EuroLeague 2026-27

LIVE

Title, Final Four, playoff and play-in odds for all 20 clubs, refreshed daily.

net-rating prior · model-only · updated 2026-10-13 · after 40 of 380 games

Live forecast

Olympiacos BC has a 20.5% chance to win the EuroLeague

2.5ppover 7 days

20,000 simulations · field 29%

The race for the title

Share of simulated seasons each club wins the Final Four. Clubs under 1% are in the table below.

Olympiacos BC20.5%

Valencia Basket16.8%

Panathinaikos BC14.8%

BC Žalgiris10.9%

Real Madrid Baloncesto7.9%

Fenerbahçe Basketball6.2%

Hapoel Tel Aviv BC5.5%

KK Crvena zvezda4.8%

FC Barcelona Basquet4.1%

KK Partizan2%

Dubai Basketball1.7%

The races still open10 clubs

Every club the model puts between 15% and 85% to reach the playoffs (straight in or through the play-in), closest to a coin flip first.

KK Crvena zvezda2-2

51%to make the playoffsToss-up

30.7% to land in the play-in · 20.2 projected wins

FC Barcelona Basquet2-2

47%to make the playoffsToss-up

30.6% to land in the play-in · 19.9 projected wins

Hapoel Tel Aviv BC2-2

55%to make the playoffsToss-up

30.1% to land in the play-in · 20.7 projected wins

Real Madrid Baloncesto1-3

61%to make the playoffsLean

30% to land in the play-in · 21.0 projected wins

Fenerbahçe Basketball3-1

63%to make the playoffsLean

28.3% to land in the play-in · 21.5 projected wins

KK Partizan3-1

35%to make the playoffsUnlikely

28.5% to land in the play-in · 18.9 projected wins

Dubai Basketball2-2

28%to make the playoffsUnlikely

26.2% to land in the play-in · 18.2 projected wins

BC Žalgiris2-2

76%to make the playoffsLikely

24.1% to land in the play-in · 22.7 projected wins

Virtus Bologna2-2

21%to make the playoffsUnlikely

21.6% to land in the play-in · 17.2 projected wins

Beşiktaş Basketbol2-2

17%to make the playoffsUnlikely

19.6% to land in the play-in · 16.7 projected wins

The eight the model expects8 clubs

The clubs reaching the quarter-finals most often: six go straight in from the top of the table, two come through the play-in. Ordered by those odds, not by the standings.

Olympiacos BC92.8%

Valencia Basket91.7%

Panathinaikos BC88.5%

BC Žalgiris76.4%

Fenerbahçe Basketball63.5%

Real Madrid Baloncesto61.1%

Hapoel Tel Aviv BC54.9%

KK Crvena zvezda50.6%

Every club, every outcome20 clubs

Record, projected wins with the P10 to P90 range, and the odds of each landing spot.

