๐Ÿˆ The 2026 college football season Live

The season as it is played: the current polls and standings, with the full record to follow.

Source: Citizen of Nowhere college football database ยท 11 conferences ยท 0 bowls ยท live season
Jump to any season1869โ€“2026
2026season (in progress)

The forecast

Model forecast, as of Oct 5, 2026, after 384 games.

How this is measured
20,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule, rated on team stats, market futures and the AP poll. Teams are listed by playoff odds, not by a projected seed: the sim does not publish seeds. A star marks the favourite to win its conference, which is who the automatic bid would most likely go to. Notre Dame has no conference title to win.

Projected playoff field

The 12 teams most likely to make the College Football Playoff.

#TeamPlayoffByeTitle
1#3Notre Dame
Independents
98%74%14.8%
2#4Miami FLโ˜…
ACC
91%51%10%
3#2Georgia
SEC
90%39%8.8%
4#5Ohio Stateโ˜…
Big Ten
87%42%12.7%
5#7Indiana
Big Ten
85%42%9.3%
6#6Alabamaโ˜…
SEC
84%55%15.3%
7#1Texas
SEC
79%26%7%
8#12Utahโ˜…
Big 12
59%23%5%
9James Madisonโ˜…
Sun Belt
56%13%1.9%
10#11Texas Tech
Big 12
53%6%1.6%
11#13Oregon
Big Ten
40%4%2.1%
12#8BYU
Big 12
36%6%1.7%

National title odds

Top 10, with the change over the last week.

1#6Alabama15.3%4.1pp
2#3Notre Dame14.8%1.4pp
3#5Ohio State12.7%0.5pp
4#4Miami FL9.9%2.4pp
5#7Indiana9.3%1.6pp
6#2Georgia8.8%0.3pp
7#1Texas7.0%0.3pp
8#12Utah5.0%1pp
9#13Oregon2.1%0.4pp
10James Madison1.9%0.2pp

Projected conference title games

The two teams most likely to reach each title game, with each one's odds of winning the conference.

Projected conference title games10 projected title games
SEC
#6Alabama58% game ยท 35% title
#2Georgia50% game ยท 26% title
Big Ten
#5Ohio State54% game ยท 34% title
#7Indiana48% game ยท 28% title
Big 12
#11Texas Tech53% game ยท 26% title
#12Utah48% game ยท 29% title
ACC
#4Miami FL85% game ยท 61% title
#24SMU27% game ยท 9% title
American
North Texas41% game ยท 21% title
Memphis37% game ยท 21% title
Conference USA
Liberty60% game ยท 36% title
Jacksonville State41% game ยท 21% title
MAC
Toledo59% game ยท 37% title
Western Michigan36% game ยท 18% title
Mountain West
North Dakota State76% game ยท 47% title
New Mexico46% game ยท 23% title
Pac-12
#23Boise State73% game ยท 50% title
Fresno State48% game ยท 22% title
Sun Belt
James Madison78% game ยท 61% title
LA-Lafayette29% game ยท 9% title

This week's picks

AP Week 6 poll games: the model's win chance for the home side and the pick.

How this is measured
Each slate is frozen the day it is published and graded against the final score. The pick blends the model with the posted line 50/50 where a line exists. Market is the posted line's win chance for the home side.
This week's picks19 games this week, 96 of 111 right so far
#2 Georgia
at #7 Alabama
Sat, Oct 10
Model 56%
Market 43%
Georgia
#17 Tennessee
at Arkansas
Sat, Oct 10
Model 27%
Market โ€”
Tennessee
Iowa State
at #10 BYU
Sat, Oct 10
Model 68%
Market 82%
BYU
South Carolina
at #8 Florida
Sat, Oct 10
Model 74%
Market 82%
Florida
#20 Houston
at Kansas State
Sat, Oct 10
Model 63%
Market โ€”
Kansas State
#11 LSU
at #24 Kentucky
Sat, Oct 10
Model 34%
Market 26%
LSU
Texas A&M
at #25 Missouri
Sat, Oct 10
Model 53%
Market 54%
Missouri
#6 Indiana
at Nebraska
Sat, Oct 10
Model 36%
Market 28%
Indiana
Stanford
at #3 Notre Dame
Sat, Oct 10
Model 96%
Market โ€”
Notre Dame
Maryland
at #5 Ohio State
Sat, Oct 10
Model 92%
Market โ€”
Ohio State
#1 Texas
vs Oklahomaneutral
Sat, Oct 10
Model 27%
Market 28%
Texas
UCF
at #19 Oklahoma State
Sat, Oct 10
Model 51%
Market โ€”
Oklahoma State

12 of 19 games shown. See every pick.

