Rome, Rome · Italy · Serie A
Every Italian top-flight match this club has played in the Serie A, scored against the odds an Elo rating gave it before kick-off. Over 83 seasons from 1929-30 to 2024-25 it has beaten them by +29.2 match points.
Season points use that season’s own scoring, two for a win before 1994-95 and three from it; the bars use match points so the whole series is comparable. The rating only starts telling you much after about 1960. Before that, knowing the era’s home-and-away split is almost as good as knowing the teams.
1945-46 table not final: two regional groups (Alta Italia, Centro-Sud) plus a final round.
This side's chance in each title race we forecast, frozen and scored like every forecast here.
Season titles · resolves 20 May 2027
7%Lazio's chance
“mkt” is Polymarket’s price, a reference line, not advice.
How the model worksSeason titles record: 100% of 3 calls right
Full odds: Serie A · every title race
The entity that holds control today, one per franchise; co-controllers and minority holders are listed, never summed.
Exactly one control entity is recorded per franchise, so a portfolio can never count a club twice. Co-controllers and minority holders are shown as published and carry no weight in any total.
The chip names the evidence. Sourced: a primary source is linked (league, club, filing or tier-one outlet). Cross-checked: matched against the ownership-change sweep. Contested: disputed or mid-sale. Rows are reviewed weekly.
Stakes are as published, often only “majority”, and are not pro-rated. A record of control is not a claim about anyone’s intent or conduct.
Listed on Borsa Italiana. Lotito publicly denied sale negotiations in Oct 2025.
Fees paid and received each season, and what the squad was worth once the trading is netted out.
Spent is the fees paid for players arriving, received the fees for players leaving, both in EUR millions by the July-to-June season of the move. A move with no fee on record (a free, a loan, an undisclosed sum) is counted, never priced: the small figure beside each total is the moves with a fee, plus those without (so 4+3 is four priced arrivals and three unpriced), and a quiet window is not mistaken for a cheap one. Wages are not here: they are estimates nobody licenses, and fees are documented.
Appreciation is the season’s change in squad value with the net spend taken out: buy 100m of players and finish 100m higher is zero; finish 120m higher and the club made 20m of players better, or the market repriced them. It needs a priced squad at both ends of the season (the same 15-player floor as the value chart), so it is blank rather than guessed for a season that lacks one.
The source has been paused since 6 July 2026, so the final row holds only the opening days of its window.
Transfer fees and player valuations from Transfermarkt via github.com/dcaribou/transfermarkt-datasets (CC0).
Grown or bought: in 2026-27, trading −€11m and appreciation —. Over the last 5 seasons (2022-23–2026-27), trading −€29m and appreciation unpriced.
The director’s ledger: 81 arrivals graded since 2022-23, 90% EV-positive. €222m deployed for a 1.3× multiplier.
Lazio's top matches by the club Game Score: closeness, stakes, quality and upset over one unified rating of league and European play. H, A and N mark home, away and a neutral venue; a ★ is a curated all-time classic (tap it for the model's own score).All-time board.
The Tortured · League title, 2000
lost the national cup final, 2026 · league runner-up, 2023 · lost the Europa League final, 1998 · league runner-up, 1995
One formula, every club the site covers. See the whole board →
Open the official channel on YouTube
Calculated by Citizen of Nowhere from YouTube channel statistics, as of 2 Nov 2026. Not part of the Fan Attention Index. Not ranked.
Data from YouTube API Services · YouTube Terms of Service · How we use YouTube data
Most recent season first. Covers Serie A only. Rows tagged "national playoff" are pre-modern formats where the workbook records only playoff participants, not round-robin standings.
Most recent first. Every domestic cup final the club has played, including losses. Scheduled finals (date not yet passed) are flagged.
Most recent first. One row per entry showing the deepest round reached. A Cup Winner badge marks tournaments the club won: gold for the European Cup / Champions League, silver for every other UEFA or Intercontinental trophy.
