Season titles · resolves 13 Nov 2027
Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?
3%Australia's chance
- South Africa31%
- New Zealand22%
- Australia3%
- Everyone else44%
How the model worksSeason titles record: 100% of 3 calls right
This side's chance in each title race we forecast, frozen and scored like every forecast here.
Season titles · resolves 13 Nov 2027
3%Australia's chance
How the model worksSeason titles record: 100% of 3 calls right
Full odds: Rugby World Cup · every title race
This nation's highest-rated internationals by Game Score, drawn from the all-time ranking on the hub.
| # | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 Nov 2003 · 20–17 · 2003 Rugby World Cup · Final · Sydney Closeness 0.82 · Stakes 1 · Quality 1.15 · Scoring volume 0.125 · Upset 0 · Placed at #2 by hand: model score 90.5 | |
| 2 | 11 Jun 1995 · 25–22 · 1995 Rugby World Cup · Quarter-Final · Cape Town Closeness 0.858 · Stakes 0.82 · Quality 1.15 · Scoring volume 0.375 · Upset 0.55 | |
| 3 | RCNew Zealand v Australia 15 Jul 2000 · 39–35 · 2000 Tri Nations Series · Sydney Closeness 0.88 · Stakes 0.6 · Quality 1.15 · Scoring volume 1 · Upset 0 · Curated floor 95: model score 84.4 | |
| 4 | 17 Aug 2002 · 33–31 · 2002 Tri Nations Series · Johannesburg Closeness 0.931 · Stakes 0.6 · Quality 1.093 · Scoring volume 0.8 · Upset 0.708 | |
| 5 | RCAustralia v New Zealand 7 Nov 2020 · 24–22 · 2020 Tri Nations Series · Brisbane Closeness 0.903 · Stakes 0.6 · Quality 1.107 · Scoring volume 0.35 · Upset 0.849 | |
| 6 | 11 Sep 2021 · 28–26 · 2021 Rugby Championship · Gold Coast Closeness 0.918 · Stakes 0.6 · Quality 1.1 · Scoring volume 0.55 · Upset 0.701 | |
| 7 | RWCNew Zealand v Australia 31 Oct 2015 · 34–17 · 2015 Rugby World Cup · Final · London Closeness 0.259 · Stakes 1 · Quality 1.15 · Scoring volume 0.475 · Upset 0.207 · Curated floor 92: model score 75.9 | |
| 8 | RWCAustralia v South Africa 30 Oct 1999 · 27–21 · 1999 Rugby World Cup · Semi-Final · London Closeness 0.722 · Stakes 0.88 · Quality 1.15 · Scoring volume 0.4 · Upset 0.472 | |
| 9 | 6 Sep 2014 · 24–23 · 2014 Rugby Championship · Perth Closeness 0.953 · Stakes 0.6 · Quality 1.15 · Scoring volume 0.375 · Upset 0.548 | |
| 10 | TESTAustralia v South Africa 27 Sep 2026 · 42–38 · 2026 Men's Internationals · Perth | Boorloo Closeness 0.889 · Stakes 0.42 · Quality 0.997 · Scoring volume 1 · Upset 0.909 | |
| 11 | TESTAustralia v New Zealand 30 Oct 2010 · 26–24 · 2010 Autumn International · Hong Kong Closeness 0.911 · Stakes 0.42 · Quality 1.15 · Scoring volume 0.45 · Upset 0.854 | |
| 12 | 20 Oct 1991 · 19–18 · 1991 Rugby World Cup · Quarter-Final · Dublin Closeness 0.94 · Stakes 0.82 · Quality 0.264 · Scoring volume 0.125 · Upset 0 · Curated floor 87: model score 69.8 |
Championship and World Cup campaigns on file; W marks a title, GS a Grand Slam, TC a Triple Crown.