Latest graded picks
Indiana
at Rutgers
Pick: Indiana
Indiana 15-47 โœ“
Washington
at USC
Pick: USC
USC 25-21 โœ“
Arkansas
at Texas A&M
Pick: Texas A&M
Texas A&M 34-7 โœ“
Auburn
at Tennessee
Pick: Tennessee
Tennessee 24-14 โœ“
BYU
at TCU
Pick: BYU
BYU 10-17 โœ“
Kentucky
at South Carolina
Pick: South Carolina
Kentucky 34-35 โœ•
Boston College
at SMU
Pick: SMU
SMU 25-16 โœ“
Penn State
at Northwestern
Pick: Penn State
Northwestern 34-13 โœ•

The 2026 poll race

Rank by poll week, 1 at the top, or Elo by week. A poll line breaks where a team was unranked.

How this is measured
The final top five and the champion are drawn in team colours; everyone else is muted until you tap a line or pick a team. The grid under a poll chart has the same ranks, team by week, so a rank can be read as a number as well as a height. Where the College Football Playoff or BCS ranking also ran, switch between it and the AP poll. The Elo view plots each team's rating on the poll dates for the teams that finished in the Elo top 15 or were ranked at any point, and its Show filter works the same way.
TexasGeorgiaNotre DameMiami (FL)Ohio State33 teams ranked at some point ยท tap or drag for that week ยท tap a line to lock it

Tap or drag on the chart to read a team's rank in any week.

AP rank, team by week

TeamAug17Sep8132027Oct4
Texas541111
Georgia322222
Notre Dame433333
Miami (FL)775644
Ohio State116755
Alabama131210876
Indiana654567
BYU1415119108
Mississippi998499
LSU1187101110
Texas Tech121313111211
Utah212017151312
Oregon2621201513
Missouri252320192514
Tennessee201815141715
Florida21816
Mississippi State241617
Oklahoma State1918
USC141412121819
Iowa222118171420
UCLA2321
Houston232222252022
Boise State2223
SMU191716222124
Pittsburgh25
Kentucky24
Penn State18161413
Louisville24242316
Michigan161918
Texas A&M810923
Oklahoma101124
Virginia2525
Washington1719

Tap a rank to read it and highlight that team on the chart above.

Movers

AP rank on Aug 17 against the latest AP rank (Oct 4). NR is not ranked.

Risers

Fallers

2026 latest polls

The most recent ranking in each poll, as of Oct 4.

2026 latest pollsAP, Coaches, Elo

AP and Coaches

Oct 4 final
APTeamCRec
114-0
225-0
335-0
445-0
564-1
675-0
755-0
884-0
9113-1
10104-1
1195-0
12124-0
13133-1
14164-1
15144-1
16154-1
17204-1
183-1
19175-1
20184-1
21224-0
22194-1
234-1
24214-1
25245-0
Coaches only
23
25

Elo top 25

rating, z
1Indiana2035 ยท z +2.6
2Georgia1967 ยท z +2.3
3Ohio State1964 ยท z +2.3
4Miami (FL)1937 ยท z +2.2
5Notre Dame1927 ยท z +2.1
6Texas1906 ยท z +2.0
7Alabama1883 ยท z +1.9
8Oregon1850 ยท z +1.7
9Utah1837 ยท z +1.7
10Texas Tech1831 ยท z +1.6
11Mississippi1803 ยท z +1.5
12BYU1799 ยท z +1.5
13James Madison1786 ยท z +1.4
14Iowa1754 ยท z +1.3
15Duke1746 ยท z +1.2
16LSU1734 ยท z +1.1
17USC1725 ยท z +1.1
18Tennessee1715 ยท z +1.1
19SMU1713 ยท z +1.1
20Oklahoma1712 ยท z +1.0
21Arizona1711 ยท z +1.0
22Missouri1709 ยท z +1.0
23Vanderbilt1694 ยท z +1.0
24Boise State1689 ยท z +0.9
25Michigan1685 ยท z +0.9

The best games of 2026

The ten best games of the season by Game Score. Switch to the Elo score for a second opinion.

