Premier League 2026-27

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Title, top-five and relegation odds for every club, from simulations of the remaining fixtures.

poisson-v2-v3 · updated 2026-11-03 · after 89 matches

89 graded−1.2%vs market

Live forecast

Arsenal has a 64.9% chance to win the Premier League

15.2ppover 7 days

20,000 simulated seasons · site data blended with the market · field 0%

The title race

Share of simulated seasons each club finishes first.

1Arsenal64.9%15.2pp

2Manchester City31.2%15.3pp

3Liverpool1.5%1pp

4Brighton & Hove Albion1.5%0.8pp

5Chelsea0.9%0.3pp

The relegation battle20 clubs

Share of simulated seasons each club finishes in the bottom three.

1Hull City76.1%1.8pp

2Coventry City63.6%11.4pp

3Sunderland60.7%7.4pp

4Ipswich Town43.2%0.4pp

5Crystal Palace24.2%5.8pp

6Nottingham Forest13.1%2.9pp

7Fulham8.8%1.3pp

8Everton3.9%0.2pp

9Leeds United2.3%0.6pp

10Manchester United1.3%0.4pp

11Tottenham Hotspur1%1.6pp

The next fixtures, called11 fixtures

The next fixtures, called

Win-draw-win probabilities for the upcoming round.

How this is measured

Market odds join each column once the books post them. Every prediction is frozen when first published and graded against the real result below.

Newcastle United

v Everton

Mon 2 Nov

Model 52%/25%/23%

Newcastle United

Everton

v Coventry City

Fri 6 Nov

Model 61%/23%/16%

Everton

Arsenal

v Hull City

Sat 7 Nov

Model 93%/6%/2%

Arsenal

Fulham

v Newcastle United

Sat 7 Nov

Model 35%/25%/40%

Newcastle United

Leeds United

v Tottenham Hotspur

Sat 7 Nov

Model 41%/27%/31%

Leeds United

Nottingham Forest

v Manchester City

Sat 7 Nov

Model 14%/20%/65%

Manchester City

Brighton & Hove Albion

v Brentford

Sun 8 Nov

Model 54%/22%/24%

Brighton & Hove Albion

Crystal Palace

v Liverpool

Sun 8 Nov

Model 19%/22%/60%

Liverpool

Ipswich Town

v AFC Bournemouth

Sun 8 Nov

Model 26%/22%/53%

AFC Bournemouth

Manchester United

v Aston Villa

Sun 8 Nov

Model 50%/24%/26%

Manchester United

Sunderland

v Chelsea

Sun 8 Nov

Model 17%/21%/61%

Chelsea

Date	Fixture	Home	Draw	Away	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	Newcastle Unitedv Everton	52%	25%	23%	Newcastle United
Fri 6 Nov	Evertonv Coventry City	61%	23%	16%	Everton
Sat 7 Nov	Arsenalv Hull City	93%	6%	2%	Arsenal
Sat 7 Nov	Fulhamv Newcastle United	35%	25%	40%	Newcastle United
Sat 7 Nov	Leeds Unitedv Tottenham Hotspur	41%	27%	31%	Leeds United
Sat 7 Nov	Nottingham Forestv Manchester City	14%	20%	65%	Manchester City
Sun 8 Nov	Brighton & Hove Albionv Brentford	54%	22%	24%	Brighton & Hove Albion
Sun 8 Nov	Crystal Palacev Liverpool	19%	22%	60%	Liverpool
Sun 8 Nov	Ipswich Townv AFC Bournemouth	26%	22%	53%	AFC Bournemouth
Sun 8 Nov	Manchester Unitedv Aston Villa	50%	24%	26%	Manchester United
Sun 8 Nov	Sunderlandv Chelsea	17%	21%	61%	Chelsea

How the model is doing10 fixtures

Picks

45/89

match calls correct

Model Brier

0.6226

lower is better; 0.667 = guessing

Market Brier

0.615

the benchmark to beat (79 priced)

