Title odds

Who wins next, in every league, cup and tournament we can rate, beside the betting market.

Data as of · Rebuilt daily from the season sims.

Deciding next

The races settled soonest, with our favourite and the side chasing it.

Japan SeriesDecided by 29 Oct 2026Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks65%Hanshin Tigers23%
WNBADecided by 31 Oct 2026Golden State Valkyries55%Atlanta Dream45%
MLBDecided by 31 Oct 2026Milwaukee Brewers59%Cleveland Guardians14%
CFLDecided by 15 Nov 2026Montreal Alouettes41%Edmonton Elks32%

Every race, by sport

Bars share one scale per card; the white tick is the market. The line under a card is how its top three have moved. Names open the team's page.

51 races

Football

20 races

Leagues and cups

Champions League

2026-27 · In season · decided by 5 Jun 2027

4 more

Everyone else23%

Bayern MunichParis Saint-GermainArsenal
0%20%10 Oct13 Oct

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Bracket simulationFull modelMkt: Polymarket

Show all 13 leagues and cups

Major League Soccer

2026 · In season · decided by 15 Dec 2026

  • Nashville SCOur odds 45%Market 18%
  • Vancouver WhitecapsOur odds 25%Market 21%
  • Inter Miami CFOur odds 7%Market 13%
  • St. Louis CITY SCOur odds 7%Market 6%
4 more
  • Chicago Fire FCOur odds 3%Market 5%
  • San Jose EarthquakesOur odds 2%Market 2%
  • FC DallasOur odds 2%Market 5%
  • Charlotte FCOur odds 2%Market 2%

Everyone else6%

Nashville SCVancouver WhitecapsInter Miami CF
0%50%10 Oct13 Oct

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Season simulationMkt: Polymarket

National teams

Show all 7 national teams

Women's football

4 races

Leagues and cups

National teams

FIFA Women's World Cup

2027 · Starts 20 Jun 2027

  • SpainOur odds 26%
  • United StatesOur odds 24%
  • EnglandOur odds 10%
  • JapanOur odds 10%
4 more
  • GermanyOur odds 8%
  • FranceOur odds 7%
  • BrazilOur odds 4%
  • CanadaOur odds 3%

Everyone else8%

Odds history starts 10 Oct; the trend line appears after three days.

Favourite strength

UEFA Women's Championship

2029 · Starts 21 Jun 2029

  • SpainOur odds 40%
  • EnglandOur odds 18%
  • GermanyOur odds 14%
  • FranceOur odds 13%
4 more
  • SwedenOur odds 6%
  • DenmarkOur odds 3%
  • NetherlandsOur odds 3%
  • ItalyOur odds 2%

Everyone else1%

Odds history starts 10 Oct; the trend line appears after three days.

Favourite strength

Olympic women's football

2028 · Starts 25 Jun 2028

  • SpainOur odds 30%
  • United StatesOur odds 27%
  • JapanOur odds 11%
  • GermanyOur odds 10%
4 more
  • FranceOur odds 9%
  • BrazilOur odds 5%
  • CanadaOur odds 4%
  • SwedenOur odds 3%

Everyone else2%

Odds history starts 10 Oct; the trend line appears after three days.

Favourite strength

American football

3 races

NFL

2026 · In season · decided by 7 Feb 2027

4 more

Everyone else32%

San Francisco 49ersBuffalo BillsKansas City Chiefs
0%20%3 Sept13 Oct

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Season simulationFull modelMkt: Polymarket

College Football

2026 · In season · decided by 18 Jan 2027

  • Notre DameOur odds 16%Market 12%
  • AlabamaOur odds 14%Market 11%
  • Ohio StateOur odds 13%Market 14%
  • GeorgiaOur odds 11%Market 20%
4 more
  • IndianaOur odds 9%Market 6%
  • Miami FLOur odds 9%Market —
  • UtahOur odds 4%Market —
  • TexasOur odds 3%Market 9%

Everyone else21%

Notre DameAlabamaOhio State
0%20%3 Sept13 Oct

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Season simulationFull modelMkt: Polymarket

Basketball

6 races

Leagues and cups

NBA

2026-27 · In season · decided by 15 Jun 2027

4 more

Everyone else24%

San Antonio SpursOklahoma City ThunderNew York Knicks
0%20%1 Oct13 Oct

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Season simulationFull modelMkt: Polymarket

EuroLeague

2026-27 · In season · decided by 20 May 2027

  • Olympiacos PiraeusOur odds 20%
  • Valencia BasketOur odds 17%
  • Panathinaikos AKTOR AthensOur odds 15%
  • Zalgiris KaunasOur odds 11%
4 more
  • Real MadridOur odds 8%
  • Fenerbahce Tarfin IstanbulOur odds 6%
  • Hapoel IBI Tel AvivOur odds 5%
  • Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet BelgradeOur odds 5%

Everyone else13%

Olympiacos PiraeusValencia BasketPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens
0%30%2 Oct13 Oct

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Season simulationFull model

National teams

Olympic women's basketball

2028 · Starts 13 Jul 2028

  • United StatesOur odds 77%
  • FranceOur odds 8%
  • SpainOur odds 5%
  • AustraliaOur odds 4%
4 more
  • BelgiumOur odds 3%
  • ChinaOur odds 1%
  • CanadaOur odds 1%
  • GermanyOur odds 1%

Everyone else<1%

Odds history starts 10 Oct; the trend line appears after three days.

