Predictions

Forecasts across politics and sport, stated honestly: weighted averages, ranges from thousands of simulations, and the odds laid out so you can take the other side. Elections, the NFL, MLB, College Football and the Premier League are all live, and every call is scored afterwards against the price the market closed at.

Ranges first, probabilities second, humility throughout

Election Forecasts

LIVE

The 2026 US midterms, the next UK election, and 2026 votes in Brazil, Israel and New Zealand.

More
Covers the House, Senate and governors within the midterms, plus an early read on France 2027.
US House
81.9%
Democrats win control
US Senate
46.6%
Democratic control
US Governors
25
Median D governorships (of 50)
Full election forecasts

The Ledger

LIVE

Every forecast scored against the price the market closed at.

What this shows
Anyone can publish a probability, so this is the record: the probability bins showing whether seventy per cent has meant seventy per cent, and the seasons the model beat the market named one by one. Over twenty thousand priced games, the market is still ahead.
See how the models have done

League Prediction Hubs

Each hub runs tens of thousands of simulated seasons and publishes every team's odds at each stage.

More
Most hubs include a Beat-the-Model card, exactly like the 2026 World Cup simulator below. The NFL, MLB, College Football and the Premier League are live; the Champions League arrives with the late-August draw.
2026 seasonLIVE

NFL

Super Bowl LXI, conference, division and playoff odds from the real 272-game schedule, with weekly game picks graded all season.

Simulator + Beat the Model
2026 seasonLIVE

MLB

World Series, pennant, division and playoff odds from the real remaining schedule and the full twelve-team bracket, refreshed daily, with every race still open called out.

Simulator
2026 seasonLIVE

College Football

Playoff, conference title and national championship odds across the twelve-team field, with every AP Top 25 game called weekly from the preseason poll on.

Simulator
2026-27 seasonLIVE

Premier League

Title, top-five and relegation odds from 20,000 simulated seasons blending site data with market odds, plus fixture picks graded all season.

Simulator + Beat the Model
2026-27 seasonLIVE

Champions League

Champion, top-eight and knockout odds for all 36 clubs from the drawn league phase to the final, fitted on three decades of European match data and backtested against every real champion since 2004.

Simulator

The template: World Cup 2026

LIVE

The working model the league hubs are built from.

More
Title odds for every nation, updated as the tournament plays out, and a Beat-the-Model card where you back the calls the simulator is least sure about.
The World Cup simulator Play Citizen of Nowhere Picks

Where these numbers come from

Election numbers are this site's own aggregation model, rebuilt as new polls and fundamentals land. Every league hub below runs its own Monte Carlo simulation from that league's real remaining schedule, and states its own sim count, as-of date and sources on its own page. The Ledger scores every graded forecast on this page against the betting market that priced the same event - it is the one place all of them are held to the same standard.