🏀 The 1982-83 men’s college basketball season

What the record holds for this season: the champion, the tournament bracket, the AP poll week by week, the conference tables, and the Elo ratings with the biggest upsets.

Source: Citizen of Nowhere college basketball database · 31 conferences · 52-team tournament

← 1982 1984 →All seasons

Jump to any season1896–2027

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2010s

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2000s

2009North Carolina 2008Kansas 2007Florida 2006Florida 2005North Carolina 2004Connecticut 2003Syracuse 2002Maryland 2001Duke 2000Michigan State

1990s

1999Connecticut 1998Kentucky 1997Arizona 1996Kentucky 1995UCLA 1994Arkansas 1993North Carolina 1992Duke 1991Duke 1990UNLV

1980s

1989Michigan 1988Kansas 1987Indiana 1986Louisville 1985Villanova 1984Georgetown 1983North Carolina State 1982North Carolina 1981Indiana 1980Louisville

1970s

1979Michigan State 1978Kentucky 1977Marquette 1976Indiana 1975UCLA 1974North Carolina State 1973UCLA 1972UCLA 1971UCLA 1970UCLA

1960s

1969UCLA 1968UCLA 1967UCLA 1966Texas Western 1965UCLA 1964UCLA 1963Loyola-Chicago 1962Cincinnati 1961Cincinnati 1960Ohio State

1950s

1959California 1958Kentucky 1957North Carolina 1956San Francisco 1955San Francisco 1954La Salle 1953Indiana 1952Kansas 1951Kentucky 1950CCNY

1940s

1949Kentucky 1948Kentucky 1947Holy Cross 1946Oklahoma A&M 1945Oklahoma A&M 1944Utah 1943Wyoming 1942Stanford 1941Wisconsin 1940Indiana

1930s

1939Oregon 1938Temple 1937Stanford 1936 1935 1934 1933 1932Purdue 1931Northwestern 1930

1920s

1929Montana State 1928Pittsburgh 1927 1926Syracuse 1925Princeton 1924North Carolina 1923 1922 1921 1920Pennsylvania

1910s

1919 1918Syracuse 1917Washington State 1916Wisconsin 1915Illinois 1914Wisconsin 1913Navy 1912Wisconsin 1911St. John's 1910

1900s

1909Chicago 1908 1907 1906 1905Columbia 1904Columbia 1903 1902Minnesota 1901 1900

1890s

1899 1898 1897 1896

1983season

← 1982 1984 →

1982-83 national champion

The NCAA tournament winner.

National champion

North Carolina State

26-106 seedFinal AP #16

Title gameHouston 52, North Carolina State 54 (Apr 4)

Final FourNorth Carolina StateHoustonLouisvilleGeorgia

The 1983 NCAA tournament

52 teams. Winners in bold, seeds before each team.