| Season | Competition | Place | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Rugby Championship | 3 | |
| 2024 | Rugby Championship | 4 | |
| 2023 | Rugby Championship | 4 | |
| 2023 | Rugby World Cup · C | — | |
| 2022 | Rugby Championship | 3 | |
| 2021 | Rugby Championship | 2 | |
| 2020 | Tri Nations Series | 3 | |
| 2019 | Rugby Championship | 2 | |
| 2019 | Rugby World Cup · D | — | QF |
| 2018 | Rugby Championship | 3 | |
| 2017 | Rugby Championship | 2 | |
| 2016 | Rugby Championship | 2 | |
| 2015 | Rugby Championship | 1 | W |
| 2015 | Rugby World Cup · A | — | Final |
| 2014 | Rugby Championship | 3 | |
| 2013 | Rugby Championship | 3 | |
| 2012 | Rugby Championship | 3 | |
| 2011 | Rugby World Cup · C | — | SF |
| 2011 | Tri Nations Series | 1 | W |
| 2010 | Tri Nations Series | 2 | |
| 2009 | Tri Nations Series | 3 | |
| 2008 | Tri Nations Series | 2 | |
| 2007 | Rugby World Cup · B | — | QF |
| 2007 | Tri Nations Series | 2 | |
| 2006 | Tri Nations Series | 2 | |
| 2005 | Tri Nations Series | 3 | |
| 2004 | Tri Nations Series | 2 | |
| 2003 | Rugby World Cup · A | — | Final |
| 2003 | Tri Nations Series | 2 | |
| 2002 | Tri Nations Series | 2 | |
| 2001 | Tri Nations Series | 1 | W |
| 2000 | Tri Nations Series | 1 | W |
| 1999 | Rugby World Cup · E | — | W · Final |
| 1999 | Tri Nations Series | 2 | |
| 1998 | Tri Nations Series | 2 | |
| 1997 | Tri Nations Series | 3 | |
| 1996 | Tri Nations Series | 3 | |
| 1995 | Rugby World Cup · A | — | QF |
| 1991 | Rugby World Cup · C | — | W · Final |
| 1987 | Rugby World Cup · A | — | SF |
| Opponent | Tests | W | L | D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | tests 181 | 44 | 129 | 8 |
| South Africa | tests 98 | 42 | 53 | 3 |
| England | tests 57 | 27 | 29 | 1 |
| France | tests 54 | 29 | 23 | 2 |
| Wales | tests 49 | 34 | 14 | 1 |
| Argentina | tests 45 | 31 | 10 | 4 |
| Ireland | tests 40 | 22 | 17 | 1 |
| Scotland | tests 35 | 22 | 13 | 0 |
| Italy | tests 21 | 19 | 2 | 0 |
| Fiji | tests 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Japan | tests 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| United States | tests 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Romania | tests 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | tests 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Uruguay | tests 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | tests 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Samoa | tests 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Namibia | tests 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Russia | tests 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Portugal | tests 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | South Africa | W 42-38 | 2026 Men's Internationals | Perth Stadium, Perth | Boorloo |
| 2026-09-05 | Argentina | D 28-28 | 2026 Men's Internationals | Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza |
| 2026-08-29 | Argentina | W 27-21 | 2026 Men's Internationals | Estadio 23 de Agosto, Jujuy |
| 2026-08-15 | Japan | W 56-17 | 2026 Men's Internationals | North Queensland Stadium, Townsville | Gurambilbarra |
| 2026-08-08 | Japan | W 35-32 | 2026 Men's Internationals | Hanazono Rugby Stadium, Osaka Prefecture, Higashiosaka City |
| 2026-07-18 | Italy | W 57-10 | 2026 Nations Championship | HBF Park, Perth | Boorloo |
| 2026-07-11 | France | L 26-42 | 2026 Nations Championship | Brisbane Stadium, Brisbane | Meeanjin |
| 2026-07-04 | Ireland | L 31-33 | 2026 Nations Championship | Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney | Gadigal |
| 2025-11-22 | France | L 33-48 | 2025 Autumn International | Stade de France, Saint-Denis |
| 2025-11-15 | Ireland | L 19-46 | 2025 Autumn International | Aviva Stadium, Dublin |
| 2025-11-08 | Italy | L 19-26 | 2025 Autumn International | Stadio Friuli, Udine |
| 2025-11-01 | England | L 7-25 | 2025 Autumn International | Twickenham Stadium, London |
From the project rugby workbook (results since 1871) and our own Elo world ranking. See the methodology on the hub.