The expectation ledger

The 2018 season, against expectation

Every game of 2018scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 20172019→
Games
267
Model Brier
0.2214
Market Brier
0.2109
Longest odds beaten
20.2%
Denver Broncos

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2018.

1
Chicago Bears
Chicago
12
exp 8.57
2
Houston Texans
Houston
11
exp 7.66
3
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
7.5
exp 4.28
4
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
10
exp 7.12
5
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
13
exp 10.42
6
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
13
exp 10.64
7
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles
12
exp 9.76
8
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
10
exp 8.62
9
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
12
exp 10.82
10
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
10
exp 9.12
11
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
10
exp 9.24
12
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
9
exp 8.24
Show all 32 rows
13
Miami Dolphins
Miami
7
exp 7.26
14
New England Patriots
Boston
11
exp 11.26
15
New York Giants
New York
5
exp 5.30
16
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
9.5
exp 9.82
17
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
8.5
exp 9.04
18
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
7
exp 7.55
19
Denver Broncos
Denver
6
exp 6.89
20
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
6.5
exp 7.41
21
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
9
exp 9.99
22
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
6
exp 7.05
23
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
6
exp 7.18
24
Detroit Lions
Detroit
6
exp 7.18
25
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
4
exp 5.39
26
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
7
exp 8.44
27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
5
exp 6.65
28
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
7
exp 8.93
29
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
4
exp 6.05
30
New York Jets
New York
4
exp 6.47
31
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
5
exp 7.65
32
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
3
exp 5.99

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2018 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2018-09-06Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles65.5%12-18
2018-09-09San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings75.7%16-24
2018-09-09Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers63.0%23-24
2018-09-09Cincinnati BengalsatIndianapolis Colts49.6%34-23
2018-09-09Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Ravens63.7%3-47
2018-09-09Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos45.7%24-27
2018-09-09Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns21.1%21-21
2018-09-09Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints73.8%48-40
2018-09-09Washington RedskinsatArizona Cardinals60.8%24-6
2018-09-09Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Chargers55.6%38-28
2018-09-09Dallas CowboysatCarolina Panthers59.6%8-16
2018-09-09Tennessee TitansatMiami Dolphins52.7%20-27
2018-09-09Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Giants41.7%20-15
2018-09-09Houston TexansatNew England Patriots86.2%20-27
2018-09-10New York JetsatDetroit Lions71.1%48-17
2018-09-10Los Angeles RamsatOakland Raiders50.0%33-13
2018-09-13Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals50.4%23-34
2018-09-16Los Angeles ChargersatBuffalo Bills53.3%31-20
2018-09-16Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos63.5%19-20
2018-09-16Cleveland BrownsatNew Orleans Saints85.2%18-21
2018-09-16Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers37.4%21-27
2018-09-16Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams73.8%0-34
2018-09-16Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers57.7%42-37
2018-09-16Indianapolis ColtsatWashington Redskins75.0%21-9
2018-09-16New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys75.8%13-20
2018-09-16Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets61.5%20-12
2018-09-16Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons62.1%24-31
2018-09-16New England PatriotsatJacksonville Jaguars44.0%20-31
2018-09-16Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers40.0%29-29
2018-09-16Houston TexansatTennessee Titans70.2%17-20
2018-09-16Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers57.7%27-30
2018-09-17Seattle SeahawksatChicago Bears46.3%17-24
2018-09-20New York JetsatCleveland Browns38.0%17-21
2018-09-23San Francisco 49ersatKansas City Chiefs77.3%27-38
2018-09-23Chicago BearsatArizona Cardinals54.6%16-14
2018-09-23Cincinnati BengalsatCarolina Panthers63.1%21-31
2018-09-23Buffalo BillsatMinnesota Vikingsshock78.5%27-6
2018-09-23Denver BroncosatBaltimore Ravens68.1%14-27
2018-09-23Los Angeles ChargersatLos Angeles Rams63.7%23-35
2018-09-23Indianapolis ColtsatPhiladelphia Eagles82.9%16-20
2018-09-23Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins57.4%17-31
2018-09-23Dallas CowboysatSeattle Seahawks54.7%13-24
