The expectation ledger

The 2025 season, against expectation

Every game of 2025scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
285
Model Brier
0.2243
Market Brier
0.2081
Longest odds beaten
13.8%
New England Patriots

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2025.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2025 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2025-09-04Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles82.7%20-24
2025-09-05Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Chargers35.9%21-27
2025-09-07San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks65.8%17-13
2025-09-07Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns38.1%17-16
2025-09-07Baltimore RavensatBuffalo Bills58.7%40-41
2025-09-07Tennessee TitansatDenver Broncos80.3%12-20
2025-09-07Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons45.2%23-20
2025-09-07Arizona CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints53.0%20-13
2025-09-07Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts52.7%8-33
2025-09-07New York GiantsatWashington Commanders80.4%6-21
2025-09-07Carolina PanthersatJacksonville Jaguars63.2%10-26
2025-09-07Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets48.9%34-32
2025-09-07Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers51.4%13-27
2025-09-07Las Vegas RaidersatNew England Patriots58.5%20-13
2025-09-07Houston TexansatLos Angeles Rams62.2%9-14
2025-09-08Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears39.7%27-24
2025-09-11Washington CommandersatGreen Bay Packers62.9%18-27
2025-09-14San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints44.3%26-21
2025-09-14Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions81.1%21-52
2025-09-14Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals73.9%27-31
2025-09-14Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets31.5%30-10
2025-09-14Denver BroncosatIndianapolis Colts48.2%28-29
2025-09-14Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens85.4%17-41
2025-09-14Carolina PanthersatArizona Cardinals74.3%22-27
2025-09-14Philadelphia EaglesatKansas City Chiefs47.9%20-17
2025-09-14New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys71.3%37-40
2025-09-14New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins70.8%33-27
2025-09-14Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings76.9%22-6
2025-09-14Los Angeles RamsatTennessee Titans31.7%33-19
2025-09-14Seattle SeahawksatPittsburgh Steelers63.1%31-17
2025-09-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatHouston Texans54.4%20-19
2025-09-15Los Angeles ChargersatLas Vegas Raiders42.2%20-9
2025-09-18Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills83.8%21-31
2025-09-21Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears49.1%14-31
2025-09-21Cincinnati BengalsatMinnesota Vikings54.4%10-48
2025-09-21Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargers62.1%20-23
2025-09-21Green Bay PackersatCleveland Browns27.6%10-13
2025-09-21New York JetsatTampa Bay Buccaneers76.1%27-29
2025-09-21Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Giants28.6%22-9
2025-09-21Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans39.3%41-20
2025-09-21Las Vegas RaidersatWashington Commanders76.7%24-41
2025-09-21Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles73.8%26-33
2025-09-21Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers42.4%0-30
2025-09-21Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars47.6%10-17
2025-09-21Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots46.4%21-14
2025-09-21New Orleans SaintsatSeattle Seahawks78.5%13-44
2025-09-21Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers62.4%15-16
2025-09-22Detroit LionsatBaltimore Ravens63.1%38-30
2025-09-25Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals49.9%23-20
2025-09-28Chicago BearsatLas Vegas Raiders55.0%25-24
2025-09-28New Orleans SaintsatBuffalo Bills88.9%19-31
2025-09-28Cleveland BrownsatDetroit Lions85.1%10-34
2025-09-28Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers39.2%31-25
2025-09-28Los Angeles ChargersatNew York Giants27.6%18-21
2025-09-28Baltimore RavensatKansas City Chiefs57.9%20-37
2025-09-28Indianapolis ColtsatLos Angeles Rams66.9%20-27
2025-09-28Washington CommandersatAtlanta Falcons40.4%27-34
2025-09-28Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys38.0%40-40
2025-09-28Carolina PanthersatNew England Patriots58.0%13-42
2025-09-28Minnesota VikingsatPittsburgh Steelers44.3%21-24
2025-09-28Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans78.6%0-26
2025-09-28Jacksonville JaguarsatSan Francisco 49ers68.9%26-21
2025-09-29Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos61.7%3-28
2025-09-29New York JetsatMiami Dolphins61.1%21-27
2025-10-02San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams70.6%26-23
2025-10-05Detroit LionsatCincinnati Bengals38.1%37-24
