NBA 2026-27

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NBA title, conference, playoff and play-in odds for all 30 teams, refreshed daily.

Elo + net rating prior · blended (weight 0.60 of 0.60 max, Polymarket futures, 30 teams) · updated 2026-10-13 · preseason forecast

Live forecast

The Spurs have a 19.4% chance to win the NBA title

0.2ppover 7 days

20,000 simulations · field 38%

The race for the title

Share of simulated seasons each team wins the NBA Finals.

Every team under 1.5% is left off; they are in the division tables below.

Spurs19.4%

Thunder19.2%

Knicks10.4%

Pistons6.8%

Celtics6%

76ers5.8%

Timberwolves4.4%

Nuggets4.1%

Cavaliers3.2%

Rockets3.1%

Raptors2.9%

Heat2.7%

Hornets2.2%

Lakers2.1%

The races still open24 teams

Every team the model puts between 15% and 85% to reach the 16-team playoff bracket, closest to a coin flip first.

Why this matters

This is where the season is actually being decided, and where the model is most likely to be wrong. Reaching the bracket includes winning through the play-in.

Trail BlazersNorthwest

50%to make the playoffsToss-up

30% to finish top six · 39% to land in the play-in · 39.6 projected wins

SunsPacific

50%to make the playoffsToss-up

31% to finish top six · 37.8% to land in the play-in · 39.6 projected wins

MagicSoutheast

49%to make the playoffsToss-up

31.3% to finish top six · 37.9% to land in the play-in · 40.4 projected wins

HornetsSoutheast

51%to make the playoffsToss-up

35.9% to finish top six · 31.8% to land in the play-in · 40.8 projected wins

WarriorsPacific

52%to make the playoffsToss-up

31.6% to finish top six · 40.1% to land in the play-in · 40.0 projected wins

HawksSoutheast

54%to make the playoffsToss-up

35.3% to finish top six · 37.6% to land in the play-in · 41.3 projected wins

ClippersPacific

39%to make the playoffsUnlikely

24% to finish top six · 33% to land in the play-in · 37.4 projected wins

PacersCentral

36%to make the playoffsUnlikely

23.1% to finish top six · 28.7% to land in the play-in · 37.1 projected wins

MavericksSouthwest

31%to make the playoffsUnlikely

16.4% to finish top six · 33.3% to land in the play-in · 35.7 projected wins

HeatSoutheast

71%to make the playoffsLean

53.2% to finish top six · 33.1% to land in the play-in · 44.9 projected wins

JazzNorthwest

28%to make the playoffsUnlikely

16.1% to finish top six · 27.1% to land in the play-in · 34.4 projected wins

RaptorsAtlantic

72%to make the playoffsLean

53.5% to finish top six · 32.9% to land in the play-in · 44.9 projected wins

LakersPacific

72%to make the playoffsLean

53.2% to finish top six · 33.2% to land in the play-in · 44.1 projected wins

CavaliersCentral

73%to make the playoffsLean

55.8% to finish top six · 31.5% to land in the play-in · 45.3 projected wins

WizardsSoutheast

24%to make the playoffsUnlikely

15.2% to finish top six · 21.5% to land in the play-in · 33.1 projected wins

RocketsSouthwest

76%to make the playoffsLikely

58.8% to finish top six · 29.4% to land in the play-in · 45.2 projected wins

76ersAtlantic

78%to make the playoffsLikely

64.1% to finish top six · 25.3% to land in the play-in · 47.2 projected wins

PistonsCentral

81%to make the playoffsLikely

67.4% to finish top six · 23.8% to land in the play-in · 47.9 projected wins

NuggetsNorthwest

81%to make the playoffsLikely

66.3% to finish top six · 25.2% to land in the play-in · 46.6 projected wins

TimberwolvesNorthwest

81%to make the playoffsLikely

66% to finish top six · 25.5% to land in the play-in · 46.5 projected wins

GrizzliesSouthwest

17%to make the playoffsUnlikely

7.4% to finish top six · 24.5% to land in the play-in · 32.4 projected wins

BullsCentral

17%to make the playoffsUnlikely

7.3% to finish top six · 24.5% to land in the play-in · 33.1 projected wins

CelticsAtlantic

84%to make the playoffsLikely

69.3% to finish top six · 23.3% to land in the play-in · 48.1 projected wins

PelicansSouthwest

17%to make the playoffsUnlikely

7% to finish top six · 24.5% to land in the play-in · 32.4 projected wins

The field the model expects20 teams

The ten teams from each conference the model has reaching the playoffs most often: six straight in and four in the play-in, two of whom survive. A play-in tag marks a team the model expects to find there rather than in the top six. Ordered by those odds, not by the standings.

