The expectation ledger

The 2017 season, against expectation

Every game of 2017scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
267
Model Brier
0.2173
Market Brier
0.2057
Longest odds beaten
19.3%
Miami Dolphins

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2017.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2017 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2017-09-07Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots69.0%42-27
2017-09-10Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears27.5%23-17
2017-09-10Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals62.6%20-0
2017-09-10New York JetsatBuffalo Bills63.7%12-21
2017-09-10Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns24.2%21-18
2017-09-10Arizona CardinalsatDetroit Lions54.1%23-35
2017-09-10Indianapolis ColtsatLos Angeles Rams42.9%9-46
2017-09-10Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins58.3%30-17
2017-09-10New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys64.5%3-19
2017-09-10Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans74.4%29-7
2017-09-10Seattle SeahawksatGreen Bay Packers61.4%9-17
2017-09-10Oakland RaidersatTennessee Titans49.3%26-16
2017-09-10Carolina PanthersatSan Francisco 49ers34.9%23-3
2017-09-11Los Angeles ChargersatDenver Broncos74.2%21-24
2017-09-11New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings59.2%19-29
2017-09-14Houston TexansatCincinnati Bengals62.7%13-9
2017-09-17San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks83.9%9-12
2017-09-17Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers75.6%7-29
2017-09-17Buffalo BillsatCarolina Panthers65.6%3-9
2017-09-17Dallas CowboysatDenver Broncos55.5%17-42
2017-09-17Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens82.2%10-24
2017-09-17Arizona CardinalsatIndianapolis Colts53.2%16-13
2017-09-17Miami DolphinsatLos Angeles Chargers48.1%19-17
2017-09-17Philadelphia EaglesatKansas City Chiefs73.4%20-27
2017-09-17Washington RedskinsatLos Angeles Rams54.8%27-20
2017-09-17Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons62.5%23-34
2017-09-17Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars58.8%37-16
2017-09-17New York JetsatOakland Raiders74.1%20-45
2017-09-17New England PatriotsatNew Orleans Saints35.7%36-20
2017-09-17Minnesota VikingsatPittsburgh Steelers70.7%9-26
2017-09-18Detroit LionsatNew York Giants57.5%24-10
2017-09-21Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers46.6%41-39
2017-09-24Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Bears24.5%17-23
2017-09-24Cincinnati BengalsatGreen Bay Packers75.4%24-27
2017-09-24Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills44.5%16-26
2017-09-24Cleveland BrownsatIndianapolis Colts76.0%28-31
2017-09-24Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings56.7%17-34
2017-09-24Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Chargers26.3%24-10
2017-09-24Oakland RaidersatWashington Redskins48.9%10-27
2017-09-24Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets45.1%6-20
2017-09-24New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles66.4%24-27
2017-09-24Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions46.5%30-26
2017-09-24Baltimore RavensatJacksonville Jaguars30.4%7-44
2017-09-24New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers72.1%34-13
2017-09-24Houston TexansatNew England Patriots81.6%33-36
2017-09-24Seattle SeahawksatTennessee Titans47.1%27-33
2017-09-25Dallas CowboysatArizona Cardinals54.8%28-17
2017-09-28Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers82.1%14-35
2017-10-01San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals80.5%15-18
2017-10-01Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns40.2%31-7
2017-10-01Buffalo BillsatAtlanta Falcons77.0%23-17
2017-10-01Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos62.6%10-16
2017-10-01New York GiantsatTampa Bay Buccaneers62.6%23-25
2017-10-01Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Chargers40.1%26-24
2017-10-01Indianapolis ColtsatSeattle Seahawks69.2%18-46
2017-10-01Los Angeles RamsatDallas Cowboysshock78.5%35-30
2017-10-01New Orleans SaintsatMiami Dolphins47.2%20-0
2017-10-01Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Jets59.3%20-23
2017-10-01Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings57.1%14-7
2017-10-01Carolina PanthersatNew England Patriotsshock78.4%33-30
2017-10-01Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens44.5%26-9
2017-10-01Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans55.5%14-57
2017-10-02Washington RedskinsatKansas City Chiefs77.7%20-29
