The expectation ledger

The 2019 season, against expectation

Every game of 2019scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 20182020→
Games
267
Model Brier
0.2237
Market Brier
0.2129
Longest odds beaten
8.7%
Miami Dolphins

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2019.

1
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
13
exp 8.66
2
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
13
exp 9.01
3
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
14
exp 10.50
4
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
13
exp 10.67
5
Houston Texans
Houston
10
exp 8.20
6
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
12
exp 10.34
7
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
10
exp 8.37
8
New York Jets
New York
7
exp 5.59
9
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
11
exp 9.59
10
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
7
exp 6.25
11
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
5.5
exp 4.77
12
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
9
exp 8.37
Show all 30 rows
13
Denver Broncos
Denver
7
exp 6.41
14
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
10
exp 9.63
15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
7
exp 7.00
16
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
7
exp 7.01
17
New England Patriots
Boston
12
exp 12.13
18
Miami Dolphins
Miami
5
exp 5.33
19
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
6
exp 6.57
20
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
9
exp 9.58
21
Chicago Bears
Chicago
8
exp 8.99
22
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
6
exp 7.12
23
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
8
exp 9.25
24
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
7
exp 8.85
25
New York Giants
New York
4
exp 5.89
26
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
3
exp 5.22
27
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
5
exp 7.69
28
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
2
exp 4.94
29
Detroit Lions
Detroit
3.5
exp 6.75
30
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles
5
exp 8.58

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2019 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2019-09-05Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears75.8%10-3
2019-09-08San Francisco 49ersatTampa Bay Buccaneers62.3%31-17
2019-09-08Cincinnati BengalsatSeattle Seahawks76.2%20-21
2019-09-08Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets50.2%17-16
2019-09-08Tennessee TitansatCleveland Browns50.3%43-13
2019-09-08Detroit LionsatArizona Cardinals44.0%27-27
2019-09-08Indianapolis ColtsatLos Angeles Chargers62.6%24-30
2019-09-08Kansas City ChiefsatJacksonville Jaguars38.4%40-26
2019-09-08Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles76.5%27-32
2019-09-08New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys72.6%17-35
2019-09-08Baltimore RavensatMiami Dolphins37.3%59-10
2019-09-08Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings61.7%12-28
2019-09-08Los Angeles RamsatCarolina Panthers48.0%30-27
2019-09-08Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots68.3%3-33
2019-09-09Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders53.1%16-24
2019-09-09Houston TexansatNew Orleans Saints71.6%28-30
2019-09-12Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers71.7%20-14
2019-09-15San Francisco 49ersatCincinnati Bengals54.7%41-17
2019-09-15Chicago BearsatDenver Broncos41.4%16-14
2019-09-15Buffalo BillsatNew York Giants55.4%28-14
2019-09-15Arizona CardinalsatBaltimore Ravens83.2%17-23
2019-09-15Los Angeles ChargersatDetroit Lions43.4%10-13
2019-09-15Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders32.0%28-10
2019-09-15Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans60.1%19-17
2019-09-15Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins41.0%31-21
2019-09-15New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins23.1%43-0
2019-09-15Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons46.4%20-24
2019-09-15Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans69.0%12-13
2019-09-15Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers49.4%16-21
2019-09-15New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams58.5%9-27
2019-09-15Seattle SeahawksatPittsburgh Steelers56.9%28-26
2019-09-16Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jets53.1%23-3
2019-09-19Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars43.8%7-20
2019-09-22Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills71.7%17-21
2019-09-22Denver BroncosatGreen Bay Packers70.7%16-27
2019-09-22Los Angeles RamsatCleveland Browns33.9%20-13
2019-09-22New York GiantsatTampa Bay Buccaneers65.0%32-31
2019-09-22Carolina PanthersatArizona Cardinals45.5%38-20
2019-09-22Houston TexansatLos Angeles Chargers68.5%27-20
2019-09-22Baltimore RavensatKansas City Chiefs64.1%28-33
2019-09-22Atlanta FalconsatIndianapolis Colts65.2%24-27
2019-09-22Miami DolphinsatDallas Cowboys82.9%6-31
2019-09-22Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles68.1%27-24