Liverpool

v Arsenal

Pick: Arsenal · Brier 0.446

Arsenal ✓

Tottenham Hotspur

v Crystal Palace

Pick: Tottenham Hotspur · Brier 0.357

Tottenham Hotspur ✓

Manchester City

v Brighton & Hove Albion

Pick: Manchester City · Brier 1.242

Brighton & Hove Albion ✕

Hull City

v Ipswich Town

Pick: Ipswich Town · Brier 0.867

Draw ✕

Coventry City

v Sunderland

Pick: Coventry City · Brier 0.566

Coventry City ✓

Chelsea

v Manchester United

Pick: Chelsea · Brier 0.353

Chelsea ✓

Brentford

v Nottingham Forest

Pick: Brentford · Brier 0.352

Brentford ✓

Aston Villa

v Fulham

Pick: Aston Villa · Brier 0.885

Draw ✕

AFC Bournemouth

v Leeds United

Pick: AFC Bournemouth · Brier 0.447

AFC Bournemouth ✓

Sunderland

v Leeds United

Pick: Leeds United · Brier 0.778

Draw ✕

Date	Fixture	Our pick	Result	Brier
Sun 1 Nov	Liverpoolv Arsenal	Arsenal ✓	Arsenal	0.446
Sat 31 Oct	Tottenham Hotspurv Crystal Palace	Tottenham Hotspur ✓	Tottenham Hotspur	0.357
Sat 31 Oct	Manchester Cityv Brighton & Hove Albion	Manchester City ✕	Brighton & Hove Albion	1.242
Sat 31 Oct	Hull Cityv Ipswich Town	Ipswich Town ✕	Draw	0.867
Sat 31 Oct	Coventry Cityv Sunderland	Coventry City ✓	Coventry City	0.566
Sat 31 Oct	Chelseav Manchester United	Chelsea ✓	Chelsea	0.353
Sat 31 Oct	Brentfordv Nottingham Forest	Brentford ✓	Brentford	0.352
Sat 31 Oct	Aston Villav Fulham	Aston Villa ✕	Draw	0.885
Sat 31 Oct	AFC Bournemouthv Leeds United	AFC Bournemouth ✓	AFC Bournemouth	0.447
Sun 25 Oct	Sunderlandv Leeds United	Leeds United ✕	Draw	0.778

Every club, every outcome20 clubs

Every club, every outcome

Expected points, finishing range and odds for each landing spot.

How this is measured

The title, the top four (automatic Champions League), the top five/seven (Europe) and the bottom three. “Finish” is the median simulated position with the 5th-95th percentile range.

Sort by

Arsenal

Solid

99.6%

xPts 89.6 (81-98)

Manchester City

Solid

97.9%

xPts 84.6 (75-94)

Liverpool

Lean

66.3%

xPts 71.3 (61-81)

Brighton & Hove Albion

Lean

61%

xPts 70.2 (60-81)

Chelsea

Toss-up

47.2%

xPts 67.9 (57-78)

Brentford

Out

7.4%

xPts 56.7 (46-67)

Newcastle United

Out

5.7%

xPts 55.0 (44-66)

Aston Villa

Out

4.6%

xPts 54.5 (44-65)

AFC Bournemouth

Out

4.1%

xPts 54.2 (44-65)

Manchester United

Out

2.4%

xPts 51.5 (41-62)

Tottenham Hotspur

Out

2.1%

xPts 51.5 (41-62)

Leeds United

Out

0.8%

xPts 48.3 (38-58)

