The expectation ledger

The 2021 season, against expectation

Every game of 2021scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
285
Model Brier
0.2344
Market Brier
0.2172
Longest odds beaten
10.3%
Houston Texans

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2021.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2021 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2021-09-09Dallas CowboysatTampa Bay Buccaneers82.5%29-31
2021-09-12San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions45.0%41-33
2021-09-12Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams69.2%14-34
2021-09-12Minnesota VikingsatCincinnati Bengals47.5%24-27
2021-09-12Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills73.0%23-16
2021-09-12Denver BroncosatNew York Giants55.8%27-13
2021-09-12Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs73.4%29-33
2021-09-12Arizona CardinalsatTennessee Titans68.1%38-13
2021-09-12Los Angeles ChargersatWashington Football Team54.5%20-16
2021-09-12Seattle SeahawksatIndianapolis Colts58.7%28-16
2021-09-12Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots54.9%17-16
2021-09-12Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons67.0%32-6
2021-09-12Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans71.4%21-37
2021-09-12New York JetsatCarolina Panthers66.6%14-19
2021-09-12Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints47.9%3-38
2021-09-13Baltimore RavensatLas Vegas Raiders40.4%27-33
2021-09-16New York GiantsatWashington Football Team66.1%29-30
2021-09-19San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles54.0%17-11
2021-09-19Cincinnati BengalsatChicago Bears66.2%17-20
2021-09-19Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins50.6%35-0
2021-09-19Denver BroncosatJacksonville Jaguars37.1%23-13
2021-09-19Houston TexansatCleveland Browns69.2%21-31
2021-09-19Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers83.9%25-48
2021-09-19Minnesota VikingsatArizona Cardinals66.5%33-34
2021-09-19Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Chargers68.0%20-17
2021-09-19Kansas City ChiefsatBaltimore Ravens49.4%35-36
2021-09-19Los Angeles RamsatIndianapolis Colts50.9%27-24
2021-09-19New England PatriotsatNew York Jets41.8%25-6
2021-09-19New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers30.9%7-26
2021-09-19Las Vegas RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers67.5%26-17
2021-09-19Tennessee TitansatSeattle Seahawks71.0%33-30
2021-09-20Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers83.8%17-35
2021-09-23Carolina PanthersatHouston Texans51.0%24-9
2021-09-26Chicago BearsatCleveland Browns66.0%6-26
2021-09-26Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers73.1%24-10
2021-09-26Washington Football TeamatBuffalo Bills81.0%21-43
2021-09-26New York JetsatDenver Broncos77.7%0-26
2021-09-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatLos Angeles Rams50.0%24-34
2021-09-26Arizona CardinalsatJacksonville Jaguars27.8%31-19
2021-09-26Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefs77.5%30-24
2021-09-26Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans60.8%16-25
2021-09-26Miami DolphinsatLas Vegas Raiders62.9%28-31
2021-09-26Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants53.8%17-14
2021-09-26Baltimore RavensatDetroit Lions28.3%19-17
2021-09-26New Orleans SaintsatNew England Patriots46.3%28-13
2021-09-26Seattle SeahawksatMinnesota Vikings45.0%17-30
2021-09-26Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers49.5%30-28
2021-09-27Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys61.6%21-41
2021-09-30Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals79.2%21-24
2021-10-03Detroit LionsatChicago Bears73.3%14-24
2021-10-03Houston TexansatBuffalo Bills85.4%0-40
2021-10-03Baltimore RavensatDenver Broncos47.3%23-7
2021-10-03Cleveland BrownsatMinnesota Vikings51.8%14-7
2021-10-03Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew England Patriots37.7%19-17
2021-10-03Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams69.3%37-20
2021-10-03Kansas City ChiefsatPhiladelphia Eagles33.8%42-30
2021-10-03Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins58.5%27-17
2021-10-03Washington Football TeamatAtlanta Falcons59.9%34-30
2021-10-03Carolina PanthersatDallas Cowboys55.2%28-36
2021-10-03New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saintsshock86.6%27-21
2021-10-03Tennessee TitansatNew York Jets30.0%24-27
2021-10-03Pittsburgh SteelersatGreen Bay Packers75.2%17-27
2021-10-03Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers55.7%28-21
2021-10-04Las Vegas RaidersatLos Angeles Chargers57.6%14-28
2021-10-07Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks57.1%26-17
2021-10-10San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals71.8%10-17
2021-10-10Chicago BearsatLas Vegas Raiders64.4%20-9
2021-10-10Green Bay PackersatCincinnati Bengals37.2%25-22