Eastern Conference

Knicks

Solid

90.5%

playoffs · Title 10.4%

Celtics

Likely

83.5%

playoffs · Title 6%

Pistons

Likely

81.1%

playoffs · Title 6.8%

76ers

Likely

78.4%

playoffs · Title 5.8%

Cavaliers

Lean

73.1%

playoffs · Title 3.2%

Raptors

Lean

71.8%

playoffs · Title 2.9%

Heat

Lean

71.3%

playoffs · Title 2.7%

HawksPlay-in

Toss-up

53.7%

playoffs · Title 1.3%

HornetsPlay-in

Toss-up

51.3%

playoffs · Title 2.2%

MagicPlay-in

Toss-up

49.4%

playoffs · Title 1%

Eastern Conference	Playoffs	Top 6	Title
KnicksAtlantic · 50.9 wins	90.5%	81.1%	10.4%
CelticsAtlantic · 48.1 wins	83.5%	69.3%	6%
PistonsCentral · 47.9 wins	81.1%	67.4%	6.8%
76ersAtlantic · 47.2 wins	78.4%	64.1%	5.8%
CavaliersCentral · 45.3 wins	73.1%	55.8%	3.2%
RaptorsAtlantic · 44.9 wins	71.8%	53.5%	2.9%
HeatSoutheast · 44.9 wins	71.3%	53.2%	2.7%
HawksPlay-inSoutheast · 41.3 wins	53.7%	35.3%	1.3%
HornetsPlay-inSoutheast · 40.8 wins	51.3%	35.9%	2.2%
MagicPlay-inSoutheast · 40.4 wins	49.4%	31.3%	1%

Western Conference

Spurs

Solid

97.9%

playoffs · Title 19.4%

Thunder

Solid

97.6%

playoffs · Title 19.2%

Timberwolves

Likely

81.2%

playoffs · Title 4.4%

Nuggets

Likely

81.1%

playoffs · Title 4.1%

Rockets

Likely

76.2%

playoffs · Title 3.1%

Lakers

Lean

71.8%

playoffs · Title 2.1%

WarriorsPlay-in

Toss-up

51.9%

playoffs · Title 0.7%

Trail BlazersPlay-in

Toss-up

50%

playoffs · Title 0.7%

SunsPlay-in

Toss-up

49.8%

playoffs · Title 0.8%

ClippersPlay-in

Unlikely

39.4%

playoffs · Title 0.7%

Western Conference	Playoffs	Top 6	Title
SpursSouthwest · 55.2 wins	97.9%	94.5%	19.4%
ThunderNorthwest · 55.0 wins	97.6%	93.8%	19.2%
TimberwolvesNorthwest · 46.5 wins	81.2%	66%	4.4%
NuggetsNorthwest · 46.6 wins	81.1%	66.3%	4.1%
RocketsSouthwest · 45.2 wins	76.2%	58.8%	3.1%
LakersPacific · 44.1 wins	71.8%	53.2%	2.1%
WarriorsPlay-inPacific · 40.0 wins	51.9%	31.6%	0.7%
Trail BlazersPlay-inNorthwest · 39.6 wins	50.0%	30%	0.7%
SunsPlay-inPacific · 39.6 wins	49.8%	31%	0.8%
ClippersPlay-inPacific · 37.4 wins	39.4%	24%	0.7%

Every club, every outcome6 divisions

Projected final wins with the P10 to P90 range, and the odds of each landing spot, division by division.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Sort by

