The expectation ledger

The 2022 season, against expectation

Every game of 2022scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
284
Model Brier
0.2218
Market Brier
0.2118
Longest odds beaten
16.6%
Houston Texans

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2022.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2022 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2022-09-08Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Rams59.3%31-10
2022-09-11San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears40.5%10-19
2022-09-11Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals65.7%23-20
2022-09-11Cleveland BrownsatCarolina Panthers46.3%26-24
2022-09-11Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys52.4%19-3
2022-09-11Kansas City ChiefsatArizona Cardinals41.2%44-21
2022-09-11Las Vegas RaidersatLos Angeles Chargers60.9%19-24
2022-09-11Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans40.3%20-20
2022-09-11Jacksonville JaguarsatWashington Commanders73.7%22-28
2022-09-11New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins59.7%7-20
2022-09-11Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lions45.5%38-35
2022-09-11New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons44.0%27-26
2022-09-11New York GiantsatTennessee Titansshock79.5%21-20
2022-09-11Baltimore RavensatNew York Jets38.8%24-9
2022-09-11Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings48.4%7-23
2022-09-12Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks69.7%16-17
2022-09-15Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefs76.0%24-27
2022-09-18Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers70.6%10-27
2022-09-18Cincinnati BengalsatDallas Cowboys58.3%17-20
2022-09-18Houston TexansatDenver Broncos63.4%9-16
2022-09-18New York JetsatCleveland Brownsshock79.3%31-30
2022-09-18Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints46.4%20-10
2022-09-18Arizona CardinalsatLas Vegas Raiders59.7%29-23
2022-09-18Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars31.8%0-24
2022-09-18Washington CommandersatDetroit Lions47.7%27-36
2022-09-18Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Ravens54.9%42-38
2022-09-18Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams77.1%27-31
2022-09-18Carolina PanthersatNew York Giants58.8%16-19
2022-09-18New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers61.0%17-14
2022-09-18Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers61.6%7-27
2022-09-19Tennessee TitansatBuffalo Bills73.1%7-41
2022-09-19Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles55.3%7-24
2022-09-22Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns57.6%17-29
2022-09-25San Francisco 49ersatDenver Broncos43.2%10-11
2022-09-25Houston TexansatChicago Bears67.1%20-23
2022-09-25Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets35.2%27-12
2022-09-25Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins46.2%19-21
2022-09-25Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers70.5%14-12
2022-09-25Los Angeles RamsatArizona Cardinals47.3%20-12
2022-09-25Jacksonville JaguarsatLos Angeles Chargers74.8%38-10
2022-09-25Kansas City ChiefsatIndianapolis Colts35.7%17-20
2022-09-25Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Commanders46.5%24-8
2022-09-25Atlanta FalconsatSeattle Seahawks70.3%27-23
2022-09-25Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings72.1%24-28
2022-09-25New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers39.7%14-22
2022-09-25Baltimore RavensatNew England Patriots62.3%37-26
2022-09-25Las Vegas RaidersatTennessee Titans68.6%22-24
2022-09-26Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants40.2%23-16
2022-09-29Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals53.0%15-27
2022-10-02Chicago BearsatNew York Giants48.9%12-20
2022-10-02Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Ravens43.0%23-20
2022-10-02Denver BroncosatLas Vegas Raiders56.9%23-32
2022-10-02Cleveland BrownsatAtlanta Falcons48.9%20-23
2022-10-02Kansas City ChiefsatTampa Bay Buccaneers59.8%41-31
2022-10-02Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers50.4%26-16
2022-10-02Los Angeles ChargersatHouston Texans49.5%34-24
2022-10-02Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts56.4%24-17
2022-10-02Washington CommandersatDallas Cowboys76.0%10-25
2022-10-02Jacksonville JaguarsatPhiladelphia Eagles74.6%21-29
2022-10-02New York JetsatPittsburgh Steelers77.8%24-20
2022-10-02Seattle SeahawksatDetroit Lions48.6%48-45
2022-10-02New England PatriotsatGreen Bay Packers71.0%24-27
2022-10-02Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints46.3%28-25
2022-10-03Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers53.3%9-24
2022-10-06Indianapolis ColtsatDenver Broncos53.4%12-9
2022-10-09San Francisco 49ersatCarolina Panthers32.2%37-15
2022-10-09Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings71.6%22-29
