The expectation ledger

The 2020 season, against expectation

Every game of 2020scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 20192021→
Games
269
Model Brier
0.2184
Market Brier
0.2022
Longest odds beaten
8.0%
New York Jets

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2020.

1
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
13
exp 9.10
2
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
11
exp 8.37
3
Miami Dolphins
Miami
10
exp 7.67
4
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
11
exp 8.79
5
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
13
exp 10.79
6
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
14
exp 11.82
7
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
12
exp 9.93
8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
11
exp 9.11
9
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
12
exp 10.15
10
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
12
exp 10.64
11
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas
8
exp 7.24
12
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
11
exp 10.24
Show all 32 rows
13
Washington Football Team
Washington-Baltimore
7
exp 6.27
14
New York Giants
New York
6
exp 5.29
15
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles
7
exp 6.64
16
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
10
exp 9.67
17
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
8
exp 7.88
18
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
11
exp 11.07
19
Chicago Bears
Chicago
8
exp 8.35
20
Detroit Lions
Detroit
5
exp 5.56
21
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
5
exp 5.80
22
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
4.5
exp 5.35
23
Denver Broncos
Denver
5
exp 6.45
24
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
6
exp 7.46
25
New England Patriots
Boston
7
exp 8.49
26
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
7
exp 8.59
27
New York Jets
New York
2
exp 4.55
28
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
6
exp 8.61
29
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
4.5
exp 7.25
30
Houston Texans
Houston
4
exp 6.97
31
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
4
exp 7.00
32
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
1
exp 4.91

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2020 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2020-09-10Houston TexansatKansas City Chiefs76.2%20-34
2020-09-13Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions42.1%27-23
2020-09-13Los Angeles ChargersatCincinnati Bengals46.7%16-13
2020-09-13New York JetsatBuffalo Bills66.4%17-27
2020-09-13Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens82.0%6-38
2020-09-13Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints73.4%23-34
2020-09-13Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars53.0%20-27
2020-09-13Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Football Team36.6%17-27
2020-09-13Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Rams61.5%17-20
2020-09-13Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots79.2%11-21
2020-09-13Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons57.5%38-25
2020-09-13Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings57.7%43-34
2020-09-13Las Vegas RaidersatCarolina Panthers56.5%34-30
2020-09-13Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers78.6%24-20
2020-09-14Tennessee TitansatDenver Broncos44.5%16-14
2020-09-14Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants42.1%26-16
2020-09-17Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns67.2%30-35
2020-09-20San Francisco 49ersatNew York Jets40.4%31-13
2020-09-20New York GiantsatChicago Bears79.1%13-17
2020-09-20Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins41.9%31-28
2020-09-20Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelers65.4%21-26
2020-09-20Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers70.6%17-31
2020-09-20Washington Football TeamatArizona Cardinals68.6%15-30
2020-09-20Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Chargers32.3%23-20
2020-09-20Minnesota VikingsatIndianapolis Colts47.8%11-28
2020-09-20Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys61.8%39-40
2020-09-20Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles50.5%37-19
2020-09-20Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans77.6%30-33
2020-09-20Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers83.6%21-42
2020-09-20New England PatriotsatSeattle Seahawks57.5%30-35
2020-09-20Baltimore RavensatHouston Texans40.3%33-16
2020-09-21New Orleans SaintsatLas Vegas Raiders35.8%24-34
2020-09-24Miami DolphinsatJacksonville Jaguars67.1%31-13
2020-09-27San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants27.5%36-9
2020-09-27Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons52.8%30-26
2020-09-27Cincinnati BengalsatPhiladelphia Eagles73.1%23-23
2020-09-27Los Angeles RamsatBuffalo Bills52.1%32-35
2020-09-27Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDenver Broncos55.4%28-10
2020-09-27Washington Football TeamatCleveland Browns66.8%20-34
2020-09-27Detroit LionsatArizona Cardinals72.7%26-23