2018-09-23Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins68.2%20-28
2018-09-23New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons66.0%43-37
2018-09-23New York GiantsatHouston Texans58.8%27-22
2018-09-23Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars71.4%9-6
2018-09-23New England PatriotsatDetroit Lions35.5%10-26
2018-09-24Pittsburgh SteelersatTampa Bay Buccaneers54.2%30-27
2018-09-27Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams64.7%31-38
2018-09-30San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Chargers68.0%27-29
2018-09-30Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears53.4%10-48
2018-09-30Cincinnati BengalsatAtlanta Falcons68.4%37-36
2018-09-30Buffalo BillsatGreen Bay Packers52.7%0-22
2018-09-30Cleveland BrownsatOakland Raiders70.8%42-45
2018-09-30Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals43.1%20-17
2018-09-30Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts66.8%37-34
2018-09-30Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys62.0%24-26
2018-09-30Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots69.6%7-38
2018-09-30Philadelphia EaglesatTennessee Titans40.3%23-26
2018-09-30New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giants35.3%33-18
2018-09-30New York JetsatJacksonville Jaguars74.3%12-31
2018-09-30Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers63.1%26-14
2018-10-01Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos34.7%27-23
2018-10-04Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots82.9%24-38
2018-10-07Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals62.8%17-27
2018-10-07Tennessee TitansatBuffalo Bills52.3%12-13
2018-10-07Denver BroncosatNew York Jets56.3%16-34
2018-10-07Baltimore RavensatCleveland Brownsshock23.9%9-12
2018-10-07Oakland RaidersatLos Angeles Chargers73.2%10-26
2018-10-07Jacksonville JaguarsatKansas City Chiefs68.5%14-30
2018-10-07Dallas CowboysatHouston Texans39.0%16-19
2018-10-07Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles69.9%23-21
2018-10-07Atlanta FalconsatPittsburgh Steelers56.6%17-41
2018-10-07New York GiantsatCarolina Panthers80.2%31-33
2018-10-07Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions59.6%23-31
2018-10-07Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks49.5%33-31
2018-10-07Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers65.9%28-18
2018-10-08Washington RedskinsatNew Orleans Saints73.2%19-43
2018-10-11Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants29.2%34-13
2018-10-14Chicago BearsatMiami Dolphins54.5%28-31
2018-10-14Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals53.5%28-21
2018-10-14Buffalo BillsatHouston Texans47.9%13-20
2018-10-14Los Angeles RamsatDenver Broncos31.3%23-20
2018-10-14Los Angeles ChargersatCleveland Browns31.0%38-14
2018-10-14Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons66.9%29-34
2018-10-14Arizona CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings74.3%17-27
2018-10-14Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots53.6%40-43
2018-10-14Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets66.7%34-42
2018-10-14Carolina PanthersatWashington Redskins45.0%17-23
2018-10-14Jacksonville JaguarsatDallas Cowboys52.7%7-40
2018-10-14Seattle SeahawksatOakland Raiders33.4%27-3
2018-10-14Baltimore RavensatTennessee Titans52.5%21-0
2018-10-15San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers65.8%30-33
2018-10-18Denver BroncosatArizona Cardinals61.5%45-10
2018-10-21New England PatriotsatChicago Bears40.1%38-31
2018-10-21Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs75.7%10-45
2018-10-21Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts47.8%5-37
2018-10-21Cleveland BrownsatTampa Bay Buccaneers77.0%23-26
2018-10-21Tennessee TitansatLos Angeles Chargers61.7%19-20
2018-10-21Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins52.7%17-20
2018-10-21Detroit LionsatMiami Dolphins56.4%32-21
2018-10-21Carolina PanthersatPhiladelphia Eagles68.7%21-17
2018-10-21Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars71.9%20-7
2018-10-21Minnesota VikingsatNew York Jets44.0%37-17
2018-10-21New Orleans SaintsatBaltimore Ravens56.7%24-23
2018-10-21Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers29.5%39-10
2018-10-22New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons80.3%20-23
2018-10-25Miami DolphinsatHouston Texans60.0%23-42
2018-10-28San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals57.5%15-18
2018-10-28New York JetsatChicago Bears65.1%10-24
2018-10-28Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCincinnati Bengals62.0%34-37
2018-10-28Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs82.5%23-30
2018-10-28Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers87.8%18-33
2018-10-28Indianapolis ColtsatOakland Raiders55.7%42-28
2018-10-28Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants39.0%20-13
2018-10-28Philadelphia EaglesatJacksonville Jaguars33.5%24-18
2018-10-28Seattle SeahawksatDetroit Lions57.1%28-14
2018-10-28Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams79.3%27-29
2018-10-28Baltimore RavensatCarolina Panthers57.4%21-36
