Elections · resolves 3 Nov 2026
Will Democrats hold most governorships after 2026?
55%chance, our model
Track record
Every forecast we publish is frozen before the result and scored after it, here, whoever's model made it.
Data as of 13 Oct 2026 · 844 forecasts tracked · 351 resolved · 492 open · Source: this site's forecast ledger
Resolved
351
492 still open
Top pick right
68%
235 of 345 calls
Skill vs a shrug
+23.9%
Brier against equal odds on every answer
Vs the market
−3.9%
on 294 priced calls
By domain
Hit rate and log loss compare across domains; each Brier stays on its own scale.
How this is measured
Hit rate: the share of probability questions where the answer we rated most likely happened (a 50/50 call counts as no pick). Log loss: the average of minus the natural log of the probability we gave what happened; a coin scores 0.693, lower is better.
Brier on a yes/no question runs 0 to 1 (a coin scores 0.25); on a question with several answers it sums over every answer and runs 0 to 2. The two never share a column. Ranges held: the share of published ranges that contained the result, against the level the range was published at.
Elections
6 resolved · 73 open · hit — · log —
Brier — · mean miss 3.12
Formula 1
0 resolved · 2 open · hit — · log —
Brier —
Games
314 resolved · 0 open · hit 68% · log 0.634
Brier 0.410 (multi)
Leaders
0 resolved · 6 open · hit — · log —
Brier —
Golf and tennis majors
0 resolved · 3 open · hit — · log —
Brier —
Matches
24 resolved · 274 open · hit 54% · log 0.821
Brier 0.553 (multi)
Universal Index No.1
7 resolved · 7 open · hit 100% · log 0.072
Brier 0.023 (multi)
LA28 Olympics
0 resolved · 61 open · hit — · log —
Brier —
Rugby League World Cup
0 resolved · 16 open · hit — · log —
Brier —
Rugby World Cup
0 resolved · 1 open · hit — · log —
Brier —
Season titles
0 resolved · 49 open · hit — · log —
Brier —
Calibration
Up the side: how often it happened. When we say 30%, it should happen about 30% of the time.
How this is measured
Every probability a resolved forecast stated is one point: the yes on a yes/no question, and each answer on a question with several, scored against whether that answer happened. Points are pooled across every domain into ten-point bands; a dot sits at the band’s average stated probability and its observed frequency, and its size tracks how many points the band holds. 776 points so far.
Tap or drag across the chart: each dot is a ten-point band of what we said. The dashed line is perfect calibration.
Our model against the market
Same questions, same frozen moment: positive skill means we beat the price.
How this is measured
Only questions where a real market priced the same claim count here. The market’s quoted probabilities are normalised to sum to one before scoring. The comparison is a reference line for judging the model, never betting advice. The sport-by-sport version, against closing prices, is the Ledger.
- Games · 277 priced calls · our Brier 0.405 against the market’s 0.387 · skill −4.4%
- Matches · 17 priced calls · our Brier 0.453 against the market’s 0.471 · skill +3.8%
Recently resolved
What we said when the forecast froze, and what happened.
Said Carolina Hurricanes 84% · happened Carolina Hurricanes
Universal Index No.1 · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 84%
Said Seattle Seahawks 100% · happened Seattle Seahawks
Universal Index No.1 · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 100%
Said Spain 100% · happened Spain
Universal Index No.1 · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 100%
Said Spain 100% · happened Spain
Universal Index No.1 · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 100%
Said Milwaukee Brewers 78% · happened Milwaukee Brewers
Universal Index No.1 · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 78%
Said Arsenal 100% · happened Arsenal
Universal Index No.1 · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 100%
Said Arsenal 92% · happened Arsenal
Universal Index No.1 · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 92%
Said Minnesota Wild 54% · happened Minnesota Wild
Matches · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 54%
Said Buffalo Sabres 58% · happened Buffalo Sabres
Matches · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 58%
Said Ottawa Senators 52% · happened Ottawa Senators
Matches · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 52%
Said El Salvador 60% · happened Paraguay
Matches · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 22%
Said Morocco 73% · happened Draw
Matches · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 14%
Show all 40 forecasts
Said Moldova 66% · happened Georgia
Matches · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 17%
Said Canada 64% · happened Denmark
Matches · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 18%
Said Faroe Islands 54% · happened Andorra
Matches · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 26%
Said Chile 92% · happened Chile
Matches · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 92%
Said Newcastle United 64% · happened Coventry City
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 17%
Said Manchester City 42% · happened Manchester City
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 42%
Said Everton 56% · happened Draw
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 25%
Said Crystal Palace 39% · happened Crystal Palace
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 39%
Said Brighton & Hove Albion 56% · happened Brighton & Hove Albion
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 56%
Said Manchester United 58% · happened Draw
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 21%
Said Fulham 47% · happened Ipswich Town
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 29%
Said Chelsea 59% · happened Chelsea
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 59%
Said Aston Villa 44% · happened Draw
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 24%
Said Arsenal 76% · happened Arsenal
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 76%
Said Los Angeles Rams 53% · happened Buffalo Bills
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 47%
Said Baltimore Ravens 59% · happened Baltimore Ravens
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 59%
Said Seattle Seahawks 56% · happened San Francisco 49ers
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✗ missed, gave it 44%
Said Detroit Lions 61% · happened Detroit Lions
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 61%
Said Green Bay Packers 52% · happened Green Bay Packers
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 52%
Said Denver Broncos 52% · happened Denver Broncos
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 52%
Said Minnesota Vikings 55% · happened Minnesota Vikings
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 55%
Said New England Patriots 63% · happened New England Patriots
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 63%
Said Pittsburgh Steelers 54% · happened Pittsburgh Steelers
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 54%
Said Houston Texans 64% · happened Houston Texans
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 64%
Said New York Jets 56% · happened New York Jets
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 56%
Said Cincinnati Bengals 61% · happened Cincinnati Bengals
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 61%
Said Jacksonville Jaguars 55% · happened Jacksonville Jaguars
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 55%
Said Milwaukee Brewers 54% · happened Milwaukee Brewers
Games · 2026-10-13 · ✓ called it, gave it 54%
Open now: the United States
Our forecasts, frozen before the result and scored after it.
Elections · resolves 3 Nov 2026
Will Democrats win a House majority in 2026?
88%chance, our model
Polymarket prices it at 91% (the tick). A reference line, not advice.
Elections · resolves 3 Nov 2026
Will Democrats control the Senate after 2026?
60%chance, our model
Polymarket prices it at 64% (the tick). A reference line, not advice.
Elections · resolves 7 Nov 2028
Will the Democratic nominee win the 2028 popular vote?
58%chance, our model
8 more on the forecast page.
Where these numbers come from
The forecasts come from this site’s own models, each publishing the same shape: the question, our probability or range, the moment it freezes and the rule that settles it. A daily job snapshots every open forecast, freezes it at its stated freeze time (never a version issued after it), records the result from the domain’s resolver, and scores it. The record is append-only.
Elections are graded by the election scorer against filed final counts; a provisional count resolves nothing. Games come settled from each sport’s own predictions ledger, scored to the same Brier those pages show. Market prices are Polymarket and the bookmakers’ posted or closing lines, shown as a reference.
Where the scores live
Per-sport skill against the closing market, by season, is on the Ledger; each election race is graded on the election forecast.