🏀 The 1981-82 men’s college basketball season

What the record holds for this season: the champion, the tournament bracket, the AP poll week by week, the conference tables, and the Elo ratings with the biggest upsets.

Source: Citizen of Nowhere college basketball database · 30 conferences · 48-team tournament

← 1981 1983 →All seasons

Jump to any season1896–2027

2020s

2027livein progress 2026Michigan 2025Florida 2024Connecticut 2023Connecticut 2022Kansas 2021Baylor 2020cancelled

2010s

2019Virginia 2018Villanova 2017North Carolina 2016Villanova 2015Duke 2014Connecticut 2013Louisville 2012Kentucky 2011Connecticut 2010Duke

2000s

2009North Carolina 2008Kansas 2007Florida 2006Florida 2005North Carolina 2004Connecticut 2003Syracuse 2002Maryland 2001Duke 2000Michigan State

1990s

1999Connecticut 1998Kentucky 1997Arizona 1996Kentucky 1995UCLA 1994Arkansas 1993North Carolina 1992Duke 1991Duke 1990UNLV

1980s

1989Michigan 1988Kansas 1987Indiana 1986Louisville 1985Villanova 1984Georgetown 1983North Carolina State 1982North Carolina 1981Indiana 1980Louisville

1970s

1979Michigan State 1978Kentucky 1977Marquette 1976Indiana 1975UCLA 1974North Carolina State 1973UCLA 1972UCLA 1971UCLA 1970UCLA

1960s

1969UCLA 1968UCLA 1967UCLA 1966Texas Western 1965UCLA 1964UCLA 1963Loyola-Chicago 1962Cincinnati 1961Cincinnati 1960Ohio State

1950s

1959California 1958Kentucky 1957North Carolina 1956San Francisco 1955San Francisco 1954La Salle 1953Indiana 1952Kansas 1951Kentucky 1950CCNY

1940s

1949Kentucky 1948Kentucky 1947Holy Cross 1946Oklahoma A&M 1945Oklahoma A&M 1944Utah 1943Wyoming 1942Stanford 1941Wisconsin 1940Indiana

1930s

1939Oregon 1938Temple 1937Stanford 1936 1935 1934 1933 1932Purdue 1931Northwestern 1930

1920s

1929Montana State 1928Pittsburgh 1927 1926Syracuse 1925Princeton 1924North Carolina 1923 1922 1921 1920Pennsylvania

1910s

1919 1918Syracuse 1917Washington State 1916Wisconsin 1915Illinois 1914Wisconsin 1913Navy 1912Wisconsin 1911St. John's 1910

1900s

1909Chicago 1908 1907 1906 1905Columbia 1904Columbia 1903 1902Minnesota 1901 1900

1890s

1899 1898 1897 1896

1982season

← 1981 1983 →

1981-82 national champion

The NCAA tournament winner.

National champion

North Carolina

32-21 seedFinal AP #1

Title gameGeorgetown 62, North Carolina 63 (Mar 29)

Final FourNorth CarolinaGeorgetownLouisvilleHouston

The 1982 NCAA tournament

48 teams. Winners in bold, seeds before each team.