2018-10-28New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings55.4%30-20
2018-10-29New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills28.5%25-6
2018-11-01Oakland RaidersatSan Francisco 49ers62.4%3-34
2018-11-04Chicago BearsatBuffalo Bills46.2%41-9
2018-11-04Houston TexansatDenver Broncos54.1%19-17
2018-11-04Kansas City ChiefsatCleveland Browns16.0%37-21
2018-11-04Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers75.7%28-42
2018-11-04Los Angeles ChargersatSeattle Seahawks60.7%25-17
2018-11-04Atlanta FalconsatWashington Redskins54.9%38-14
2018-11-04New York JetsatMiami Dolphins61.6%6-13
2018-11-04Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings67.8%9-24
2018-11-04Green Bay PackersatNew England Patriots81.1%17-31
2018-11-04Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints59.0%35-45
2018-11-04Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens53.9%23-16
2018-11-05Tennessee TitansatDallas Cowboys65.9%28-14
2018-11-08Carolina PanthersatPittsburgh Steelers61.4%21-52
2018-11-11Detroit LionsatChicago Bears65.0%22-34
2018-11-11New Orleans SaintsatCincinnati Bengals36.3%51-14
2018-11-11Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets63.1%41-10
2018-11-11Atlanta FalconsatCleveland Brownsshock21.9%16-28
2018-11-11Washington RedskinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers54.4%16-3
2018-11-11Arizona CardinalsatKansas City Chiefs88.1%14-26
2018-11-11Los Angeles ChargersatOakland Raiders24.0%20-6
2018-11-11Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts56.2%26-29
2018-11-11Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles74.5%27-20
2018-11-11Miami DolphinsatGreen Bay Packers61.4%12-31
2018-11-11New England PatriotsatTennessee Titans37.3%10-34
2018-11-11Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams69.5%31-36
2018-11-12New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers66.9%27-23
2018-11-15Green Bay PackersatSeattle Seahawks66.8%24-27
2018-11-18Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears53.8%20-25
2018-11-18Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens67.5%21-24
2018-11-18Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargersshock79.8%23-22
2018-11-18Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Giants51.8%35-38
2018-11-18Oakland RaidersatArizona Cardinals67.9%23-21
2018-11-18Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts44.9%10-38
2018-11-18Houston TexansatWashington Redskins61.8%23-21
2018-11-18Dallas CowboysatAtlanta Falcons62.3%22-19
2018-11-18Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints74.0%7-48
2018-11-18Pittsburgh SteelersatJacksonville Jaguars32.0%20-16
2018-11-18Carolina PanthersatDetroit Lions42.9%19-20
2018-11-19Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Rams53.9%51-54
2018-11-22Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions47.2%23-16
2018-11-22Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys64.6%23-31
2018-11-22Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints80.7%17-31
2018-11-25San Francisco 49ersatTampa Bay Buccaneers63.0%9-27
2018-11-25Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals74.6%35-20
2018-11-25Jacksonville JaguarsatBuffalo Bills55.5%21-24
2018-11-25Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos30.1%17-24
2018-11-25Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Chargers84.3%10-45
2018-11-25Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts68.2%24-27
2018-11-25New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles79.8%22-25
2018-11-25New England PatriotsatNew York Jets23.2%27-13
2018-11-25Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings70.9%17-24
2018-11-25Seattle SeahawksatCarolina Panthers62.4%30-27
2018-11-25Oakland RaidersatBaltimore Ravens83.2%17-34
2018-11-26Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans58.2%17-34
2018-11-29New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys36.0%10-13
2018-12-02San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks82.8%16-43
2018-12-02Chicago BearsatNew York Giants31.3%27-30
2018-12-02Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals51.5%24-10
2018-12-02Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins57.5%17-21
2018-12-02Cleveland BrownsatHouston Texans76.6%13-29
2018-12-02Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers41.3%17-24
2018-12-02Arizona CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers72.8%20-17
2018-12-02Los Angeles ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers62.2%33-30
2018-12-02Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders17.2%40-33
2018-12-02Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars49.3%0-6
2018-12-02Baltimore RavensatAtlanta Falcons53.5%26-16
2018-12-02New York JetsatTennessee Titans77.7%22-26
2018-12-02Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions31.9%30-16
2018-12-02Minnesota VikingsatNew England Patriots67.4%10-24
2018-12-03Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles69.3%13-28
2018-12-06Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans66.0%9-30
2018-12-09Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears43.6%6-15
