The expectation ledger

The 2023 season, against expectation

Every game of 2023scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
285
Model Brier
0.2331
Market Brier
0.2172
Longest odds beaten
12.6%
Arizona Cardinals

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2023.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2023 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2023-09-07Detroit LionsatKansas City Chiefs79.0%21-20
2023-09-10San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers46.7%30-7
2023-09-10Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears39.1%38-20
2023-09-10Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns38.2%3-24
2023-09-10Las Vegas RaidersatDenver Broncos50.7%17-16
2023-09-10Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings63.9%20-17
2023-09-10Arizona CardinalsatWashington Commanders68.3%16-20
2023-09-10Miami DolphinsatLos Angeles Chargers61.4%36-34
2023-09-10Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts45.4%31-21
2023-09-10Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants44.2%40-0
2023-09-10Philadelphia EaglesatNew England Patriots46.5%25-20
2023-09-10Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons56.8%10-24
2023-09-10Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks66.2%30-13
2023-09-10Houston TexansatBaltimore Ravens77.3%9-25
2023-09-10Tennessee TitansatNew Orleans Saints65.2%15-16
2023-09-11Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets31.8%16-22
2023-09-14Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles73.8%28-34
2023-09-17San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams36.1%30-23
2023-09-17Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers77.0%17-27
2023-09-17Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals68.7%27-24
2023-09-17Las Vegas RaidersatBuffalo Bills74.0%10-38
2023-09-17Washington CommandersatDenver Broncos46.3%35-33
2023-09-17New York GiantsatArizona Cardinals54.2%31-28
2023-09-17Los Angeles ChargersatTennessee Titans53.7%24-27
2023-09-17Kansas City ChiefsatJacksonville Jaguars41.3%17-9
2023-09-17Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans55.1%31-20
2023-09-17New York JetsatDallas Cowboys78.4%10-30
2023-09-17Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots56.9%24-17
2023-09-17Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons50.5%24-25
2023-09-17Seattle SeahawksatDetroit Lions67.1%37-31
2023-09-18Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers54.9%22-26
2023-09-18New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers51.3%20-17
2023-09-21New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers82.5%12-30
2023-09-24Chicago BearsatKansas City Chiefs90.6%10-41
2023-09-24Buffalo BillsatWashington Commanders44.1%37-3
2023-09-24Denver BroncosatMiami Dolphins75.9%20-70
2023-09-24Tennessee TitansatCleveland Browns66.3%3-27
2023-09-24Dallas CowboysatArizona Cardinals27.6%16-28
2023-09-24Los Angeles ChargersatMinnesota Vikings60.2%28-24
2023-09-24Indianapolis ColtsatBaltimore Ravens75.9%22-19
2023-09-24Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions59.3%6-20
2023-09-24Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars80.3%37-17
2023-09-24New England PatriotsatNew York Jets56.2%15-10
2023-09-24New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers60.9%17-18
2023-09-24Carolina PanthersatSeattle Seahawks65.5%27-37
2023-09-24Pittsburgh SteelersatLas Vegas Raiders51.7%23-18
2023-09-25Los Angeles RamsatCincinnati Bengals73.4%16-19
2023-09-25Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers43.4%25-11
2023-09-28Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers63.5%34-20
2023-10-01Denver BroncosatChicago Bears53.8%31-28
2023-10-01Cincinnati BengalsatTennessee Titans39.0%3-27
2023-10-01Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills71.6%20-48
2023-10-01Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns60.9%28-3
2023-10-01Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints63.4%26-9
2023-10-01Las Vegas RaidersatLos Angeles Chargers66.7%17-24
2023-10-01Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets25.0%23-20
2023-10-01Los Angeles RamsatIndianapolis Colts55.9%29-23
2023-10-01Washington CommandersatPhiladelphia Eagles79.3%31-34
2023-10-01New England PatriotsatDallas Cowboys72.1%3-38
2023-10-01Atlanta FalconsvsJacksonville Jaguars48.7%7-23
2023-10-01Minnesota VikingsatCarolina Panthers52.8%21-13
2023-10-01Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Texans38.2%6-30
2023-10-01Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers85.3%16-35
2023-10-02Seattle SeahawksatNew York Giants52.2%24-3
2023-10-05Chicago BearsatWashington Commanders77.1%40-20
2023-10-08Cincinnati BengalsatArizona Cardinals41.7%34-20
2023-10-08Buffalo BillsvsJacksonville Jaguars26.7%20-25
2023-10-08New York JetsatDenver Broncos56.0%31-21
2023-10-08Kansas City ChiefsatMinnesota Vikings32.3%27-20
