Champions League 2026-27

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10,000 simulated seasons of the drawn league phase and the seeded knockout that follows it: every club's road from the 36-team table to the final, replayed with real results as they land.

ucl-poisson-v2 · updated 2026-09-15T06:47:32Z · after 18 matches

The champion board

Share of simulated seasons each club lifts the trophy at the Metropolitano in Madrid.

1Paris Saint-Germain15.3%

2Bayern Munich14.9%

3Arsenal14.5%

4Manchester City7.2%

5FC Barcelona6.6%

6Real Madrid6.5%

7Aston Villa6%

8Liverpool6%

9Internazionale5%

10Manchester United2.7%

11Borussia Dortmund2.6%

12Atlético de Madrid2.4%

13AS Roma1.6%

14Sporting Clube de Portugal1.4%

15Real Betis1.3%

16SSC Napoli1.1%

17FC Porto1.1%

18VfB Stuttgart0.6%

19PSV Eindhoven0.6%

20RB Leipzig0.5%

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Every club, every outcome36 clubs

Every club, every outcome

Expected league-phase points, finishing range and odds for each landing spot.

How this is measured

The top eight (straight to the round of 16), the top 24 (alive in the knockouts), the quarter-finals and the trophy. “Finish” is the median simulated position with the 5th-95th percentile range.

Sort by

Paris Saint-Germain

97.6%

xPts 15.7 · Finish 6 (1-21)

Bayern Munich

98.5%

xPts 16.2 · Finish 5 (1-19)

Arsenal

98.2%

xPts 16.2 · Finish 6 (1-20)

Manchester City

95.5%

xPts 14.9 · Finish 8 (1-24)

FC Barcelona

95.7%

xPts 14.7 · Finish 8 (1-24)

Real Madrid

96.9%

xPts 15.5 · Finish 7 (1-22)

Aston Villa

96.1%

xPts 15.0 · Finish 8 (1-23)

Liverpool

96.2%

xPts 15.3 · Finish 8 (1-23)

Internazionale

87.7%

xPts 12.8 · Finish 13 (3-29)

Manchester United

88.7%

xPts 13.0 · Finish 12 (2-28)

Borussia Dortmund

90.2%

xPts 13.5 · Finish 12 (2-27)

Atlético de Madrid

76.4%

xPts 11.3 · Finish 17 (4-32)

Show all 36 clubs

AS Roma

76.1%

xPts 11.4 · Finish 18 (4-32)

Sporting Clube de Portugal

87.2%

xPts 12.9 · Finish 13 (3-29)

Real Betis

85.8%

xPts 12.7 · Finish 14 (3-29)

SSC Napoli

73.1%

xPts 11.0 · Finish 18 (5-33)

FC Porto

68.3%

xPts 10.6 · Finish 20 (6-33)

VfB Stuttgart

83.1%

xPts 12.4 · Finish 15 (3-30)

PSV Eindhoven

66.4%

xPts 10.5 · Finish 20 (5-33)

RB Leipzig

51.5%

xPts 9.3 · Finish 24 (8-35)

Villarreal

55.3%

xPts 9.3 · Finish 23 (8-34)

Lille OSC

51.4%

xPts 9.0 · Finish 24 (8-35)

Como

75.3%

xPts 11.3 · Finish 18 (4-32)

Club Brugge

47.7%

xPts 8.8 · Finish 25 (9-35)

RC Lens

73.6%

xPts 11.4 · Finish 18 (4-32)

Galatasaray SK

39.8%

xPts 8.2 · Finish 27 (11-35)

Feyenoord

43.7%

xPts 8.7 · Finish 26 (10-35)

Fenerbahçe SK

54.7%

xPts 9.5 · Finish 23 (7-34)

FK Bodø/Glimt

43.3%

xPts 8.8 · Finish 26 (9-35)

AEK Athens

61.8%

xPts 10.3 · Finish 22 (6-33)

Viking FK

22.2%

xPts 6.6 · Finish 31 (16-36)

FC Shakhtar Donetsk

41.1%

xPts 8.4 · Finish 26 (11-35)

SK Slavia Praha

28.4%

xPts 7.2 · Finish 29 (14-36)

LASK Linz

24.9%

xPts 6.8 · Finish 30 (15-36)

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

16.6%

xPts 6.2 · Finish 32 (18-36)

Sabah FA

10.9%

xPts 5.4 · Finish 33 (20-36)