2018-12-09Cincinnati BengalsatLos Angeles Chargers84.4%21-26
2018-12-09New York JetsatBuffalo Bills69.7%27-23
2018-12-09Carolina PanthersatCleveland Browns38.0%20-26
2018-12-09New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers26.1%28-14
2018-12-09Detroit LionsatArizona Cardinals50.9%17-3
2018-12-09Baltimore RavensatKansas City Chiefs70.7%24-27
2018-12-09Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans67.8%24-21
2018-12-09New York GiantsatWashington Redskins68.6%40-16
2018-12-09Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys58.5%23-29
2018-12-09New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins28.5%33-34
2018-12-09Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers52.6%20-34
2018-12-09Pittsburgh SteelersatOakland Raidersshock21.6%21-24
2018-12-09Denver BroncosatSan Francisco 49ers37.1%14-20
2018-12-10Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks61.7%7-21
2018-12-13Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefs66.0%29-28
2018-12-15Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos69.2%17-16
2018-12-15Houston TexansatNew York Jets35.9%29-22
2018-12-16Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears74.0%17-24
2018-12-16Oakland RaidersatCincinnati Bengals65.6%16-30
2018-12-16Detroit LionsatBuffalo Bills48.5%13-14
2018-12-16Tampa Bay BuccaneersatBaltimore Ravens75.8%12-20
2018-12-16Arizona CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons73.5%14-40
2018-12-16Dallas CowboysatIndianapolis Colts46.8%0-23
2018-12-16Washington RedskinsatJacksonville Jaguars60.4%16-13
2018-12-16Miami DolphinsatMinnesota Vikings72.1%17-41
2018-12-16Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Rams69.8%30-23
2018-12-16Tennessee TitansatNew York Giants48.5%17-0
2018-12-16New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers50.9%10-17
2018-12-16Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers28.7%23-26
2018-12-17New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers30.5%12-9
2018-12-22Baltimore RavensatLos Angeles Chargers66.4%22-10
2018-12-22Washington RedskinsatTennessee Titans73.2%16-25
2018-12-23Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns60.2%18-26
2018-12-23Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots84.2%12-24
2018-12-23Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys74.6%20-27
2018-12-23Los Angeles RamsatArizona Cardinals23.0%31-9
2018-12-23Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks46.2%31-38
2018-12-23New York GiantsatIndianapolis Colts74.1%27-28
2018-12-23Jacksonville JaguarsatMiami Dolphins60.7%17-7
2018-12-23Houston TexansatPhiladelphia Eaglesstarters rested66.4%30-32
2018-12-23Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthersstarters rested61.5%24-10
2018-12-23Green Bay PackersatNew York Jets43.1%44-38
2018-12-23Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions45.4%27-9
2018-12-23Pittsburgh SteelersatNew Orleans Saints73.9%28-31
2018-12-23Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers31.7%14-9
2018-12-24Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders38.8%14-27
2018-12-30San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams85.1%32-48
2018-12-30Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings56.1%24-10
2018-12-30Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers82.7%13-16
2018-12-30Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills59.0%17-42
2018-12-30Los Angeles ChargersatDenver Broncos36.0%23-9
2018-12-30Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravensstarters rested81.2%24-26
2018-12-30Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers45.9%34-32
2018-12-30Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks87.7%24-27
2018-12-30Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs88.3%3-35
2018-12-30Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titansstarters rested62.2%33-17
2018-12-30Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskinsstarters rested35.0%24-0
2018-12-30Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants38.0%36-35
2018-12-30Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans70.9%3-20
2018-12-30New York JetsatNew England Patriots89.2%3-38
2018-12-30Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers64.8%31-0
2018-12-30Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saintsstarters rested87.0%33-14
2019-01-05Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans55.5%21-7
2019-01-05Seattle SeahawksatDallas Cowboys54.5%22-24
2019-01-06Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears61.4%16-15
2019-01-06Los Angeles ChargersatBaltimore Ravens59.8%23-17
2019-01-12Indianapolis ColtsatKansas City Chiefs65.7%13-31
2019-01-12Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Rams66.3%22-30
2019-01-13Los Angeles ChargersatNew England Patriots58.2%28-41
2019-01-13Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints64.1%14-20
2019-01-20New England PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs61.1%37-31
2019-01-20Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints63.9%26-23
2019-02-03Los Angeles RamsvsNew England Patriots52.8%3-13

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.