The expectation ledger

The 2024 season, against expectation

Every game of 2024scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
285
Model Brier
0.2126
Market Brier
0.2025
Longest odds beaten
11.8%
Chicago Bears

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2024.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2024 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2024-09-05Baltimore RavensatKansas City Chiefs61.0%20-27
2024-09-06Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles43.7%29-34
2024-09-08Tennessee TitansatChicago Bears63.7%17-24
2024-09-08New England PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals76.5%16-10
2024-09-08Arizona CardinalsatBuffalo Bills81.5%28-34
2024-09-08Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks62.5%20-26
2024-09-08Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns49.5%33-17
2024-09-08Washington CommandersatTampa Bay Buccaneers76.3%20-37
2024-09-08Las Vegas RaidersatLos Angeles Chargers51.1%10-22
2024-09-08Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts54.2%29-27
2024-09-08Jacksonville JaguarsatMiami Dolphins65.8%17-20
2024-09-08Pittsburgh SteelersatAtlanta Falcons45.5%18-10
2024-09-08Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants56.3%28-6
2024-09-08Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions65.9%20-26
2024-09-08Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints78.9%10-47
2024-09-09New York JetsatSan Francisco 49ers80.3%19-32
2024-09-12Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins48.4%31-10
2024-09-15San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings41.4%17-23
2024-09-15Chicago BearsatHouston Texans63.1%13-19
2024-09-15Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs75.9%25-26
2024-09-15Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos46.2%13-6
2024-09-15Cleveland BrownsatJacksonville Jaguars59.8%18-13
2024-09-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions65.7%20-16
2024-09-15Los Angeles RamsatArizona Cardinals46.1%10-41
2024-09-15Los Angeles ChargersatCarolina Panthers41.2%26-3
2024-09-15Indianapolis ColtsatGreen Bay Packers70.5%10-16
2024-09-15New York GiantsatWashington Commanders51.6%18-21
2024-09-15New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys68.0%44-19
2024-09-15New York JetsatTennessee Titans55.9%24-17
2024-09-15Seattle SeahawksatNew England Patriots49.2%23-20
2024-09-15Las Vegas RaidersatBaltimore Ravens75.7%26-23
2024-09-16Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles74.4%22-21
2024-09-19New England PatriotsatNew York Jets64.9%3-24
2024-09-22San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams37.9%24-27
2024-09-22Chicago BearsatIndianapolis Colts55.3%16-21
2024-09-22Denver BroncosatTampa Bay Buccaneers73.8%26-7
2024-09-22New York GiantsatCleveland Browns70.2%21-15
2024-09-22Detroit LionsatArizona Cardinals44.0%20-13
2024-09-22Los Angeles ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers69.6%10-20
2024-09-22Kansas City ChiefsatAtlanta Falcons28.3%22-17
2024-09-22Baltimore RavensatDallas Cowboys54.6%28-25
2024-09-22Miami DolphinsatSeattle Seahawks60.9%3-24
2024-09-22Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints66.5%15-12
2024-09-22Green Bay PackersatTennessee Titans37.8%30-14
2024-09-22Carolina PanthersatLas Vegas Raidersshock80.6%36-22
2024-09-22Houston TexansatMinnesota Vikings61.4%7-34
2024-09-23Washington CommandersatCincinnati Bengals75.4%38-33
2024-09-23Jacksonville JaguarsatBuffalo Bills81.7%10-47
2024-09-26Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants45.8%20-15
2024-09-29Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears54.6%18-24
2024-09-29Cincinnati BengalsatCarolina Panthers42.1%34-24
2024-09-29Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Ravens50.3%10-35
2024-09-29Denver BroncosatNew York Jets59.4%10-9
2024-09-29Cleveland BrownsatLas Vegas Raiders56.7%16-20
2024-09-29Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers54.1%16-33
2024-09-29Washington CommandersatArizona Cardinals62.1%42-14
2024-09-29Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Chargers33.4%17-10
2024-09-29Pittsburgh SteelersatIndianapolis Colts41.1%24-27
2024-09-29New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons39.1%24-26
2024-09-29Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans67.0%20-24
2024-09-29Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers59.8%31-29
2024-09-29New England PatriotsatSan Francisco 49ers81.7%13-30
2024-09-30Tennessee TitansatMiami Dolphins73.6%31-12
2024-09-30Seattle SeahawksatDetroit Lions63.1%29-42
2024-10-03Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons44.6%30-36
2024-10-06Carolina PanthersatChicago Bears75.2%10-36
2024-10-06Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals41.1%41-38
2024-10-06Buffalo BillsatHouston Texans42.4%20-23
2024-10-06Las Vegas RaidersatDenver Broncos64.2%18-34
2024-10-06Cleveland BrownsatWashington Commanders60.0%13-34
