NHL 2026-27

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Stanley Cup, conference, division and playoff odds for all 32 clubs, refreshed daily.

regressed goal differential · blended (weight 0.33 of 0.35 max, Polymarket futures, 32 teams) · updated 2026-10-13 · after 89 games

Live forecast

The Colorado Avalanche have a 15% chance to win the Stanley Cup

2.3ppover 7 days

20,000 simulations · field 50%

The race for the Stanley Cup

Share of simulated seasons each club wins the whole thing.

Every club under 1.5% is left off; they are in the division tables below.

Colorado Avalanche15%

Tampa Bay Lightning11.4%

Carolina Hurricanes10.4%

Vegas Golden Knights7%

Dallas Stars6.6%

Edmonton Oilers6.1%

Minnesota Wild5.5%

Washington Capitals5.1%

Ottawa Senators5.1%

Utah Mammoth3.2%

Pittsburgh Penguins1.9%

Anaheim Ducks1.7%

The races still open23 teams

Every club the model puts between 15% and 85% to reach the playoffs, closest to a coin flip first.

Why this matters

This is where the season is actually being decided, and where the model is most likely to be wrong.

Pittsburgh PenguinsMetropolitan

51%to make the playoffsToss-up

7.7% to win the division · 94.1 projected points

Seattle KrakenPacific

49%to make the playoffsToss-up

7.1% to win the division · 92.6 projected points

Montreal CanadiensAtlantic

48%to make the playoffsToss-up

6.8% to win the division · 93.9 projected points

Boston BruinsAtlantic

53%to make the playoffsToss-up

7.4% to win the division · 94.8 projected points

Toronto Maple LeafsAtlantic

45%to make the playoffsToss-up

5.9% to win the division · 93.3 projected points

Florida PanthersAtlantic

45%to make the playoffsToss-up

6.9% to win the division · 93.3 projected points

Buffalo SabresAtlantic

43%to make the playoffsToss-up

4.7% to win the division · 92.8 projected points

Winnipeg JetsCentral

57%to make the playoffsToss-up

6.7% to win the division · 95.3 projected points

Columbus Blue JacketsMetropolitan

42%to make the playoffsToss-up

5.6% to win the division · 92.3 projected points

Anaheim DucksPacific

60%to make the playoffsToss-up

11.4% to win the division · 95.0 projected points

Los Angeles KingsPacific

39%to make the playoffsUnlikely

4.3% to win the division · 90.5 projected points

New York RangersMetropolitan

62%to make the playoffsLean

13% to win the division · 96.4 projected points

St. Louis BluesCentral

34%to make the playoffsUnlikely

2.1% to win the division · 90.3 projected points

New Jersey DevilsMetropolitan

30%to make the playoffsUnlikely

3% to win the division · 89.2 projected points

Utah MammothCentral

71%to make the playoffsLean

11.3% to win the division · 98.3 projected points

New York IslandersMetropolitan

28%to make the playoffsUnlikely

2.3% to win the division · 88.7 projected points

Washington CapitalsMetropolitan

73%to make the playoffsLean

19.8% to win the division · 99.0 projected points

Nashville PredatorsCentral

27%to make the playoffsUnlikely

1.4% to win the division · 88.6 projected points

San Jose SharksPacific

27%to make the playoffsUnlikely

3.5% to win the division · 86.7 projected points

Dallas StarsCentral

78%to make the playoffsLikely

16.6% to win the division · 100.5 projected points

Ottawa SenatorsAtlantic

79%to make the playoffsLikely

24.4% to win the division · 101.1 projected points

Minnesota WildCentral

82%to make the playoffsLikely

19.3% to win the division · 101.4 projected points

Detroit Red WingsAtlantic

15%to make the playoffsUnlikely

0.8% to win the division · 85.5 projected points

The field the model expects16 teams

The eight clubs from each conference the model has reaching the playoffs most often: the top three in each division plus two wild cards. Ordered by those odds, not by the standings.

Eastern Conference

Carolina Hurricanes

Solid

90.3%

playoffs · Cup 10.4%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Likely

88.2%

playoffs · Cup 11.4%

Ottawa Senators

Likely

78.6%

playoffs · Cup 5.1%

Washington Capitals

Lean

72.6%

playoffs · Cup 5.1%

New York Rangers

Lean

62.3%

playoffs · Cup 2.7%

Boston Bruins

Toss-up

53%

playoffs · Cup 2%

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toss-up

50.5%

playoffs · Cup 1.9%

Montreal Canadiens

Toss-up

48.4%

playoffs · Cup 2%

Eastern Conference	Playoffs	Conf	Cup
Carolina HurricanesMetropolitan · 105.1 pts	90.3%	19.1%	10.4%
Tampa Bay LightningAtlantic · 104.9 pts	88.2%	19.7%	11.4%
Ottawa SenatorsAtlantic · 101.1 pts	78.5%	10.6%	5.1%
Washington CapitalsMetropolitan · 99.0 pts	72.5%	10.5%	5.1%
New York RangersMetropolitan · 96.4 pts	62.3%	6%	2.7%
Boston BruinsAtlantic · 94.8 pts	53.0%	4.5%	2%
Pittsburgh PenguinsMetropolitan · 94.1 pts	50.5%	4.5%	1.9%
Montreal CanadiensAtlantic · 93.9 pts	48.4%	4.7%	2%