Regular season

Sort by

Olympiacos BC

SolidTitle 20.5% · F4 64.4%

92.8%

3-1 · proj 25.5 W

Valencia Basket

SolidTitle 16.8% · F4 59.4%

91.7%

4-0 · proj 25.3 W

Panathinaikos BC

LikelyTitle 14.8% · F4 54.9%

88.5%

4-0 · proj 24.6 W

BC Žalgiris

LikelyTitle 10.9% · F4 42%

76.4%

2-2 · proj 22.7 W

Real Madrid Baloncesto

LeanTitle 7.9% · F4 31.3%

61.1%

1-3 · proj 21.0 W

Fenerbahçe Basketball

LeanTitle 6.2% · F4 29.3%

63.5%

3-1 · proj 21.5 W

Hapoel Tel Aviv BC

Toss-upTitle 5.5% · F4 24.8%

54.9%

2-2 · proj 20.7 W

KK Crvena zvezda

Toss-upTitle 4.8% · F4 22.4%

50.6%

2-2 · proj 20.2 W

FC Barcelona Basquet

Toss-upTitle 4.1% · F4 20%

47.3%

2-2 · proj 19.9 W

KK Partizan

UnlikelyTitle 2% · F4 11.1%

34.8%

3-1 · proj 18.9 W

Dubai Basketball

UnlikelyTitle 1.7% · F4 9.4%

28.2%

2-2 · proj 18.2 W

Virtus Bologna

UnlikelyTitle 1% · F4 6.1%

20.5%

2-2 · proj 17.2 W

Beşiktaş Basketbol

UnlikelyTitle 0.8% · F4 4.8%

17.2%

2-2 · proj 16.7 W

Paris Basketball

OutTitle 0.8% · F4 4.4%

14.2%

1-3 · proj 16.1 W

Olimpia Milano

OutTitle 0.7% · F4 4.3%

14%

1-3 · proj 16.2 W

Maccabi Tel Aviv BC

OutTitle 0.6% · F4 3.2%

10.7%

1-3 · proj 15.5 W

Anadolu Efes

OutTitle 0.4% · F4 3.1%

11.8%

1-3 · proj 15.8 W

FC Bayern München Basketball

OutTitle 0.4% · F4 2.7%

10.4%

1-3 · proj 15.5 W

ASVEL Basket

OutTitle 0.2% · F4 1.4%

6.7%

2-2 · proj 14.6 W

Saski Baskonia

OutTitle 0.1% · F4 1.1%

4.9%

1-3 · proj 13.9 W

Club
Olympiacos BC	3-1	25.5	21–30	10.8%	92.8%4.7pp	64.4%6pp	20.5%2.5pp
Valencia Basket	4-0	25.3	21–30	12%	91.7%3.7pp	59.4%3.4pp	16.8%0.8pp
Panathinaikos BC	4-0	24.6	20–29	15%	88.5%6.9pp	54.9%6.2pp	14.8%1.6pp
BC Žalgiris	2-2	22.7	18–27	24.1%	76.4%8.8pp	42%5.4pp	10.9%1.7pp
Real Madrid Baloncesto	1-3	21.0	16–26	30%	61.1%5.3pp	31.3%2.3pp	7.9%0.4pp
Fenerbahçe Basketball	3-1	21.5	17–26	28.3%	63.5%8.3pp	29.3%8pp	6.2%3pp
Hapoel Tel Aviv BC	2-2	20.7	16–25	30.1%	54.9%5pp	24.8%3.8pp	5.5%1.2pp
KK Crvena zvezda	2-2	20.2	16–25	30.7%	50.6%16.1pp	22.4%8.1pp	4.8%1.7pp
FC Barcelona Basquet	2-2	19.9	15–25	30.6%	47.3%9pp	20%5.9pp	4.1%2pp
KK Partizan	3-1	18.9	14–24	28.5%	34.8%3.5pp	11.1%2.2pp	2%0.2pp
Dubai Basketball	2-2	18.2	14–23	26.2%	28.2%15.2pp	9.4%7.5pp	1.7%1.5pp
Virtus Bologna	2-2	17.2	13–22	21.6%	20.5%6.7pp	6.1%2pp	1%0.3pp
Beşiktaş Basketbol	2-2	16.7	12–21	19.6%	17.2%6.4pp	4.8%1.6pp	0.8%0.3pp
Paris Basketball	1-3	16.1	11–21	16.8%	14.2%4.7pp	4.4%2.1pp	0.8%0.3pp
Olimpia Milano	1-3	16.2	11–21	16.8%	14%6.5pp	4.3%2.6pp	0.7%0.4pp
Maccabi Tel Aviv BC	1-3	15.5	11–20	13.6%	10.7%3.9pp	3.2%1.3pp	0.6%0.3pp
Anadolu Efes	1-3	15.8	11–21	14.7%	11.8%5.1pp	3.1%1.9pp	0.4%0.5pp
FC Bayern München Basketball	1-3	15.5	11–20	13.1%	10.4%5.4pp	2.7%2.1pp	0.4%0.3pp
ASVEL Basket	2-2	14.6	10–19	9.9%	6.7%3pp	1.4%0.6pp	0.2%0pp
Saski Baskonia	1-3	13.9	9–19	7.8%	4.9%2.9pp	1.1%0.8pp	0.1%0.1pp

Get the data: season table as CSV · raw JSON on GitHub

Where these numbers come from

Ratings start from last season's net rating per game in the EuroLeague, shrunk toward the league average, then replayed forward 20,000 times against every remaining game on the real 38-round schedule, the play-in, the best-of-five quarter-finals and the Final Four. Last generated 2026-10-13, after 40 games played. Games from the league's own feed (api-live.euroleague.net).

How the model works

TestedEach drawn season conserves its games, fills every playoff slot once and never crowns an eliminated club under property tests; the season odds have no published backtest. About the tiers

Each club's rating is an expected margin against an average club on a neutral floor. It starts from last season's regular-season net rating, keeping 55% of it because rosters turn over; a club new to the league (BES) starts three points below average. This season's real margins fold in at a weight that climbs with games played. Every game is a normal margin with a 3.3-point home edge and an 11.6-point spread (HFA and SIGMA_GAME in build_euroleague_sim.py), both measured on last season's 380 games.

The format is the real one. First to sixth go straight to the quarter-finals; seventh to tenth play in (seventh hosts eighth for the seven seed, the loser hosts the winner of ninth against tenth for the eight seed); quarter-finals are best of five with the higher seed hosting games one, two and five; the Final Four is on a neutral floor, first against fourth quarter-final winners and second against third. Ties are broken on head-to-head margin, then overall margin.

What it does not know. No injuries, no roster moves, no travel, and no championship market yet: unlike the NBA board there is no futures source for the EuroLeague, so this is a model-only prior until results replace it.