2017-10-05New England PatriotsatTampa Bay Buccaneers38.9%19-14
2017-10-08San Francisco 49ersatIndianapolis Colts75.3%23-26
2017-10-08Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals48.8%16-20
2017-10-08New York JetsatCleveland Browns35.2%17-14
2017-10-08Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles65.2%7-34
2017-10-08Los Angeles ChargersatNew York Giants67.8%27-22
2017-10-08Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Texans33.3%42-34
2017-10-08Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys52.9%35-31
2017-10-08Tennessee TitansatMiami Dolphins59.1%10-16
2017-10-08Jacksonville JaguarsatPittsburgh Steelersshock79.9%30-9
2017-10-08Carolina PanthersatDetroit Lions63.3%27-24
2017-10-08Baltimore RavensatOakland Raiders67.9%30-17
2017-10-08Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams45.3%16-10
2017-10-09Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears42.3%20-17
2017-10-12Philadelphia EaglesatCarolina Panthers56.8%28-23
2017-10-15San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins82.8%24-26
2017-10-15Chicago BearsatBaltimore Ravens75.1%27-24
2017-10-15New York GiantsatDenver Broncos76.6%23-10
2017-10-15Cleveland BrownsatHouston Texans82.7%17-33
2017-10-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatArizona Cardinals58.4%33-38
2017-10-15Los Angeles ChargersatOakland Raiders67.7%17-16
2017-10-15Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs76.7%19-13
2017-10-15Miami DolphinsatAtlanta Falcons77.6%20-17
2017-10-15Los Angeles RamsatJacksonville Jaguars66.2%27-17
2017-10-15New England PatriotsatNew York Jets32.8%24-17
2017-10-15Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints57.8%38-52
2017-10-15Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings44.2%10-23
2017-10-16Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans58.8%22-36
2017-10-19Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders32.7%30-31
2017-10-22Carolina PanthersatChicago Bears39.4%3-17
2017-10-22Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers72.2%14-29
2017-10-22Tampa Bay BuccaneersatBuffalo Bills66.8%27-30
2017-10-22Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargers45.1%0-21
2017-10-22Tennessee TitansatCleveland Browns32.0%12-9
2017-10-22Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams46.8%0-33
2017-10-22Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts54.6%27-0
2017-10-22New York JetsatMiami Dolphins65.0%28-31
2017-10-22Atlanta FalconsatNew England Patriots68.5%7-23
2017-10-22Seattle SeahawksatNew York Giants45.9%24-7
2017-10-22New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers63.3%26-17
2017-10-22Baltimore RavensatMinnesota Vikings68.2%16-24
2017-10-22Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers27.4%40-10
2017-10-23Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles68.9%24-34
2017-10-26Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Ravens52.6%0-40
2017-10-29San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles90.1%10-33
2017-10-29Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints78.7%12-20
2017-10-29Indianapolis ColtsatCincinnati Bengals70.4%23-24
2017-10-29Oakland RaidersatBuffalo Bills66.3%14-34
2017-10-29Minnesota VikingsatCleveland Browns15.6%33-16
2017-10-29Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers54.6%17-3
2017-10-29Los Angeles ChargersatNew England Patriots83.8%13-21
2017-10-29Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins52.0%33-19
2017-10-29Atlanta FalconsatNew York Jets39.7%25-20
2017-10-29Pittsburgh SteelersatDetroit Lions47.7%20-15
2017-10-29Houston TexansatSeattle Seahawks72.7%38-41
2017-10-30Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs78.4%19-29
2017-11-02Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets41.5%21-34
2017-11-05Cincinnati BengalsatJacksonville Jaguars61.7%7-23
2017-11-05Denver BroncosatPhiladelphia Eagles74.7%23-51
2017-11-05Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints78.7%10-30
2017-11-05Kansas City ChiefsatDallas Cowboys47.5%17-28
2017-11-05Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans72.3%20-14
2017-11-05Washington RedskinsatSeattle Seahawks75.5%17-14
2017-11-05Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins60.1%27-24
2017-11-05Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers49.2%17-20
2017-11-05Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants50.9%51-17
2017-11-05Baltimore RavensatTennessee Titans56.3%20-23
2017-11-05Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers34.2%20-10
2017-11-06Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers66.0%30-17
2017-11-09Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals43.7%22-16