48-team field · 4 regions

First Round

8Wyoming61

9USC58

5West Virginia102

12North Carolina A&T72

7Pepperdine99

10Pittsburgh88

6Iowa70

11Northeast Louisiana63

Second Round

1Georgetown51

8Wyoming43

4Fresno State50

5West Virginia46

2Oregon State70

7Pepperdine51

3Idaho69

6Iowa67

Regional Semifinals

1Georgetown58

4Fresno State40

2Oregon State60

3Idaho42

Regional Finals

1Georgetown69

2Oregon State45

West region

First Round

8Wyoming61

9USC58

5West Virginia102

12North Carolina A&T72

7Pepperdine99

10Pittsburgh88

6Iowa70

11Northeast Louisiana63

Second Round

1Georgetown51

8Wyoming43

4Fresno State50

5West Virginia46

2Oregon State70

7Pepperdine51

3Idaho69

6Iowa67

Regional Semifinals

1Georgetown58

4Fresno State40

2Oregon State60

3Idaho42

Regional Finals

1Georgetown69

2Oregon State45

Mideast region

First Round

7North Carolina State51

10UT-Chattanooga58

6Kentucky44

11Middle Tennessee State50

8SW Louisiana57

9Tennessee61

5Indiana94

12Robert Morris62

Second Round

2Minnesota62

10UT-Chattanooga61

3Louisville81

11Middle Tennessee State56

1Virginia54

9Tennessee51

4UAB80

5Indiana70

Regional Semifinals

2Minnesota61

3Louisville67

1Virginia66

4UAB68

Regional Finals

3Louisville75

4UAB68

East region

First Round

8Ohio State48

9James Madison55

5St. John's66

12Pennsylvania56

7Wake Forest74

10Old Dominion57

6St. Joseph's62

11Northeastern63

Second Round

1North Carolina52

9James Madison50

4Alabama69

5St. John's68

2Memphis State56

7Wake Forest55

3Villanova76

11Northeastern72

Regional Semifinals

1North Carolina74

4Alabama69

2Memphis State66

3Villanova70

Regional Finals

1North Carolina70

3Villanova60

Midwest region

First Round

7Marquette67

10Evansville62

6Houston94

11Alcorn State84

5Kansas State77

12Northern Illinois68

8Boston College70

9San Francisco66

Second Round

2Missouri73

7Marquette69

3Tulsa74

6Houston78

4Arkansas64

5Kansas State65

1DePaul75

8Boston College82

Regional Semifinals

2Missouri78

6Houston79

5Kansas State65

8Boston College69

Regional Finals

6Houston99

8Boston College92

Final Four and the title game

Final Four

1Georgetown50

3Louisville46

West vs Mideast · Mar 27

1North Carolina68

6Houston63

East vs Midwest · Mar 27

Championship game: North Carolina

1Georgetown62

1North Carolina63

West vs East · Mar 29

Conference tournaments

The champion and the other finalist of each of the 23 conference tournaments held in 1981-82.

Conference	Champion	Runner-up	Final
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina 47-45, Mar 7	Virginia	47-45, Mar 7
Big East	Georgetown	Villanova
Big Eight	Missouri 68-63, Mar 4	Oklahoma	68-63, Mar 4
Big Sky	Idaho 85-80, Mar 6	Nevada	85-80, Mar 6
ECAC Metro	Robert Morris 85-84, Mar 7	LIU-Brooklyn	85-84, Mar 7
ECAC North	Northeastern 82-59, Mar 7	Niagara	82-59, Mar 7
East Coast	St. Joseph's 75-65, Mar 8	Drexel	75-65, Mar 8
Eastern 8	Pittsburgh	West Virginia
Metro	Memphis State 73-62, Mar 6	Louisville	73-62, Mar 6
Metro Atlantic	Iona 66-61, Mar 7	St. Peter's	66-61, Mar 7
Mid-American	Northern Illinois 79-75, Mar 3	Ball State	79-75, Mar 3
Mid-Eastern	North Carolina A&T 79-67, Mar 7	Howard	79-67, Mar 7
Midwestern City	Evansville 81-72, Mar 4	Loyola-Chicago	81-72, Mar 4
Missouri Valley	Tulsa 90-77, Mar 7	Illinois State	90-77, Mar 7
Ohio Valley	Middle Tennessee State 54-52, Mar 6	Western Kentucky	54-52, Mar 6
Pacific Coast	Fresno State	CSU-Fullerton
Southeastern	Alabama 48-46, Mar 6	Kentucky	48-46, Mar 6
Southern	UT-Chattanooga 69-58, Mar 6	Davidson	69-58, Mar 6
Southland	SW Louisiana 81-75, Mar 7	Texas-Arlington	81-75, Mar 7
Southwest	Arkansas 84-69, Mar 6	Houston	84-69, Mar 6
Southwestern Athletic	Alcorn State 87-77, Mar 6	Jackson State	87-77, Mar 6
Sun Belt	UAB 94-83, Feb 28	Virginia Commonwealth	94-83, Feb 28
Trans America	Northeast Louisiana 98-85, Mar 5	Centenary	98-85, Mar 5

The 1981-82 AP poll, week by week

Each team's rank in every poll. Tap a rank to read it.

