Bond yields

Ten-year government bond yields, and how far they sit above the policy rate.

as of 2026-10-21 · 34 countries, latest month 2026-10 · OECD via FRED, Federal Reserve H.15 · term spread = 10-year yield minus policy rate

Refreshed 18 Oct

Where yields stand

Latest ten-year yield, the policy rate in force that month, and the gap between them.

How this is measured
The spread is measured against the policy rate in force at the END of each month: the country's own central bank from the Rates tab, or for a euro member the ECB from the date it joined, with its own pre-euro bank before that where the Rates tab holds one. A month with no policy rate on record is left out, never estimated. The Fed figure is its target range midpoint, as on the Rates tab. A series whose latest month is more than 12 months old is marked stale: its yield shows with its date, but it carries no current spread and no inversion flag. Months inverted is the share of all months on record with a negative spread.
1
Norway
10y 4.41% · 2026-09 · policy 4.5%
term spread −0.09 pts
inverted
2
Hungary
10y 5.46% · 2026-08 · policy 5.5%
term spread −0.04 pts
inverted
3
Switzerland
10y 0.59% · 2026-09 · policy 0.0%
term spread +0.59 pts
4
Israel
10y 4.08% · 2026-09 · policy 3.25%
term spread +0.83 pts
5
Australia
10y 5.28% · 2026-09 · policy 4.35%
term spread +0.93 pts
6
Germany
10y 3.47% · 2026-09 · policy 2.5%
term spread +0.97 pts
7
Netherlands
10y 3.29% · 2026-08 · policy 2.25%
term spread +1.04 pts
8
Ireland
10y 3.35% · 2026-08 · policy 2.25%
term spread +1.10 pts
9
Luxembourg
10y 3.40% · 2026-08 · policy 2.25%
term spread +1.15 pts
10
Austria
10y 3.41% · 2026-08 · policy 2.25%
term spread +1.16 pts
11
Czechia
10y 4.91% · 2026-08 · policy 3.75%
term spread +1.16 pts
12
Denmark
10y 3.01% · 2026-08 · policy 1.85%
term spread +1.16 pts

Stale, no current spread: Iceland (last 2022-08), Russia (last 2018-06).

The term spread over forty years

Pick a country; shaded bands mark months when the ten-year yield sat below the policy rate.

How this is measured
Under the chart, every inversion on record for that country: each unbroken run of months with a negative spread, its length and its deepest point. The chart shows the last forty years; the list goes back to the first month with a policy rate.
United States10-year yieldPolicy rateInvertedmonthly averages

Tap or drag on the chart: the nearest period's yield, policy rate and spread.

Federal Reserve rate. Inverted 13.6% of months since 1953-04.

Every inversion in United States, 18 in all

1
2025-08
to 2025-08 · 1 month
deepest spread −0.12 pts
2
2025-03
to 2025-04 · 2 months
deepest spread −0.09 pts
3
2022-12
to 2024-11 · 24 months
deepest spread −1.56 pts
4
2020-02
to 2020-02 · 1 month
deepest spread −0.12 pts
5
2019-06
to 2019-09 · 4 months
deepest spread −0.50 pts
6
2007-11
to 2007-12 · 2 months
deepest spread −0.35 pts
7
2006-06
to 2007-09 · 16 months
deepest spread −0.69 pts
8
2006-03
to 2006-03 · 1 month
deepest spread −0.03 pts
9
2006-01
to 2006-01 · 1 month
deepest spread −0.08 pts
10
2000-04
to 2001-03 · 12 months
deepest spread −1.26 pts
11
1998-12
to 1999-01 · 2 months
deepest spread −0.11 pts
12
1998-07
to 1998-10 · 4 months
deepest spread −0.47 pts

Where these numbers come from

Ten-year yields: for the United States, the Federal Reserve's H.15 monthly average via datahub.io, with the daily series (FRED DGS10) supplying recent months and the latest close when the refresh can reach FRED. For the other 33 countries, the OECD Main Economic Indicators long-term government bond yield (10-year), monthly, via FRED (series IRLTLT01 plus the country code, for example IRLTLT01GBM156N for the UK). Policy rates come from the Rates tab: each central bank's own decision table, with BIS CBPOL for the rest, and the ECB for euro members from the date they joined. Generated 2026-10-21.