Western Conference

Colorado Avalanche

Solid

91.6%

playoffs · Cup 15%

Edmonton Oilers

Likely

86.7%

playoffs · Cup 6.1%

Vegas Golden Knights

Likely

86.7%

playoffs · Cup 7%

Minnesota Wild

Likely

81.6%

playoffs · Cup 5.5%

Dallas Stars

Likely

78.2%

playoffs · Cup 6.6%

Utah Mammoth

Lean

70.8%

playoffs · Cup 3.2%

Anaheim Ducks

Toss-up

59.9%

playoffs · Cup 1.7%

Winnipeg Jets

Toss-up

57%

playoffs · Cup 2%

Western Conference	Playoffs	Conf	Cup
Colorado AvalancheCentral · 106.4 pts	91.6%	24.8%	15%
Edmonton OilersPacific · 102.3 pts	86.7%	12.3%	6.1%
Vegas Golden KnightsPacific · 102.2 pts	86.7%	13.7%	7%
Minnesota WildCentral · 101.4 pts	81.6%	10.7%	5.5%
Dallas StarsCentral · 100.5 pts	78.2%	12.3%	6.6%
Utah MammothCentral · 98.3 pts	70.8%	7.1%	3.2%
Anaheim DucksPacific · 95.0 pts	59.9%	4.2%	1.7%
Winnipeg JetsCentral · 95.3 pts	57.0%	4.5%	2%

Every club, every outcome4 divisions

Projected final points with the P10 to P90 range, and the odds of each landing spot, division by division.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Sort by

Sorted by Pts

Tampa Bay Lightning

LikelyCup 11.4%

104.9

88.2%

Ottawa Senators

LikelyCup 5.1%

101.1

78.6%

Boston Bruins

Toss-upCup 2%

94.8

53%

Montreal Canadiens

Toss-upCup 2%

93.9

48.4%

Florida Panthers

Toss-upCup 2.2%

93.3

45.4%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toss-upCup 1.4%

93.3

45.4%

Buffalo Sabres

Toss-upCup 1.4%

92.8

43.4%

Detroit Red Wings

UnlikelyCup 0.3%

85.5

15.4%

Atlantic	Pts	P10-P90	Playoffs	Div	Conf	Cup
Tampa Bay Lightning	104.9	93–116	88.2%5.1pp	43.1%	19.7%	11.4%1.2pp
Ottawa Senators	101.1	90–112	78.6%6.5pp	24.4%	10.6%	5.1%0.4pp
Boston Bruins	94.8	84–106	53%15.6pp	7.4%	4.5%	2%0.9pp
Montreal Canadiens	93.9	82–105	48.4%12.3pp	6.8%	4.7%	2%1pp
Florida Panthers	93.3	81–105	45.4%10.1pp	6.9%	4.9%	2.2%0.8pp
Toronto Maple Leafs	93.3	82–105	45.4%10.5pp	5.9%	3.6%	1.4%0.1pp
Buffalo Sabres	92.8	82–104	43.4%7.7pp	4.7%	3.5%	1.4%0.9pp
Detroit Red Wings	85.5	75–97	15.4%1.9pp	0.8%	0.9%	0.3%0.1pp

Metropolitan Division

Sort by

Sorted by Pts

Carolina Hurricanes

SolidCup 10.4%

105.1

90.3%

Washington Capitals

LeanCup 5.1%

99.0

72.6%

New York Rangers

LeanCup 2.7%

96.4

62.3%

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toss-upCup 1.9%

94.1

50.5%

Columbus Blue Jackets

Toss-upCup 1.4%

92.3

42.4%

New Jersey Devils

UnlikelyCup 0.8%

89.2

29.7%

New York Islanders

UnlikelyCup 0.7%

88.7

27.6%

Philadelphia Flyers

OutCup 0.2%

80.6

6.9%

Metropolitan	Pts	P10-P90	Playoffs	Div	Conf	Cup
Carolina Hurricanes	105.1	94–116	90.3%16.7pp	48.4%	19.1%	10.4%4pp
Washington Capitals	99.0	88–110	72.6%3.4pp	19.8%	10.5%	5.1%0.3pp
New York Rangers	96.4	85–108	62.3%7.7pp	13%	6%	2.7%0.5pp
Pittsburgh Penguins	94.1	83–105	50.5%4.2pp	7.7%	4.5%	1.9%0.7pp
Columbus Blue Jackets	92.3	81–103	42.4%2.7pp	5.6%	3.5%	1.4%0.3pp
New Jersey Devils	89.2	78–100	29.7%6.8pp	3%	2.1%	0.8%0.3pp
New York Islanders	88.7	78–100	27.6%6.7pp	2.3%	1.7%	0.7%0.3pp
Philadelphia Flyers	80.6	69–92	6.9%13.1pp	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%0.3pp