Team	Nov24	Dec1	8	15	22	29	Jan5	12	19	26	Feb2	9	16	23	Mar2	9
North Carolina	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	1	1
DePaul	8	7	7	7	13	8	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2
Virginia	7	5	5	5	4	3	2	3	3	3	3	1	1	1	3	3
Oregon State			19	20	16	15	17	15	12	8	10	6	5	4	4	4
Missouri	15	16	13	11	9	7	4	2	2	1	1	4	4	5	5	5
Georgetown	5	20	20	19	17	17	13	8	13			20	13	12	8	6
Minnesota	10	10	8	8	5	9	6	11	5	10	6	9	8	13	7	7
Idaho							18	14	8	11	15	13	11	9	6	8
Memphis State											19	14	12	10	13	9
Tulsa	11	9	14	12	14	13	10	18	10	16	11	7	6	8	10	10
Fresno State										19	17	18	15	14	12	11
Arkansas	18	13	11	9	6	5	11	9	15	12	14	8	17	15	14	12
Alabama	20	17	16	14	12	12	16	13	16	13	8	10	19	17	18	13
West Virginia											17	11	9	6	9	14
Kentucky	3	2	2	2	2	4	3	6	9	7	9	12	10	7	15	15
Iowa	9	6	6	6	10	10	7	5	6	6	5	5	7	11	11	16
UAB	14	11	9	16	19										20	17
Wake Forest	13									18	13	16	14	18	16	18
UCLA	2	8	17	17	15	16	19							20	19	19
Louisville	4	3	3	3	8	14	12	17	17							20
Kansas State									18	14	19	15	18		17
San Francisco		14	12	10	7	6	8	7	11	9	7	17	16	16
Tennessee									20	15	16			19
Indiana	12	12	10	13	11	11							20
Washington												19
Texas								19	7	5	12
North Carolina State						20	15	12	14	17
Villanova				18	20	19				20
Houston					18	18	14	10	19
Wichita State	6	4	4	4	3	2	9	16
Virginia Tech								20
St. John's							20
SW Louisiana			18	15
UNLV		18	15
BYU		15
Notre Dame	19	19
Georgia	16
LSU	17

Tap a rank to read it.

1982 final AP Top 20

The last Associated Press ranking of the season, with each team's record.

1982 final AP Top 20AP

1North Carolina32-2
2DePaul26-2
3Virginia30-4
4Oregon State25-5
5Missouri27-4
6Georgetown30-7
7Minnesota23-6
8Idaho27-3
9Memphis State24-5
10Tulsa24-6

11Fresno State27-3
12Arkansas23-6
13Alabama24-7
14West Virginia27-4
15Kentucky22-8
16Iowa21-8
17UAB25-6
18Wake Forest21-9
19UCLA21-6
20Louisville23-10

1982 standings by conference

Overall and conference record. A star marks the regular-season champion, a trophy the conference-tournament champion.

1982 standings by conference30 conferences

Atlantic Coast8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
North Carolina	32-2	12-2	★ 🏆 1 seed AP 1
Virginia	30-4	12-2	★ 1 seed AP 3
Wake Forest	21-9	9-5	7 seed AP 18
North Carolina State	22-10	7-7	7 seed
Maryland	16-13	5-9
Clemson	14-14	4-10
Duke	10-17	4-10
Georgia Tech	10-16	3-11

Big East8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Villanova	24-8	11-3	★ 3 seed
Georgetown	30-7	10-4	🏆 1 seed AP 6
St. John's	21-9	9-5	5 seed
Boston College	22-10	8-6	8 seed
Connecticut	17-11	7-7
Syracuse	16-13	7-7
Seton Hall	11-16	2-12
Providence	10-17	2-12

Big Eight8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Missouri	27-4	12-2	★ 🏆 2 seed AP 5
Kansas State	23-8	10-4	5 seed
Oklahoma	22-11	8-6
Nebraska	16-12	7-7
Oklahoma State	15-12	7-7
Iowa State	10-17	5-9
Kansas	13-14	4-10
Colorado	11-16	3-11