2025-10-05New England PatriotsatBuffalo Billsshock86.2%23-20
2025-10-05Denver BroncosatPhiladelphia Eagles77.8%21-17
2025-10-05Minnesota VikingsatCleveland Browns30.3%21-17
2025-10-05Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSeattle Seahawks62.0%38-35
2025-10-05Tennessee TitansatArizona Cardinals78.8%22-21
2025-10-05Washington CommandersatLos Angeles Chargers62.0%27-10
2025-10-05Las Vegas RaidersatIndianapolis Colts72.9%6-40
2025-10-05Dallas CowboysatNew York Jets53.0%37-22
2025-10-05Miami DolphinsatCarolina Panthers48.6%24-27
2025-10-05New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints57.9%14-26
2025-10-05Houston TexansatBaltimore Ravens70.8%44-10
2025-10-06Kansas City ChiefsatJacksonville Jaguars37.9%28-31
2025-10-09Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giantsshock17.0%17-34
2025-10-12San Francisco 49ersatTampa Bay Buccaneers65.9%19-30
2025-10-12Cincinnati BengalsatGreen Bay Packers73.0%18-27
2025-10-12Denver BroncosatNew York Jets21.8%13-11
2025-10-12Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers77.1%9-23
2025-10-12Arizona CardinalsatIndianapolis Colts66.6%27-31
2025-10-12Los Angeles ChargersatMiami Dolphins45.9%29-27
2025-10-12Detroit LionsatKansas City Chiefs50.5%17-30
2025-10-12Dallas CowboysatCarolina Panthers46.1%27-30
2025-10-12Seattle SeahawksatJacksonville Jaguars51.1%20-12
2025-10-12New England PatriotsatNew Orleans Saints50.6%25-19
2025-10-12Tennessee TitansatLas Vegas Raiders66.0%10-20
2025-10-12Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Ravens55.4%17-3
2025-10-13Chicago BearsatWashington Commanders76.6%25-24
2025-10-13Buffalo BillsatAtlanta Falcons33.9%14-24
2025-10-16Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals48.7%31-33
2025-10-19New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears70.5%14-26
2025-10-19New York GiantsatDenver Broncos81.5%32-33
2025-10-19Miami DolphinsatCleveland Browns52.8%6-31
2025-10-19Green Bay PackersatArizona Cardinals38.2%27-23
2025-10-19Indianapolis ColtsatLos Angeles Chargers60.2%38-24
2025-10-19Las Vegas RaidersatKansas City Chiefs85.5%0-31
2025-10-19Washington CommandersatDallas Cowboys44.1%22-44
2025-10-19Philadelphia EaglesatMinnesota Vikings46.9%28-22
2025-10-19Los Angeles RamsatJacksonville Jaguars33.2%35-7
2025-10-19Carolina PanthersatNew York Jets54.9%13-6
2025-10-19New England PatriotsatTennessee Titans37.3%31-13
2025-10-19Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers60.1%10-20
2025-10-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions67.4%9-24
2025-10-20Houston TexansatSeattle Seahawks62.0%19-27
2025-10-23Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Chargers54.9%10-37
2025-10-26San Francisco 49ersatHouston Texans61.8%15-26
2025-10-26Chicago BearsatBaltimore Ravens64.6%16-30
2025-10-26New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals76.1%39-38
2025-10-26Buffalo BillsatCarolina Panthers33.3%40-9
2025-10-26Dallas CowboysatDenver Broncos72.6%24-44
2025-10-26Cleveland BrownsatNew England Patriots69.7%13-32
2025-10-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints29.6%23-3
2025-10-26Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts87.5%14-38
2025-10-26Miami DolphinsatAtlanta Falcons70.4%34-10
2025-10-26New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles86.0%20-38
2025-10-26Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers47.8%35-25
2025-10-27Washington CommandersatKansas City Chiefs73.4%7-28
2025-10-30Baltimore RavensatMiami Dolphins47.4%28-6
2025-11-02San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants44.4%34-24
2025-11-02Chicago BearsatCincinnati Bengals62.5%47-42
2025-11-02Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills55.3%21-28
2025-11-02Denver BroncosatHouston Texans50.6%18-15
2025-11-02Los Angeles ChargersatTennessee Titans25.7%27-20
2025-11-02Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers50.9%20-27
2025-11-02Seattle SeahawksatWashington Commanders48.9%38-14
2025-11-02Atlanta FalconsatNew England Patriots69.2%23-24
2025-11-02Jacksonville JaguarsatLas Vegas Raiders49.6%30-29
2025-11-02Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions78.3%27-24
2025-11-02Carolina PanthersatGreen Bay Packersshock84.9%16-13
2025-11-02New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams87.9%10-34
2025-11-03Arizona CardinalsatDallas Cowboys64.8%27-17
2025-11-06Las Vegas RaidersatDenver Broncos86.4%7-10
2025-11-09New York GiantsatChicago Bears71.4%20-24
2025-11-09Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins26.9%13-30
2025-11-09Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jets54.7%20-27
2025-11-09New England PatriotsatTampa Bay Buccaneers69.2%28-23
2025-11-09Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks77.2%22-44
2025-11-09Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Chargers60.7%10-25
2025-11-09Atlanta FalconsatIndianapolis Colts67.2%25-31
