The expectation ledger
The 2023 season, against expectation
Every game of 2023scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
285
Model Brier
0.2331
Market Brier
0.2172
Longest odds beaten
12.6%
Arizona Cardinals
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2023.
Show all 32 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2023 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-07 | Detroit LionsatKansas City Chiefs | 79.0% | 21-20 |
| 2023-09-10 | San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers | 46.7% | 30-7 |
| 2023-09-10 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 39.1% | 38-20 |
| 2023-09-10 | Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns | 38.2% | 3-24 |
| 2023-09-10 | Las Vegas RaidersatDenver Broncos | 50.7% | 17-16 |
| 2023-09-10 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings | 63.9% | 20-17 |
| 2023-09-10 | Arizona CardinalsatWashington Commanders | 68.3% | 16-20 |
| 2023-09-10 | Miami DolphinsatLos Angeles Chargers | 61.4% | 36-34 |
| 2023-09-10 | Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts | 45.4% | 31-21 |
| 2023-09-10 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants | 44.2% | 40-0 |
| 2023-09-10 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew England Patriots | 46.5% | 25-20 |
| 2023-09-10 | Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons | 56.8% | 10-24 |
| 2023-09-10 | Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks | 66.2% | 30-13 |
| 2023-09-10 | Houston TexansatBaltimore Ravens | 77.3% | 9-25 |
| 2023-09-10 | Tennessee TitansatNew Orleans Saints | 65.2% | 15-16 |
| 2023-09-11 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 31.8% | 16-22 |
| 2023-09-14 | Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 73.8% | 28-34 |
| 2023-09-17 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 36.1% | 30-23 |
| 2023-09-17 | Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 77.0% | 17-27 |
| 2023-09-17 | Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals | 68.7% | 27-24 |
| 2023-09-17 | Las Vegas RaidersatBuffalo Bills | 74.0% | 10-38 |
| 2023-09-17 | Washington CommandersatDenver Broncos | 46.3% | 35-33 |
| 2023-09-17 | New York GiantsatArizona Cardinals | 54.2% | 31-28 |
| 2023-09-17 | Los Angeles ChargersatTennessee Titans | 53.7% | 24-27 |
| 2023-09-17 | Kansas City ChiefsatJacksonville Jaguars | 41.3% | 17-9 |
| 2023-09-17 | Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans | 55.1% | 31-20 |
| 2023-09-17 | New York JetsatDallas Cowboys | 78.4% | 10-30 |
| 2023-09-17 | Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots | 56.9% | 24-17 |
| 2023-09-17 | Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons | 50.5% | 24-25 |
| 2023-09-17 | Seattle SeahawksatDetroit Lions | 67.1% | 37-31 |
| 2023-09-18 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 54.9% | 22-26 |
| 2023-09-18 | New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers | 51.3% | 20-17 |
| 2023-09-21 | New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers | 82.5% | 12-30 |
| 2023-09-24 | Chicago BearsatKansas City Chiefs | 90.6% | 10-41 |
| 2023-09-24 | Buffalo BillsatWashington Commanders | 44.1% | 37-3 |
| 2023-09-24 | Denver BroncosatMiami Dolphins | 75.9% | 20-70 |
| 2023-09-24 | Tennessee TitansatCleveland Browns | 66.3% | 3-27 |
| 2023-09-24 | Dallas CowboysatArizona Cardinals | 27.6% | 16-28 |
| 2023-09-24 | Los Angeles ChargersatMinnesota Vikings | 60.2% | 28-24 |
| 2023-09-24 | Indianapolis ColtsatBaltimore Ravens | 75.9% | 22-19 |
| 2023-09-24 | Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions | 59.3% | 6-20 |
| 2023-09-24 | Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars | 80.3% | 37-17 |
| 2023-09-24 | New England PatriotsatNew York Jets | 56.2% | 15-10 |
| 2023-09-24 | New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers | 60.9% | 17-18 |