2023-10-08Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts49.4%16-23
2023-10-08New York GiantsatMiami Dolphins73.5%16-31
2023-10-08Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Rams36.3%23-14
2023-10-08Houston TexansatAtlanta Falcons60.4%19-21
2023-10-08Carolina PanthersatDetroit Lions77.1%24-42
2023-10-08New Orleans SaintsatNew England Patriots57.6%34-0
2023-10-08Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers48.5%10-17
2023-10-08Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers69.3%10-42
2023-10-09Green Bay PackersatLas Vegas Raiders49.0%13-17
2023-10-12Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs90.8%8-19
2023-10-15San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns31.3%17-19
2023-10-15Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears44.6%19-13
2023-10-15Seattle SeahawksatCincinnati Bengals64.5%13-17
2023-10-15New York GiantsatBuffalo Bills84.4%9-14
2023-10-15Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers54.8%20-6
2023-10-15Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams68.1%9-26
2023-10-15Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars69.1%20-37
2023-10-15Washington CommandersatAtlanta Falcons62.8%24-16
2023-10-15Carolina PanthersatMiami Dolphins78.2%21-42
2023-10-15Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Jets28.9%14-20
2023-10-15New England PatriotsatLas Vegas Raiders62.5%17-21
2023-10-15Tennessee TitansvsBaltimore Ravens61.6%16-24
2023-10-15New Orleans SaintsatHouston Texans44.8%13-20
2023-10-16Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Chargers49.3%20-17
2023-10-19Jacksonville JaguarsatNew Orleans Saints54.5%31-24
2023-10-22Las Vegas RaidersatChicago Bears44.8%12-30
2023-10-22Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots28.6%25-29
2023-10-22Green Bay PackersatDenver Broncos41.4%17-19
2023-10-22Cleveland BrownsatIndianapolis Colts46.0%39-38
2023-10-22Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers69.6%16-13
2023-10-22Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks76.0%10-20
2023-10-22Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefs82.2%17-31
2023-10-22Washington CommandersatNew York Giants52.4%7-14
2023-10-22Miami DolphinsatPhiladelphia Eagles69.7%17-31
2023-10-22Detroit LionsatBaltimore Ravens56.1%6-38
2023-10-22Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Rams55.3%24-17
2023-10-23San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings32.8%17-22
2023-10-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatBuffalo Bills76.3%18-24
2023-10-29Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Chargers72.1%13-30
2023-10-29Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncosshock17.5%9-24
2023-10-29Cleveland BrownsatSeattle Seahawks60.7%20-24
2023-10-29Baltimore RavensatArizona Cardinals29.2%31-24
2023-10-29New Orleans SaintsatIndianapolis Colts50.9%38-27
2023-10-29Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Commanders28.7%38-31
2023-10-29Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboys75.8%20-43
2023-10-29New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins72.4%17-31
2023-10-29Atlanta FalconsatTennessee Titans61.1%23-28
2023-10-29New York JetsatNew York Giants51.4%13-10
2023-10-29Jacksonville JaguarsatPittsburgh Steelers57.2%20-10
2023-10-29Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers52.6%24-10
2023-10-29Houston TexansatCarolina Panthers49.4%13-15
2023-10-29Cincinnati BengalsatSan Francisco 49ers69.5%31-17
2023-10-30Las Vegas RaidersatDetroit Lions75.4%14-26
2023-11-02Tennessee TitansatPittsburgh Steelers65.7%16-20
2023-11-05Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints74.7%17-24
2023-11-05Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals59.3%18-24
2023-11-05Arizona CardinalsatCleveland Browns77.0%0-27
2023-11-05Tampa Bay BuccaneersatHouston Texans54.4%37-39
2023-11-05Miami DolphinsvsKansas City Chiefs64.5%14-21
2023-11-05Indianapolis ColtsatCarolina Panthers58.5%27-13
2023-11-05Washington CommandersatNew England Patriots60.3%20-17
2023-11-05Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles66.0%23-28
2023-11-05Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons41.2%31-28
2023-11-05New York GiantsatLas Vegas Raiders60.8%6-30
2023-11-05Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers58.6%3-20
2023-11-05Seattle SeahawksatBaltimore Ravens67.5%3-37
2023-11-06Los Angeles ChargersatNew York Jets56.6%27-6
2023-11-09Carolina PanthersatChicago Bears61.3%13-16
2023-11-12San Francisco 49ersatJacksonville Jaguars54.0%34-3
2023-11-12Houston TexansatCincinnati Bengalsshock81.7%30-27
2023-11-12Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens72.6%33-31
2023-11-12Tennessee TitansatTampa Bay Buccaneers59.7%6-20
2023-11-12Atlanta FalconsatArizona Cardinals50.5%23-25
2023-11-12Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Chargers55.6%41-38
2023-11-12New England PatriotsvsIndianapolis Colts52.3%6-10