2017-11-12Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears44.7%23-16
2017-11-12Cincinnati BengalsatTennessee Titans63.2%20-24
2017-11-12New Orleans SaintsatBuffalo Bills47.5%47-10
2017-11-12New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos28.8%41-16
2017-11-12Cleveland BrownsatDetroit Lions88.5%24-38
2017-11-12New York JetsatTampa Bay Buccaneers53.3%10-15
2017-11-12Los Angeles ChargersatJacksonville Jaguars66.8%17-20
2017-11-12Pittsburgh SteelersatIndianapolis Colts30.8%20-17
2017-11-12Minnesota VikingsatWashington Redskins50.2%38-30
2017-11-12Dallas CowboysatAtlanta Falcons55.6%7-27
2017-11-12Houston TexansatLos Angeles Rams71.2%7-33
2017-11-12New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers37.6%21-31
2017-11-13Miami DolphinsatCarolina Panthers70.5%21-45
2017-11-16Tennessee TitansatPittsburgh Steelers75.6%17-40
2017-11-19Detroit LionsatChicago Bears38.1%27-24
2017-11-19Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos60.4%20-17
2017-11-19Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Chargers53.6%24-54
2017-11-19Jacksonville JaguarsatCleveland Browns22.8%19-7
2017-11-19Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMiami Dolphins59.0%30-20
2017-11-19Arizona CardinalsatHouston Texans56.6%21-31
2017-11-19Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Giants25.3%9-12
2017-11-19Washington RedskinsatNew Orleans Saints79.1%31-34
2017-11-19Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys53.2%37-9
2017-11-19Baltimore RavensatGreen Bay Packers66.5%23-0
2017-11-19New England PatriotsatOakland Raiders21.2%33-8
2017-11-19Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings61.8%7-24
2017-11-20Atlanta FalconsatSeattle Seahawks57.8%34-31
2017-11-23Los Angeles ChargersatDallas Cowboys67.7%28-6
2017-11-23New York GiantsatWashington Redskins67.6%10-20
2017-11-23Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions52.5%30-23
2017-11-26Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles87.5%3-31
2017-11-26Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals84.2%16-30
2017-11-26Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefsshock78.2%16-10
2017-11-26Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders63.8%14-21
2017-11-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons78.3%20-34
2017-11-26Jacksonville JaguarsatArizona Cardinals45.1%24-27
2017-11-26Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts48.4%20-16
2017-11-26Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots90.0%17-35
2017-11-26Carolina PanthersatNew York Jets43.3%35-27
2017-11-26Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers77.5%28-31
2017-11-26New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams44.6%20-26
2017-11-26Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers21.7%24-13
2017-11-27Houston TexansatBaltimore Ravens68.4%16-23
2017-11-30Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys61.4%14-38
2017-12-03San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears71.6%15-14
2017-12-03New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills27.3%23-3
2017-12-03Denver BroncosatMiami Dolphins56.5%9-35
2017-12-03Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Chargers89.0%10-19
2017-12-03Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers63.3%20-26
2017-12-03Los Angeles RamsatArizona Cardinals43.0%32-16
2017-12-03Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets37.5%31-38
2017-12-03Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars75.3%10-30
2017-12-03Philadelphia EaglesatSeattle Seahawks48.4%10-24
2017-12-03Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons60.6%14-9
2017-12-03New York GiantsatOakland Raiders71.1%17-24
2017-12-03Detroit LionsatBaltimore Ravens59.8%20-44
2017-12-03Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints65.6%21-31
2017-12-03Houston TexansatTennessee Titans66.2%13-24
2017-12-04Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals34.3%23-20
2017-12-07New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons55.6%17-20
2017-12-10San Francisco 49ersatHouston Texans75.9%26-16
2017-12-10Chicago BearsatCincinnati Bengals71.0%33-7
2017-12-10Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills72.2%7-13
2017-12-10New York JetsatDenver Broncos50.4%0-23
2017-12-10Green Bay PackersatCleveland Browns22.9%27-21
2017-12-10Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers49.7%24-21
2017-12-10Tennessee TitansatArizona Cardinals47.0%7-12
2017-12-10Washington RedskinsatLos Angeles Chargers68.6%13-30
2017-12-10Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs67.2%15-26