2024-10-06Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars53.4%34-37
2024-10-06Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers61.5%20-17
2024-10-06Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots52.9%15-10
2024-10-06New York GiantsatSeattle Seahawks72.8%29-20
2024-10-06New York JetsatMinnesota Vikings63.7%17-23
2024-10-06Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams46.9%24-19
2024-10-06Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ersshock83.8%24-23
2024-10-07New Orleans SaintsatKansas City Chiefs75.5%13-26
2024-10-10San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks44.4%36-24
2024-10-13Jacksonville JaguarsatChicago Bears55.8%16-35
2024-10-13Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Giants54.8%17-7
2024-10-13Los Angeles ChargersatDenver Broncos66.2%23-16
2024-10-13Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles70.9%16-20
2024-10-13Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints62.2%51-27
2024-10-13Arizona CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers79.3%13-34
2024-10-13Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans54.2%20-17
2024-10-13Washington CommandersatBaltimore Ravens78.6%23-30
2024-10-13Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys55.5%47-9
2024-10-13Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers41.5%38-20
2024-10-13Houston TexansatNew England Patriots38.2%41-21
2024-10-13Pittsburgh SteelersatLas Vegas Raiders43.9%32-13
2024-10-14Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets38.7%23-20
2024-10-17Denver BroncosatNew Orleans Saints59.8%33-10
2024-10-20Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns45.0%21-14
2024-10-20Tennessee TitansatBuffalo Bills83.2%10-34
2024-10-20Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts61.3%10-16
2024-10-20Carolina PanthersatWashington Commanders79.3%7-40
2024-10-20Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants46.0%28-3
2024-10-20Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons60.0%34-14
2024-10-20New England PatriotsatJacksonville Jaguars59.0%16-32
2024-10-20New York JetsatPittsburgh Steelers74.1%15-37
2024-10-20Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings53.0%31-29
2024-10-20Houston TexansatGreen Bay Packers64.0%22-24
2024-10-20Las Vegas RaidersatLos Angeles Rams64.2%15-20
2024-10-20Kansas City ChiefsatSan Francisco 49ers49.6%28-18
2024-10-21Baltimore RavensatTampa Bay Buccaneers45.5%41-31
2024-10-21Los Angeles ChargersatArizona Cardinals44.8%15-17
2024-10-24Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams42.7%20-30
2024-10-27Chicago BearsatWashington Commanders55.6%15-18
2024-10-27Philadelphia EaglesatCincinnati Bengals56.6%37-17
2024-10-27Buffalo BillsatSeattle Seahawks41.7%31-10
2024-10-27Carolina PanthersatDenver Broncos84.9%14-28
2024-10-27Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns23.4%24-29
2024-10-27Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers71.3%31-26
2024-10-27Arizona CardinalsatMiami Dolphins64.9%28-27
2024-10-27New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Chargers63.2%8-26
2024-10-27Kansas City ChiefsatLas Vegas Raiders19.8%27-20
2024-10-27Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans66.1%20-23
2024-10-27Green Bay PackersatJacksonville Jaguars38.0%30-27
2024-10-27New York JetsatNew England Patriots43.7%22-25
2024-10-27Tennessee TitansatDetroit Lions85.9%14-52
2024-10-27Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers68.4%24-30
2024-10-28New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers80.9%18-26
2024-10-31Houston TexansatNew York Jets41.6%13-21
2024-11-03Chicago BearsatArizona Cardinals47.0%9-29
2024-11-03Las Vegas RaidersatCincinnati Bengals72.8%24-41
2024-11-03Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills83.8%27-30
2024-11-03Denver BroncosatBaltimore Ravens72.9%10-41
2024-11-03Los Angeles ChargersatCleveland Browns49.1%27-10
2024-11-03Indianapolis ColtsatMinnesota Vikings68.7%13-21
2024-11-03Washington CommandersatNew York Giants44.8%27-22
2024-11-03Dallas CowboysatAtlanta Falcons52.3%21-27
2024-11-03Jacksonville JaguarsatPhiladelphia Eagles78.5%23-28
2024-11-03Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers51.3%24-14
2024-11-03New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers38.4%22-23
2024-11-03New England PatriotsatTennessee Titans64.9%17-20
2024-11-03Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks58.0%26-20
2024-11-04Tampa Bay BuccaneersatKansas City Chiefs83.3%24-30
2024-11-07Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens76.7%34-35
2024-11-10San Francisco 49ersatTampa Bay Buccaneers43.6%23-20
2024-11-10New England PatriotsatChicago Bears75.2%19-3
2024-11-10Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts32.4%30-20
2024-11-10Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs82.8%14-16
2024-11-10New York JetsatArizona Cardinals58.4%6-31