2023-11-12Washington CommandersatSeattle Seahawks70.7%26-29
2023-11-12New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys83.8%17-49
2023-11-12New York JetsatLas Vegas Raiders57.5%12-16
2023-11-12Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers66.4%19-23
2023-11-12New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings66.1%19-27
2023-11-13Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills80.2%24-22
2023-11-16Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens59.1%20-34
2023-11-19Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions82.7%26-31
2023-11-19New York JetsatBuffalo Bills77.2%6-32
2023-11-19Minnesota VikingsatDenver Broncos41.1%20-21
2023-11-19Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns60.4%10-13
2023-11-19Arizona CardinalsatHouston Texans72.8%16-21
2023-11-19Los Angeles ChargersatGreen Bay Packers49.5%20-23
2023-11-19New York GiantsatWashington Commanders66.8%31-19
2023-11-19Dallas CowboysatCarolina Panthers23.7%33-10
2023-11-19Las Vegas RaidersatMiami Dolphins70.5%13-20
2023-11-19Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars73.5%14-34
2023-11-19Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams44.6%16-17
2023-11-19Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers80.4%14-27
2023-11-20Philadelphia EaglesatKansas City Chiefs59.0%21-17
2023-11-23San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks38.8%31-13
2023-11-23Washington CommandersatDallas Cowboys84.8%10-45
2023-11-23Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions74.1%29-22
2023-11-24Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets41.3%34-13
2023-11-26Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals68.3%16-10
2023-11-26Buffalo BillsatPhiladelphia Eagles71.3%34-37
2023-11-26Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos45.6%12-29
2023-11-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatIndianapolis Colts55.1%20-27
2023-11-26Los Angeles RamsatArizona Cardinals47.5%37-14
2023-11-26Baltimore RavensatLos Angeles Chargers42.3%20-10
2023-11-26Kansas City ChiefsatLas Vegas Raiders30.2%31-17
2023-11-26New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons45.8%15-24
2023-11-26New England PatriotsatNew York Giants61.2%7-10
2023-11-26Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans47.5%24-21
2023-11-26Carolina PanthersatTennessee Titans70.7%10-17
2023-11-27Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikingsshock81.7%12-10
2023-11-30Seattle SeahawksatDallas Cowboys75.8%35-41
2023-12-03San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles60.9%42-19
2023-12-03Denver BroncosatHouston Texans55.9%17-22
2023-12-03Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Rams51.5%19-36
2023-12-03Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers75.7%18-21
2023-12-03Arizona CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelersshock84.3%24-10
2023-12-03Los Angeles ChargersatNew England Patriots43.3%6-0
2023-12-03Kansas City ChiefsatGreen Bay Packers36.4%19-27
2023-12-03Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans55.2%31-28
2023-12-03Miami DolphinsatWashington Commanders32.0%45-15
2023-12-03Atlanta FalconsatNew York Jets55.6%13-8
2023-12-03Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints47.0%33-28
2023-12-04Cincinnati BengalsatJacksonville Jaguars60.7%34-31
2023-12-07New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers75.7%21-18
2023-12-10Detroit LionsatChicago Bears34.0%13-28
2023-12-10Indianapolis ColtsatCincinnati Bengals72.9%14-34
2023-12-10Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs65.5%20-17
2023-12-10Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargers64.3%24-7
2023-12-10Jacksonville JaguarsatCleveland Browns50.2%27-31
2023-12-10Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons58.0%29-25
2023-12-10Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys56.7%13-33
2023-12-10Houston TexansatNew York Jets45.1%6-30
2023-12-10Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints76.8%6-28
2023-12-10Minnesota VikingsatLas Vegas Raiders42.2%3-0
2023-12-10Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Ravens78.4%31-37
2023-12-10Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers85.1%16-28
2023-12-11Tennessee TitansatMiami Dolphins80.8%28-27
2023-12-11Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants42.3%22-24
2023-12-14Los Angeles ChargersatLas Vegas Raiders51.4%21-63
2023-12-16Minnesota VikingsatCincinnati Bengals64.2%24-27
2023-12-16Denver BroncosatDetroit Lions62.4%17-42
2023-12-16Pittsburgh SteelersatIndianapolis Colts56.9%13-30
2023-12-17San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals15.4%45-29
2023-12-17Chicago BearsatCleveland Browns69.3%17-20
2023-12-17Dallas CowboysatBuffalo Bills51.2%10-31
2023-12-17Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers65.6%34-20
2023-12-17Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots27.7%27-17