Club
Paris Saint-Germain	15.7	6 (1-21)	64%	97.6%	62.2%	15.3%
Bayern Munich	16.2	5 (1-19)	69.8%	98.5%	63.5%	14.9%
Arsenal	16.2	6 (1-20)	66%	98.2%	61.9%	14.5%
Manchester City	14.9	8 (1-24)	52.2%	95.5%	50.5%	7.2%
FC Barcelona	14.7	8 (1-24)	51.3%	95.7%	48.9%	6.6%
Real Madrid	15.5	7 (1-22)	58.3%	96.9%	49.5%	6.5%
Aston Villa	15.0	8 (1-23)	51.7%	96.1%	47.8%	6%
Liverpool	15.3	8 (1-23)	55%	96.2%	47.2%	6%
Internazionale	12.8	13 (3-29)	30.4%	87.7%	38%	5%
Manchester United	13.0	12 (2-28)	32.3%	88.7%	31.8%	2.7%
Borussia Dortmund	13.5	12 (2-27)	33.8%	90.2%	30.9%	2.6%
Atlético de Madrid	11.3	17 (4-32)	17.1%	76.4%	25.5%	2.4%
AS Roma	11.4	18 (4-32)	17.1%	76.1%	21.7%	1.6%
Sporting Clube de Portugal	12.9	13 (3-29)	29.4%	87.2%	25.1%	1.4%
Real Betis	12.7	14 (3-29)	25.3%	85.8%	23.5%	1.3%
SSC Napoli	11.0	18 (5-33)	14.2%	73.1%	18.9%	1.1%
FC Porto	10.6	20 (6-33)	11.6%	68.3%	16.6%	1.1%
VfB Stuttgart	12.4	15 (3-30)	24.3%	83.1%	18.6%	0.6%
PSV Eindhoven	10.5	20 (5-33)	11.5%	66.4%	14.4%	0.6%
RB Leipzig	9.3	24 (8-35)	5.5%	51.5%	9.3%	0.5%
Villarreal	9.3	23 (8-34)	6.2%	55.3%	9.9%	0.4%
Lille OSC	9.0	24 (8-35)	5.1%	51.4%	9.4%	0.3%
Como	11.3	18 (4-32)	16.2%	75.3%	14.2%	0.3%
Club Brugge	8.8	25 (9-35)	4.4%	47.7%	8.2%	0.3%
RC Lens	11.4	18 (4-32)	14.9%	73.6%	12.9%	0.3%
Galatasaray SK	8.2	27 (11-35)	2.9%	39.8%	5.9%	0.2%
Feyenoord	8.7	26 (10-35)	3.8%	43.7%	6%	0.1%
Fenerbahçe SK	9.5	23 (7-34)	6.7%	54.7%	6.7%	0.1%
FK Bodø/Glimt	8.8	26 (9-35)	4%	43.3%	5.4%	0.1%
AEK Athens	10.3	22 (6-33)	8.7%	61.8%	7%	0.1%
Viking FK	6.6	31 (16-36)	0.6%	22.2%	1.3%	<0.1%
FC Shakhtar Donetsk	8.4	26 (11-35)	3%	41.1%	2.9%	<0.1%
SK Slavia Praha	7.2	29 (14-36)	1.2%	28.4%	2.4%	<0.1%
LASK Linz	6.8	30 (15-36)	1.2%	24.9%	1.2%	0%
ŠK Slovan Bratislava	6.2	32 (18-36)	0.5%	16.6%	0.5%	0%
Sabah FA	5.4	33 (20-36)	0.2%	10.9%	0.3%	0%

Get the data: league-phase table as CSV · raw JSON on GitHub · the frozen call ledger

Where these numbers come from

Each club's strength blends two signals that a study of every European tie since 1955 (28,000 matches, era-cross-validated) found to carry all the usable preseason information: this site's own club rating from the season just finished, and the strength of the club's league. Held out from training entirely, the two completed league-phase seasons: 70.6% of decisive matches called, against 62.9% for the formula it replaced. No betting-market blend yet, no mid-season form fold, and UEFA's knockout draw options are approximated.

How the model works

Each club's strength blends two signals that a study of every European tie since 1955 (28,000 matches, era-cross-validated) found to carry all the usable preseason information: this site's own club rating from the season just finished, and the strength of the club's league. Five-year club coefficients turned out to add nothing once those are in the model, and raw domestic goal ratios predict close to nothing across leagues. Dominating a mid-tier league is not evidence of European strength. The blend's weights come from a Poisson fit on three decades of group-stage goals; its overall spread is calibrated so that replaying 2004-2024 with each season's real groups makes the actual champions as likely as possible.

The 8 drawn fixtures per club are simulated with Poisson goals (finished matches replay their real result), the top 8 go straight to the round of 16, ranks 9-24 fight through the seeded play-off bands, and the bracket runs to a one-off final on neutral ground. Still absent, and said plainly: no betting-market blend, no mid-season form fold yet, and UEFA's knockout draw options are approximated. The full study and backtest live in the site's repository.