2	0.5	0.3	27
42	Belarus	Belarus recognition gap in points of world share +0.2	0.2	0.0	83
43	Mozambique	Mozambique recognition gap in points of world share +0.2	0.2	0.0	118
44	Yemen	Yemen recognition gap in points of world share +0.2	0.2	0.0	124
45	Ghana	Ghana recognition gap in points of world share +0.2	0.2	0.0	88
46	Algeria	Algeria recognition gap in points of world share +0.2	0.5	0.3	68
47	Jordan	Jordan recognition gap in points of world share +0.2	0.2	0.0	78
48	Côte d'Ivoire	Côte d'Ivoire recognition gap in points of world share +0.2	0.2	0.0	114
49	Malaysia	Malaysia recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.4	0.3	24
50	Madagascar	Madagascar recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	134
51	Cameroon	Cameroon recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	94
52	Greece	Greece recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.3	0.2	35
53	Cuba	Cuba recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	89
54	Azerbaijan	Azerbaijan recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.2	0.0	61
55	Ecuador	Ecuador recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.2	0.0	70
56	Romania	Romania recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.3	0.1	56
57	Kuwait	Kuwait recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	65
58	Dominican Republic	Dominican Republic recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	73
59	Zimbabwe	Zimbabwe recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	110
60	Guatemala	Guatemala recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	119
61	Niger	Niger recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	176
62	Turkmenistan	Turkmenistan recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	127
63	Slovakia	Slovakia recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	91
64	Burkina Faso	Burkina Faso recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	159
65	Chad	Chad recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	187
66	Zambia	Zambia recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	129
67	Poland	Poland recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.6	0.5	20
68	Serbia	Serbia recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	64
69	Rwanda	Rwanda recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	117
70	Malawi	Malawi recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	143
71	Bolivia	Bolivia recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	77
72	Somalia	Somalia recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	158
73	Senegal	Senegal recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	112
74	Tunisia	Tunisia recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	74
75	Bulgaria	Bulgaria recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	80
76	Mali	Mali recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	140
77	Burundi	Burundi recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	179
78	Guinea	Guinea recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	171
79	Laos	Laos recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	133
80	Lebanon	Lebanon recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	95
81	Benin	Benin recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	177
82	Armenia	Armenia recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	109
83	El Salvador	El Salvador recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	137
84	Tajikistan	Tajikistan recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	136
85	Haiti	Haiti recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	163
86	Honduras	Honduras recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	122
87	Chile	Chile recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.2	0.2	45
88	Qatar	Qatar recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.1	51
89	Togo	Togo recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	162
90	Sierra Leone	Sierra Leone recognition gap in points of world share +0.1	0.1	0.0	172
91	Nicaragua	Nicaragua recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	141
92	Czech Republic	Czech Republic recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.2	0.1	44
93	Paraguay	Paraguay recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.1	0.0	104
94	Kyrgyzstan	Kyrgyzstan recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	156
95	Bosnia-Herzegovina	Bosnia-Herzegovina recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.1	0.0	97
96	Papua New Guinea	Papua New Guinea recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	165
97	Georgia	Georgia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.1	0.0	87
98	Uruguay	Uruguay recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.1	0.0	86
99	Hungary	Hungary recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.1	0.1	52
100	Libya	Libya recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	147
101	Croatia	Croatia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.1	0.0	76
102	Mauritania	Mauritania recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	181
103	Lithuania	Lithuania recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	85
104	Mongolia	Mongolia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	170
105	Central African Republic	Central African Republic recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	188
106	Luxembourg	Luxembourg recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	93
107	Moldova	Moldova recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	139
108	Congo	Congo recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	154
109	Trinidad & Tobago	Trinidad & Tobago recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	149
110	Liberia	Liberia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	174
111	Portugal	Portugal recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.1	0.1	28
112	Slovenia	Slovenia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	92
113	Albania	Albania recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	120
114	North Macedonia	North Macedonia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	125
115	Costa Rica	Costa Rica recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	90
116	Jamaica	Jamaica recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	106
117	Bahrain	Bahrain recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	69
118	Djibouti	Djibouti recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	155
119	Namibia	Namibia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	173
120	Gabon	Gabon recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	152
121	Guinea-Bissau	Guinea-Bissau recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	202
122	Cyprus	Cyprus recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	79
123	Kosovo	Kosovo recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	153
124	Botswana	Botswana recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	164
125	Lesotho	Lesotho recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	200
126	Latvia	Latvia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	105
