Champions League 2026-27

LIVE

Champion, top-eight and knockout odds for every club, updated as fixtures land.

ucl-poisson-v2 · updated 2026-10-30T11:44:14Z · after 54 matches

Live forecast

Paris Saint-Germain has a 16.9% chance to win the Champions League

10,000 simulated seasons · model only, no market blend yet · field 40%

The champion board

Share of simulated seasons each club lifts the trophy at the Metropolitano in Madrid.

1Paris Saint-Germain16.9%

2Arsenal14.7%

3Bayern Munich13.4%

4Real Madrid7.4%

5Manchester City7.2%

6FC Barcelona7.2%

7Aston Villa6.8%

8Liverpool6.3%

9Internazionale4%

10Atlético de Madrid2.4%

11Borussia Dortmund2.1%

12Real Betis1.7%

13AS Roma1.6%

14Manchester United1.4%

15Sporting Clube de Portugal1.3%

16SSC Napoli1.1%

17VfB Stuttgart0.7%

18Club Brugge0.6%

19Como0.5%

20PSV Eindhoven0.5%

The next fixtures, called18 fixtures

The next fixtures, called

Win-draw-win probabilities for the upcoming league-phase matches, model-only for now.

Why no market column

No public odds file carries the Champions League yet, so the market column the Premier League hub enjoys has nothing to join on.

Galatasaray SK

v VfB Stuttgart

Tue 3 Nov · 17:45 UTC

Model 38%/25%/37%

Galatasaray SK

FC Shakhtar Donetsk

v Sporting Clube de Portugal

Tue 3 Nov · 17:45 UTC

Model 25%/24%/52%

Sporting Clube de Portugal

Villarreal

v Paris Saint-Germain

Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC

Model 20%/22%/58%

Paris Saint-Germain

FK Bodø/Glimt

v Lille OSC

Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC

Model 35%/25%/39%

Lille OSC

Manchester United

v AS Roma

Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC

Model 42%/25%/33%

Manchester United

Feyenoord

v Internazionale

Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC

Model 24%/24%/53%

Internazionale

FC Barcelona

v Aston Villa

Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC

Model 41%/25%/34%

FC Barcelona

Atlético de Madrid

v Bayern Munich

Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC

Model 28%/25%/47%

Bayern Munich

LASK Linz

v ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC

Model 44%/25%/31%

LASK Linz

Fenerbahçe SK

v Liverpool

Wed 4 Nov · 17:45 UTC

Model 23%/23%/54%

Liverpool

AEK Athens

v Real Madrid

Wed 4 Nov · 17:45 UTC

Model 21%/22%/57%

Real Madrid

RC Lens

v Como

Wed 4 Nov · 20:00 UTC

Model 38%/25%/37%

RC Lens

Kickoff	Fixture	Home	Draw	Away	Pick
Tue 3 Nov · 17:45 UTC	Galatasaray SKv VfB Stuttgart	38%	25%	37%	Galatasaray SK
Tue 3 Nov · 17:45 UTC	FC Shakhtar Donetskv Sporting Clube de Portugal	25%	24%	52%	Sporting Clube de Portugal
Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC	Villarrealv Paris Saint-Germain	20%	22%	58%	Paris Saint-Germain
Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC	FK Bodø/Glimtv Lille OSC	35%	25%	39%	Lille OSC
Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC	Manchester Unitedv AS Roma	42%	25%	33%	Manchester United
Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC	Feyenoordv Internazionale	24%	24%	53%	Internazionale
Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC	FC Barcelonav Aston Villa	41%	25%	34%	FC Barcelona
Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC	Atlético de Madridv Bayern Munich	28%	25%	47%	Bayern Munich
Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UTC	LASK Linzv ŠK Slovan Bratislava	44%	25%	31%	LASK Linz
Wed 4 Nov · 17:45 UTC	Fenerbahçe SKv Liverpool	23%	23%	54%	Liverpool
Wed 4 Nov · 17:45 UTC	AEK Athensv Real Madrid	21%	22%	57%	Real Madrid
Wed 4 Nov · 20:00 UTC	RC Lensv Como	38%	25%	37%	RC Lens
Wed 4 Nov · 20:00 UTC	SK Slavia Prahav Arsenal	16%	20%	64%	Arsenal
Wed 4 Nov · 20:00 UTC	Borussia Dortmundv Real Betis	43%	25%	32%	Borussia Dortmund
Wed 4 Nov · 20:00 UTC	FC Portov SSC Napoli	39%	25%	36%	FC Porto
Wed 4 Nov · 20:00 UTC	PSV Eindhovenv Club Brugge	42%	25%	33%	PSV Eindhoven
Wed 4 Nov · 20:00 UTC	RB Leipzigv Manchester City	25%	24%	51%	Manchester City
Wed 4 Nov · 20:00 UTC	Viking FKv Sabah FA	47%	25%	29%	Viking FK

Every club, every outcome36 clubs

Every club, every outcome

Expected league-phase points, finishing range and odds for each landing spot.

How this is measured

The top eight (straight to the round of 16), the top 24 (alive in the knockouts), the quarter-finals and the trophy. “Finish” is the median simulated position with the 5th-95th percentile range.