2020-09-27Carolina PanthersatLos Angeles Chargers71.0%21-16
2020-09-27New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts69.0%7-36
2020-09-27Dallas CowboysatSeattle Seahawks68.0%31-38
2020-09-27Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints55.2%37-30
2020-09-27Las Vegas RaidersatNew England Patriots70.6%20-36
2020-09-27Houston TexansatPittsburgh Steelers65.9%21-28
2020-09-27Tennessee TitansatMinnesota Vikings44.9%31-30
2020-09-28Kansas City ChiefsatBaltimore Ravens57.5%34-20
2020-10-01Denver BroncosatNew York Jets53.4%37-28
2020-10-04Indianapolis ColtsatChicago Bears65.6%19-11
2020-10-04Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals52.9%25-33
2020-10-04Buffalo BillsatLas Vegas Raiders48.0%30-23
2020-10-04Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys66.9%49-38
2020-10-04Los Angeles ChargersatTampa Bay Buccaneers70.6%31-38
2020-10-04Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers51.6%21-31
2020-10-04Baltimore RavensatWashington Football Team23.1%31-17
2020-10-04Seattle SeahawksatMiami Dolphins35.3%31-23
2020-10-04New York GiantsatLos Angeles Rams84.3%9-17
2020-10-04New Orleans SaintsatDetroit Lions36.4%35-29
2020-10-04Minnesota VikingsatHouston Texans55.4%31-23
2020-10-04Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers78.1%25-20
2020-10-05New England PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs75.0%10-26
2020-10-05Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers78.6%16-30
2020-10-08Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears57.1%19-20
2020-10-11Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens87.0%3-27
2020-10-11Indianapolis ColtsatCleveland Browns52.0%23-32
2020-10-11Arizona CardinalsatNew York Jets49.7%30-10
2020-10-11Las Vegas RaidersatKansas City Chiefsshock87.8%40-32
2020-10-11Los Angeles RamsatWashington Football Team28.4%30-10
2020-10-11New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys76.2%34-37
2020-10-11Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers68.0%29-38
2020-10-11Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons64.1%23-16
2020-10-11Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans67.9%14-30
2020-10-11Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks70.7%26-27
2020-10-11Miami DolphinsatSan Francisco 49ers78.9%43-17
2020-10-12Los Angeles ChargersatNew Orleans Saints76.9%27-30
2020-10-13Buffalo BillsatTennessee Titans65.9%16-42
2020-10-18Chicago BearsatCarolina Panthers48.7%23-16
2020-10-18Cincinnati BengalsatIndianapolis Colts76.8%27-31
2020-10-18Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots73.5%18-12
2020-10-18Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers66.7%7-38
2020-10-18Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers43.2%10-38
2020-10-18Washington Football TeamatNew York Giants58.8%19-20
2020-10-18New York JetsatMiami Dolphins75.8%0-24
2020-10-18Baltimore RavensatPhiladelphia Eagles33.8%30-28
2020-10-18Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings70.4%40-23
2020-10-18Detroit LionsatJacksonville Jaguars56.7%34-16
2020-10-18Houston TexansatTennessee Titans79.4%36-42
2020-10-18Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers49.2%16-24
2020-10-19Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills40.1%26-17
2020-10-19Arizona CardinalsatDallas Cowboys61.0%38-10
2020-10-22New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles75.3%21-22
2020-10-25San Francisco 49ersatNew England Patriots59.0%33-6
2020-10-25Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals42.1%37-34
2020-10-25Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets31.3%18-10
2020-10-25Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos30.8%43-16
2020-10-25Tampa Bay BuccaneersatLas Vegas Raiders47.7%45-20
2020-10-25Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals43.7%34-37
2020-10-25Jacksonville JaguarsatLos Angeles Chargers71.1%29-39
2020-10-25Dallas CowboysatWashington Football Team43.7%3-25
2020-10-25Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons67.5%23-22
2020-10-25Green Bay PackersatHouston Texans38.3%35-20
2020-10-25Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints76.8%24-27
2020-10-25Pittsburgh SteelersatTennessee Titans66.8%27-24
2020-10-26Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams61.8%10-24
2020-10-29Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers53.6%25-17
2020-11-01San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks61.8%27-37
2020-11-01New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears51.4%26-23
2020-11-01Tennessee TitansatCincinnati Bengals23.6%20-31
2020-11-01New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills64.4%21-24
2020-11-01Los Angeles ChargersatDenver Broncos64.0%30-31
2020-11-01Las Vegas RaidersatCleveland Browns64.2%16-6
2020-11-01New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs93.7%9-35
2020-11-01Indianapolis ColtsatDetroit Lions45.8%41-21
2020-11-01Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles68.1%9-23
2020-11-01Los Angeles RamsatMiami Dolphins44.7%17-28
2020-11-01Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers77.4%28-22
2020-11-01Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens66.5%28-24
