Leverkusen, Rhine-Ruhr · Germany · Bundesliga
Every German top-flight match this club has played in the Bundesliga, scored against the odds an Elo rating gave it before kick-off. Over 46 seasons from 1979-80 to 2024-25 it has beaten them by +27.8 match points.
Season points use that season’s own scoring, two for a win before 1995-96 and three from it; the bars use match points so the whole series is comparable. Played as SV Bayer 04 Leverkusen, then Bayer Leverkusen.
1991-92 table not final: source truncated on 1992-04-25, last 4 matchdays absent, 340 of 380.
This side's chance in each title race we forecast, frozen and scored like every forecast here.
Season titles · resolves 22 May 2027
9%Bayer Leverkusen's chance
“mkt” is Polymarket’s price, a reference line, not advice.
How the model worksSeason titles record: 100% of 3 calls right
Season titles · resolves 27 May 2027
24%Bayer Leverkusen's chance
“mkt” is Polymarket’s price, a reference line, not advice.
How the model worksSeason titles record: 100% of 3 calls right
Full odds: Bundesliga · Europa League · every title race
Total market value of the squad, EUR millions, by month; the player count beside it is the size of the priced squad.
Drawn as a step, not a curve: Transfermarkt reprices every squad in December and June (marked with a small tick on the axis) and revalues continuously between, so the line only moves when a real valuation changed, never by interpolation.
A month renders no value at all once the priced squad falls below 15 players, so a thin squad is never shown as a cheap one. The series is floored at July 2012 on purpose: earlier Transfermarkt totals reflect which players happened to be priced yet rather than the squad’s real worth, and are excluded rather than shown misleadingly low.
Upstream (dcaribou/transfermarkt-datasets) has been paused since July 2026, so the series ends where the source ends rather than where the season does.
Player valuations from Transfermarkt via github.com/dcaribou/transfermarkt-datasets (CC0).
The entity that holds control today, one per franchise; co-controllers and minority holders are listed, never summed.
Exactly one control entity is recorded per franchise, so a portfolio can never count a club twice. Co-controllers and minority holders are shown as published and carry no weight in any total.
The chip names the evidence. Sourced: a primary source is linked (league, club, filing or tier-one outlet). Cross-checked: matched against the ownership-change sweep. Contested: disputed or mid-sale. Rows are reviewed weekly.
Stakes are as published, often only “majority”, and are not pro-rated. A record of control is not a claim about anyone’s intent or conduct.
A 'Werksverein' (works club) exempted from the Bundesliga's 50+1 member-control rule; wholly owned by the pharmaceutical company Bayer AG.
Fees paid and received each season, and what the squad was worth once the trading is netted out.
Spent is the fees paid for players arriving, received the fees for players leaving, both in EUR millions by the July-to-June season of the move. A move with no fee on record (a free, a loan, an undisclosed sum) is counted, never priced: the small figure beside each total is the moves with a fee, plus those without (so 4+3 is four priced arrivals and three unpriced), and a quiet window is not mistaken for a cheap one. Wages are not here: they are estimates nobody licenses, and fees are documented.
Appreciation is the season’s change in squad value with the net spend taken out: buy 100m of players and finish 100m higher is zero; finish 120m higher and the club made 20m of players better, or the market repriced them. It needs a priced squad at both ends of the season (the same 15-player floor as the value chart), so it is blank rather than guessed for a season that lacks one.
The source has been paused since 6 July 2026, so the final row holds only the opening days of its window.
Transfer fees and player valuations from Transfermarkt via github.com/dcaribou/transfermarkt-datasets (CC0).
Grown or bought: in 2026-27, trading +€44m and appreciation —. Over the last 5 seasons (2022-23–2026-27), trading +€25m and appreciation unpriced.
The director’s ledger: 67 arrivals graded since 2022-23, 2 ungraded, 81% EV-positive. €362m deployed for a 1.1× multiplier.
Every priced club-season in the six leagues: points against expectation across, squad value gained beyond the net spend up. This club’s seasons are joined.
Bayer Leverkusen's top matches by the club Game Score: closeness, stakes, quality and upset over one unified rating of league and European play. H, A and N mark home, away and a neutral venue; a ★ is a curated all-time classic (tap it for the model's own score).All-time board.
The Blessed · Major trophy, 2024
lost the European Cup final, 2002 · lost the Europa League final, 2024 · lost the national cup final, 2020 · league runner-up, 2025
One formula, every club the site covers. See the whole board →
Open the official channel on YouTube
Calculated by Citizen of Nowhere from YouTube channel statistics, as of 2 Nov 2026. Not part of the Fan Attention Index. Not ranked.
Data from YouTube API Services · YouTube Terms of Service · How we use YouTube data
Most recent season first. Covers Bundesliga only. Rows tagged "national playoff" are pre-modern formats where the workbook records only playoff participants, not round-robin standings.
Most recent first. Every domestic cup final the club has played, including losses. Scheduled finals (date not yet passed) are flagged.
Most recent first. One row per entry showing the deepest round reached. A Cup Winner badge marks tournaments the club won: gold for the European Cup / Champions League, silver for every other UEFA or Intercontinental trophy.