2019-09-22New York JetsatNew England Patriots90.8%14-30
2019-09-22Oakland RaidersatMinnesota Vikings75.8%14-34
2019-09-22New Orleans SaintsatSeattle Seahawks57.6%33-27
2019-09-22Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Francisco 49ers52.8%20-24
2019-09-23Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins38.2%31-15
2019-09-26Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers55.0%34-27
2019-09-29Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears63.2%6-16
2019-09-29New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills33.1%16-10
2019-09-29Jacksonville JaguarsatDenver Broncos51.4%26-24
2019-09-29Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens77.7%40-25
2019-09-29Tampa Bay BuccaneersatLos Angeles Ramsshock83.6%55-40
2019-09-29Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals30.9%27-10
2019-09-29Los Angeles ChargersatMiami Dolphins32.5%30-10
2019-09-29Kansas City ChiefsatDetroit Lions41.1%34-30
2019-09-29Oakland RaidersatIndianapolis Colts80.0%31-24
2019-09-29Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants61.1%3-24
2019-09-29Dallas CowboysatNew Orleans Saints62.7%10-12
2019-09-29Tennessee TitansatAtlanta Falcons59.0%24-10
2019-09-29Carolina PanthersatHouston Texans64.9%16-10
2019-09-30Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers76.8%3-27
2019-10-03Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks56.4%29-30
2019-10-06Chicago BearsatOakland Raiders27.4%21-24
2019-10-06Arizona CardinalsatCincinnati Bengals63.5%26-23
2019-10-06Buffalo BillsatTennessee Titans67.3%14-7
2019-10-06Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargers80.1%20-13
2019-10-06Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints76.5%24-31
2019-10-06Indianapolis ColtsatKansas City Chiefs75.7%19-13
2019-10-06New England PatriotsatWashington Redskins18.4%33-7
2019-10-06Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys70.3%34-24
2019-10-06New York JetsatPhiladelphia Eagles84.8%6-31
2019-10-06Atlanta FalconsatHouston Texans65.0%32-53
2019-10-06Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants43.9%28-10
2019-10-06Jacksonville JaguarsatCarolina Panthers66.8%27-34
2019-10-06Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers58.3%26-23
2019-10-07Cleveland BrownsatSan Francisco 49ers62.0%3-31
2019-10-10New York GiantsatNew England Patriots89.1%14-35
2019-10-13San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams66.8%20-7
2019-10-13Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens83.1%17-23
2019-10-13Tennessee TitansatDenver Broncos47.8%0-16
2019-10-13Seattle SeahawksatCleveland Browns42.5%32-28
2019-10-13Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers40.4%37-26
2019-10-13Atlanta FalconsatArizona Cardinals45.1%33-34
2019-10-13Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Chargers61.1%24-17
2019-10-13Houston TexansatKansas City Chiefs71.5%31-24
2019-10-13Washington RedskinsatMiami Dolphins56.9%17-16
2019-10-13Dallas CowboysatNew York Jets29.7%22-24
2019-10-13Philadelphia EaglesatMinnesota Vikings56.4%20-38
2019-10-13New Orleans SaintsatJacksonville Jaguars34.9%13-6
2019-10-14Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers62.3%22-23
2019-10-17Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos39.6%30-6
2019-10-20San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins31.1%9-0
2019-10-20New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears49.6%36-25
2019-10-20Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals44.6%27-17
2019-10-20Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills80.1%21-31
2019-10-20Arizona CardinalsatNew York Giants64.2%27-21
2019-10-20Los Angeles ChargersatTennessee Titans55.7%20-23
2019-10-20Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts58.5%23-30
2019-10-20Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys55.3%10-37
2019-10-20Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons44.2%37-10
2019-10-20Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions47.6%42-30
2019-10-20Oakland RaidersatGreen Bay Packers70.4%24-42
2019-10-20Baltimore RavensatSeattle Seahawks63.0%30-16
2019-10-21New England PatriotsatNew York Jets15.3%33-0
2019-10-24Washington RedskinsatMinnesota Vikings86.6%9-19
2019-10-27Los Angeles ChargersatChicago Bears67.0%17-16
2019-10-27Cincinnati BengalsatLos Angeles Rams81.6%10-24
2019-10-27Philadelphia EaglesatBuffalo Bills58.0%31-13
2019-10-27Denver BroncosatIndianapolis Colts76.9%13-15
2019-10-27Cleveland BrownsatNew England Patriots87.3%13-27
2019-10-27Tampa Bay BuccaneersatTennessee Titans64.7%23-27
2019-10-27Arizona CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints88.1%9-31
2019-10-27Green Bay PackersatKansas City Chiefs68.4%31-24
2019-10-27Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons39.2%27-20
2019-10-27New York GiantsatDetroit Lions73.3%26-31
2019-10-27New York JetsatJacksonville Jaguars75.2%15-29
2019-10-27Oakland RaidersatHouston Texans73.9%24-27
2019-10-27Carolina PanthersatSan Francisco 49ers62.3%13-51
2019-10-28Miami DolphinsatPittsburgh Steelers83.9%14-27
