Predictions
Forecasts across politics and sport, stated honestly: weighted averages, ranges from thousands of simulations, and the odds laid out so you can take the other side. Elections, the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, College Football, the Premier League, the Champions League and the EuroLeague are all live, and every call is scored afterwards against the price the market closed at.
Ranges first, probabilities second, humility throughout
Who wins it all
Title odds for every competition
Every league, cup and tournament we can rate, sport by sport, beside the betting market.
Next up
See all games →The soonest rated fixtures, with our home, draw and away odds.
- Mon 2 Nov 17:30Serie A
Sassuolov
Fiorentina43% · draw 27% · 30% - Mon 2 Nov 19:45Serie A
Atalantav
Parma60% · draw 24% · 16% - Mon 2 Nov 20:00Premier League
Newcastle Unitedv
Everton52% · draw 25% · 23% - Tue 3 Nov 00:00NBA
Cleveland Cavaliersv
Oklahoma City Thunder47% · 53% - Tue 3 Nov 00:00NHL
Boston Bruinsv
Vegas Golden Knights54% · 46% - Tue 3 Nov 00:00NHL
Florida Panthersv
Detroit Red Wings59% · 41%
The favourites
The two teams each model rates most likely to win the title, with the date that hub last ran.
Bills11.8%
49ers10.9%
Brewers>99.9%
Diamondbacks0%
Avalanche15%
Hurricanes13.7%
Spurs20.1%Thunder14.6%
Notre Dame13.6%
Ohio State12.1%
Arsenal49.7%
Man City46.5%
PSG16.9%Arsenal14.7%
Olympiacos BC19.4%
Real Madrid Baloncesto18%Biggest movers
One team per league: the largest change in title odds over about a week. Each row shows the two dates it compares, because the hubs refresh on different days. The list is recalculated at every refresh, so a team is here only while it holds its league's biggest swing.
Where we stand
Our live calls, each with the result that would prove it wrong.
Democrats will win the House
We say 88% · Settles 3 Nov · US midterms
Wrong if: Republicans keep a House majority
See the forecast →Boise State will beat Colorado State
We say 83% · Settles 7 Nov · College football
Wrong if: Colorado State win on 7 Nov
See the forecast →The right bloc will win a majority
We say 76% · Settles 7 Nov · New Zealand election
Wrong if: The right bloc falls short of 61 seats
See the forecast →Manchester City will beat Nottingham Forest
We say 65% · Settles 7 Nov · Premier League
Wrong if: Nottingham Forest win or draw on 7 Nov
See the forecast →
Election Forecasts
LIVEThe 2026 US midterms, the next UK election, and 2026 votes in Brazil, Israel and New Zealand.
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The Ledger
LIVEEvery forecast scored against the price the market closed at.
What this shows
League Prediction Hubs
Each hub runs tens of thousands of simulated seasons and publishes every team's odds at each stage.
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NFL
Super Bowl LXI, conference, division and playoff odds from the real 272-game schedule, with weekly game picks graded all season.
MLB
World Series, pennant, division and playoff odds from the real remaining schedule and the full twelve-team bracket, refreshed daily, with every race still open called out.
NHL
Stanley Cup, conference, division and playoff odds from the real 1,344-game schedule, with the three-point game and the loser point, refreshed every morning.
NBA
Title, conference, play-in and playoff odds from the real 1,230-game schedule, seeded from last season's Elo, net rating and the futures market, refreshed every morning.
College Football
Playoff, conference title and national championship odds across the twelve-team field, with every AP Top 25 game called weekly from the preseason poll on.
Premier League
Title, top-five and relegation odds from 20,000 simulated seasons blending site data with market odds, plus fixture picks graded all season.
Champions League
Champion, top-eight and knockout odds for all 36 clubs from the drawn league phase to the final, fitted on three decades of European match data and backtested against every real champion since 2004.
EuroLeague
Playoff, play-in, Final Four and title odds for all 20 clubs from the real 380-game schedule, seeded from last season's results and refreshed every morning.
Every title
Title odds for every league, cup and tournament in the Champions Ledger we can rate, from European leagues to the next World Cup, back-tested on past seasons and set beside the market.
The template: World Cup 2026
LIVEThe working model the league hubs are built from.
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Where these numbers come from
Election numbers are this site's own aggregation model, rebuilt as new polls and fundamentals land. Every league hub below runs its own Monte Carlo simulation from that league's real remaining schedule, and states its own sim count, as-of date and sources on its own page. The Ledger scores every graded forecast on this page against the betting market that priced the same event - it is the one place all of them are held to the same standard.