52-team field · 4 regions

First Four

12Alcorn State81

Xavier75

Midwest · Mar 15

12La Salle70

Boston University58

East · Mar 15

12Princeton53

North Carolina A&T41

West · Mar 15

12Robert Morris64

Georgia Southern54

Mideast · Mar 15

First Round

7West Virginia50

10James Madison57

6Syracuse74

11Morehead State59

8SW Louisiana53

9Rutgers60

5Virginia Commonwealth76

12La Salle67

Second Round

2North Carolina68

10James Madison49

3Ohio State79

6Syracuse74

1St. John's66

9Rutgers55

4Georgia56

5Virginia Commonwealth54

Regional Semifinals

2North Carolina64

3Ohio State51

1St. John's67

4Georgia70

Regional Finals

2North Carolina77

4Georgia82

East region

First Round

7West Virginia50

10James Madison57

6Syracuse74

11Morehead State59

8SW Louisiana53

9Rutgers60

5Virginia Commonwealth76

12La Salle67

Second Round

2North Carolina68

10James Madison49

3Ohio State79

6Syracuse74

1St. John's66

9Rutgers55

4Georgia56

5Virginia Commonwealth54

Regional Semifinals

2North Carolina64

3Ohio State51

1St. John's67

4Georgia70

Regional Finals

2North Carolina77

4Georgia82

West region

First Round

8Washington State62

9Weber State52

5Oklahoma State53

12Princeton56

6North Carolina State69

11Pepperdine67

7Illinois49

10Utah52

Second Round

1Virginia54

8Washington State49

4Boston College51

12Princeton42

3UNLV70

6North Carolina State71

2UCLA61

10Utah67

Regional Semifinals

1Virginia95

4Boston College92

6North Carolina State75

10Utah56

Regional Finals

1Virginia62

6North Carolina State63

Midwest region

First Round

8Maryland52

9UT-Chattanooga51

5Georgetown68

12Alcorn State63

6Alabama50

11Lamar73

7Iowa64

10Utah State59

Second Round

1Houston60

8Maryland50

4Memphis State66

5Georgetown57

3Villanova60

11Lamar58

2Missouri63

7Iowa77

Regional Semifinals

1Houston70

4Memphis State63

3Villanova55

7Iowa54

Regional Finals

1Houston89

3Villanova71

Mideast region

First Round

8Tennessee57

9Marquette56

5Purdue55

12Robert Morris53

7Oklahoma71

10UAB63

6Illinois State49

11Ohio51

Second Round

1Louisville70

8Tennessee57

4Arkansas78

5Purdue68

2Indiana63

7Oklahoma49

3Kentucky57

11Ohio40

Regional Semifinals

1Louisville65

4Arkansas63

2Indiana59

3Kentucky64

Regional Finals

1Louisville80

3Kentucky68

Final Four and the title game

Final Four

4Georgia60

6North Carolina State67

East vs West · Apr 2

1Houston94

1Louisville81

Midwest vs Mideast · Apr 2

Championship game: North Carolina State

1Houston52

6North Carolina State54

Midwest vs West · Apr 4

Conference tournaments

The champion and the other finalist of each of the 24 conference tournaments held in 1982-83.

Conference	Champion	Runner-up	Final
Atlantic 10	West Virginia 86-78, Mar 13	Temple	86-78, Mar 13
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State 81-78, Mar 13	Virginia	81-78, Mar 13
Big East	St. John's 85-77, Mar 12	Boston College	85-77, Mar 12
Big Eight	Oklahoma State 93-92, Mar 12	Missouri	93-92, Mar 12
Big Sky	Weber State 87-78, Mar 11	Nevada	87-78, Mar 11
ECAC Metro	Robert Morris 79-67, Mar 12	LIU-Brooklyn	79-67, Mar 12
ECAC North	Boston University 63-62, Mar 12	Holy Cross	63-62, Mar 12
ECAC South	James Madison 41-38, Mar 12	William & Mary	41-38, Mar 12
East Coast	La Salle 75-73, Mar 12	American	75-73, Mar 12
Metro	Louisville 66-51, Mar 12	Tulane	66-51, Mar 12
Metro Atlantic	Fordham 54-53, Mar 12	Iona	54-53, Mar 12
Mid-American	Ohio 59-56, Mar 12	Bowling Green	59-56, Mar 12
Mid-Eastern	North Carolina A&T 71-64, Mar 12	Howard	71-64, Mar 12
Midwestern City	Xavier 82-76, Mar 12	Loyola-Chicago	82-76, Mar 12
Missouri Valley	Illinois State 84-64, Mar 12	Tulsa	84-64, Mar 12
Ohio Valley	Morehead State 81-65, Mar 11	Akron	81-65, Mar 11
Pacific Coast	UNLV	Fresno State
Southeastern	Georgia 86-71, Mar 13	Alabama	86-71, Mar 13
Southern	UT-Chattanooga 70-62, Mar 12	East Tennessee State	70-62, Mar 12
Southland	Lamar 75-54, Mar 12	North Texas	75-54, Mar 12
Southwest	Houston 62-59, Mar 12	TCU	62-59, Mar 12
Southwestern Athletic	Alcorn State 81-69, Mar 12	Texas Southern	81-69, Mar 12
Sun Belt	UAB 64-47, Mar 12	South Florida	64-47, Mar 12
Trans America	Georgia Southern 68-67, Mar 12	Arkansas-Little Rock	68-67, Mar 12

The 1982-83 AP poll, week by week

Each team's rank in every poll. Tap a rank to read it.