| 2023-09-24 | Carolina PanthersatSeattle Seahawks | 65.5% | 27-37 |
| 2023-09-24 | Pittsburgh SteelersatLas Vegas Raiders | 51.7% | 23-18 |
| 2023-09-25 | Los Angeles RamsatCincinnati Bengals | 73.4% | 16-19 |
| 2023-09-25 | Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 43.4% | 25-11 |
| 2023-09-28 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 63.5% | 34-20 |
| 2023-10-01 | Denver BroncosatChicago Bears | 53.8% | 31-28 |
| 2023-10-01 | Cincinnati BengalsatTennessee Titans | 39.0% | 3-27 |
| 2023-10-01 | Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills | 71.6% | 20-48 |
| 2023-10-01 | Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns | 60.9% | 28-3 |
| 2023-10-01 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints | 63.4% | 26-9 |
| 2023-10-01 | Las Vegas RaidersatLos Angeles Chargers | 66.7% | 17-24 |
| 2023-10-01 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets | 25.0% | 23-20 |
| 2023-10-01 | Los Angeles RamsatIndianapolis Colts | 55.9% | 29-23 |
| 2023-10-01 | Washington CommandersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 79.3% | 31-34 |
| 2023-10-01 | New England PatriotsatDallas Cowboys | 72.1% | 3-38 |
| 2023-10-01 | Atlanta FalconsvsJacksonville Jaguars | 48.7% | 7-23 |
| 2023-10-01 | Minnesota VikingsatCarolina Panthers | 52.8% | 21-13 |
| 2023-10-01 | Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Texans | 38.2% | 6-30 |
| 2023-10-01 | Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers | 85.3% | 16-35 |
| 2023-10-02 | Seattle SeahawksatNew York Giants | 52.2% | 24-3 |
| 2023-10-05 | Chicago BearsatWashington Commanders | 77.1% | 40-20 |
| 2023-10-08 | Cincinnati BengalsatArizona Cardinals | 41.7% | 34-20 |
| 2023-10-08 | Buffalo BillsvsJacksonville Jaguars | 26.7% | 20-25 |
| 2023-10-08 | New York JetsatDenver Broncos | 56.0% | 31-21 |
| 2023-10-08 | Kansas City ChiefsatMinnesota Vikings | 32.3% | 27-20 |
| 2023-10-08 | Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts | 49.4% | 16-23 |
| 2023-10-08 | New York GiantsatMiami Dolphins | 73.5% | 16-31 |
| 2023-10-08 | Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Rams | 36.3% | 23-14 |
| 2023-10-08 | Houston TexansatAtlanta Falcons | 60.4% | 19-21 |
| 2023-10-08 | Carolina PanthersatDetroit Lions | 77.1% | 24-42 |
| 2023-10-08 | New Orleans SaintsatNew England Patriots | 57.6% | 34-0 |
| 2023-10-08 | Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers | 48.5% | 10-17 |
| 2023-10-08 | Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers | 69.3% | 10-42 |
| 2023-10-09 | Green Bay PackersatLas Vegas Raiders | 49.0% | 13-17 |
| 2023-10-12 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 90.8% | 8-19 |
| 2023-10-15 | San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns | 31.3% | 17-19 |
| 2023-10-15 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 44.6% | 19-13 |
| 2023-10-15 | Seattle SeahawksatCincinnati Bengals | 64.5% | 13-17 |
| 2023-10-15 | New York GiantsatBuffalo Bills | 84.4% | 9-14 |
| 2023-10-15 | Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 54.8% | 20-6 |
| 2023-10-15 | Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams | 68.1% | 9-26 |
| 2023-10-15 | Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars | 69.1% | 20-37 |
| 2023-10-15 | Washington CommandersatAtlanta Falcons | 62.8% | 24-16 |
| 2023-10-15 | Carolina PanthersatMiami Dolphins | 78.2% | 21-42 |
| 2023-10-15 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Jets | 28.9% | 14-20 |
| 2023-10-15 | New England PatriotsatLas Vegas Raiders | 62.5% | 17-21 |
| 2023-10-15 | Tennessee TitansvsBaltimore Ravens | 61.6% | 16-24 |
| 2023-10-15 | New Orleans SaintsatHouston Texans | 44.8% | 13-20 |
| 2023-10-16 | Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Chargers | 49.3% | 20-17 |
| 2023-10-19 | Jacksonville JaguarsatNew Orleans Saints | 54.5% | 31-24 |
| 2023-10-22 | Las Vegas RaidersatChicago Bears | 44.8% | 12-30 |
