Predictions

Forecasts across politics and sport, stated honestly: weighted averages, ranges from thousands of simulations, and the odds laid out so you can take the other side. Elections are live now; the league title-race hubs are on the way, modeled on the World Cup simulator.

Ranges first, probabilities second, humility throughout

Election Forecasts

LIVE

The 2026 US midterms (House, Senate and governors), the next UK general election, and the 2026 votes in Brazil, Israel and New Zealand, plus an early read on France 2027.

US House
74.8%
Democrats win control
US Senate
35.1%
Democratic control
US Governors
24
Median D governorships (of 50)
Full election forecasts

League Prediction Hubs

Each hub runs tens of thousands of simulated seasons and publishes every team's odds at each stage, with a Beat-the-Model card, exactly like the 2026 World Cup simulator below. The Premier League and NFL are live; College Football arrives with the preseason poll and the Champions League with the late-August draw.

2026 seasonLIVE

NFL

Super Bowl LXI, conference, division and playoff odds from the real 272-game schedule, with weekly game picks graded all season.

Simulator + Beat the Model
2026 seasonSOON

College Football

Playoff and national-title odds across the twelve-team field, conference by conference. Arrives with the preseason AP poll.

Simulator + Beat the Model
2026-27 seasonLIVE

Premier League

Title, top-five and relegation odds from 20,000 simulated seasons blending site data with market odds, plus fixture picks graded all season.

Simulator + Beat the Model
2026-27 seasonSOON

Champions League

Knockout-bracket odds from the league phase to the final. Arrives once the late-August draw sets the field.

Simulator + Beat the Model

The template: World Cup 2026

LIVE

The 2026 World Cup simulator is the working model the league hubs are built from: title odds for every nation, updated as the tournament plays out, and a Beat-the-Model card where you back the calls the simulator is least sure about.