Team	Nov23	30	Dec7	14	21	28	Jan4	11	18	25	Feb1	8	15	22	Mar1	8	15
Houston	14	11	9	14	19	18	19	16	14	9	8	6	4	2	1	1	1
Louisville	8	7	13	12	14	13	13	9	9	8	12	11	9	5	3	3	2
St. John's	19	12	12	9	7	7	7	3	8	7	5	7	6	9	10	8	3
Virginia	1	1	1	1	1	4	4	2	7	6	3	3	5	3	2	2	4
Indiana	9	8	6	5	5	1	1	4	2	2	6	4	2	4	11	7	5
UNLV		20	19	18	17	15	11	8	5	4	2	2	1	1	9	9	6
UCLA	7	6	5	4	3	5	6	5	1	1	7	5	10	8	6	4	7
North Carolina	3	15	17	17			18	11	3	3	1	1	3	11	8	5	8
Arkansas	17	16	15	13	12	11	10	7	4	12	9	8	7	6	5	6	9
Missouri	15	9	8	8	6	12	15	14	12	13	10	10	12	16	13	12	10
Boston College													18	19	15	14	11
Kentucky	4	3	2	2	2	3	3	6	11	10	15	13	11	10	7	10	12
Villanova	5	4	10	19	18	16	14	15	13	11	11	12	8	7	4	13	13
Wichita State												16	15	12	12	11	14
UT-Chattanooga															19	18	15
North Carolina State	16	18	18	15	15	17	16	19									16
Memphis State	6	5	4	3	4	2	2	1	6	5	4	9	13	14	17	17	17
Georgia											19						18
Oklahoma State									18	20							19
Georgetown	2	2	3	5	11	10	17		19	15	14	14	14	18	16	15	20
Ohio State								20					20	15	14	16
Oklahoma	20												19			19
Syracuse				16	13	14	9	13	15	18	20	15	17	13	18	20
Purdue			20				20					18			20
Iowa	11	10	7	7	10	9	8	12	10	14	13	20	16	17
Tennessee	13	14	14	11	9	8	12	18						20
Illinois State										17	16	17
Minnesota								17	16	16	17	19
Washington State											18
Wake Forest										19
Virginia Tech									17
Auburn									20
Alabama	12	13	11	10	8	6	5	10
Tulsa					20	19
West Virginia				20	16	20
Marquette	18	17	16
Oregon State	10	19

Tap a rank to read it.

1983 final AP Top 20

The last Associated Press ranking of the season, with each team's record.

1983 final AP Top 20AP

1Houston31-3
2Louisville32-4
3St. John's28-5
4Virginia29-5
5Indiana24-6
6UNLV28-3
7UCLA23-6
8North Carolina28-8
9Arkansas26-4
10Missouri26-8

1983 standings by conference

Overall and conference record. A star marks the regular-season champion, a trophy the conference-tournament champion.

1983 standings by conference31 conferences

Atlantic 1010 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Rutgers	23-8	11-3	★ 9 seed
West Virginia	23-8	10-4	★ 🏆 7 seed
St. Bonaventure	20-10	10-4	★
Penn State	17-11	9-5
St. Joseph's	15-13	8-6
Duquesne	12-16	6-8
Temple	14-15	5-9
George Washington	14-15	4-10
Massachusetts	9-20	4-10
Rhode Island	9-19	3-11

Atlantic Coast8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Virginia	29-5	12-2	★ 1 seed AP 4
North Carolina	28-8	12-2	★ 2 seed AP 8
North Carolina State	26-10	8-6	🏆 6 seed AP 16
Maryland	20-10	8-6	8 seed
Wake Forest	20-12	7-7
Georgia Tech	13-15	4-10
Duke	11-17	3-11
Clemson	11-20	2-12