| 2023-10-22 | Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots | 28.6% | 25-29 |
| 2023-10-22 | Green Bay PackersatDenver Broncos | 41.4% | 17-19 |
| 2023-10-22 | Cleveland BrownsatIndianapolis Colts | 46.0% | 39-38 |
| 2023-10-22 | Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 69.6% | 16-13 |
| 2023-10-22 | Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks | 76.0% | 10-20 |
| 2023-10-22 | Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 82.2% | 17-31 |
| 2023-10-22 | Washington CommandersatNew York Giants | 52.4% | 7-14 |
| 2023-10-22 | Miami DolphinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 69.7% | 17-31 |
| 2023-10-22 | Detroit LionsatBaltimore Ravens | 56.1% | 6-38 |
| 2023-10-22 | Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Rams | 55.3% | 24-17 |
| 2023-10-23 | San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings | 32.8% | 17-22 |
| 2023-10-26 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatBuffalo Bills | 76.3% | 18-24 |
| 2023-10-29 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Chargers | 72.1% | 13-30 |
| 2023-10-29 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncosshock | 17.5% | 9-24 |
| 2023-10-29 | Cleveland BrownsatSeattle Seahawks | 60.7% | 20-24 |
| 2023-10-29 | Baltimore RavensatArizona Cardinals | 29.2% | 31-24 |
| 2023-10-29 | New Orleans SaintsatIndianapolis Colts | 50.9% | 38-27 |
| 2023-10-29 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Commanders | 28.7% | 38-31 |
| 2023-10-29 | Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboys | 75.8% | 20-43 |
| 2023-10-29 | New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 72.4% | 17-31 |
| 2023-10-29 | Atlanta FalconsatTennessee Titans | 61.1% | 23-28 |
| 2023-10-29 | New York JetsatNew York Giants | 51.4% | 13-10 |
| 2023-10-29 | Jacksonville JaguarsatPittsburgh Steelers | 57.2% | 20-10 |
| 2023-10-29 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers | 52.6% | 24-10 |
| 2023-10-29 | Houston TexansatCarolina Panthers | 49.4% | 13-15 |
| 2023-10-29 | Cincinnati BengalsatSan Francisco 49ers | 69.5% | 31-17 |
| 2023-10-30 | Las Vegas RaidersatDetroit Lions | 75.4% | 14-26 |
| 2023-11-02 | Tennessee TitansatPittsburgh Steelers | 65.7% | 16-20 |
| 2023-11-05 | Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints | 74.7% | 17-24 |
| 2023-11-05 | Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals | 59.3% | 18-24 |
| 2023-11-05 | Arizona CardinalsatCleveland Browns | 77.0% | 0-27 |
| 2023-11-05 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatHouston Texans | 54.4% | 37-39 |
| 2023-11-05 | Miami DolphinsvsKansas City Chiefs | 64.5% | 14-21 |
| 2023-11-05 | Indianapolis ColtsatCarolina Panthers | 58.5% | 27-13 |
| 2023-11-05 | Washington CommandersatNew England Patriots | 60.3% | 20-17 |
| 2023-11-05 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 66.0% | 23-28 |
| 2023-11-05 | Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons | 41.2% | 31-28 |
| 2023-11-05 | New York GiantsatLas Vegas Raiders | 60.8% | 6-30 |
| 2023-11-05 | Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers | 58.6% | 3-20 |
| 2023-11-05 | Seattle SeahawksatBaltimore Ravens | 67.5% | 3-37 |
| 2023-11-06 | Los Angeles ChargersatNew York Jets | 56.6% | 27-6 |
| 2023-11-09 | Carolina PanthersatChicago Bears | 61.3% | 13-16 |
| 2023-11-12 | San Francisco 49ersatJacksonville Jaguars | 54.0% | 34-3 |
| 2023-11-12 | Houston TexansatCincinnati Bengalsshock | 81.7% | 30-27 |
| 2023-11-12 | Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens | 72.6% | 33-31 |
| 2023-11-12 | Tennessee TitansatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 59.7% | 6-20 |
| 2023-11-12 | Atlanta FalconsatArizona Cardinals | 50.5% | 23-25 |
| 2023-11-12 | Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Chargers | 55.6% | 41-38 |
| 2023-11-12 | New England PatriotsvsIndianapolis Colts | 52.3% | 6-10 |