2019-10-31San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals28.1%28-25
2019-11-03Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles61.9%14-22
2019-11-03Washington RedskinsatBuffalo Bills76.2%9-24
2019-11-03Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos57.6%19-24
2019-11-03Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSeattle Seahawks75.5%34-40
2019-11-03Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Chargers47.8%11-26
2019-11-03Minnesota VikingsatKansas City Chiefs56.0%23-26
2019-11-03Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers54.8%24-26
2019-11-03New York JetsatMiami Dolphins58.1%18-26
2019-11-03Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars38.6%26-3
2019-11-03Detroit LionsatOakland Raiders50.6%24-31
2019-11-03Tennessee TitansatCarolina Panthers63.2%20-30
2019-11-03New England PatriotsatBaltimore Ravens41.6%20-37
2019-11-04Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants32.0%37-18
2019-11-07Los Angeles ChargersatOakland Raiders47.3%24-26
2019-11-10Detroit LionsatChicago Bears66.9%13-20
2019-11-10Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals18.4%49-13
2019-11-10Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns49.6%16-19
2019-11-10Arizona CardinalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers67.3%27-30
2019-11-10Kansas City ChiefsatTennessee Titans42.4%32-35
2019-11-10Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Coltsshock85.3%16-12
2019-11-10Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys55.2%28-24
2019-11-10Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saintsshock87.7%26-9
2019-11-10New York GiantsatNew York Jets54.1%27-34
2019-11-10Carolina PanthersatGreen Bay Packers60.0%16-24
2019-11-10Los Angeles RamsatPittsburgh Steelers55.7%12-17
2019-11-11Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers63.9%27-24
2019-11-14Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns39.8%7-21
2019-11-17Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams63.7%7-17
2019-11-17Cincinnati BengalsatOakland Raiders78.6%10-17
2019-11-17Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins42.8%37-20
2019-11-17Denver BroncosatMinnesota Vikings80.1%23-27
2019-11-17New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers34.9%34-17
2019-11-17Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts70.8%13-33
2019-11-17New York JetsatWashington Redskins60.4%34-17
2019-11-17Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions44.8%35-27
2019-11-17New England PatriotsatPhiladelphia Eagles43.4%17-10
2019-11-17Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers68.9%29-3
2019-11-17Houston TexansatBaltimore Ravens67.9%7-41
2019-11-17Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers84.7%26-36
2019-11-18Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Chargers40.5%24-17
2019-11-21Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans59.4%17-20
2019-11-24New York GiantsatChicago Bears82.0%14-19
2019-11-24Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals25.3%16-10
2019-11-24Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills68.0%3-20
2019-11-24Miami DolphinsatCleveland Browns75.8%24-41
2019-11-24Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons70.4%35-22
2019-11-24Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins39.6%16-19
2019-11-24Dallas CowboysatNew England Patriots75.5%9-13
2019-11-24Seattle SeahawksatPhiladelphia Eagles53.7%17-9
2019-11-24Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans68.0%20-42
2019-11-24Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets44.0%3-34
2019-11-24Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints77.6%31-34
2019-11-24Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers63.5%8-37
2019-11-25Baltimore RavensatLos Angeles Rams47.9%45-6
2019-11-28Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions43.7%24-20
2019-11-28Buffalo BillsatDallas Cowboys65.5%26-15
2019-11-28New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons35.0%26-18
2019-12-01San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Ravens69.3%17-20
2019-12-01New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals42.3%6-22
2019-12-01Los Angeles ChargersatDenver Broncos47.5%20-23
2019-12-01Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers67.9%13-20
2019-12-01Tampa Bay BuccaneersatJacksonville Jaguars52.9%28-11
2019-12-01Los Angeles RamsatArizona Cardinals32.0%34-7
2019-12-01Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs80.0%9-40
2019-12-01Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts62.8%31-17
2019-12-01Washington RedskinsatCarolina Panthers78.8%29-21
2019-12-01Philadelphia EaglesatMiami Dolphins30.6%31-37
2019-12-01Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants28.0%31-13
2019-12-01New England PatriotsatHouston Texans38.9%22-28
2019-12-02Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks58.6%30-37
2019-12-05Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears60.2%24-31
2019-12-08San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints64.1%48-46
2019-12-08Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns78.5%19-27