Club
ArsenalSolid	89.6(81–98)	1(1-3)	64.9%15.2pp	99.6%0.2pp	99.9%	>99.9%	0%0pp
Manchester CitySolid	84.6(75–94)	2(1-4)	31.2%15.3pp	97.9%1.2pp	99.5%	99.9%	0%0pp
LiverpoolLean	71.3(61–81)	4(2-7)	1.5%1pp	66.3%10.3pp	83.5%	95.4%	0%0pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionLean	70.2(60–81)	4(2-8)	1.5%0.8pp	61%10.6pp	78.9%	93.5%	0%0pp
ChelseaToss-up	67.9(57–78)	5(2-9)	0.8%0.3pp	47.2%5.8pp	69.6%	89.2%	<0.1%0pp
BrentfordOut	56.7(46–67)	8(4-14)	0.0%0pp	7.4%1.1pp	17.2%	46.1%	0.2%0.4pp
Newcastle UnitedOut	55.0(44–66)	9(4-15)	0.0%0pp	5.7%1.1pp	13%	36.5%	0.5%0.1pp
Aston VillaOut	54.5(44–65)	9(5-15)	0.0%0pp	4.6%2.4pp	11%	33.3%	0.5%0.1pp
AFC BournemouthOut	54.2(44–65)	9(5-15)	0.0%0pp	4.1%0.7pp	10.3%	33.1%	0.6%0.7pp
Manchester UnitedOut	51.5(41–62)	10(5-16)	0.0%0pp	2.4%2.5pp	6.3%	22.7%	1.3%0.4pp
Tottenham HotspurOut	51.5(41–62)	10(5-16)	0.0%0pp	2.1%0.4pp	5.7%	21.4%	1%1.6pp
Leeds UnitedOut	48.3(38–58)	11(6-17)	0.0%0pp	0.8%0.9pp	2.3%	11.7%	2.3%0.6pp
EvertonOut	46.9(37–57)	12(7-17)	0.0%0pp	0.6%0.1pp	1.8%	9.1%	3.9%0.2pp
FulhamOut	43.2(33–53)	14(8-18)	0.0%0pp	0.2%0.1pp	0.6%	4.1%	8.8%1.3pp
Nottingham ForestOut	41.4(31–52)	14(9-19)	0.0%0pp	0.1%0.2pp	0.4%	2.5%	13.1%2.9pp
Crystal PalaceOut	38.6(29–49)	16(10-19)	0.0%0pp	<0.1%0.1pp	0.1%	1%	24.2%5.8pp
Ipswich TownOut	34.8(26–44)	17(12-20)	0.0%0pp	<0.1%0pp	<0.1%	0.3%	43.2%0.4pp
SunderlandOut	31.4(22–41)	18(13-20)	0.0%0pp	0%0pp	<0.1%	0.1%	60.7%7.4pp
Coventry CityOut	31.0(22–40)	18(14-20)	0.0%0pp	0%0pp	0%	0.1%	63.6%11.4pp
Hull CityOut	28.8(21–37)	19(15-20)	0.0%0pp	0%0pp	0%	<0.1%	76.1%1.8pp

Get the data: · raw JSON on GitHub

Citizen of Nowhere Picks

Call every game of the matchweek blind, rank your confidence, and see whether you out-predict this model week after week. The model plays its own card, graded by the same rules.

Play Citizen of Nowhere Picks

Where these numbers come from

Ratings blend this site's own club data with a market signal, replayed forward 20,000 times against the real remaining 2026-27 season. Last generated 2026-11-03, after 89 matches played. Fixture picks blend the model with the posted line and are graded against results above; the Brier scores on this page and on the Ledger use that same graded record.

How the model works

TestedEach drawn season conserves its games, fills every playoff slot once and never crowns an eliminated club under property tests; the season odds have no published backtest. Its weekly picks are graded in public in the Ledger. About the tiers

Each club's attack and defence are goal rates per game from its last three league seasons (2025-26, 2024-25, 2023-24), recency-weighted, with the current campaign's real goals folded in as it plays out. The promoted clubs' Championship rates are translated with factors calibrated on every promoted side in this site's hub archive (75 club-seasons: attack ×0.637, goals conceded ×1.839). On top of the site data sits a market signal: de-vigged match odds (football-data.co.uk closing/posted odds (E0/E1)) fitted into team ratings and blended in at weight 0.45. Played matches count as real results; every remaining fixture is simulated with Poisson goals (league scoring rate 1.4423 per team-game, home advantage ×1.11), each simulated season drawing every club's strength from a distribution (σ 0.15) rather than a fixed number. Fixture picks blend model and market 50/50 and are graded against results above. Site-data goal rates blended with market-implied team ratings; actual results folded in and only the remaining fixtures simulated, with correlated home-advantage and per-team season noise sized to an adaptive sigma and common random numbers.

Uncertainty shrinks as the season does - the spread of outcomes each simulated season draws from narrows week by week as fewer matches remain, and widens back out for a club the stats and the market disagree about most. Each simulated season also draws one correlated home-advantage error for the whole league and one for each club, rather than treating every match as its own coin flip - real campaigns run hot or cold together, not independently.

Discussed in

Four seasons, one ledger Essay on Substack · 9 Sept 2026

The title race

The next fixtures, called

Every club, every outcome

🎯 Citizen of Nowhere Picks

Where these numbers come from

Discussed in

Citizen of Nowhere Picks