Sort by

Paris Saint-Germain

>99.9%

xPts 18.5 · Finish 3 (1-11)

Arsenal

99.8%

xPts 16.9 · Finish 5 (1-15)

Bayern Munich

97.8%

xPts 14.5 · Finish 9 (2-21)

Real Madrid

99.9%

xPts 18.2 · Finish 3 (1-12)

Manchester City

97.3%

xPts 14.5 · Finish 9 (2-22)

FC Barcelona

98.2%

xPts 14.8 · Finish 8 (2-21)

Aston Villa

99.9%

xPts 16.8 · Finish 5 (1-15)

Liverpool

99.9%

xPts 17.4 · Finish 4 (1-15)

Internazionale

85.2%

xPts 11.8 · Finish 16 (6-29)

Atlético de Madrid

88.1%

xPts 12.3 · Finish 14 (5-28)

Borussia Dortmund

90.3%

xPts 12.8 · Finish 14 (4-27)

Real Betis

99.3%

xPts 15.6 · Finish 8 (2-19)

Club
Paris Saint-Germain	18.5	3 (1-11)	90.7%	>99.9%	71.8%	16.9%
Arsenal	16.9	5 (1-15)	75.9%	99.8%	65.7%	14.7%
Bayern Munich	14.5	9 (2-21)	49.7%	97.8%	59.7%	13.4%
Real Madrid	18.2	3 (1-12)	86.1%	99.9%	57.8%	7.4%
Manchester City	14.5	9 (2-22)	46.9%	97.3%	49.8%	7.2%
FC Barcelona	14.8	8 (2-21)	51.6%	98.2%	49.6%	7.2%
Aston Villa	16.8	5 (1-15)	75.8%	99.9%	55.1%	6.8%
Liverpool	17.4	4 (1-15)	78.7%	99.9%	54.6%	6.3%
Internazionale	11.8	16 (6-29)	14.9%	85.2%	31.7%	4%
Atlético de Madrid	12.3	14 (5-28)	18.3%	88.1%	28.3%	2.4%
Borussia Dortmund	12.8	14 (4-27)	20.8%	90.3%	27.2%	2.1%
Real Betis	15.6	8 (2-19)	52.8%	99.3%	33.5%	1.7%
AS Roma	11.0	18 (6-30)	10.1%	78.1%	20.2%	1.6%
Manchester United	10.2	21 (8-32)	6%	67%	18.1%	1.4%
Sporting Clube de Portugal	12.4	15 (4-28)	19.8%	89%	23%	1.3%
SSC Napoli	10.8	19 (7-31)	7.4%	75%	17.8%	1.1%
VfB Stuttgart	13.4	12 (3-25)	28.6%	94.4%	20.7%	0.7%
Club Brugge	12.4	15 (4-27)	19.2%	88.6%	17.3%	0.6%
Como	11.8	16 (5-28)	15.2%	86.7%	15%	0.5%
PSV Eindhoven	10.9	19 (7-31)	8.2%	74.4%	14.2%	0.5%
Villarreal	10.0	21 (9-32)	4.4%	66.8%	10.2%	0.5%
FC Porto	7.8	27 (14-35)	0.7%	37.1%	8%	0.4%
RB Leipzig	9.9	23 (9-33)	3.6%	58.5%	9.8%	0.4%
Galatasaray SK	9.0	25 (12-34)	1.8%	47.7%	6.4%	0.3%
Feyenoord	9.2	25 (11-34)	2.3%	49.9%	5.8%	0.2%
FK Bodø/Glimt	9.5	24 (10-34)	2.9%	53.3%	6.1%	0.2%
Lille OSC	6.8	30 (16-36)	0.3%	22.8%	3.3%	0.1%
RC Lens	8.8	26 (12-34)	1.7%	44.2%	5.5%	0.1%
Fenerbahçe SK	8.2	27 (14-35)	0.7%	34.9%	3.4%	0.1%
AEK Athens	8.2	28 (14-35)	1%	34.4%	3%	<0.1%
SK Slavia Praha	5.3	33 (22-36)	0.1%	9%	0.8%	<0.1%
Viking FK	6.5	31 (18-36)	0.1%	19.4%	0.9%	<0.1%
FC Shakhtar Donetsk	9.4	23 (10-33)	2.9%	56.2%	3.4%	<0.1%
LASK Linz	8.2	27 (14-35)	0.8%	37.1%	1.5%	0%
ŠK Slovan Bratislava	4.6	35 (25-36)	0%	4.8%	0.1%	0%
Sabah FA	6.5	31 (20-36)	0.1%	14.9%	0.5%	0%

Get the data: · raw JSON on GitHub · the frozen call ledger

Where these numbers come from

Each club's strength blends two signals that a study of every European tie since 1955 (28,000 matches, era-cross-validated) found to carry all the usable preseason information: this site's own club rating from the season just finished, and the strength of the club's league. Held out from training entirely, the two completed league-phase seasons: 70.6% of decisive matches called, against 62.9% for the formula it replaced. No betting-market blend yet, no mid-season form fold, and UEFA's knockout draw options are approximated.

How the model works

TestedEach drawn league phase conserves its games, fills every knockout stage once and never crowns a club outside the top 24 under property tests; the strength backtest is in the repository, not on the site. About the tiers

Each club's strength blends two signals that a study of every European tie since 1955 (28,000 matches, era-cross-validated) found to carry all the usable preseason information: this site's own club rating from the season just finished, and the strength of the club's league. Five-year club coefficients turned out to add nothing once those are in the model, and raw domestic goal ratios predict close to nothing across leagues. Dominating a mid-tier league is not evidence of European strength. The blend's weights come from a Poisson fit on three decades of group-stage goals; its overall spread is calibrated so that replaying 2004-2024 with each season's real groups makes the actual champions as likely as possible.

The 8 drawn fixtures per club are simulated with Poisson goals (finished matches replay their real result), the top 8 go straight to the round of 16, ranks 9-24 fight through the seeded play-off bands, and the bracket runs to a one-off final on neutral ground. Still absent, and said plainly: no betting-market blend, no mid-season form fold yet, and UEFA's knockout draw options are approximated. The full study and backtest live in the site's repository.

Discussed in

Four seasons, one ledger Essay on Substack · 9 Sept 2026