2025-11-09Detroit LionsatWashington Commanders37.8%44-22
2025-11-09Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans70.4%29-36
2025-11-09New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers72.3%17-7
2025-11-09Baltimore RavensatMinnesota Vikings55.7%27-19
2025-11-09Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers45.2%42-26
2025-11-10Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers51.6%10-7
2025-11-13New York JetsatNew England Patriots78.3%14-27
2025-11-16San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals54.2%41-22
2025-11-16Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings62.5%19-17
2025-11-16Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers67.6%12-34
2025-11-16Tampa Bay BuccaneersatBuffalo Bills65.6%32-44
2025-11-16Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos58.4%19-22
2025-11-16Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns30.7%23-16
2025-11-16Los Angeles ChargersatJacksonville Jaguars42.6%6-35
2025-11-16Washington CommandersatMiami Dolphins49.0%13-16
2025-11-16Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles61.6%9-16
2025-11-16Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons62.1%30-27
2025-11-16Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants28.3%27-20
2025-11-16Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams60.8%19-21
2025-11-16Houston TexansatTennessee Titans22.3%16-13
2025-11-17Dallas CowboysatLas Vegas Raiders48.2%33-16
2025-11-20Buffalo BillsatHouston Texans50.6%19-23
2025-11-23Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Bears54.2%28-31
2025-11-23New England PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals42.7%26-20
2025-11-23Cleveland BrownsatLas Vegas Raiders57.2%24-10
2025-11-23Tampa Bay BuccaneersatLos Angeles Rams73.8%7-34
2025-11-23Jacksonville JaguarsatArizona Cardinals51.1%27-24
2025-11-23Indianapolis ColtsatKansas City Chiefs68.4%20-23
2025-11-23Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys29.6%21-24
2025-11-23Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints55.1%24-10
2025-11-23New York GiantsatDetroit Lions88.4%27-34
2025-11-23New York JetsatBaltimore Ravens84.0%10-23
2025-11-23Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers74.1%6-23
2025-11-23Seattle SeahawksatTennessee Titans15.5%30-24
2025-11-24Carolina PanthersatSan Francisco 49ers74.5%9-20
2025-11-27Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravensshock80.8%32-14
2025-11-27Kansas City ChiefsatDallas Cowboys39.4%28-31
2025-11-27Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions63.2%31-24
2025-11-28Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles79.1%24-15
2025-11-30San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns37.9%26-8
2025-11-30Buffalo BillsatPittsburgh Steelers46.7%26-7
2025-11-30Denver BroncosatWashington Commanders31.9%27-26
2025-11-30Arizona CardinalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers73.2%17-20
2025-11-30Las Vegas RaidersatLos Angeles Chargers82.9%14-31
2025-11-30Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts56.0%20-16
2025-11-30New Orleans SaintsatMiami Dolphins76.1%17-21
2025-11-30Atlanta FalconsatNew York Jets49.9%24-27
2025-11-30Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans26.9%25-3
2025-11-30Los Angeles RamsatCarolina Panthers23.2%28-31
2025-11-30Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks78.2%0-26
2025-12-01New York GiantsatNew England Patriots82.8%15-33
2025-12-04Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions72.8%30-44
2025-12-07Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers72.2%21-28
2025-12-07Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills79.1%34-39
2025-12-07Denver BroncosatLas Vegas Raiders16.6%24-17
2025-12-07Tennessee TitansatCleveland Browns74.8%31-29
2025-12-07New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneersshock82.4%24-20
2025-12-07Los Angeles RamsatArizona Cardinals26.8%45-17
2025-12-07Houston TexansatKansas City Chiefs62.9%20-10
2025-12-07Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars56.6%19-36
2025-12-07Washington CommandersatMinnesota Vikings61.5%0-31
2025-12-07Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets44.2%34-10
2025-12-07Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons27.4%37-9
2025-12-07Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens66.5%27-22
2025-12-08Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Chargers45.0%19-22
2025-12-11Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers72.9%29-28
2025-12-14Cleveland BrownsatChicago Bears80.8%3-31
2025-12-14Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals50.8%24-0
2025-12-14Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots49.4%35-31
2025-12-14Green Bay PackersatDenver Broncos59.0%26-34
2025-12-14Arizona CardinalsatHouston Texans84.9%20-40
2025-12-14Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefs65.0%16-13