2023-12-17Washington CommandersatLos Angeles Rams74.9%20-28
2023-12-17New York JetsatMiami Dolphins79.3%0-30
2023-12-17Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers40.8%7-9
2023-12-17New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints64.3%6-24
2023-12-17Baltimore RavensatJacksonville Jaguars42.0%23-7
2023-12-17Houston TexansatTennessee Titans56.7%19-16
2023-12-18Philadelphia EaglesatSeattle Seahawks38.0%17-20
2023-12-21New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams60.4%22-30
2023-12-23Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers37.4%11-34
2023-12-23Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Chargers30.6%24-22
2023-12-24Arizona CardinalsatChicago Bears66.7%16-27
2023-12-24New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos73.5%26-23
2023-12-24Cleveland BrownsatHouston Texans51.3%36-22
2023-12-24Jacksonville JaguarsatTampa Bay Buccaneers58.8%12-30
2023-12-24Indianapolis ColtsatAtlanta Falcons49.7%10-29
2023-12-24Washington CommandersatNew York Jets66.4%28-30
2023-12-24Dallas CowboysatMiami Dolphins53.5%20-22
2023-12-24Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings57.9%30-24
2023-12-24Green Bay PackersatCarolina Panthers34.8%33-30
2023-12-24Seattle SeahawksatTennessee Titans46.0%20-17
2023-12-25Las Vegas RaidersatKansas City Chiefs80.4%20-14
2023-12-25New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles82.8%25-33
2023-12-25Baltimore RavensatSan Francisco 49ers67.3%33-19
2023-12-28New York JetsatCleveland Brownsstarters rested75.8%20-37
2023-12-30Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys65.6%19-20
2023-12-31San Francisco 49ersatWashington Commanders15.3%27-10
2023-12-31Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears58.5%17-37
2023-12-31Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs63.9%17-25
2023-12-31New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills86.0%21-27
2023-12-31Los Angeles ChargersatDenver Broncosstarters rested64.3%9-16
2023-12-31New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers68.0%23-13
2023-12-31Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eaglesshock87.4%35-31
2023-12-31Las Vegas RaidersatIndianapolis Colts54.2%20-23
2023-12-31Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Ravens73.7%19-56
2023-12-31Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants43.7%26-25
2023-12-31Carolina PanthersatJacksonville Jaguarsstarters rested81.3%0-26
2023-12-31Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikingsstarters rested63.5%33-10
2023-12-31Pittsburgh SteelersatSeattle Seahawks62.5%30-23
2023-12-31Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans64.0%3-26
2024-01-06Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts60.7%23-19
2024-01-06Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravensstarters rested83.8%17-10
2024-01-07Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers68.8%9-17
2024-01-07Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengalsstarters rested58.0%14-31
2024-01-07Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins50.3%21-14
2024-01-07Denver BroncosatLas Vegas Raiders58.5%14-27
2024-01-07Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers30.2%9-0
2024-01-07Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals44.5%21-20
2024-01-07Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Chargersstarters rested31.7%13-12
2024-01-07Dallas CowboysatWashington Commanders20.8%38-10
2024-01-07Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants32.3%10-27
2024-01-07Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints70.3%17-48
2024-01-07Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans41.0%20-28
2024-01-07New York JetsatNew England Patriotsstarters rested58.6%17-3
2024-01-07Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions71.3%20-30
2024-01-07Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ersstarters rested81.7%21-20
2024-01-13Cleveland BrownsatHouston Texans50.9%14-45
2024-01-13Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs65.6%7-26
2024-01-14Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys71.7%48-32
2024-01-14Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions67.0%23-24
2024-01-15Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills73.9%17-31
2024-01-15Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers54.4%9-32
2024-01-20Houston TexansatBaltimore Ravens81.4%10-34
2024-01-20Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers72.9%21-24
2024-01-21Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills66.1%27-24
2024-01-21Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions66.0%23-31
2024-01-28Kansas City ChiefsatBaltimore Ravens66.6%17-10
2024-01-28Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers72.0%31-34
2024-02-11San Francisco 49ersvsKansas City Chiefs45.8%22-25

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