Big East9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
St. John's	28-5	12-4	★ 🏆 1 seed AP 3
Boston College	25-7	12-4	★ 4 seed AP 11
Villanova	24-8	12-4	★ 3 seed AP 13
Georgetown	22-10	11-5	5 seed AP 20
Syracuse	21-10	9-7	6 seed
Pittsburgh	13-15	6-10
Connecticut	12-16	5-11
Providence	12-19	4-12
Seton Hall	6-23	1-15

Big Eight8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Missouri	26-8	12-2	★ 2 seed AP 10
Oklahoma	24-9	10-4	7 seed
Oklahoma State	24-7	9-5	🏆 5 seed AP 19
Nebraska	22-10	9-5
Iowa State	13-15	5-9
Kansas	13-16	4-10
Kansas State	12-16	4-10
Colorado	13-15	3-11

Big Sky8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Weber State	23-8	10-4	★ 🏆 9 seed
Nevada	18-11	10-4	★
Montana	21-8	9-5
Idaho	20-9	9-5
Idaho State	10-17	7-7
Boise State	10-17	5-9
Northern Arizona	10-16	3-11
Montana State	10-17	3-11

Big Ten10 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Indiana	24-6	13-5	★ 2 seed AP 5
Purdue	21-9	11-7	5 seed
Ohio State	20-10	11-7	3 seed
Illinois	21-11	11-7	7 seed
Iowa	21-10	10-8	7 seed
Minnesota	18-11	9-9
Michigan State	17-13	9-9
Northwestern	17-13	7-11
Michigan	15-13	6-12
Wisconsin	8-20	3-15

East Coast10 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
American	20-10	7-2	★
Hofstra	18-9	7-2	★
La Salle	18-14	7-2	★ 🏆 12 seed
Rider	20-9	10-3	★
Bucknell	17-11	8-5
Drexel	14-15	5-4
Delaware	11-14	4-9
Lafayette	7-21	3-10
Towson	7-21	2-7
Lehigh	10-16	2-11

ECAC Metro10 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Robert Morris	23-8	12-2	★ 🏆 12 seed
LIU-Brooklyn	20-9	11-3	★
Fairleigh Dickinson	17-12	9-5
Marist	14-15	7-7
St. Francis (PA)	12-17	7-7
St. Francis (NY)	10-18	7-7
Siena	12-16	6-8
Baltimore	10-18	4-10
Loyola (MD)	4-24	3-11
Wagner	10-18	2-12

ECAC North9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Boston University	21-10	8-2	★ 🏆 NCAA
New Hampshire	16-12	8-2	★
Holy Cross	17-13	5-3
Maine	12-14	6-4
Niagara	11-18	5-4
Northeastern	13-15	4-6
Canisius	11-17	3-6
Vermont	10-19	3-7
Colgate	3-24	0-8

ECAC South6 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
William & Mary	20-9	9-0	★
James Madison	20-11	6-3	🏆 10 seed
Navy	18-11	3-3
George Mason	15-12	3-6
East Carolina	16-13	3-7
Richmond	12-16	2-7

Ivy8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Princeton	20-9	12-2	★ 12 seed
Pennsylvania	17-9	11-3
Yale	12-14	7-7
Columbia	10-16	7-7
Cornell	10-16	6-8
Brown	9-17	6-8
Harvard	12-14	4-10
Dartmouth	7-19	3-11

Metro7 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Louisville	32-4	12-0	★ 🏆 1 seed AP 2
Virginia Tech	23-11	7-5
Tulane	19-12	7-5
Memphis State	23-8	6-6	4 seed AP 17
Florida State	14-14	5-7
Southern Mississippi	14-14	3-9
Cincinnati	11-17	1-11

Metro Atlantic6 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Iona	22-9	8-2	★
St. Peter's	22-5	7-3
Fordham	19-11	7-3	🏆
Manhattan	15-13	4-6
Fairfield	13-15	2-8
Army	11-18	2-8

Mid-American10 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Bowling Green	21-9	15-3	★
Ohio	23-9	12-6	🏆 11 seed
Ball State	17-12	10-8
Toledo	17-12	10-8
Miami (OH)	13-15	10-8
Kent State	15-13	9-9
Eastern Michigan	12-16	8-10
Northern Illinois	11-16	8-10
Central Michigan	10-17	5-13
Western Michigan	5-23	3-15