2022-10-09Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens53.9%17-19
2022-10-09Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills82.7%3-38
2022-10-09Los Angeles ChargersatCleveland Browns62.7%30-28
2022-10-09Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers77.8%15-21
2022-10-09Philadelphia EaglesatArizona Cardinals48.9%20-17
2022-10-09Tennessee TitansatWashington Commanders38.8%21-17
2022-10-09Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Rams60.2%22-10
2022-10-09Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets31.4%17-40
2022-10-09New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers74.3%27-22
2022-10-09Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars68.2%13-6
2022-10-09Detroit LionsatNew England Patriots71.9%0-29
2022-10-09Seattle SeahawksatNew Orleans Saints57.9%32-39
2022-10-10Las Vegas RaidersatKansas City Chiefs82.4%29-30
2022-10-13Washington CommandersatChicago Bears63.6%12-7
2022-10-16San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons37.7%14-28
2022-10-16Cincinnati BengalsatNew Orleans Saints51.4%30-26
2022-10-16Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs58.2%24-20
2022-10-16New England PatriotsatCleveland Browns56.5%38-15
2022-10-16Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPittsburgh Steelers35.1%18-20
2022-10-16Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks57.9%9-19
2022-10-16Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts72.0%27-34
2022-10-16Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles57.4%17-26
2022-10-16Minnesota VikingsatMiami Dolphins55.1%24-16
2022-10-16Baltimore RavensatNew York Giants45.3%20-24
2022-10-16New York JetsatGreen Bay Packers78.4%27-10
2022-10-16Carolina PanthersatLos Angeles Rams79.7%10-24
2022-10-17Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargers67.8%16-19
2022-10-20New Orleans SaintsatArizona Cardinals56.8%34-42
2022-10-23Atlanta FalconsatCincinnati Bengals70.6%17-35
2022-10-23New York JetsatDenver Broncos53.6%16-9
2022-10-23Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens68.3%20-23
2022-10-23Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers26.3%3-21
2022-10-23Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Chargers59.8%37-23
2022-10-23Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans66.6%10-19
2022-10-23Green Bay PackersatWashington Commanders45.5%21-23
2022-10-23Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys82.6%6-24
2022-10-23Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins63.2%10-16
2022-10-23New York GiantsatJacksonville Jaguars49.3%23-17
2022-10-23Houston TexansatLas Vegas Raiders68.5%20-38
2022-10-23Kansas City ChiefsatSan Francisco 49ers47.5%44-23
2022-10-24Chicago BearsatNew England Patriots76.5%33-14
2022-10-27Baltimore RavensatTampa Bay Buccaneers63.1%27-22
2022-10-30San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams61.2%31-14
2022-10-30Chicago BearsatDallas Cowboys75.9%29-49
2022-10-30Green Bay PackersatBuffalo Bills81.4%17-27
2022-10-30Denver BroncosatJacksonville Jaguars46.1%21-17
2022-10-30Arizona CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings70.3%26-34
2022-10-30Washington CommandersatIndianapolis Colts67.6%17-16
2022-10-30Miami DolphinsatDetroit Lions39.4%31-27
2022-10-30Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles78.1%13-35
2022-10-30Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons67.5%34-37
2022-10-30New York GiantsatSeattle Seahawks66.2%13-27
2022-10-30New England PatriotsatNew York Jets57.4%22-17
2022-10-30Las Vegas RaidersatNew Orleans Saints57.3%0-24
2022-10-30Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans30.9%17-10
2022-10-31Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns38.6%13-32
2022-11-03Philadelphia EaglesatHouston Texans25.1%29-17
2022-11-06Miami DolphinsatChicago Bears48.4%35-32
2022-11-06Carolina PanthersatCincinnati Bengals77.7%21-42
2022-11-06Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets26.3%17-20
2022-11-06Los Angeles RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers61.7%13-16
2022-11-06Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals48.7%31-21
2022-11-06Los Angeles ChargersatAtlanta Falcons60.8%20-17
2022-11-06Tennessee TitansatKansas City Chiefs70.7%17-20
2022-11-06Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots63.3%3-26
2022-11-06Minnesota VikingsatWashington Commanders39.3%20-17
2022-11-06Las Vegas RaidersatJacksonville Jaguars45.3%20-27
2022-11-06Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions38.9%9-15
2022-11-07Baltimore RavensatNew Orleans Saints50.7%27-13
2022-11-10Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers48.7%15-25
2022-11-13Detroit LionsatChicago Bears66.0%31-30
2022-11-13Minnesota VikingsatBuffalo Bills70.8%33-30
2022-11-13Denver BroncosatTennessee Titans79.7%10-17
2022-11-13Cleveland BrownsatMiami Dolphins65.9%17-39