2021-10-10Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs55.0%38-20
2021-10-10Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelers57.6%19-27
2021-10-10Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Chargers55.2%42-47
2021-10-10Miami DolphinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers81.1%17-45
2021-10-10New Orleans SaintsatWashington Football Team40.1%33-22
2021-10-10New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys71.7%20-44
2021-10-10Philadelphia EaglesatCarolina Panthers70.7%21-18
2021-10-10New York JetsatAtlanta Falcons60.0%20-27
2021-10-10Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars27.2%37-19
2021-10-10Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings76.3%17-19
2021-10-10New England PatriotsatHouston Texans46.7%25-22
2021-10-11Indianapolis ColtsatBaltimore Ravens71.4%25-31
2021-10-14Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPhiladelphia Eagles27.9%28-22
2021-10-17Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears42.3%24-14
2021-10-17Cincinnati BengalsatDetroit Lions42.7%34-11
2021-10-17Las Vegas RaidersatDenver Broncos56.8%34-24
2021-10-17Arizona CardinalsatCleveland Browns53.3%37-14
2021-10-17Los Angeles ChargersatBaltimore Ravens67.9%6-34
2021-10-17Kansas City ChiefsatWashington Football Team37.4%31-13
2021-10-17Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts75.9%3-31
2021-10-17Dallas CowboysatNew England Patriots54.9%35-29
2021-10-17Miami DolphinsatJacksonville Jaguars26.2%20-23
2021-10-17Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants29.8%38-11
2021-10-17Minnesota VikingsatCarolina Panthers58.1%34-28
2021-10-17Seattle SeahawksatPittsburgh Steelers51.9%20-23
2021-10-18Buffalo BillsatTennessee Titans37.8%31-34
2021-10-21Denver BroncosatCleveland Browns71.0%14-17
2021-10-24Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers80.5%3-38
2021-10-24Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens79.4%41-17
2021-10-24Houston TexansatArizona Cardinals87.4%5-31
2021-10-24Kansas City ChiefsatTennessee Titans50.9%3-27
2021-10-24Washington Football TeamatGreen Bay Packers84.8%10-24
2021-10-24Atlanta FalconsatMiami Dolphins58.0%30-28
2021-10-24Philadelphia EaglesatLas Vegas Raiders70.7%22-33
2021-10-24Carolina PanthersatNew York Giants48.2%3-25
2021-10-24New York JetsatNew England Patriots76.3%13-54
2021-10-24Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams90.0%19-28
2021-10-24Indianapolis ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers52.7%30-18
2021-10-25New Orleans SaintsatSeattle Seahawks47.3%13-10
2021-10-28Green Bay PackersatArizona Cardinals57.5%24-21
2021-10-31San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears62.3%33-22
2021-10-31Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets29.2%31-34
2021-10-31Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills86.3%11-26
2021-10-31Washington Football TeamatDenver Broncos61.9%10-17
2021-10-31Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns63.7%15-10
2021-10-31Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints50.7%27-36
2021-10-31New England PatriotsatLos Angeles Chargers66.5%27-24
2021-10-31Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts55.2%34-31
2021-10-31Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings53.8%20-16
2021-10-31Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lions44.9%44-6
2021-10-31Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons63.2%19-13
2021-10-31Jacksonville JaguarsatSeattle Seahawks83.8%7-31
2021-10-31Los Angeles RamsatHouston Texans23.2%38-22
2021-11-01New York GiantsatKansas City Chiefs79.7%17-20
2021-11-04New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts82.3%30-45
2021-11-07Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals60.1%41-16
2021-11-07Buffalo BillsatJacksonville Jaguarsshock13.2%6-9
2021-11-07Denver BroncosatDallas Cowboys74.5%30-16
2021-11-07Los Angeles ChargersatPhiladelphia Eagles47.3%27-24
2021-11-07Green Bay PackersatKansas City Chiefs47.0%7-13
2021-11-07Houston TexansatMiami Dolphins67.5%9-17
2021-11-07Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints83.9%27-25
2021-11-07Las Vegas RaidersatNew York Giants42.3%16-23
2021-11-07New England PatriotsatCarolina Panthers50.5%24-6
2021-11-07Tennessee TitansatLos Angeles Rams65.0%28-16
2021-11-07Minnesota VikingsatBaltimore Ravens72.2%31-34
2021-11-07Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers39.5%31-17
2021-11-08Chicago BearsatPittsburgh Steelers69.6%27-29
2021-11-11Baltimore RavensatMiami Dolphins34.4%10-22
2021-11-14Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets18.9%45-17
2021-11-14Philadelphia EaglesatDenver Broncos67.3%30-13
2021-11-14Cleveland BrownsatNew England Patriots57.6%7-45
2021-11-14Tampa Bay BuccaneersatWashington Football Team23.7%19-29
2021-11-14Carolina PanthersatArizona Cardinals84.6%34-10
2021-11-14Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Chargers66.3%27-20