Mid-Continent8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Western Illinois	20-11	9-3	★
SW Missouri State	13-15	6-3
Eastern Illinois	13-18	8-4
Illinois-Chicago	16-12	7-4
Northern Iowa	13-18	6-5
Valparaiso	13-15	4-9
Cleveland State	8-20	1-4
Wisconsin-Green Bay	9-19	2-11

Mid-Eastern7 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Howard	18-8	11-1	★
North Carolina A&T	23-8	9-3	🏆 NCAA
South Carolina State	13-15	5-7
MD-Eastern Shore	10-19	5-7
Delaware State	8-19	5-7
Florida A&M	7-21	4-8
Bethune-Cookman	5-21	3-9

Midwestern City8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Loyola-Chicago	19-10	12-2	★
Xavier	22-8	10-4	🏆 NCAA
Oral Roberts	14-14	10-4
Butler	15-13	9-5
Evansville	13-16	6-8
Detroit	12-17	6-8
Saint Louis	5-23	2-12
Oklahoma City	4-22	1-13

Missouri Valley10 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Wichita State	25-3	17-1	★ AP 14
Illinois State	24-7	13-5	🏆 6 seed
New Mexico State	18-11	11-7
Tulsa	19-12	11-7
Bradley	16-13	10-8
Drake	13-15	9-9
Indiana State	9-19	5-13
Southern Illinois	9-19	5-13
West Texas State	8-20	5-13
Creighton	8-19	4-14

Ohio Valley8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Murray State	21-8	11-3	★
Morehead State	19-11	10-4	🏆 11 seed
Tennessee Tech	16-12	9-5
Akron	14-15	7-7
Eastern Kentucky	10-17	7-7
Youngstown State	15-12	5-9
Austin Peay	11-16	4-10
Middle Tennessee State	7-20	3-11

Pacific Coast9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
UNLV	28-3	15-1	★ 🏆 3 seed AP 6
CSU-Fullerton	21-8	12-4
Utah State	20-9	10-6	10 seed
Fresno State	25-10	9-7
UC Irvine	16-12	8-8
San Jose State	14-15	7-9
Long Beach State	13-16	6-10
Pacific	7-21	4-12
UC Santa Barbara	7-20	1-15

Pacific-1010 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
UCLA	23-6	15-3	★ 2 seed AP 7
Washington State	23-7	14-4	8 seed
Oregon State	20-11	12-6
Arizona State	19-14	12-6
USC	17-11	11-7
Washington	16-15	7-11
California	14-14	7-11
Stanford	14-14	6-12
Oregon	9-18	5-13
Arizona	4-24	1-17

Southeastern10 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Kentucky	23-8	13-5	★ 3 seed AP 12
Mississippi	19-12	10-8
LSU	19-13	10-8
Georgia	24-10	9-9	🏆 4 seed AP 18
Tennessee	20-12	9-9	8 seed
Mississippi State	17-12	9-9
Vanderbilt	19-14	9-9
Alabama	20-12	8-10	6 seed
Auburn	15-13	8-10
Florida	13-18	5-13

Southern9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
UT-Chattanooga	26-4	15-1	★ 🏆 9 seed AP 15
Marshall	20-8	13-3
East Tennessee State	22-9	12-4
Western Carolina	17-12	9-7
Davidson	13-15	8-8
Citadel	12-16	7-9
Furman	9-20	4-12
Appalachian State	6-21	3-13
VMI	2-25	1-15

Southland7 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Lamar	23-8	9-3	★ 🏆 11 seed
Louisiana Tech	19-9	8-4
McNeese State	16-13	6-6
Northeast Louisiana	14-14	6-6
Arkansas State	17-12	5-7
North Texas	15-15	5-7
Texas-Arlington	9-19	3-9

Southwest9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Houston	31-3	16-0	★ 🏆 1 seed AP 1
Arkansas	26-4	14-2	4 seed AP 9
Texas A&M	17-14	10-6
TCU	23-11	9-7
SMU	19-11	9-7
Texas Tech	11-20	7-9
Baylor	12-16	4-12
Rice	8-20	2-14
Texas	6-22	1-15