2022-11-13Seattle SeahawksatTampa Bay Buccaneers46.2%16-21
2022-11-13Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams66.8%27-17
2022-11-13Jacksonville JaguarsatKansas City Chiefs89.6%17-27
2022-11-13Indianapolis ColtsatLas Vegas Raiders54.6%25-20
2022-11-13Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers40.6%28-31
2022-11-13Houston TexansatNew York Giants73.2%16-24
2022-11-13New Orleans SaintsatPittsburgh Steelers55.2%10-20
2022-11-13Los Angeles ChargersatSan Francisco 49ers71.1%16-22
2022-11-14Washington CommandersatPhiladelphia Eaglesshock82.0%32-21
2022-11-17Tennessee TitansatGreen Bay Packers44.6%27-17
2022-11-20Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons61.7%24-27
2022-11-20Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers44.2%37-30
2022-11-20Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills82.1%23-31
2022-11-20Las Vegas RaidersatDenver Broncos58.4%22-16
2022-11-20Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Chargers29.4%30-27
2022-11-20Philadelphia EaglesatIndianapolis Colts44.9%17-16
2022-11-20Washington CommandersatHouston Texans39.6%23-10
2022-11-20Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings63.1%40-3
2022-11-20Detroit LionsatNew York Giants70.2%31-18
2022-11-20New York JetsatNew England Patriots66.6%3-10
2022-11-20Carolina PanthersatBaltimore Ravens79.3%3-13
2022-11-20Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints55.3%20-27
2022-11-21San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals35.7%38-10
2022-11-24Buffalo BillsatDetroit Lions26.7%28-25
2022-11-24New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys82.3%20-28
2022-11-24New England PatriotsatMinnesota Vikings61.4%26-33
2022-11-27Chicago BearsatNew York Jets67.4%10-31
2022-11-27Cincinnati BengalsatTennessee Titans63.4%20-16
2022-11-27Denver BroncosatCarolina Panthers62.3%10-23
2022-11-27Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCleveland Browns43.7%17-23
2022-11-27Los Angeles ChargersatArizona Cardinals58.5%25-24
2022-11-27Los Angeles RamsatKansas City Chiefs85.6%10-26
2022-11-27Atlanta FalconsatWashington Commanders66.2%13-19
2022-11-27Houston TexansatMiami Dolphins84.7%15-30
2022-11-27Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles74.5%33-40
2022-11-27Baltimore RavensatJacksonville Jaguars29.6%27-28
2022-11-27Las Vegas RaidersatSeattle Seahawks74.1%40-34
2022-11-27New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers77.2%0-13
2022-11-28Pittsburgh SteelersatIndianapolis Colts64.3%24-17
2022-12-01Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots39.5%24-10
2022-12-04Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears49.4%28-19
2022-12-04Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals44.6%24-27
2022-12-04Denver BroncosatBaltimore Ravens83.6%9-10
2022-12-04Cleveland BrownsatHouston Texans36.0%27-14
2022-12-04Los Angeles ChargersatLas Vegas Raiders57.9%20-27
2022-12-04Indianapolis ColtsatDallas Cowboys81.5%19-54
2022-12-04Washington CommandersatNew York Giants47.0%20-20
2022-12-04Tennessee TitansatPhiladelphia Eagles60.4%10-35
2022-12-04Pittsburgh SteelersatAtlanta Falcons54.5%19-16
2022-12-04Jacksonville JaguarsatDetroit Lions64.2%14-40
2022-12-04New York JetsatMinnesota Vikings71.3%22-27
2022-12-04Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams48.9%27-23
2022-12-04Miami DolphinsatSan Francisco 49ers67.4%17-33
2022-12-05New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers70.9%16-17
2022-12-08Las Vegas RaidersatLos Angeles Rams52.0%16-17
2022-12-11Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals74.8%10-23
2022-12-11New York JetsatBuffalo Bills83.5%12-20
2022-12-11Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos17.8%34-28
2022-12-11Miami DolphinsatLos Angeles Chargers47.3%17-23
2022-12-11Houston TexansatDallas Cowboys92.0%23-27
2022-12-11Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants31.7%48-22
2022-12-11Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titansshock82.5%36-22
2022-12-11Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions38.2%23-34
2022-12-11Carolina PanthersatSeattle Seahawks73.6%30-24
2022-12-11Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers45.3%16-14
2022-12-11Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers71.2%7-35
2022-12-12New England PatriotsatArizona Cardinals50.4%27-13
2022-12-15San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks37.8%21-13
2022-12-17Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills80.5%29-32
2022-12-17Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns43.9%3-13
2022-12-17Indianapolis ColtsatMinnesota Vikings74.7%36-39
2022-12-18Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears22.7%25-20
2022-12-18Cincinnati BengalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers44.4%34-23
2022-12-18Arizona CardinalsatDenver Broncos49.0%15-24