Big Sky8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Idaho	27-3	13-1	★ 🏆 3 seed AP 8
Montana	17-10	10-4
Nevada	19-9	9-5
Weber State	15-13	6-8
Boise State	12-14	6-8
Idaho State	14-12	5-9
Montana State	11-18	5-9
Northern Arizona	6-20	2-12

Big Ten10 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Minnesota	23-6	14-4	★ 2 seed AP 7
Iowa	21-8	12-6	6 seed AP 16
Ohio State	21-10	12-6	8 seed
Indiana	19-10	12-6	5 seed
Purdue	18-14	11-7
Illinois	18-11	10-8
Michigan State	11-17	6-12
Michigan	7-20	6-12
Northwestern	8-19	4-14
Wisconsin	6-21	3-15

East Coast12 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Temple	19-8	11-0	★
St. Joseph's	25-5	10-1	🏆 6 seed
American	21-9	8-3
Drexel	19-11	7-4
La Salle	16-13	7-4
West Chester	13-14	8-8
Lafayette	12-15	7-9
Rider	11-16	7-9
Delaware	9-17	6-10
Hofstra	12-16	4-7
Lehigh	9-17	3-13
Bucknell	7-20	3-13

Eastern 88 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
West Virginia	27-4	13-1	★ 5 seed AP 14
Rutgers	20-10	9-5
Pittsburgh	20-10	8-6	🏆 10 seed
St. Bonaventure	14-14	7-7
George Washington	13-14	7-7
Duquesne	11-16	5-9
Rhode Island	10-17	4-10
Massachusetts	7-20	3-11

ECAC Metro11 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Fairleigh Dickinson	16-11	12-3	★
LIU-Brooklyn	20-10	11-4
Robert Morris	17-13	9-5	★ 🏆 12 seed
Baltimore	15-13	8-6
Siena	15-13	8-7
St. Francis (NY)	10-17	8-7
Loyola (MD)	11-16	7-7
Towson	10-17	7-7
Marist	12-14	6-9
St. Francis (PA)	6-20	3-11
Wagner	4-22	1-14

ECAC North9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Northeastern	23-7	8-1	★ 🏆 11 seed
Canisius	19-8	7-2
Niagara	19-10	7-2
Boston University	19-9	6-2
Holy Cross	16-11	4-4
Maine	7-19	3-7
Colgate	8-17	2-6
Vermont	10-16	2-8
New Hampshire	9-18	2-9

ECAC South7 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
James Madison	24-6	10-1	NCAA
Richmond	18-11	6-4
Old Dominion	18-12	5-4	NCAA
William & Mary	16-12	6-5
Navy	12-14	2-4
George Mason	13-14	2-6
East Carolina	10-17	2-8

Ivy8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Pennsylvania	17-10	12-2	★ 12 seed
Columbia	16-10	9-5
Princeton	13-13	9-5
Yale	13-13	7-7
Cornell	10-16	7-7
Harvard	11-15	6-8
Brown	5-21	5-9
Dartmouth	7-19	1-13

Metro7 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Memphis State	24-5	10-2	★ 🏆 2 seed AP 9
Louisville	23-10	8-4	3 seed AP 20
Tulane	19-9	8-4
Virginia Tech	20-11	7-5
Cincinnati	15-12	4-8
Florida State	11-17	4-8
Saint Louis	6-21	1-11

Metro Atlantic6 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
St. Peter's	20-9	9-1	★
Fordham	18-11	8-2
Iona	24-9	7-3	🏆
Manhattan	11-16	3-7
Fairfield	11-18	3-7
Army	5-22	0-10

Mid-American10 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Ball State	17-11	12-4	★
Bowling Green	18-11	10-6
Northern Illinois	16-14	9-7	🏆 12 seed
Eastern Michigan	15-12	8-8
Western Michigan	15-14	8-8
Ohio	13-14	8-8
Miami (OH)	11-16	8-8
Toledo	15-11	7-9
Kent State	10-16	6-10
Central Michigan	10-16	4-12