2020-11-02Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Giants23.4%25-23
2020-11-05Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers55.2%34-17
2020-11-08Chicago BearsatTennessee Titans67.9%17-24
2020-11-08Seattle SeahawksatBuffalo Bills49.0%34-44
2020-11-08Denver BroncosatAtlanta Falcons61.7%27-34
2020-11-08New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers60.5%38-3
2020-11-08Miami DolphinsatArizona Cardinals60.7%34-31
2020-11-08Las Vegas RaidersatLos Angeles Chargers50.5%31-26
2020-11-08Carolina PanthersatKansas City Chiefs89.8%31-33
2020-11-08Baltimore RavensatIndianapolis Colts46.8%24-10
2020-11-08New York GiantsatWashington Football Team64.1%23-20
2020-11-08Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys26.3%24-19
2020-11-08Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars42.3%27-25
2020-11-08Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings73.4%20-34
2020-11-09New England PatriotsatNew York Jets33.6%30-27
2020-11-12Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans68.4%34-17
2020-11-15San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints73.4%13-27
2020-11-15Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers85.3%10-36
2020-11-15Buffalo BillsatArizona Cardinals50.0%30-32
2020-11-15Denver BroncosatLas Vegas Raiders66.1%12-37
2020-11-15Houston TexansatCleveland Browns61.7%7-10
2020-11-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers36.8%46-23
2020-11-15Los Angeles ChargersatMiami Dolphins74.2%21-29
2020-11-15Washington Football TeamatDetroit Lions65.0%27-30
2020-11-15Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants39.8%17-27
2020-11-15Jacksonville JaguarsatGreen Bay Packers90.0%20-24
2020-11-15Baltimore RavensatNew England Patriots36.3%17-23
2020-11-15Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams54.4%16-23
2020-11-16Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears56.2%19-13
2020-11-19Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks67.0%21-28
2020-11-22Cincinnati BengalsatWashington Football Team51.8%9-20
2020-11-22Miami DolphinsatDenver Broncos44.6%13-20
2020-11-22Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns62.3%17-22
2020-11-22New York JetsatLos Angeles Chargers72.6%28-34
2020-11-22Kansas City ChiefsatLas Vegas Raiders33.0%35-31
2020-11-22Green Bay PackersatIndianapolis Colts50.4%31-34
2020-11-22Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikingsshock79.7%31-28
2020-11-22Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints77.4%9-24
2020-11-22Pittsburgh SteelersatJacksonville Jaguars17.2%27-3
2020-11-22Detroit LionsatCarolina Panthers57.2%0-20
2020-11-22New England PatriotsatHouston Texans46.7%20-27
2020-11-22Tennessee TitansatBaltimore Ravens70.3%30-24
2020-11-23Los Angeles RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers60.2%27-24
2020-11-26Washington Football TeamatDallas Cowboys64.8%41-16
2020-11-26Houston TexansatDetroit Lions46.6%41-25
2020-11-29San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams69.3%23-20
2020-11-29Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers75.9%25-41
2020-11-29New York GiantsatCincinnati Bengals57.6%19-17
2020-11-29Los Angeles ChargersatBuffalo Bills77.3%17-27
2020-11-29New Orleans SaintsatDenver Broncos30.7%31-3
2020-11-29Cleveland BrownsatJacksonville Jaguars32.6%27-25
2020-11-29Kansas City ChiefsatTampa Bay Buccaneers36.4%27-24
2020-11-29Arizona CardinalsatNew England Patriots59.0%17-20
2020-11-29Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts59.2%45-26
2020-11-29Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets27.9%20-3
2020-11-29Las Vegas RaidersatAtlanta Falcons55.8%6-43
2020-11-29Carolina PanthersatMinnesota Vikings73.8%27-28
2020-11-30Seattle SeahawksatPhiladelphia Eagles38.2%23-17
2020-12-02Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers65.8%14-19
2020-12-06Detroit LionsatChicago Bears74.8%34-30
2020-12-06Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins80.7%7-19
2020-12-06Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs88.9%16-22
2020-12-06Cleveland BrownsatTennessee Titans74.6%41-35
2020-12-06Los Angeles RamsatArizona Cardinals47.6%38-28
2020-12-06New England PatriotsatLos Angeles Chargers43.4%45-0
2020-12-06Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans51.0%26-20
2020-12-06Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers82.3%16-30
2020-12-06New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons36.8%21-16
2020-12-06New York GiantsatSeattle Seahawksshock83.3%17-12
2020-12-06Jacksonville JaguarsatMinnesota Vikings84.9%24-27
2020-12-06Las Vegas RaidersatNew York Jets29.4%31-28
2020-12-07Washington Football TeamatPittsburgh Steelersshock86.9%23-17
2020-12-07Buffalo BillsatSan Francisco 49ers54.9%34-24
2020-12-08Dallas CowboysatBaltimore Ravens85.2%17-34
2020-12-10New England PatriotsatLos Angeles Rams66.2%3-24
2020-12-13Houston TexansatChicago Bears55.9%7-36
2020-12-13Dallas CowboysatCincinnati Bengals58.4%30-7
2020-12-13Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills55.1%15-26
2020-12-13Denver BroncosatCarolina Panthers54.2%32-27