2019-12-08Baltimore RavensatBuffalo Bills37.4%24-17
2019-12-08Denver BroncosatHouston Texans78.4%38-24
2019-12-08Indianapolis ColtsatTampa Bay Buccaneers56.5%35-38
2019-12-08Pittsburgh SteelersatArizona Cardinals28.1%23-17
2019-12-08Los Angeles ChargersatJacksonville Jaguars44.5%45-10
2019-12-08Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots68.8%23-16
2019-12-08Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packers82.9%15-20
2019-12-08Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets60.6%21-22
2019-12-08Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons61.1%20-40
2019-12-08Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings82.6%7-20
2019-12-08Tennessee TitansatOakland Raiders39.3%42-21
2019-12-08Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams49.8%12-28
2019-12-09New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles82.5%17-23
2019-12-12New York JetsatBaltimore Ravens91.7%21-42
2019-12-15Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers60.7%13-21
2019-12-15New England PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals16.1%34-13
2019-12-15Buffalo BillsatPittsburgh Steelers63.9%17-10
2019-12-15Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs78.8%3-23
2019-12-15Cleveland BrownsatArizona Cardinals37.1%24-38
2019-12-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions43.8%38-17
2019-12-15Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Chargers45.3%39-10
2019-12-15Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins36.0%37-27
2019-12-15Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboys21-44
2019-12-15Miami DolphinsatNew York Giants51.4%20-36
2019-12-15Jacksonville JaguarsatOakland Raiders64.3%20-16
2019-12-15Seattle SeahawksatCarolina Panthers32.1%30-24
2019-12-15Houston TexansatTennessee Titans63.7%24-21
2019-12-15Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers78.3%29-22
2019-12-16Indianapolis ColtsatNew Orleans Saints76.4%7-34
2019-12-21Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots71.8%17-24
2019-12-21Houston TexansatTampa Bay Buccaneers54.3%23-20
2019-12-21Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers63.2%31-34
2019-12-22Kansas City ChiefsatChicago Bears42.4%26-3
2019-12-22Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins62.9%35-38
2019-12-22Detroit LionsatDenver Broncosstarters rested72.3%17-27
2019-12-22Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns22.3%31-15
2019-12-22Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawksshock86.7%27-13
2019-12-22Oakland RaidersatLos Angeles Chargers74.3%24-17
2019-12-22Carolina PanthersatIndianapolis Colts69.9%6-38
2019-12-22New York GiantsatWashington Redskinsstarters rested60.2%41-35
2019-12-22Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles56.1%9-17
2019-12-22Jacksonville JaguarsatAtlanta Falcons76.0%12-24
2019-12-22Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jetsstarters rested34.1%10-16
2019-12-22New Orleans SaintsatTennessee Titans46.1%38-28
2019-12-23Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings67.8%23-10
2019-12-29San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks53.7%26-21
2019-12-29Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikingsstarters rested71.7%21-19
2019-12-29Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals38.2%23-33
2019-12-29New York JetsatBuffalo Bills78.8%13-6
2019-12-29Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncosstarters rested69.7%15-16
2019-12-29Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers58.2%28-22
2019-12-29Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams76.5%24-31
2019-12-29Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefs84.4%21-31
2019-12-29Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars39.3%20-38
2019-12-29Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys84.2%16-47
2019-12-29Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriotsshock91.3%27-24
2019-12-29Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants31.5%34-17
2019-12-29Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions24.0%23-20
2019-12-29New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers21.4%42-10
2019-12-29Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravensstarters rested83.8%10-28
2019-12-29Tennessee TitansatHouston Texansstarters rested64.8%35-14
2020-01-04Buffalo BillsatHouston Texans61.6%19-22
2020-01-04Tennessee TitansatNew England Patriots67.9%20-13
2020-01-05Seattle SeahawksatPhiladelphia Eagles61.6%17-9
2020-01-05Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints71.6%26-20
2020-01-11Tennessee TitansatBaltimore Ravens76.3%28-12
2020-01-11Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers59.6%10-27
2020-01-12Houston TexansatKansas City Chiefs76.7%31-51
2020-01-12Seattle SeahawksatGreen Bay Packers66.3%23-28
2020-01-19Tennessee TitansatKansas City Chiefs65.3%24-35
2020-01-19Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers60.4%20-37
2020-02-02San Francisco 49ersvsKansas City Chiefs57.1%20-31

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.