Western Conference

Central Division

Sort by

Sorted by Pts

Colorado Avalanche

SolidCup 15%

106.4

91.6%

Minnesota Wild

LikelyCup 5.5%

101.4

81.6%

Dallas Stars

LikelyCup 6.6%

100.5

78.2%

Utah Mammoth

LeanCup 3.2%

98.3

70.8%

Winnipeg Jets

Toss-upCup 2%

95.3

57%

St. Louis Blues

UnlikelyCup 0.8%

90.3

33.7%

Nashville Predators

UnlikelyCup 0.3%

88.6

27.1%

Chicago Blackhawks

OutCup <0.1%

76.9

3.5%

Central	Pts	P10-P90	Playoffs	Div	Conf	Cup
Colorado Avalanche	106.4	95–118	91.6%2.3pp	42.6%	24.8%	15%2.3pp
Minnesota Wild	101.4	90–112	81.6%6.2pp	19.3%	10.7%	5.5%1.1pp
Dallas Stars	100.5	89–112	78.2%4pp	16.6%	12.3%	6.6%0.1pp
Utah Mammoth	98.3	87–109	70.8%3pp	11.3%	7.1%	3.2%0.5pp
Winnipeg Jets	95.3	84–107	57%4.9pp	6.7%	4.5%	2%0.6pp
St. Louis Blues	90.3	79–102	33.7%9pp	2.1%	1.8%	0.8%0.3pp
Nashville Predators	88.6	77–100	27.1%4.3pp	1.4%	1%	0.3%0.1pp
Chicago Blackhawks	76.9	65–89	3.5%1.5pp	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%0pp

Pacific Division

Sort by

Sorted by Pts

Edmonton Oilers

LikelyCup 6.1%

102.3

86.7%

Vegas Golden Knights

LikelyCup 7%

102.2

86.7%

Anaheim Ducks

Toss-upCup 1.7%

95.0

59.9%

Seattle Kraken

Toss-upCup 1%

92.6

49.1%

Los Angeles Kings

UnlikelyCup 1%

90.5

38.5%

San Jose Sharks

UnlikelyCup 0.6%

86.7

26.5%

Vancouver Canucks

OutCup 0.1%

78.7

5.6%

Calgary Flames

OutCup <0.1%

76.8

3.3%

Pacific	Pts	P10-P90	Playoffs	Div	Conf	Cup
Edmonton Oilers	102.3	91–113	86.7%7.8pp	37.5%	12.3%	6.1%0.8pp
Vegas Golden Knights	102.2	91–113	86.7%6.1pp	35.8%	13.7%	7%0.4pp
Anaheim Ducks	95.0	84–106	59.9%6pp	11.4%	4.2%	1.7%0.2pp
Seattle Kraken	92.6	81–104	49.1%5.6pp	7.1%	2.9%	1%0.1pp
Los Angeles Kings	90.5	79–102	38.5%8.6pp	4.3%	2.7%	1%0.6pp
San Jose Sharks	86.7	73–100	26.5%3.6pp	3.5%	1.6%	0.6%0.4pp
Vancouver Canucks	78.7	67–90	5.6%9.2pp	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%0.1pp
Calgary Flames	76.8	66–88	3.3%3.9pp	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%0pp

Get the data: season table as CSV · raw JSON on GitHub

Where these numbers come from

Ratings start from goal differential per game across the last two seasons, shrunk toward the league average, then replayed forward 20,000 times against every remaining game on the real 84-game schedule and the sixteen-team bracket. Last generated 2026-10-13, after 89 games played.

How the model works

TestedEach drawn season conserves its games, fills every playoff slot once and never crowns an eliminated club under property tests; the season odds have no published backtest. About the tiers

Each club's rating starts from its goal differential per game over the last two seasons, weighted toward the more recent one and regressed (keeping 60%) because rosters turn over. This season's real goal differential folds in at a weight that climbs with games played. Goal differential becomes a true-talent win percentage, held as log-odds so every head-to-head is log5 plus home ice, which is the measured home edge from 13,511 regular-season games (a log-odds of 0.16185, about 54% of games).

Hockey is a three-point game. The winner takes two points always; the loser takes one if the game went past regulation and none if it did not. The simulator draws that overtime flag at the measured rate (22.5% of games), because the standings are points, not wins, and ignoring the loser point would understate every club by roughly nine points a season. Ties are broken on points, then regulation wins, then a coin flip standing in for the rest of the ladder.

Every one of the 1,255 games left is simulated 20,000 times, with each simulated season drawing league-wide, division and per-club errors so the output carries the model's own uncertainty. The bracket is the real one: the top three in each division plus two wild cards per conference (3+2), four best-of-seven rounds, home ice to the better record. Market: blended (weight 0.33 of 0.35 max, Polymarket futures, 32 teams).

What it does not know. No goalies, no injuries, no trade-deadline moves, no back-to-backs or travel, and there is no live bracket or game-by-game ledger yet: once the playoffs begin this page will not yet track series scores.