2020-12-13Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers63.3%14-26
2020-12-13Arizona CardinalsatNew York Giants52.4%26-7
2020-12-13Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Chargers38.5%17-20
2020-12-13Kansas City ChiefsatMiami Dolphins31.4%33-27
2020-12-13Indianapolis ColtsatLas Vegas Raiders49.9%44-27
2020-12-13New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eagles22.1%21-24
2020-12-13Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars20.7%31-10
2020-12-13New York JetsatSeattle Seahawks89.3%3-40
2020-12-13Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions24.0%31-24
2020-12-13Washington Football TeamatSan Francisco 49ers68.5%23-15
2020-12-14Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns48.5%47-42
2020-12-17Los Angeles ChargersatLas Vegas Raiders69.9%30-27
2020-12-19Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos36.6%48-19
2020-12-19Carolina PanthersatGreen Bay Packers86.7%16-24
2020-12-20San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys45.7%33-41
2020-12-20Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings64.6%33-27
2020-12-20Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants42.4%20-6
2020-12-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons48.1%31-27
2020-12-20Philadelphia EaglesatArizona Cardinals67.5%26-33
2020-12-20Kansas City ChiefsatNew Orleans Saints48.1%32-29
2020-12-20Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts78.1%20-27
2020-12-20Seattle SeahawksatWashington Football Team44.9%20-15
2020-12-20New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins59.9%12-22
2020-12-20Jacksonville JaguarsatBaltimore Ravens91.3%14-40
2020-12-20New York JetsatLos Angeles Ramsshock92.0%23-20
2020-12-20Detroit LionsatTennessee Titans84.9%25-46
2020-12-21Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals20.4%17-27
2020-12-25Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints80.3%33-52
2020-12-26San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals67.1%20-12
2020-12-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions26.9%47-7
2020-12-26Miami DolphinsatLas Vegas Raiders44.8%26-25
2020-12-27Chicago BearsatJacksonville Jaguars28.2%41-17
2020-12-27Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Texans69.9%37-31
2020-12-27Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargers55.5%16-19
2020-12-27Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jets26.6%16-23
2020-12-27Atlanta FalconsatKansas City Chiefs88.2%14-17
2020-12-27Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers53.8%24-28
2020-12-27Carolina PanthersatWashington Football Team69.8%20-13
2020-12-27Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys56.7%17-37
2020-12-27New York GiantsatBaltimore Ravens86.4%13-27
2020-12-27Tennessee TitansatGreen Bay Packers65.3%14-40
2020-12-27Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks59.9%9-20
2020-12-28Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots40.0%38-9
2021-01-03Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears37.0%35-16
2021-01-03Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals25.0%38-3
2021-01-03Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills73.7%26-56
2021-01-03Las Vegas RaidersatDenver Broncos56.6%32-31
2021-01-03Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Brownsstarters rested48.1%22-24
2021-01-03Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers75.5%27-44
2021-01-03Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Ramsstarters rested70.1%7-18
2021-01-03Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefsstarters rested91.6%38-21
2021-01-03Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts90.8%14-28
2021-01-03Washington Football TeamatPhiladelphia Eaglesstarters rested55.6%20-14
2021-01-03Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants48.8%19-23
2021-01-03New York JetsatNew England Patriots78.3%14-28
2021-01-03Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions39.5%37-35
2021-01-03New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers24.1%33-7
2021-01-03Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans33.4%41-38
2021-01-03Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers41.8%26-23
2021-01-09Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills71.7%24-27
2021-01-09Tampa Bay BuccaneersatWashington Football Team34.9%31-23
2021-01-09Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks64.8%30-20
2021-01-10Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints81.8%9-21
2021-01-10Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers66.6%48-37
2021-01-10Baltimore RavensatTennessee Titans51.4%20-13
2021-01-16Baltimore RavensatBuffalo Bills62.6%3-17
2021-01-16Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers69.7%18-32
2021-01-17Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs78.6%17-22
2021-01-17Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints67.1%30-20
2021-01-24Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs59.2%24-38
2021-01-24Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers64.2%31-26
2021-02-07Kansas City ChiefsvsTampa Bay Buccaneers44.6%9-31

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.