2021-11-14Kansas City ChiefsatLas Vegas Raiders43.7%41-14
2021-11-14Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts85.1%17-23
2021-11-14Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys69.1%3-43
2021-11-14Detroit LionsatPittsburgh Steelers86.4%16-16
2021-11-14Seattle SeahawksatGreen Bay Packers75.3%0-17
2021-11-14New Orleans SaintsatTennessee Titans60.8%21-23
2021-11-15Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers39.3%10-31
2021-11-18New England PatriotsatAtlanta Falcons38.8%25-0
2021-11-21San Francisco 49ersatJacksonville Jaguars31.6%30-10
2021-11-21Baltimore RavensatChicago Bears41.5%16-13
2021-11-21Cincinnati BengalsatLas Vegas Raiders58.4%32-13
2021-11-21Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills72.6%41-15
2021-11-21Detroit LionsatCleveland Browns84.8%10-13
2021-11-21Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks48.5%23-13
2021-11-21Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Chargers57.5%37-41
2021-11-21Dallas CowboysatKansas City Chiefs71.4%9-19
2021-11-21Washington Football TeamatCarolina Panthers65.5%27-21
2021-11-21Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets39.6%24-17
2021-11-21New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eagles38.2%29-40
2021-11-21Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings37.8%31-34
2021-11-21Houston TexansatTennessee Titansshock89.7%22-13
2021-11-22New York GiantsatTampa Bay Buccaneers81.5%10-30
2021-11-25Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions38.5%16-14
2021-11-25Buffalo BillsatNew Orleans Saints56.0%31-6
2021-11-25Las Vegas RaidersatDallas Cowboys71.6%36-33
2021-11-28Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals59.9%10-41
2021-11-28Los Angeles ChargersatDenver Broncos48.6%13-28
2021-11-28Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens66.1%10-16
2021-11-28Tampa Bay BuccaneersatIndianapolis Colts55.8%38-31
2021-11-28Carolina PanthersatMiami Dolphins62.0%10-33
2021-11-28Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants47.6%7-13
2021-11-28Atlanta FalconsatJacksonville Jaguars43.4%21-14
2021-11-28New York JetsatHouston Texans69.7%21-14
2021-11-28Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers69.4%28-36
2021-11-28Tennessee TitansatNew England Patriots59.0%13-36
2021-11-28Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers58.4%26-34
2021-11-29Seattle SeahawksatWashington Football Team55.6%15-17
2021-12-02Dallas CowboysatNew Orleans Saints64.7%27-17
2021-12-05San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks50.0%23-30
2021-12-05Arizona CardinalsatChicago Bears35.1%33-22
2021-12-05Los Angeles ChargersatCincinnati Bengals65.5%41-22
2021-12-05Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs79.8%9-22
2021-12-05Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons27.1%30-17
2021-12-05Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans27.7%31-0
2021-12-05Washington Football TeamatLas Vegas Raiders57.1%17-15
2021-12-05New York GiantsatMiami Dolphins67.0%9-20
2021-12-05Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Jets38.6%33-18
2021-12-05Jacksonville JaguarsatLos Angeles Rams88.3%7-37
2021-12-05Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions26.8%27-29
2021-12-05Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers43.9%19-20
2021-12-06New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills62.9%14-10
2021-12-09Pittsburgh SteelersatMinnesota Vikings60.3%28-36
2021-12-12San Francisco 49ersatCincinnati Bengals55.8%26-23
2021-12-12Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers85.2%30-45
2021-12-12Buffalo BillsatTampa Bay Buccaneers65.2%27-33
2021-12-12Detroit LionsatDenver Broncos79.8%10-38
2021-12-12Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns49.5%22-24
2021-12-12New York GiantsatLos Angeles Chargers73.3%21-37
2021-12-12Las Vegas RaidersatKansas City Chiefs83.5%9-48
2021-12-12Dallas CowboysatWashington Football Team51.1%27-20
2021-12-12Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers62.8%29-21
2021-12-12Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans89.4%0-20
2021-12-12New Orleans SaintsatNew York Jets31.3%30-9
2021-12-12Seattle SeahawksatHouston Texans36.1%33-13
2021-12-13Los Angeles RamsatArizona Cardinals67.4%30-23
2021-12-16Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Chargers41.9%34-28
2021-12-18New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts53.8%17-27
2021-12-19Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos58.7%15-10
2021-12-19Carolina PanthersatBuffalo Bills82.9%14-31
2021-12-19New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers77.3%9-0
2021-12-19Arizona CardinalsatDetroit Lions19.1%12-30
2021-12-19Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants37.7%21-6
2021-12-19New York JetsatMiami Dolphins83.5%24-31
2021-12-19Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars51.5%30-16