127	Gambia	Gambia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	195
128	Equatorial Guinea	Equatorial Guinea recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	189
129	Fiji	Fiji recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	108
130	New Zealand	New Zealand recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.1	0.1	43
131	Panama	Panama recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	63
132	Montenegro	Montenegro recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	98
133	Guyana	Guyana recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	166
134	East Timor	East Timor recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	205
135	Estonia	Estonia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	111
136	Brunei	Brunei recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	157
137	Suriname	Suriname recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	206
138	Malta	Malta recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	99
139	Cape Verde	Cape Verde recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	194
140	Mauritius	Mauritius recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	115
141	Belize	Belize recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	207
142	Solomon Islands	Solomon Islands recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	213
143	Federated States of Micronesia	Federated States of Micronesia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	232
144	Iceland	Iceland recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	113
145	Barbados	Barbados recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	126
146	Maldives	Maldives recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	208
147	Bahamas	Bahamas recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	121
148	Seychelles	Seychelles recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	130
149	Saint Lucia	Saint Lucia recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	151
150	St. Vincent & the Grenadines	St. Vincent & the Grenadines recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	167
151	Grenada	Grenada recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	168
152	Samoa	Samoa recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	175
153	Vanuatu	Vanuatu recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	211
154	Tonga	Tonga recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	214
155	Kiribati	Kiribati recognition gap in points of world share +0.0	0.0	0.0	215
156	Monaco	Monaco recognition gap in points of world share 0.0	0.0	0.0	96
157	San Marino	San Marino recognition gap in points of world share 0.0	0.0	0.0	138
158	Andorra	Andorra recognition gap in points of world share 0.0	0.0	0.0	145
159	St. Kitts & Nevis	St. Kitts & Nevis recognition gap in points of world share 0.0	0.0	0.0	146
160	Antigua & Barbuda	Antigua & Barbuda recognition gap in points of world share 0.0	0.0	0.0	150
161	Marshall Islands	Marshall Islands recognition gap in points of world share 0.0	0.0	0.0	198
162	Liechtenstein	Liechtenstein recognition gap in points of world share 0.0	0.0	0.0	217
163	Dominica	Dominica recognition gap in points of world share 0.0	0.0	0.0	218
164	Palau	Palau recognition gap in points of world share 0.0	0.0	0.0	221
165	Nauru	Nauru recognition gap in points of world share 0.0	0.0	0.0	222
166	Tuvalu	Tuvalu recognition gap in points of world share 0.0	0.0	0.0	224
167	Eswatini	Eswatini recognition gap in points of world share −0.0	-0.0	0.0	204
168	Bhutan	Bhutan recognition gap in points of world share −0.0	-0.0	0.0	142
169	Comoros	Comoros recognition gap in points of world share −0.0	-0.0	0.0	209
170	São Tomé and Príncipe	São Tomé and Príncipe recognition gap in points of world share −0.0	-0.0	0.0	184
171	Singapore	Singapore recognition gap in points of world share −0.0	0.2	0.2	37
172	Finland	Finland recognition gap in points of world share −0.0	0.1	0.2	47
173	Taiwan	Taiwan recognition gap in points of world share −0.0	0.7	0.7	30
174	Austria	Austria recognition gap in points of world share −0.0	0.2	0.2	26
175	Belgium	Belgium recognition gap in points of world share −0.0	0.3	0.3	21
176	Iraq	Iraq recognition gap in points of world share −0.0	0.3	0.4	66
177	Oman	Oman recognition gap in points of world share −0.0	0.1	0.2	101
178	Ireland	Ireland recognition gap in points of world share −0.1	0.0	0.2	46
179	Spain	Spain recognition gap in points of world share −0.1	0.7	0.8	9
180	Denmark	Denmark recognition gap in points of world share −0.1	0.1	0.2	36
181	Sweden	Sweden recognition gap in points of world share −0.2	0.2	0.3	29
182	Netherlands	Netherlands recognition gap in points of world share −0.3	0.3	0.6	16
183	Switzerland	Switzerland recognition gap in points of world share −0.4	0.1	0.5	18
184	Norway	Norway recognition gap in points of world share −0.4	0.1	0.6	41
185	Italy	Italy recognition gap in points of world share −0.7	1.0	1.7	6
186	Australia	Australia recognition gap in points of world share −0.8	0.4	1.2	12
187	Canada	Canada recognition gap in points of world share −0.8	0.7	1.5	10
188	Israel	Israel recognition gap in points of world share −1.0	0.3	1.3	39
189	Saudi Arabia	Saudi Arabia recognition gap in points of world share −1.3	0.9	2.1	25
190	Japan	Japan recognition gap in points of world share −1.5	2.9	4.4	7
191	Russia	Russia recognition gap in points of world share −1.8	3.6	5.4	13
192	Germany	Germany recognition gap in points of world share −2.4	1.5	3.9	4
193	France	France recognition gap in points of world share −4.9	0.9	5.8	5
194	United Kingdom	United Kingdom recognition gap in points of world share −5.1	0.8	5.9	3
195	United States	United States recognition gap in points of world share −27.3	6.8	34.1	1

Since 1816

Every state that has held a top eight place, with its gap in every year it was ranked.

How this is measured

Series start at 1816, where the Correlates of War capability data begins. Earlier Power Atlas years are benchmark-interpolated and carry wide error bars.

Austria-0.0

Canada-0.8

China+12.8

France-4.9

Germany-2.4

India+7.5

Italy-0.7

Japan-1.5

Netherlands-0.3

Poland+0.1

Russia-1.8

Spain-0.1

Turkey+1.0

United Kingdom-5.1

United States-27.3

An open question, not a findingunresolved

Whether the gap leads war onset is an open question on this site, not a finding. It needs an initiation coding the war dataset does not yet carry.

The obvious thing to ask of this series is whether a wide gap comes before a war. The site holds 623 wars back to 1500 and could join them to this board tomorrow. It will not, yet, for three reasons: the war data records two sides but not who started it, there are no controls for how violent a given era was, and part of the recognised score is a curated status layer assigned with hindsight, which could be circular with war itself. Any of the three is enough to make a result look real when it is not.

When those are resolved the answer goes on the Ledger, with a date, whichever way it comes out.

Sourcesbuilt 2026-09-05

Correlates of War NMC v6.0
Maddison Project Database 2023
site country score and curated status layer