Favourite strength

Ice hockey

3 races

Leagues and cups

NHL

2026-27 · In season · decided by 15 Jun 2027

4 more

Everyone else33%

Colorado AvalancheTampa Bay LightningCarolina Hurricanes
0%20%17 Sept13 Oct

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Season simulationFull modelMkt: Polymarket

National teams

Baseball

3 races

Leagues and cups

National teams

Cricket

4 races

Leagues and cups

IPL

2027 · Starts 1 Apr 2027

  • Royal Challengers BengaluruOur odds 18%
  • Gujarat TitansOur odds 13%
  • Sunrisers HyderabadOur odds 12%
  • Delhi CapitalsOur odds 10%
4 more
  • Punjab KingsOur odds 10%
  • Rajasthan RoyalsOur odds 10%
  • Kolkata Knight RidersOur odds 9%
  • Chennai Super KingsOur odds 7%

Everyone else11%

Odds history starts 10 Oct; the trend line appears after three days.

Favourite strength

National teams

Rugby union

2 races

Rugby league

1 race

Handball

2 races

IHF World Championship

2027 · Starts 13 Jan 2027

4 more
  • EgyptOur odds 5%
  • SwedenOur odds 4%
  • PortugalOur odds 3%
  • IcelandOur odds 3%

Everyone else6%

Odds history starts 10 Oct; the trend line appears after three days.

Favourite strength

Olympic men's handball

2028 · Starts 12 Jul 2028

4 more
  • EgyptOur odds 5%
  • PortugalOur odds 4%
  • SwedenOur odds 4%
  • NorwayOur odds 2%

Everyone else3%

Odds history starts 10 Oct; the trend line appears after three days.

Favourite strength

Volleyball

2 races

Motorsport

1 race

How these odds are made

The three methodsmethod

VerifiedThe AFL and NRL ladders and finals hold together, the market de-vig sums to one and club Elo is zero-sum under property tests; the backtest board here scores past seasons. About the tiers

Season simulation. European leagues run on our club Elo: the points each club has banked, then every remaining game drawn from the Elo engine's own win, draw and loss model, with home advantage and the draw rate measured on each league's last five seasons. Each simulated season also shakes every rating by an amount fitted on 167 past league seasons. Scotland's split is simulated. The North American leagues, the Premier League, the Champions League, the EuroLeague and Formula 1 reuse their own published models unchanged.

Bracket simulation. The Europa League and Conference League play their drawn league phase, then the real knockout bracket. Goals are not modelled, so a two-legged tie level on results goes to extra time and penalties. The FA Cup is drawn at random from the third round, with the lower divisions entered at the club Elo's own rating for a cup-only side.

Favourite strength. Where we hold national or franchise ratings but not the fixtures, each side gets a tournament form shock, the strongest by form reach a randomly drawn knockout, and the ratings settle it. Groups, hosts, squads and the draw itself are not modelled. The field is the sides from the last two editions that have played in the last three years. Treat these as the ratings' view of who is strongest, with lower confidence than a simulation.

Every forecast freezes at the season start, or on the day we first published it if the season had already begun, and is scored against the champion the Champions Ledger records. A side the live season sim has knocked out is removed the same day, before the next rebuild. Markets are Polymarket's, with the bookmaker margin removed, shown only where the event has traded at least $10,000. A reference line, not advice.

How they have done467 seasons

Each family predicts past seasons from the preseason and is scored against the champion. Lower log loss and Brier are better; the figure in brackets is picking at random.

European club leagues
167 seasons · favourite won 54% · log loss 1.23
89%
top 3
International football
111 seasons · favourite won 27% · log loss 1.95
61%
top 3
International rugby union
36 seasons · favourite won 28% · log loss 1.49
78%
top 3
International basketball
27 seasons · favourite won 70% · log loss 1.00
89%
top 3
International handball
26 seasons · favourite won 46% · log loss 1.82
73%
top 3
FA Cup
21 seasons · favourite won 14% · log loss 2.39
57%
top 3
International cricket
18 seasons · favourite won 39% · log loss 2.00
78%
top 3
IPL
18 seasons · favourite won 11% · log loss 2.15
44%
top 3
International volleyball
18 seasons · favourite won 39% · log loss 1.73
67%
top 3
International ice hockey
13 seasons · favourite won 15% · log loss 1.79
69%
top 3
World Baseball Classic
6 seasons · favourite won 33% · log loss 2.26
50%
top 3
UEFA club competitions
6 seasons · favourite won 33% · log loss 2.21
50%
top 3
Not forecast96, and why
Where these numbers come fromsources

Club ratings: our club Elo over every top-flight, European and major-cup match since the 1950s. National ratings: our own Elo for football, basketball, handball, ice hockey, volleyball, rugby union and baseball, and a replay of the ICC rankings for cricket. IPL: our franchise Elo. Champions: the Champions Ledger. Markets: Polymarket.

Rebuilt daily from the season sims and every Monday after the weekly club Elo update. Model titles-v1. See the track record for every forecast family on the site.