2022-12-18Tennessee TitansatLos Angeles Chargers54.0%14-17
2022-12-18Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Texans12.4%30-24
2022-12-18New York GiantsatWashington Commanders72.6%20-12
2022-12-18Dallas CowboysatJacksonville Jaguars26.5%34-40
2022-12-18Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints63.2%18-21
2022-12-18Detroit LionsatNew York Jets58.9%20-17
2022-12-18Pittsburgh SteelersatCarolina Panthers56.4%24-16
2022-12-18New England PatriotsatLas Vegas Raiders49.8%24-30
2022-12-19Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers65.1%12-24
2022-12-22Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Jets60.9%19-3
2022-12-24Buffalo BillsatChicago Bears16.4%35-13
2022-12-24Cincinnati BengalsatNew England Patriots40.7%22-18
2022-12-24New Orleans SaintsatCleveland Browns66.3%17-10
2022-12-24Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs83.2%10-24
2022-12-24Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys55.4%34-40
2022-12-24Atlanta FalconsatBaltimore Ravens77.9%9-17
2022-12-24New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings75.0%24-27
2022-12-24Detroit LionsatCarolina Panthers50.1%23-37
2022-12-24Las Vegas RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers59.8%10-13
2022-12-24Houston TexansatTennessee Titansshock83.4%19-14
2022-12-24Washington CommandersatSan Francisco 49ers81.8%20-37
2022-12-25Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Rams65.2%14-51
2022-12-25Tampa Bay BuccaneersatArizona Cardinals44.5%19-16
2022-12-25Green Bay PackersatMiami Dolphins61.7%26-20
2022-12-26Los Angeles ChargersatIndianapolis Colts50.7%20-3
2022-12-29Dallas CowboysatTennessee Titans35.0%27-13
2023-01-01San Francisco 49ersatLas Vegas Raidersstarters rested31.9%37-34
2023-01-01Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions73.8%10-41
2023-01-01Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs91.9%24-27
2023-01-01Cleveland BrownsatWashington Commandersstarters rested57.1%24-10
2023-01-01Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers67.6%24-30
2023-01-01Arizona CardinalsatAtlanta Falconsstarters rested60.7%19-20
2023-01-01Los Angeles RamsatLos Angeles Chargers69.2%10-31
2023-01-01Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Giants63.7%10-38
2023-01-01Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots61.8%21-23
2023-01-01New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eaglesstarters rested77.3%20-10
2023-01-01Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans37.0%31-3
2023-01-01New York JetsatSeattle Seahawks67.3%6-23
2023-01-01Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers52.2%17-41
2023-01-01Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravensstarters rested67.6%16-13
2023-01-07Kansas City ChiefsatLas Vegas Raiders27.3%31-13
2023-01-07Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars66.4%16-20
2023-01-08Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears30.4%29-13
2023-01-08Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals73.6%16-27
2023-01-08New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills82.0%23-35
2023-01-08Los Angeles ChargersatDenver Broncos33.1%28-31
2023-01-08Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers61.5%14-28
2023-01-08Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons41.6%17-30
2023-01-08Houston TexansatIndianapolis Coltsstarters rested69.7%32-31
2023-01-08Dallas CowboysatWashington Commanders28.5%6-26
2023-01-08New York JetsatMiami Dolphinsstarters rested69.8%6-11
2023-01-08New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles76.1%16-22
2023-01-08Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers68.7%20-16
2023-01-08Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints70.3%10-7
2023-01-08Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks68.6%16-19
2023-01-08Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ersstarters rested89.4%13-38
2023-01-14Los Angeles ChargersatJacksonville Jaguars58.6%30-31
2023-01-14Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers81.2%23-41
2023-01-15Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals76.3%17-24
2023-01-15Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills84.6%31-34
2023-01-15New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings73.2%31-24
2023-01-16Dallas CowboysatTampa Bay Buccaneers42.9%31-14
2023-01-21Jacksonville JaguarsatKansas City Chiefs82.7%20-27
2023-01-21New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles74.3%7-38
2023-01-22Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills64.8%27-10
2023-01-22Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers68.4%12-19
2023-01-29San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles45.1%7-31
2023-01-29Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs60.1%20-23
2023-02-12Philadelphia EaglesvsKansas City Chiefs62.5%35-38

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.