Golf: Rankings, Majors and Champions

A player's weight is his or her major titles over the last 16 majors of that tour, discounted for each major since and boosted when it was the same tournament; a fitted share goes to everyone without a recent title, first-time winners included. The discount, boost and share are fitted on the majors of 1990-2016 and then scored, out of sample, on every major since. We hold no rankings history and no entry lists, so injuries, retirements and form outside the majors are invisible to it.

Men's majors: over 39 majors (2017-2026) log loss 1.604 against 1.629 for a flat count of recent titles (lower is better); the top-named player won 3 of them, and the champion had won a major in the previous 16 in 15.

Women's majors: over 49 majors (2017-2026) log loss 1.223 against 1.21 for a flat count of recent titles (lower is better); the top-named player won 1 of them, and the champion had won a major in the previous 16 in 11.

Every forecast is frozen when it locks and scored against the result. Resolution rules: The men's champion of the 2027 Masters (Augusta National Golf Club). A player not named above resolves to Anyone else.