Southwestern Athletic8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Alabama State	22-6	12-2
Texas Southern	22-7	12-2	★
Alcorn State	22-10	10-4	🏆 12 seed
Southern	16-14	7-7
Mississippi Valley State	11-17	6-8
Jackson State	6-24	4-10
Grambling	6-22	3-11
Prairie View	4-22	2-12

Sun Belt8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Virginia Commonwealth	24-7	12-2	★ 5 seed
Old Dominion	19-10	12-2	★
UAB	19-14	9-5	🏆 10 seed
South Florida	22-10	8-6
South Alabama	16-12	6-8
UNC Charlotte	8-20	5-9
Western Kentucky	12-16	4-10
Jacksonville	7-22	0-14

Trans America8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Arkansas-Little Rock	23-6	12-2	★
Houston Baptist	20-9	10-4
Georgia Southern	18-12	8-6	🏆 NCAA
Centenary	16-13	8-6
Mercer	13-15	6-8
Samford	13-15	6-8
Northwestern State	9-19	5-9
Hardin-Simmons	3-25	1-13

West Coast7 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Pepperdine	20-9	10-2	★ 11 seed
Santa Clara	21-7	9-3
St. Mary's	14-12	7-5
Gonzaga	13-14	5-7
San Diego	11-15	5-7
Portland	10-18	4-8
Loyola Marymount	9-18	2-10

Western Athletic9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
UTEP	19-10	11-5	★
Utah	18-14	11-5	★ 10 seed
BYU	15-14	11-5
Hawaii	17-11	9-7
San Diego State	18-10	8-8
Wyoming	16-13	8-8
New Mexico	14-15	6-10
Colorado State	11-17	6-10
Air Force	10-17	2-14

Independent20 teams

School	W-L	Note
New Orleans	23-7
SW Louisiana	22-7	8 seed
South Carolina	22-9
Stetson	19-9
SE Louisiana	18-9
Marquette	19-10	9 seed
Notre Dame	19-10
Dayton	18-10
DePaul	21-12
Nicholls State	16-12
Charleston Southern	13-14
Utica	11-15
NC-Wilmington	11-16
Tennessee State	11-16
Brooklyn	11-17
Campbell	11-17
TX-San Antonio	10-17
Georgia State	9-19
Texas-Pan American	7-21
US International	3-25

Elo ratings and upsets use the games in our record for this season, which is incomplete before 1995-96; team records come from the season standings.

1983 Elo and upsets

The ten highest-rated teams when the season ended, and the results the ratings gave the winner the least chance of.

1983 Elo and upsetsElo

Elo, top 10

Biggest upsets

Wagner 84, Duke 77
Jan 5 · regular season · 2.7% win chance
St. Mary's 52, Fresno State 51
Jan 4 · regular season · 4.2% win chance
Jacksonville 63, Old Dominion 59
Mar 10 · conference tournament · 6.5% win chance
Penn State 97, Maryland 79
Nov 27 · regular season · 6.5% win chance
Kent State 66, Pepperdine 65
Dec 21 · regular season · 6.5% win chance
Tulsa 84, North Carolina 74
Dec 17 · regular season · 6.8% win chance
Rhode Island 64, St. Joseph's 63
Feb 15 · regular season · 7.6% win chance
St. John's 78, North Carolina 74
Nov 20 · regular season · 7.9% win chance
Saint Louis 79, Xavier 60
Feb 5 · regular season · 8.0% win chance
TX-San Antonio 69, Texas Tech 67
Dec 10 · regular season · 8.3% win chance

Where these numbers come from

Enough to disbelieve this page on purpose rather than by accident.

Champions, brackets, polls and standings are read from the Citizen of Nowhere college basketball database, one season at a time. A section appears only where the database holds its data: the NCAA tournament began in 1939 (earlier champions are retroactive selections), the AP poll in 1949, and game-by-game results, and so the Elo ratings and upsets, in 1950.

Elo ratings and upsets come from the site’s own men’s college basketball Elo, built from every game since 1950. An upset’s win chance is the winner’s pre-game probability from those ratings.