Mid-Eastern7 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
North Carolina A&T	19-9	10-2	★ 🏆 12 seed
Howard	17-11	9-3
South Carolina State	10-15	7-5
Florida A&M	10-17	5-7
Delaware State	13-13	4-8
Bethune-Cookman	10-18	4-8
MD-Eastern Shore	6-20	3-9

Midwestern City7 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Evansville	23-6	10-2	★ 🏆 10 seed
Oral Roberts	18-12	8-4
Loyola-Chicago	17-12	8-4
Oklahoma City	14-14	6-6
Detroit	10-17	6-6
Butler	7-20	3-9
Xavier	8-20	1-11

Missouri Valley10 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Bradley	26-10	13-3	★
Tulsa	24-6	12-4	🏆 3 seed AP 10
Wichita State	23-6	12-4
New Mexico State	17-11	10-6
Illinois State	17-12	9-7
Drake	12-15	7-9
Southern Illinois	11-16	7-9
Creighton	7-20	4-12
West Texas State	11-15	3-13
Indiana State	9-18	3-13

Ohio Valley9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Murray State	20-8	13-3	★
Western Kentucky	19-10	13-3	★
Middle Tennessee State	22-8	12-4	🏆 11 seed
Morehead State	17-10	11-5
Tennessee Tech	12-14	8-8
Youngstown State	8-18	5-11
Austin Peay	6-20	4-12
Akron	7-19	3-13
Eastern Kentucky	5-21	3-13

Pacific Coast8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Fresno State	27-3	13-1	★ 🏆 4 seed AP 11
UC Irvine	23-7	10-4
CSU-Fullerton	18-14	9-5
San Jose State	13-13	7-7
Long Beach State	12-16	7-7
UC Santa Barbara	10-16	5-9
Pacific	7-20	3-11
Utah State	4-23	2-12

Pacific-1010 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Oregon State	25-5	16-2	★ 2 seed AP 4
UCLA	21-6	14-4	AP 19
USC	19-9	13-5	9 seed
Washington	19-10	11-7
Washington State	16-14	10-8
California	14-13	8-10
Arizona State	13-14	8-10
Arizona	9-18	4-14
Oregon	9-18	4-14
Stanford	7-20	2-16

Southeastern10 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Kentucky	22-8	13-5	★ 6 seed AP 15
Tennessee	20-10	13-5	★ 9 seed
Alabama	24-7	12-6	🏆 4 seed AP 13
Mississippi	18-12	11-7
LSU	14-14	11-7
Georgia	19-12	10-8
Vanderbilt	15-13	7-11
Auburn	14-14	7-11
Mississippi State	8-19	4-14
Florida	5-22	2-16

Southern9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
UT-Chattanooga	27-4	15-1	★ 🏆 10 seed
Western Carolina	19-8	11-5
Davidson	14-15	9-7
Marshall	16-11	8-8
East Tennessee State	13-15	8-8
Citadel	14-14	7-9
Furman	11-16	7-9
Appalachian State	11-15	6-10
VMI	1-25	1-15

Southland6 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
SW Louisiana	24-8	8-2	★ 🏆 8 seed
Lamar	22-7	7-3
Texas-Arlington	16-12	6-4
McNeese State	14-15	4-6
Arkansas State	15-11	3-7
Louisiana Tech	11-16	2-8

Southwest9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Arkansas	23-6	12-4	★ 🏆 4 seed AP 12
Houston	25-8	11-5	6 seed
Texas A&M	20-11	10-6
Baylor	17-11	9-7
TCU	16-13	9-7
Texas Tech	17-11	8-8
Texas	16-11	6-10
Rice	15-15	6-10
SMU	6-21	1-15

Southwestern Athletic7 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Alcorn State	22-8	10-2	★ 🏆 11 seed
Jackson State	19-9	10-2	★
Texas Southern	21-8	8-4
Grambling	12-17	6-6
Mississippi Valley State	6-20	4-8
Southern	7-18	3-9
Prairie View	2-23	1-11