Sorted by Wins

Knicks

SolidTitle 10.4%

50.9

90.5%

Celtics

LikelyTitle 6%

48.1

83.5%

76ers

LikelyTitle 5.8%

47.2

78.4%

Raptors

LeanTitle 2.9%

44.9

71.8%

Nets

OutTitle <0.1%

29.0

7.4%

Atlantic	Wins	P10-P90	Play-in	Playoffs	Top 6	Finals	Title
Knicks	50.9	41–60	15.5%	90.5%2.6pp	81.1%	20.8%	10.4%1.5pp
Celtics	48.1	38–58	23.3%	83.5%0.4pp	69.3%	13.3%	6%0.1pp
76ers	47.2	37–58	25.3%	78.4%0pp	64.1%	12.6%	5.8%0.3pp
Raptors	44.9	35–54	32.9%	71.8%0.1pp	53.5%	7.1%	2.9%0.1pp
Nets	29.0	20–39	13.2%	7.4%0.2pp	2.8%	0.1%	<0.1%0pp

Central Division

Sort by

Sorted by Wins

Pistons

LikelyTitle 6.8%

47.9

81.1%

Cavaliers

LeanTitle 3.2%

45.3

73.1%

Pacers

UnlikelyTitle 1%

37.1

36%

Bulls

UnlikelyTitle 0.1%

33.1

16.8%

Bucks

OutTitle <0.1%

31.6

11.7%

Central	Wins	P10-P90	Play-in	Playoffs	Top 6	Finals	Title
Pistons	47.9	37–58	23.8%	81.1%0.2pp	67.4%	14.2%	6.8%0.2pp
Cavaliers	45.3	36–55	31.5%	73.1%1.2pp	55.8%	7.7%	3.2%0.1pp
Pacers	37.1	25–50	28.7%	36%2.7pp	23.1%	2.8%	1%0.3pp
Bulls	33.1	24–43	24.5%	16.8%0.1pp	7.3%	0.4%	0.1%0pp
Bucks	31.6	22–41	19.7%	11.7%0pp	4.8%	0.2%	<0.1%0pp

Southeast Division

Sort by

Sorted by Wins

Heat

LeanTitle 2.7%

44.9

71.3%

Hawks

Toss-upTitle 1.3%

41.3

53.7%

Hornets

Toss-upTitle 2.2%

40.8

51.3%

Magic

Toss-upTitle 1%

40.4

49.4%

Wizards

UnlikelyTitle 0.9%

33.1

24.1%

Southeast	Wins	P10-P90	Play-in	Playoffs	Top 6	Finals	Title
Heat	44.9	35–54	33.1%	71.3%2pp	53.2%	7.1%	2.7%0.1pp
Hawks	41.3	31–51	37.6%	53.7%1.3pp	35.3%	3.6%	1.3%0pp
Hornets	40.8	29–53	31.8%	51.3%1.3pp	35.9%	5.1%	2.2%0.1pp
Magic	40.4	30–51	37.9%	49.4%0.3pp	31.3%	3%	1%0pp
Wizards	33.1	20–47	21.5%	24.1%1.2pp	15.2%	2.1%	0.9%0.2pp

Western Conference

Northwest Division

Sort by

Sorted by Wins

Thunder

SolidTitle 19.2%

55.0

97.6%

Nuggets

LikelyTitle 4.1%

46.6

81.1%

Timberwolves

LikelyTitle 4.4%

46.5

81.2%

Trail Blazers

Toss-upTitle 0.7%

39.6

50%

Jazz

UnlikelyTitle 0.4%

34.4

28.3%

Northwest	Wins	P10-P90	Play-in	Playoffs	Top 6	Finals	Title
Thunder	55.0	46–64	5.5%	97.6%0.1pp	93.8%	30.9%	19.2%0.4pp
Nuggets	46.6	37–56	25.2%	81.1%0.6pp	66.3%	8.3%	4.1%0.2pp
Timberwolves	46.5	37–56	25.5%	81.2%1.8pp	66%	8.7%	4.4%0.6pp
Trail Blazers	39.6	30–49	39%	50%0.3pp	30%	1.9%	0.7%0pp
Jazz	34.4	23–46	27.1%	28.3%1.3pp	16.1%	1%	0.4%0.1pp