2017-12-10Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants39.0%30-10
2017-12-10Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Rams52.0%43-35
2017-12-10Seattle SeahawksatJacksonville Jaguars46.9%24-30
2017-12-10Minnesota VikingsatCarolina Panthers46.7%24-31
2017-12-10Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers71.2%38-39
2017-12-11New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphinsshock19.3%20-27
2017-12-14Denver BroncosatIndianapolis Colts51.0%25-13
2017-12-16Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions72.5%10-20
2017-12-16Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefs62.2%13-30
2017-12-17Cincinnati BengalsatMinnesota Vikings83.5%7-34
2017-12-17Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills61.9%16-24
2017-12-17Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns16.7%27-10
2017-12-17Arizona CardinalsatWashington Redskins58.8%15-20
2017-12-17Dallas CowboysatOakland Raiders49.6%20-17
2017-12-17Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants20.1%34-29
2017-12-17Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars79.0%7-45
2017-12-17New York JetsatNew Orleans Saints82.5%19-31
2017-12-17Green Bay PackersatCarolina Panthers69.2%24-31
2017-12-17New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers52.9%27-24
2017-12-17Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks63.7%42-7
2017-12-17Tennessee TitansatSan Francisco 49ers36.8%23-25
2017-12-18Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers31.9%24-21
2017-12-23Indianapolis ColtsatBaltimore Ravens84.4%16-23
2017-12-23Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers39.3%16-0
2017-12-24Cleveland BrownsatChicago Bears82.1%3-20
2017-12-24Detroit LionsatCincinnati Bengals40.0%17-26
2017-12-24Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots83.5%16-37
2017-12-24Denver BroncosatWashington Redskins60.2%11-27
2017-12-24Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers79.9%19-22
2017-12-24New York GiantsatArizona Cardinalsstarters rested69.8%0-23
2017-12-24Los Angeles ChargersatNew York Jets43.3%14-7
2017-12-24Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs76.4%13-29
2017-12-24Seattle SeahawksatDallas Cowboys60.6%21-12
2017-12-24Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints59.5%13-23
2017-12-24Los Angeles RamsatTennessee Titans40.2%27-23
2017-12-24Jacksonville JaguarsatSan Francisco 49ers29.3%33-44
2017-12-25Oakland RaidersatPhiladelphia Eaglesstarters rested82.5%10-19
2017-12-25Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Texans23.5%34-6
2017-12-31San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Ramsstarters rested85.2%34-13
2017-12-31Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings85.3%10-23
2017-12-31Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens77.1%31-27
2017-12-31Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins51.5%22-16
2017-12-31Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncosstarters rested34.8%27-24
2017-12-31Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelersstarters rested95.4%24-28
2017-12-31New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers26.9%24-31
2017-12-31Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks75.4%26-24
2017-12-31Oakland RaidersatLos Angeles Chargers70.5%10-30
2017-12-31Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts55.5%13-22
2017-12-31Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants38.6%10-18
2017-12-31Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eaglesstarters rested77.0%6-0
2017-12-31Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons61.3%10-22
2017-12-31Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans50.3%10-15
2017-12-31New York JetsatNew England Patriots90.7%6-26
2017-12-31Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions63.7%11-35
2018-01-06Tennessee TitansatKansas City Chiefs75.2%22-21
2018-01-06Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams49.4%26-13
2018-01-07Buffalo BillsatJacksonville Jaguars59.0%3-10
2018-01-07Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints64.7%26-31
2018-01-13Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles56.9%10-15
2018-01-13Tennessee TitansatNew England Patriots85.1%14-35
2018-01-14Jacksonville JaguarsatPittsburgh Steelers75.7%45-42
2018-01-14New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings63.5%24-29
2018-01-21Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles56.7%7-38
2018-01-21Jacksonville JaguarsatNew England Patriots81.3%20-24
2018-02-04New England PatriotsvsPhiladelphia Eagles41.6%33-41

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.