2025-12-14Indianapolis ColtsatSeattle Seahawks77.7%16-18
2025-12-14Washington CommandersatNew York Giants48.5%29-21
2025-12-14Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys61.3%34-26
2025-12-14Las Vegas RaidersatPhiladelphia Eagles90.0%0-31
2025-12-14New York JetsatJacksonville Jaguars81.8%20-48
2025-12-14Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams63.1%34-41
2025-12-14Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints50.2%17-20
2025-12-14Tennessee TitansatSan Francisco 49ers89.1%24-37
2025-12-15Miami DolphinsatPittsburgh Steelers60.5%15-28
2025-12-18Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks57.5%37-38
2025-12-20Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears46.0%16-22
2025-12-20Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Commanders33.9%29-18
2025-12-21Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins67.2%45-21
2025-12-21Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns19.2%23-20
2025-12-21Jacksonville JaguarsatDenver Broncos74.7%34-20
2025-12-21Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers47.6%20-23
2025-12-21Atlanta FalconsatArizona Cardinals56.2%26-19
2025-12-21Los Angeles ChargersatDallas Cowboys46.2%34-17
2025-12-21Kansas City ChiefsatTennessee Titans19.5%9-26
2025-12-21Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants32.5%16-13
2025-12-21New York JetsatNew Orleans Saints64.4%6-29
2025-12-21Pittsburgh SteelersatDetroit Lions70.5%29-24
2025-12-21New England PatriotsatBaltimore Ravens58.8%28-24
2025-12-21Las Vegas RaidersatHouston Texans91.2%21-23
2025-12-22San Francisco 49ersatIndianapolis Colts50.3%48-27
2025-12-25Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs43.3%20-13
2025-12-25Dallas CowboysatWashington Commandersstarters rested56.0%30-23
2025-12-25Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings49.3%10-23
2025-12-27Houston TexansatLos Angeles Chargers53.1%20-16
2025-12-27Baltimore RavensatGreen Bay Packersstarters rested70.7%41-24
2025-12-28Arizona CardinalsatCincinnati Bengals73.6%14-37
2025-12-28Philadelphia EaglesatBuffalo Bills62.3%13-12
2025-12-28Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns28.3%6-13
2025-12-28Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMiami Dolphinsstarters rested54.3%17-20
2025-12-28Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts42.0%23-17
2025-12-28New York GiantsatLas Vegas Raiders55.9%34-10
2025-12-28New England PatriotsatNew York Jets24.4%42-10
2025-12-28Seattle SeahawksatCarolina Panthers25.6%27-10
2025-12-28New Orleans SaintsatTennessee Titans47.6%34-26
2025-12-28Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers63.4%38-42
2025-12-29Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons26.2%24-27
2026-01-03Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers66.5%14-16
2026-01-03Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers48.6%13-3
2026-01-04Detroit LionsatChicago Bears58.0%19-16
2026-01-04Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals74.4%20-18
2026-01-04New York JetsatBuffalo Billsstarters rested91.8%8-35
2026-01-04Los Angeles ChargersatDenver Broncos68.8%3-19
2026-01-04Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams89.5%20-37
2026-01-04Kansas City ChiefsatLas Vegas Raidersstarters rested26.1%12-14
2026-01-04Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans81.6%30-38
2026-01-04Washington CommandersatPhiladelphia Eaglesstarters rested85.7%24-17
2026-01-04Dallas CowboysatNew York Giantsstarters rested42.1%17-34
2026-01-04Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots76.2%10-38
2026-01-04New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falconsstarters rested64.2%17-19
2026-01-04Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars90.2%7-41
2026-01-04Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings55.8%3-16
2026-01-04Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers52.8%24-26
2026-01-10Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears57.7%27-31
2026-01-10Los Angeles RamsatCarolina Panthers25.2%34-31
2026-01-11San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles61.7%23-19
2026-01-11Buffalo BillsatJacksonville Jaguars53.9%27-24
2026-01-11Los Angeles ChargersatNew England Patriots65.4%3-16
2026-01-12Houston TexansatPittsburgh Steelers42.1%30-6
2026-01-17San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks72.2%6-41
2026-01-17Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos58.4%30-33
2026-01-18Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears43.9%20-17
2026-01-18Houston TexansatNew England Patriots50.0%16-28
2026-01-25New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos63.1%10-7
2026-01-25Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks66.4%27-31
2026-02-08New England PatriotsvsSeattle Seahawks60.3%13-29

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.