Pacific Division

Sort by

Sorted by Wins

Lakers

LeanTitle 2.1%

44.1

71.8%

Warriors

Toss-upTitle 0.7%

40.0

51.9%

Suns

Toss-upTitle 0.8%

39.6

49.8%

Clippers

UnlikelyTitle 0.7%

37.4

39.4%

Kings

OutTitle <0.1%

29.9

10.2%

Pacific	Wins	P10-P90	Play-in	Playoffs	Top 6	Finals	Title
Lakers	44.1	34–54	33.2%	71.8%1.2pp	53.2%	4.9%	2.1%0.2pp
Warriors	40.0	30–50	40.1%	51.9%0.1pp	31.6%	1.8%	0.7%0pp
Suns	39.6	29–50	37.8%	49.8%2.4pp	31%	2.3%	0.8%0pp
Clippers	37.4	27–49	33%	39.4%0.3pp	24%	1.7%	0.7%0pp
Kings	29.9	21–40	17%	10.2%0.2pp	3.9%	0.1%	<0.1%0pp

Southwest Division

Sort by

Sorted by Wins

Spurs

SolidTitle 19.4%

55.2

97.9%

Rockets

LikelyTitle 3.1%

45.2

76.2%

Mavericks

UnlikelyTitle 0.3%

35.7

30.8%

Pelicans

UnlikelyTitle 0.1%

32.4

16.5%

Grizzlies

UnlikelyTitle 0.1%

32.4

17.3%

Southwest	Wins	P10-P90	Play-in	Playoffs	Top 6	Finals	Title
Spurs	55.2	46–64	5%	97.9%0.1pp	94.5%	30.7%	19.4%0.2pp
Rockets	45.2	35–55	29.4%	76.2%0.8pp	58.8%	6.6%	3.1%0.1pp
Mavericks	35.7	26–46	33.3%	30.8%0.1pp	16.4%	0.7%	0.3%0pp
Pelicans	32.4	23–42	24.5%	16.5%0pp	7%	0.2%	0.1%0pp
Grizzlies	32.4	23–42	24.5%	17.3%0.3pp	7.4%	0.2%	0.1%0pp

Get the data: season table as CSV · raw JSON on GitHub

Where these numbers come from

Ratings blend last season's closing Elo and net rating, shrunk toward average, with the championship futures market, then replayed forward 20,000 times against every remaining game on the real 1,200-game schedule, the play-in and the sixteen-team bracket. Last generated 2026-10-13 (preseason).

How the model works

TestedEach drawn season conserves its games, fills every playoff slot once and never crowns an eliminated club under property tests; the season odds have no published backtest. About the tiers

Each team's rating is a points-of-margin number. It blends last season's closing Elo (regressed a quarter of the way back to average, then converted at 28 Elo points per point of margin) with last season's net rating (keeping 60% of it), and, before and early in the season, the championship futures market, which is where roster changes live: trades, signings and injuries that last year's numbers cannot see. The market's say fades as the season is played, from 60% of the blend today to nothing by the end. This season's real margin folds in at a weight that climbs with games played.

The game model. A game is a normal margin: the home side wins with probability Φ((rating gap + 2.3 points of home edge) / 12). The 2.3-point edge is the current-era NBA home advantage; Neil Paine measures it at about 41 Elo points, between 1.5 and 2.5 points of margin. Neutral-site games carry no edge.

Every one of the 1,230 games left is simulated 20,000 times, with each simulated season drawing league-wide, division and per-team rating errors so the output carries the model's own uncertainty. Ties are broken on head-to-head record, then a coin flip. The postseason is the real one: seeds 1 to 6 go straight in, 7 to 10 play in (7 v 8 for the 7 seed, 9 v 10 with the loser out, then the loser of 7 v 8 hosts the winner of 9 v 10 for the 8 seed), then four best-of-seven rounds with home court to the better record. Market: blended (weight 0.60 of 0.60 max, Polymarket futures, 30 teams).

What it does not know. No injuries, no player ratings, no rest or travel. Before tip-off this forecast is a prior, and it tightens as games arrive.