How this is measured
Game score is the college football workbook's own rating of how good a game was; it weighs a lot more than the margin. The Elo score is a second view built from the ratings alone: the two teams' average pre-game Elo, plus stakes (150 for the national championship game, 90 for a playoff game or a major bowl, 40 for another bowl or a conference title game, 15 for a rivalry), plus up to 60 for a close finish and 15 for overtime. The Elo view takes its own top ten from every game between major teams. Sort by any column.
The best games of 202610 games
1
#4Texas beat #1Ohio State
24-23 ยท 2026-09-12
1951
Elo score
2
#5Ohio State beat #14Iowa
31-14 ยท 2026-10-03
1870
Elo score
3
#1Texas beat #14Tennessee
20-17 ยท 2026-09-26
1852
Elo score
4
29-23 ยท 2026-09-25
1841
Elo score
5
#8Mississippi beat #7LSU
32-24 ยท 2026-09-19
1832
Elo score
6
41-13 ยท 2026-09-26
1832
Elo score
7
41-38 ยท 2026-09-06
1831
Elo score
8
38-14 ยท 2026-10-03
1830
Elo score
9
52-16 ยท 2026-09-05
1821
Elo score
10
#17Iowa beat #18Michigan
20-19 ยท 2026-09-26
1820
Elo score

Upsets of 2026

The results the ratings gave the winner the least chance of, lowest first.

How this is measured
Win chance is the winner's pre-game probability from the site's college football Elo ratings, home field included, so 3% means the winner would be expected to win about one time in thirty. Games against lower-level opponents count and carry a tag for the level (FCS, Division II and so on). Where the AP poll had ranks, the rank line is shown as context. Elo gap is the loser's pre-game rating minus the winner's.
Upsets of 202610 upsets
1
39-31 ยท 2026-09-12 ยท Unranked over #6
2.4%
win chance
2
37-21 ยท 2026-09-03
3.8%
win chance
3
29-17 ยท 2026-09-05
9.3%
win chance
4
20-7 ยท 2026-09-12
10%
win chance
5
17-13 ยท 2026-10-03
10%
win chance
6
24-17 ยท 2026-10-03
11%
win chance
7
31-21 ยท 2026-09-19 ยท Unranked over #9
11%
win chance
8
33-7 ยท 2026-08-29
13%
win chance
9
24-20 ยท 2026-09-26 ยท Unranked over #13
14%
win chance
10
38-30 ยท 2026-09-12
14%
win chance

2026 standings by conference

Every conference at once: conference and overall record, and the final AP rank. A star marks the conference champion.

2026 standings by conference11 groups

American Athletic

14 teams
#TeamConfAll
1Florida Atlantic1-04-1
2Memphis1-04-1
3TX-San Antonio1-04-1
4North Texas1-03-2
5UAB1-03-2
6South Florida1-14-1
7Army1-12-2
8Temple1-12-3
9Tulsa0-13-2
10Navy0-21-3
11Rice0-11-4
12Charlotte0-10-5
13East Carolina-2-2
14Tulane-2-2

Atlantic Coast

17 teams
#TeamConfAll
1Duke1-04-0
2Miami (FL)3-05-0
3Pittsburgh2-05-0
4SMU2-14-1
5Wake Forest2-14-1
6Clemson2-13-2
7Virginia Tech1-14-1
8Florida State1-13-2
9North Carolina State1-13-2
10Virginia1-13-2
11California1-12-3
12Louisville1-22-3
13Stanford1-32-3
14North Carolina0-12-2
15Syracuse0-22-2
16Boston College0-22-3
17Georgia Tech0-11-3