| 2023-11-12 | Washington CommandersatSeattle Seahawks | 70.7% | 26-29 |
| 2023-11-12 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 83.8% | 17-49 |
| 2023-11-12 | New York JetsatLas Vegas Raiders | 57.5% | 12-16 |
| 2023-11-12 | Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers | 66.4% | 19-23 |
| 2023-11-12 | New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings | 66.1% | 19-27 |
| 2023-11-13 | Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills | 80.2% | 24-22 |
| 2023-11-16 | Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens | 59.1% | 20-34 |
| 2023-11-19 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 82.7% | 26-31 |
| 2023-11-19 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 77.2% | 6-32 |
| 2023-11-19 | Minnesota VikingsatDenver Broncos | 41.1% | 20-21 |
| 2023-11-19 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 60.4% | 10-13 |
| 2023-11-19 | Arizona CardinalsatHouston Texans | 72.8% | 16-21 |
| 2023-11-19 | Los Angeles ChargersatGreen Bay Packers | 49.5% | 20-23 |
| 2023-11-19 | New York GiantsatWashington Commanders | 66.8% | 31-19 |
| 2023-11-19 | Dallas CowboysatCarolina Panthers | 23.7% | 33-10 |
| 2023-11-19 | Las Vegas RaidersatMiami Dolphins | 70.5% | 13-20 |
| 2023-11-19 | Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars | 73.5% | 14-34 |
| 2023-11-19 | Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams | 44.6% | 16-17 |
| 2023-11-19 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers | 80.4% | 14-27 |
| 2023-11-20 | Philadelphia EaglesatKansas City Chiefs | 59.0% | 21-17 |
| 2023-11-23 | San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks | 38.8% | 31-13 |
| 2023-11-23 | Washington CommandersatDallas Cowboys | 84.8% | 10-45 |
| 2023-11-23 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 74.1% | 29-22 |
| 2023-11-24 | Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets | 41.3% | 34-13 |
| 2023-11-26 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals | 68.3% | 16-10 |
| 2023-11-26 | Buffalo BillsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 71.3% | 34-37 |
| 2023-11-26 | Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos | 45.6% | 12-29 |
| 2023-11-26 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatIndianapolis Colts | 55.1% | 20-27 |
| 2023-11-26 | Los Angeles RamsatArizona Cardinals | 47.5% | 37-14 |
| 2023-11-26 | Baltimore RavensatLos Angeles Chargers | 42.3% | 20-10 |
| 2023-11-26 | Kansas City ChiefsatLas Vegas Raiders | 30.2% | 31-17 |
| 2023-11-26 | New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons | 45.8% | 15-24 |
| 2023-11-26 | New England PatriotsatNew York Giants | 61.2% | 7-10 |
| 2023-11-26 | Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans | 47.5% | 24-21 |
| 2023-11-26 | Carolina PanthersatTennessee Titans | 70.7% | 10-17 |
| 2023-11-27 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikingsshock | 81.7% | 12-10 |
| 2023-11-30 | Seattle SeahawksatDallas Cowboys | 75.8% | 35-41 |
| 2023-12-03 | San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 60.9% | 42-19 |
| 2023-12-03 | Denver BroncosatHouston Texans | 55.9% | 17-22 |
| 2023-12-03 | Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Rams | 51.5% | 19-36 |
| 2023-12-03 | Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 75.7% | 18-21 |
| 2023-12-03 | Arizona CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelersshock | 84.3% | 24-10 |
| 2023-12-03 | Los Angeles ChargersatNew England Patriots | 43.3% | 6-0 |
| 2023-12-03 | Kansas City ChiefsatGreen Bay Packers | 36.4% | 19-27 |
| 2023-12-03 | Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans | 55.2% | 31-28 |
| 2023-12-03 | Miami DolphinsatWashington Commanders | 32.0% | 45-15 |
| 2023-12-03 | Atlanta FalconsatNew York Jets | 55.6% | 13-8 |
| 2023-12-03 | Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints | 47.0% | 33-28 |