Sun Belt6 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
UAB	25-6	9-1	★ 🏆 4 seed AP 17
Virginia Commonwealth	17-11	7-3
Jacksonville	14-13	5-5
South Florida	17-11	4-6
UNC Charlotte	15-12	3-7
South Alabama	12-16	2-8

Trans America9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Arkansas-Little Rock	19-8	12-4	★
Northwestern State	19-9	10-6
Northeast Louisiana	19-11	9-7	🏆 11 seed
Centenary	17-12	9-7
Mercer	16-11	8-8
Georgia Southern	14-13	8-8
Houston Baptist	13-14	8-8
Samford	11-15	6-10
Hardin-Simmons	6-20	2-14

West Coast8 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Pepperdine	22-7	14-0	★ 7 seed
San Francisco	25-6	11-3	9 seed
Portland	17-10	9-5
Santa Clara	16-11	7-7
Gonzaga	15-12	7-7
San Diego	11-15	4-10
St. Mary's	11-16	3-11
Loyola Marymount	3-24	1-13

Western Athletic9 teams

School	W-L	Conf	Note
Wyoming	23-7	14-2	★ 8 seed
UTEP	20-8	11-5
San Diego State	20-9	11-5
Hawaii	17-10	9-7
BYU	17-13	9-7
New Mexico	14-14	7-9
Utah	11-17	6-10
Air Force	8-19	3-13
Colorado State	8-19	2-14

Independent29 teams

School	W-L	Note
DePaul	26-2	1 seed AP 2
Marquette	23-9	7 seed
Dayton	21-9
New Orleans	18-8
UNLV	20-10
Cleveland State	17-10
SE Louisiana	16-11
Southern Mississippi	15-11
North Texas	15-12
Penn State	15-12
Tennessee State	13-12
Eastern Illinois	14-13
Illinois-Chicago	14-13
Western Illinois	14-13
Wisconsin-Green Bay	14-13
Charleston Southern	13-13
South Carolina	14-15
NC-Wilmington	13-14
Northern Iowa	12-15
Stetson	12-15
Campbell	11-16
Notre Dame	10-17
US International	9-18
Valparaiso	9-18
TX-San Antonio	8-19
Nicholls State	6-20
Texas-Pan American	5-20
Utica	4-22
Georgia State	4-23

Elo ratings and upsets use the games in our record for this season, which is incomplete before 1995-96; team records come from the season standings.

1982 Elo and upsets

The ten highest-rated teams when the season ended, and the results the ratings gave the winner the least chance of.

1982 Elo and upsetsElo

Elo, top 10

1North Carolina2209
2Virginia2110
3Georgetown2041
4Oregon State1983
5Wake Forest1950
6Missouri1940
7DePaul1930
8UCLA1917
9Minnesota1902
10Alabama1883

Biggest upsets

Illinois-Chicago 74, Wisconsin 66
Dec 4 · regular season · 4.0% win chance
Georgia Tech 45, Maryland 43
Dec 23 · regular season · 4.4% win chance
Creighton 71, Bradley 52
Feb 25 · regular season · 4.7% win chance
SMU 67, Houston 66
Jan 16 · regular season · 5.3% win chance
Utah State 79, BYU 74
Dec 26 · regular season · 6.3% win chance
Toledo 76, Arizona State 67
Dec 22 · regular season · 6.7% win chance
Appalachian State 75, Duke 70
Dec 5 · regular season · 6.8% win chance
Davidson 75, Duke 73
Dec 29 · regular season · 7.3% win chance
Nebraska 67, Missouri 51
Feb 6 · regular season · 7.3% win chance
Xavier 74, Oral Roberts 71
Mar 2 · conference tournament · 7.4% win chance

Where these numbers come from

Enough to disbelieve this page on purpose rather than by accident.

Champions, brackets, polls and standings are read from the Citizen of Nowhere college basketball database, one season at a time. A section appears only where the database holds its data: the NCAA tournament began in 1939 (earlier champions are retroactive selections), the AP poll in 1949, and game-by-game results, and so the Elo ratings and upsets, in 1950.

Elo ratings and upsets come from the site’s own men’s college basketball Elo, built from every game since 1950. An upset’s win chance is the winner’s pre-game probability from those ratings.