Big 12

16 teams
#TeamConfAll
1BYU2-04-0
2Texas Tech2-05-0
3Utah1-04-0
4Baylor2-04-1
5Oklahoma State1-03-1
6Arizona1-14-1
7Cincinnati1-14-1
8Houston1-14-1
9Central Florida1-13-2
10Iowa State1-13-2
11Arizona State1-12-2
12Kansas State0-13-1
13West Virginia0-23-2
14Kansas0-12-2
15Colorado0-22-3
16TCU0-22-3

Big Ten

18 teams
#TeamConfAll
1Indiana2-05-0
2Nebraska2-05-0
3UCLA2-04-0
4Minnesota2-04-1
5Ohio State2-04-1
6Wisconsin2-04-1
7Oregon1-03-1
8USC2-15-1
9Iowa1-14-1
10Northwestern1-13-1
11Purdue1-12-3
12Michigan0-23-2
13Penn State0-23-2
14Washington0-23-2
15Illinois0-22-3
16Maryland0-22-3
17Michigan State0-22-3
18Rutgers0-21-4

Mid-American

13 teams
#TeamConfAll
1Toledo1-04-1
2Central Michigan1-03-2
3Ohio1-03-2
4Western Michigan1-03-2
5Eastern Michigan2-03-3
6Bowling Green1-01-4
7Massachusetts1-14-1
8Kent State1-12-3
9Buffalo0-12-3
10Miami (OH)0-12-3
11Akron0-11-4
12Ball State0-21-4
13Sacramento State0-21-4

Mountain West

10 teams
#TeamConfAll
1North Dakota State2-05-0
2New Mexico1-04-1
3San Jose State1-03-2
4UNLV1-03-2
5Air Force1-13-1
6Wyoming1-12-3
7Nevada0-11-3
8Hawaii0-31-4
9UTEP0-11-4
10Northern Illinois-0-4

Pacific-12

8 teams
#TeamConfAll
1Boise State1-04-1
2Fresno State1-04-1
3Oregon State1-03-2
4San Diego State1-02-3
5Colorado State0-12-3
6Texas State0-12-3
7Utah State0-11-4
8Washington State0-11-4

Southeastern

16 teams
#TeamConfAll
1Alabama3-05-0
2Georgia3-05-0
3Texas1-04-0
4Florida2-14-1
5Kentucky2-14-1
6Mississippi State2-14-1
7LSU1-14-1
8Missouri1-14-1
9Tennessee1-14-1
10Mississippi1-13-1
11Auburn1-23-2
12Texas A&M1-23-2
13Vanderbilt0-23-2
14Oklahoma0-12-2
15Arkansas0-22-3
16South Carolina0-32-3

Sun Belt

14 teams
#TeamConfAll
East
1James Madison2-05-0
2Georgia State1-04-1
3Georgia Southern1-02-3
4Marshall0-13-2
5Coastal Carolina0-11-4
6Old Dominion0-21-4
7Appalachian State-3-1
West
1LA-Lafayette1-04-1
2South Alabama1-03-2
3Arkansas State0-12-3
4LA-Monroe0-10-5
5Louisiana Tech-2-2
6Troy-2-2
7Southern Mississippi-1-3

Independent

2 teams
#TeamConfAll
1Notre Dame-5-0
2Connecticut-2-3

Where these numbers come from

Enough to disbelieve this page on purpose rather than by accident.

Champions, polls, standings, bowls, honours and games are read from the Citizen of Nowhere college football database, built from its own workbook one season at a time. Team colours and crests are the current programsโ€™, so a school is drawn the way it looks today even where it played under another name.

The AP poll begins in 1936, so earlier seasons have no poll race and no final poll, but they do have an Elo race, and their champions are those the selectors named. Before 1992 there was no title game, so those seasons list the major bowls instead; from 1992 the title game is shown with the other major bowls, and from 2014 the playoff bracket. Where the database has no entry for a section, the section is left out rather than shown empty.

Elo ratings, the upsets and the best games come from the siteโ€™s college football Elo, which rates every game since 1869 and counts games against lower-level opponents. Each seasonโ€™s ratings are shown on a scale where the average major team ends the season at 1500; z is the distance from that average in standard deviations.

2026 is in progress. The polls and standings above come from live feeds and refresh through the day; the champion, honours and best games appear once the season is in the database.