2024-11-10Tennessee TitansatLos Angeles Chargers75.5%17-27
2024-11-10Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Commanders47.3%28-27
2024-11-10Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys44.8%34-6
2024-11-10Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints50.4%17-20
2024-11-10New York GiantsatCarolina Panthers37.6%17-20
2024-11-10Minnesota VikingsatJacksonville Jaguars39.2%12-7
2024-11-10Detroit LionsatHouston Texans36.9%26-23
2024-11-11Miami DolphinsatLos Angeles Rams70.1%23-15
2024-11-14Washington CommandersatPhiladelphia Eagles74.4%18-26
2024-11-17Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears37.1%20-19
2024-11-17Cincinnati BengalsatLos Angeles Chargers63.1%27-34
2024-11-17Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills51.9%21-30
2024-11-17Atlanta FalconsatDenver Broncos64.9%6-38
2024-11-17Cleveland BrownsatNew Orleans Saints63.9%14-35
2024-11-17Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets55.4%28-27
2024-11-17Las Vegas RaidersatMiami Dolphins70.3%19-34
2024-11-17Jacksonville JaguarsatDetroit Lions88.0%6-52
2024-11-17Los Angeles RamsatNew England Patriots45.5%28-22
2024-11-17Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers51.1%16-18
2024-11-17Minnesota VikingsatTennessee Titans32.8%23-13
2024-11-17Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers78.4%20-17
2024-11-18Houston TexansatDallas Cowboys52.6%34-10
2024-11-21Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns27.5%19-24
2024-11-24San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers57.4%10-38
2024-11-24Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears34.2%30-27
2024-11-24Denver BroncosatLas Vegas Raiders35.3%29-19
2024-11-24Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Giants41.6%30-7
2024-11-24Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks60.9%6-16
2024-11-24Kansas City ChiefsatCarolina Panthers13.0%30-27
2024-11-24Detroit LionsatIndianapolis Colts26.9%24-6
2024-11-24Dallas CowboysatWashington Commanders67.7%34-26
2024-11-24New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins73.5%15-34
2024-11-24Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Rams39.7%37-20
2024-11-24Tennessee TitansatHouston Texansshock79.8%32-27
2024-11-25Baltimore RavensatLos Angeles Chargers45.8%30-23
2024-11-28Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions89.5%20-23
2024-11-28New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys75.2%20-27
2024-11-28Miami DolphinsatGreen Bay Packers73.7%17-30
2024-11-29Las Vegas RaidersatKansas City Chiefs92.0%17-19
2024-12-01San Francisco 49ersatBuffalo Bills75.5%10-35
2024-12-01Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals46.7%44-38
2024-12-01Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers30.9%26-23
2024-12-01Arizona CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings77.3%22-23
2024-12-01Los Angeles ChargersatAtlanta Falcons46.5%17-13
2024-12-01Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots46.0%25-24
2024-12-01Tennessee TitansatWashington Commanders67.1%19-42
2024-12-01Philadelphia EaglesatBaltimore Ravens60.5%24-19
2024-12-01Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars43.1%23-20
2024-12-01Seattle SeahawksatNew York Jets47.2%26-21
2024-12-01Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints56.4%21-14
2024-12-02Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos76.8%32-41
2024-12-05Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions71.4%31-34
2024-12-08Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Rams30.2%42-44
2024-12-08Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers82.6%14-27
2024-12-08Las Vegas RaidersatTampa Bay Buccaneers79.7%13-28
2024-12-08Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals49.6%30-18
2024-12-08Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefs78.3%17-19
2024-12-08New York JetsatMiami Dolphins69.9%26-32
2024-12-08Carolina PanthersatPhiladelphia Eagles93.0%16-22
2024-12-08Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings79.8%21-42
2024-12-08New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giants44.1%14-11
2024-12-08Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans58.6%10-6
2024-12-08Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers77.4%13-38
2024-12-09Cincinnati BengalsatDallas Cowboys58.4%27-20
2024-12-12Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers65.7%12-6
2024-12-15Cincinnati BengalsatTennessee Titans39.6%37-27
2024-12-15Buffalo BillsatDetroit Lions63.1%48-42
2024-12-15Indianapolis ColtsatDenver Broncos73.2%13-31
2024-12-15Kansas City ChiefsatCleveland Browns18.4%21-7
2024-12-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatLos Angeles Chargers61.6%40-17
2024-12-15New England PatriotsatArizona Cardinals69.5%17-30
2024-12-15Washington CommandersatNew Orleans Saints53.7%20-19
2024-12-15Dallas CowboysatCarolina Panthers37.8%30-14
2024-12-15Miami DolphinsatHouston Texans63.8%12-20