2021-12-19Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Ravens45.2%31-30
2021-12-19Tennessee TitansatPittsburgh Steelers44.4%13-19
2021-12-19Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers72.6%13-31
2021-12-20Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears45.0%17-9
2021-12-20Las Vegas RaidersatCleveland Browns71.0%16-14
2021-12-21Washington Football TeamatPhiladelphia Eagles64.5%17-27
2021-12-21Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams69.1%10-20
2021-12-23San Francisco 49ersatTennessee Titans59.3%17-20
2021-12-25Cleveland BrownsatGreen Bay Packers79.2%22-24
2021-12-25Indianapolis ColtsatArizona Cardinals47.6%22-16
2021-12-26Chicago BearsatSeattle Seahawks73.5%25-24
2021-12-26Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals50.8%21-41
2021-12-26Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots59.0%33-21
2021-12-26Denver BroncosatLas Vegas Raiders58.2%13-17
2021-12-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers25.7%32-6
2021-12-26Los Angeles ChargersatHouston Texans32.7%29-41
2021-12-26Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs81.5%10-36
2021-12-26Washington Football TeamatDallas Cowboys76.1%14-56
2021-12-26New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles75.1%10-34
2021-12-26Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons70.3%16-20
2021-12-26Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Jets67.1%21-26
2021-12-26Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings48.5%30-23
2021-12-27Miami DolphinsatNew Orleans Saints66.5%20-3
2022-01-02New York GiantsatChicago Bearsstarters rested63.3%3-29
2022-01-02Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals36.3%31-34
2022-01-02Atlanta FalconsatBuffalo Bills84.1%15-29
2022-01-02Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargers66.3%13-34
2022-01-02Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Jets15.7%28-24
2022-01-02Arizona CardinalsatDallas Cowboys69.1%25-22
2022-01-02Las Vegas RaidersatIndianapolis Colts80.4%23-20
2022-01-02Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Football Team44.7%20-16
2022-01-02Miami DolphinsatTennessee Titans59.9%3-34
2022-01-02Jacksonville JaguarsatNew England Patriots92.3%10-50
2022-01-02Detroit LionsatSeattle Seahawks79.5%29-51
2022-01-02Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers79.0%10-37
2022-01-02Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saintsstarters rested78.0%10-18
2022-01-02Los Angeles RamsatBaltimore Ravens45.7%20-19
2022-01-02Houston TexansatSan Francisco 49ersstarters rested78.9%7-23
2022-01-03Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers56.5%14-26
2022-01-08Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos25.1%28-24
2022-01-08Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eaglesstarters rested54.7%51-26
2022-01-09San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams69.9%27-24
2022-01-09Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings68.7%17-31
2022-01-09Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Brownsstarters rested49.0%16-21
2022-01-09New York JetsatBuffalo Bills92.1%10-27
2022-01-09Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers88.7%17-41
2022-01-09Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals64.4%38-30
2022-01-09Los Angeles ChargersatLas Vegas Raiders55.2%32-35
2022-01-09Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguarsshock12.6%11-26
2022-01-09Washington Football TeamatNew York Giantsstarters rested50.2%22-7
2022-01-09New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins50.9%24-33
2022-01-09New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falconsstarters rested41.9%30-20
2022-01-09Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lionsshock14.2%30-37
2022-01-09Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravensstarters rested62.3%16-13
2022-01-09Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans28.6%28-25
2022-01-15Las Vegas RaidersatCincinnati Bengals63.9%19-26
2022-01-15New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills71.4%17-47
2022-01-16San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys64.8%23-17
2022-01-16Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers78.4%15-31
2022-01-16Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs78.8%21-42
2022-01-17Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams72.0%11-34
2022-01-22San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers65.8%13-10
2022-01-22Cincinnati BengalsatTennessee Titans66.1%19-16
2022-01-23Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs61.5%36-42
2022-01-23Los Angeles RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers65.9%30-27
2022-01-30San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams63.4%17-20
2022-01-30Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs77.0%27-24
2022-02-13Cincinnati BengalsatLos Angeles Rams68.3%20-23

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.