| 2023-12-04 | Cincinnati BengalsatJacksonville Jaguars | 60.7% | 34-31 |
| 2023-12-07 | New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers | 75.7% | 21-18 |
| 2023-12-10 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 34.0% | 13-28 |
| 2023-12-10 | Indianapolis ColtsatCincinnati Bengals | 72.9% | 14-34 |
| 2023-12-10 | Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs | 65.5% | 20-17 |
| 2023-12-10 | Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargers | 64.3% | 24-7 |
| 2023-12-10 | Jacksonville JaguarsatCleveland Browns | 50.2% | 27-31 |
| 2023-12-10 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons | 58.0% | 29-25 |
| 2023-12-10 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 56.7% | 13-33 |
| 2023-12-10 | Houston TexansatNew York Jets | 45.1% | 6-30 |
| 2023-12-10 | Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints | 76.8% | 6-28 |
| 2023-12-10 | Minnesota VikingsatLas Vegas Raiders | 42.2% | 3-0 |
| 2023-12-10 | Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Ravens | 78.4% | 31-37 |
| 2023-12-10 | Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers | 85.1% | 16-28 |
| 2023-12-11 | Tennessee TitansatMiami Dolphins | 80.8% | 28-27 |
| 2023-12-11 | Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants | 42.3% | 22-24 |
| 2023-12-14 | Los Angeles ChargersatLas Vegas Raiders | 51.4% | 21-63 |
| 2023-12-16 | Minnesota VikingsatCincinnati Bengals | 64.2% | 24-27 |
| 2023-12-16 | Denver BroncosatDetroit Lions | 62.4% | 17-42 |
| 2023-12-16 | Pittsburgh SteelersatIndianapolis Colts | 56.9% | 13-30 |
| 2023-12-17 | San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals | 15.4% | 45-29 |
| 2023-12-17 | Chicago BearsatCleveland Browns | 69.3% | 17-20 |
| 2023-12-17 | Dallas CowboysatBuffalo Bills | 51.2% | 10-31 |
| 2023-12-17 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers | 65.6% | 34-20 |
| 2023-12-17 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots | 27.7% | 27-17 |
| 2023-12-17 | Washington CommandersatLos Angeles Rams | 74.9% | 20-28 |
| 2023-12-17 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 79.3% | 0-30 |
| 2023-12-17 | Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers | 40.8% | 7-9 |
| 2023-12-17 | New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints | 64.3% | 6-24 |
| 2023-12-17 | Baltimore RavensatJacksonville Jaguars | 42.0% | 23-7 |
| 2023-12-17 | Houston TexansatTennessee Titans | 56.7% | 19-16 |
| 2023-12-18 | Philadelphia EaglesatSeattle Seahawks | 38.0% | 17-20 |
| 2023-12-21 | New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams | 60.4% | 22-30 |
| 2023-12-23 | Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 37.4% | 11-34 |
| 2023-12-23 | Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Chargers | 30.6% | 24-22 |
| 2023-12-24 | Arizona CardinalsatChicago Bears | 66.7% | 16-27 |
| 2023-12-24 | New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos | 73.5% | 26-23 |
| 2023-12-24 | Cleveland BrownsatHouston Texans | 51.3% | 36-22 |
| 2023-12-24 | Jacksonville JaguarsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 58.8% | 12-30 |
| 2023-12-24 | Indianapolis ColtsatAtlanta Falcons | 49.7% | 10-29 |
| 2023-12-24 | Washington CommandersatNew York Jets | 66.4% | 28-30 |
| 2023-12-24 | Dallas CowboysatMiami Dolphins | 53.5% | 20-22 |
| 2023-12-24 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 57.9% | 30-24 |
| 2023-12-24 | Green Bay PackersatCarolina Panthers | 34.8% | 33-30 |
| 2023-12-24 | Seattle SeahawksatTennessee Titans | 46.0% | 20-17 |
| 2023-12-25 | Las Vegas RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 80.4% | 20-14 |
| 2023-12-25 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 82.8% | 25-33 |
| 2023-12-25 | Baltimore RavensatSan Francisco 49ers | 67.3% | 33-19 |
| 2023-12-28 | New York JetsatCleveland Brownsstarters rested | 75.8% | 20-37 |