2024-12-15Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles68.8%13-27
2024-12-15Baltimore RavensatNew York Giants17.7%35-14
2024-12-15New York JetsatJacksonville Jaguars62.0%32-25
2024-12-15Green Bay PackersatSeattle Seahawks49.2%30-13
2024-12-16Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings84.3%12-30
2024-12-16Atlanta FalconsatLas Vegas Raiders47.3%15-9
2024-12-19Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargers49.3%27-34
2024-12-21Houston TexansatKansas City Chiefs80.4%19-27
2024-12-21Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens67.2%17-34
2024-12-22San Francisco 49ersatMiami Dolphins50.7%17-29
2024-12-22Detroit LionsatChicago Bears19.0%34-17
2024-12-22Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals76.7%6-24
2024-12-22New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills93.2%21-24
2024-12-22Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys44.8%24-26
2024-12-22Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers36.0%30-36
2024-12-22Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts70.9%30-38
2024-12-22Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Commanders30.5%33-36
2024-12-22New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons75.9%7-34
2024-12-22Jacksonville JaguarsatLas Vegas Raiders50.1%14-19
2024-12-22Los Angeles RamsatNew York Jets41.0%19-9
2024-12-22Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks43.7%27-24
2024-12-23New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers82.6%0-34
2024-12-25Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers37.7%29-10
2024-12-25Baltimore RavensatHouston Texans39.5%31-2
2024-12-26Seattle SeahawksatChicago Bears40.4%6-3
2024-12-28Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals56.5%24-30
2024-12-28Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams77.4%9-13
2024-12-28Los Angeles ChargersatNew England Patriots31.9%40-7
2024-12-29New York JetsatBuffalo Bills90.4%14-40
2024-12-29Miami DolphinsatCleveland Brownsstarters rested40.1%20-3
2024-12-29Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers86.4%14-48
2024-12-29Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Giantsstarters rested36.7%33-45
2024-12-29Atlanta FalconsatWashington Commanders67.1%24-30
2024-12-29Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eaglesstarters rested82.0%7-41
2024-12-29Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguarsstarters rested63.2%13-20
2024-12-29Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings56.8%25-27
2024-12-29Las Vegas RaidersatNew Orleans Saintsstarters rested70.9%25-10
2024-12-30Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers32.1%40-34
2025-01-04Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers59.8%19-17
2025-01-04Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens91.8%10-35
2025-01-05San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinalsstarters rested44.3%24-47
2025-01-05Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packersshock88.2%24-22
2025-01-05Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriotsstarters rested11.6%16-23
2025-01-05Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncosstarters rested29.8%0-38
2025-01-05New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers80.6%19-27
2025-01-05Los Angeles ChargersatLas Vegas Raiders35.4%34-20
2025-01-05Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Coltsstarters rested64.1%23-26
2025-01-05Washington CommandersatDallas Cowboysstarters rested51.5%23-19
2025-01-05Miami DolphinsatNew York Jetsstarters rested40.2%20-32
2025-01-05New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eaglesstarters rested92.3%13-20
2025-01-05Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falconsstarters rested77.3%44-38
2025-01-05Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions67.5%9-31
2025-01-05Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Ramsstarters rested66.7%30-25
2025-01-05Houston TexansatTennessee Titans33.1%23-14
2025-01-11Los Angeles ChargersatHouston Texans53.0%12-32
2025-01-11Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens78.6%14-28
2025-01-12Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills71.0%7-31
2025-01-12Washington CommandersatTampa Bay Buccaneers63.7%23-20
2025-01-12Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles68.7%10-22
2025-01-13Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams47.5%9-27
2025-01-18Houston TexansatKansas City Chiefs77.1%14-23
2025-01-18Washington CommandersatDetroit Lionsshock80.2%45-31
2025-01-19Baltimore RavensatBuffalo Bills57.4%25-27
2025-01-19Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles75.0%22-28
2025-01-26Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs58.7%29-32
2025-01-26Washington CommandersatPhiladelphia Eagles73.2%23-55
2025-02-09Kansas City ChiefsvsPhiladelphia Eagles52.5%22-40

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