20,000 simulations of the real 272-game 2026 schedule and the full playoff bracket, through to Super Bowl LXI - a ratings model built from three seasons of scoring margins, replaying real results as they land, and predicting every game with the market alongside.
Share of simulated seasons each team lifts the Lombardi Trophy.
1Buffalo Bills8.8%
2Los Angeles Rams7.5%
3Baltimore Ravens7%
4Detroit Lions6.9%
5Seattle Seahawks6.9%
6Philadelphia Eagles5.7%
7Denver Broncos5.1%
8Houston Texans5.1%
9Kansas City Chiefs4.3%
10Green Bay Packers4.1%
11New England Patriots4%
12San Francisco 49ers3.9%
13Los Angeles Chargers3.6%
14Jacksonville Jaguars3.5%
15Tampa Bay Buccaneers2.6%
16Cincinnati Bengals2.6%
17Minnesota Vikings2.3%
18Chicago Bears2.3%
19Indianapolis Colts2.3%
20Pittsburgh Steelers2.3%
21Dallas Cowboys2.1%
The next games, called
Win probability for the home side from the model and the posted line, blended 50/50 into the pick. Every prediction is frozen when first published and graded against the final score below.
Date
Game
Model (home)
Market (home)
Pick
Thu, Sep 10
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
59%
60%
Seattle Seahawks
Fri, Sep 11
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
60%
60%
Los Angeles Rams
Sun, Sep 13
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
45%
43%
Chicago Bears
Sun, Sep 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
54%
60%
Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Sep 13
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
67%
70%
Detroit Lions
Sun, Sep 13
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
50%
46%
Buffalo Bills
Sun, Sep 13
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
46%
40%
Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Sep 13
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
67%
71%
Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Sep 13
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
51%
60%
Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Sep 13
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
70%
80%
Los Angeles Chargers
Sun, Sep 13
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
51%
46%
Green Bay Packers
Sun, Sep 13
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
65%
63%
Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Sep 13
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
60%
59%
Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Sep 13
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
55%
59%
Tennessee Titans
Mon, Sep 14
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
48%
43%
Dallas Cowboys
Tue, Sep 15
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
54%
59%
Kansas City Chiefs
How the model is doing
Every game prediction above is frozen the moment it is published. Once the season kicks off, this section keeps the running score: how many picks landed, and the model's Brier score against the betting line's - in public, win or lose.
Every team, every outcome
Expected wins and the odds of each landing spot, division by division.
AFC East
xW
Division
Playoffs
Conference
Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills
10.0
52.3%
70.9%
15.6%
8.8%
New England Patriots
9.1
31.7%
53.6%
8.1%
4%
Miami Dolphins
6.9
9.1%
19.9%
1.3%
0.6%
New York Jets
6.5
6.9%
15.9%
0.9%
0.3%
AFC North
xW
Division
Playoffs
Conference
Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens
10.1
46.5%
70%
13.2%
7%
Cincinnati Bengals
8.8
23.4%
47.6%
5.5%
2.6%
Pittsburgh Steelers
8.5
20.9%
44.3%
5%
2.3%
Cleveland Browns
7.2
9.2%
23.3%
1.2%
0.5%
AFC South
xW
Division
Playoffs
Conference
Super Bowl
Houston Texans
9.4
37.7%
58.8%
9.9%
5.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars
9.0
31.3%
52.8%
7.2%
3.5%
Indianapolis Colts
8.5
23.8%
43.8%
4.8%
2.3%
Tennessee Titans
6.6
7.3%
16.8%
0.8%
0.3%
AFC West
xW
Division
Playoffs
Conference
Super Bowl
Denver Broncos
9.4
34.7%
59.2%
9.9%
5.1%
Kansas City Chiefs
9.3
32.3%
56.8%
8.5%
4.3%
Los Angeles Chargers
8.9
27.1%
50.9%
7.3%
3.6%
Las Vegas Raiders
6.5
5.9%
15.6%
0.8%
0.3%
NFC East
xW
Division
Playoffs
Conference
Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles
9.8
47.1%
64.6%
11.2%
5.7%
Dallas Cowboys
8.4
22.7%
39.4%
4.5%
2.1%
Washington Commanders
7.9
17.3%
31.9%
2.9%
1.2%
New York Giants
7.4
12.9%
25.2%
2%
0.9%
NFC North
xW
Division
Playoffs
Conference
Super Bowl
Detroit Lions
10.2
40.9%
68.8%
13.4%
6.9%
Green Bay Packers
9.3
25.3%
52.9%
8.3%
4.1%
Minnesota Vikings
8.7
17.9%
42.5%
4.9%
2.3%
Chicago Bears
8.5
16%
39.3%
4.9%
2.3%
NFC South
xW
Division
Playoffs
Conference
Super Bowl
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8.7
37.4%
49.1%
5.8%
2.6%
New Orleans Saints
8.2
27.1%
39%
3.2%
1.1%
Atlanta Falcons
7.6
21.3%
31.5%
2.4%
1%
Carolina Panthers
7.0
14.2%
22.1%
1.7%
0.6%
NFC West
xW
Division
Playoffs
Conference
Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams
10.0
36.2%
64.9%
13.5%
7.5%
Seattle Seahawks
9.9
35.4%
64.2%
12.9%
6.9%
San Francisco 49ers
9.3
24.8%
53%
7.8%
3.9%
Arizona Cardinals
6.3
3.7%
11.9%
0.7%
0.3%
๐ฏ Beat the Model
Back the calls the simulator is least sure about - your Super Bowl champion, a dark horse into the playoffs, and a favourite to fall - and see whether you out-predict it across the season.
Each team's rating starts from its scoring margin per game over the last three regular seasons (2025, 2024, 2023), recency-weighted and shrunk hard toward the mean (ร0.55) - NFL form carries over far less than fans assume. On top of the stats sits the market: Super Bowl futures for all 32 teams, de-vigged and mapped onto the points scale through the model's own rating-to-title-odds curve, blended in at weight 0.45. The stats know what teams have done; the futures know what the market knows now - quarterback moves, rosters, a champion's continuity - that margins cannot see. This season's real results fold into the rating as they land. Every remaining game on the actual schedule is simulated as a point-spread probability (home advantage 1.6 points, margin sd 13.4), with each simulated season drawing every team's rating from a distribution (ฯ 2.5 points). Division winners, the seven seeds and the full bracket play out inside every simulation; division tie-breaks are approximated by record then head-to-head. Weekly picks blend the model with the posted line 50/50 and are graded against final scores above. Where the blend still disagrees with the futures alone, that gap is the interesting part.