| 2023-12-30 | Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys | 65.6% | 19-20 |
| 2023-12-31 | San Francisco 49ersatWashington Commanders | 15.3% | 27-10 |
| 2023-12-31 | Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears | 58.5% | 17-37 |
| 2023-12-31 | Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs | 63.9% | 17-25 |
| 2023-12-31 | New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 86.0% | 21-27 |
| 2023-12-31 | Los Angeles ChargersatDenver Broncosstarters rested | 64.3% | 9-16 |
| 2023-12-31 | New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 68.0% | 23-13 |
| 2023-12-31 | Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eaglesshock | 87.4% | 35-31 |
| 2023-12-31 | Las Vegas RaidersatIndianapolis Colts | 54.2% | 20-23 |
| 2023-12-31 | Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Ravens | 73.7% | 19-56 |
| 2023-12-31 | Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants | 43.7% | 26-25 |
| 2023-12-31 | Carolina PanthersatJacksonville Jaguarsstarters rested | 81.3% | 0-26 |
| 2023-12-31 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikingsstarters rested | 63.5% | 33-10 |
| 2023-12-31 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSeattle Seahawks | 62.5% | 30-23 |
| 2023-12-31 | Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans | 64.0% | 3-26 |
| 2024-01-06 | Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts | 60.7% | 23-19 |
| 2024-01-06 | Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravensstarters rested | 83.8% | 17-10 |
| 2024-01-07 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 68.8% | 9-17 |
| 2024-01-07 | Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengalsstarters rested | 58.0% | 14-31 |
| 2024-01-07 | Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins | 50.3% | 21-14 |
| 2024-01-07 | Denver BroncosatLas Vegas Raiders | 58.5% | 14-27 |
| 2024-01-07 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers | 30.2% | 9-0 |
| 2024-01-07 | Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals | 44.5% | 21-20 |
| 2024-01-07 | Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Chargersstarters rested | 31.7% | 13-12 |
| 2024-01-07 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Commanders | 20.8% | 38-10 |
| 2024-01-07 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 32.3% | 10-27 |
| 2024-01-07 | Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints | 70.3% | 17-48 |
| 2024-01-07 | Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans | 41.0% | 20-28 |
| 2024-01-07 | New York JetsatNew England Patriotsstarters rested | 58.6% | 17-3 |
| 2024-01-07 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 71.3% | 20-30 |
| 2024-01-07 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ersstarters rested | 81.7% | 21-20 |
| 2024-01-13 | Cleveland BrownsatHouston Texans | 50.9% | 14-45 |
| 2024-01-13 | Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs | 65.6% | 7-26 |
| 2024-01-14 | Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys | 71.7% | 48-32 |
| 2024-01-14 | Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions | 67.0% | 23-24 |
| 2024-01-15 | Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills | 73.9% | 17-31 |
| 2024-01-15 | Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 54.4% | 9-32 |
| 2024-01-20 | Houston TexansatBaltimore Ravens | 81.4% | 10-34 |
| 2024-01-20 | Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers | 72.9% | 21-24 |
| 2024-01-21 | Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills | 66.1% | 27-24 |
| 2024-01-21 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions | 66.0% | 23-31 |
| 2024-01-28 | Kansas City ChiefsatBaltimore Ravens | 66.6% | 17-10 |
| 2024-01-28 | Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers | 72.0% | 31-34 |
| 2024-02-11 | San Francisco 49ersvsKansas City Chiefs | 45.8% | 22-25 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.