The expectation ledger

The 2016 season, against expectation

Every game of 2016scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 20152017→
Games
267
Model Brier
0.2168
Market Brier
0.2139
Longest odds beaten
14.8%
Tennessee Titans

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2016.

1
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
12
exp 7.99
2
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
13
exp 9.37
3
New England Patriots
Boston
14
exp 10.99
4
New York Giants
New York
11
exp 8.03
5
Miami Dolphins
Miami
10
exp 7.04
6
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
9
exp 6.08
7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
9
exp 6.30
8
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
11
exp 8.69
9
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
12
exp 10.69
10
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
11
exp 9.93
11
Detroit Lions
Detroit
9
exp 8.39
12
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
10
exp 9.47
Show all 32 rows
13
Houston Texans
Houston
9
exp 8.56
14
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
8.5
exp 8.10
15
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
7
exp 6.67
16
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
8
exp 7.93
17
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
8
exp 8.05
18
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
10.5
exp 10.87
19
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
7
exp 7.66
20
Denver Broncos
Denver
9
exp 10.21
21
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
8
exp 9.54
22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
3
exp 4.57
23
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
7
exp 8.68
24
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
7.5
exp 9.36
25
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
5
exp 6.90
26
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
6.5
exp 8.43
27
New York Jets
New York
5
exp 7.07
28
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
4
exp 6.57
29
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
6
exp 8.85
30
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
2
exp 4.95
31
Chicago Bears
Chicago
3
exp 5.96
32
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
1
exp 4.11

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2016 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2016-09-08Carolina PanthersatDenver Broncos59.7%20-21
2016-09-11Chicago BearsatHouston Texans67.5%14-23
2016-09-11Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets51.2%23-22
2016-09-11Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Ravens53.1%7-13
2016-09-11Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles71.3%10-29
2016-09-11Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons69.0%31-24
2016-09-11New England PatriotsatArizona Cardinals60.2%23-21
2016-09-11San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs80.6%27-33
2016-09-11Detroit LionsatIndianapolis Colts56.6%39-35
2016-09-11New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys56.0%20-19
2016-09-11Miami DolphinsatSeattle Seahawks81.8%10-12
2016-09-11Green Bay PackersatJacksonville Jaguars32.3%27-23
2016-09-11Oakland RaidersatNew Orleans Saints60.4%35-34
2016-09-11Minnesota VikingsatTennessee Titans29.3%25-16
2016-09-12Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins45.7%38-16
2016-09-12Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers53.3%0-28
2016-09-15New York JetsatBuffalo Bills57.3%37-31
2016-09-18San Francisco 49ersatCarolina Panthers78.5%27-46
2016-09-18Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers63.9%16-24
2016-09-18Indianapolis ColtsatDenver Broncos80.1%20-34
2016-09-18Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns42.8%25-20
2016-09-18Tampa Bay BuccaneersatArizona Cardinals78.1%7-40
2016-09-18Jacksonville JaguarsatSan Diego Chargers66.3%14-38
2016-09-18Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Texans43.8%12-19
2016-09-18Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins63.3%27-23
2016-09-18Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots80.7%24-31
2016-09-18Atlanta FalconsatOakland Raiders60.4%35-28
2016-09-18New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giants62.3%13-16
2016-09-18Tennessee TitansatDetroit Lionsshock80.8%16-15
2016-09-18Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings57.5%14-17
2016-09-18Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams32.8%3-9
2016-09-19Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears48.7%29-14
2016-09-22Houston TexansatNew England Patriots70.0%0-27
2016-09-25San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks77.9%18-37
2016-09-25Chicago BearsatDallas Cowboys66.8%17-31
2016-09-25Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals47.6%29-17
2016-09-25Arizona CardinalsatBuffalo Bills40.1%18-33
2016-09-25Cleveland BrownsatMiami Dolphins67.8%24-30
2016-09-25Los Angeles RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers52.6%37-32
2016-09-25San Diego ChargersatIndianapolis Colts59.8%22-26
2016-09-25New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs68.0%3-24
2016-09-25Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants64.7%29-27
2016-09-25Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles44.4%3-34
2016-09-25Baltimore RavensatJacksonville Jaguars38.0%19-17
2016-09-25Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers68.7%27-34
2016-09-25Minnesota VikingsatCarolina Panthers65.8%22-10
2016-09-25Oakland RaidersatTennessee Titans46.7%17-10
2016-09-26Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints54.1%45-32
2016-09-29Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals72.8%7-22
2016-10-02Detroit LionsatChicago Bears43.5%14-17
2016-10-02Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots75.7%16-0
2016-10-02Denver BroncosatTampa Bay Buccaneers23.8%27-7
2016-10-02Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins73.3%20-31
2016-10-02Los Angeles RamsatArizona Cardinals70.2%17-13
2016-10-02New Orleans SaintsatSan Diego Chargers62.5%35-34
2016-10-02Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers55.4%14-43
2016-10-02Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars33.6%27-30
2016-10-02Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons45.8%33-48
2016-10-02Seattle SeahawksatNew York Jets44.5%27-17
2016-10-02Oakland RaidersatBaltimore Ravens67.2%28-27
2016-10-02Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans81.7%20-27
2016-10-02Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers54.8%24-17
2016-10-03New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings78.0%10-24
2016-10-06Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers40.4%33-21
2016-10-09Chicago BearsatIndianapolis Colts65.6%23-29
2016-10-09Cincinnati BengalsatDallas Cowboys50.6%14-28
2016-10-09Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Rams53.5%30-19
2016-10-09Atlanta FalconsatDenver Broncosshock77.4%23-16
2016-10-09New England PatriotsatCleveland Browns24.7%33-13
2016-10-09San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders64.1%31-34
2016-10-09Washington RedskinsatBaltimore Ravens63.7%16-10
2016-10-09Tennessee TitansatMiami Dolphins72.4%30-17
2016-10-09Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lions46.5%23-24
2016-10-09New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers75.6%16-23
2016-10-09New York JetsatPittsburgh Steelers75.1%13-31
2016-10-09Houston TexansatMinnesota Vikings72.8%13-31
2016-10-10Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthersshock80.1%17-14
2016-10-13Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers27.6%13-21
2016-10-16San Francisco 49ersatBuffalo Bills80.8%16-45
2016-10-16Jacksonville JaguarsatChicago Bears61.9%17-16
2016-10-16Cincinnati BengalsatNew England Patriots69.5%17-35
2016-10-16Cleveland BrownsatTennessee Titans64.6%26-28
2016-10-16Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders42.6%26-10
2016-10-16Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans66.6%23-26
2016-10-16Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins50.3%20-27
2016-10-16Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers69.3%30-16
2016-10-16Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins25.2%15-30
2016-10-16Atlanta FalconsatSeattle Seahawks68.2%24-26
2016-10-16Baltimore RavensatNew York Giants55.2%23-27
2016-10-16Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions58.7%28-31
2016-10-16Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints41.6%38-41
2016-10-17New York JetsatArizona Cardinals70.9%3-28
2016-10-20Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers80.6%10-26
2016-10-23Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals82.0%17-31
2016-10-23Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins35.6%25-28
2016-10-23Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals51.0%6-6
2016-10-23San Diego ChargersatAtlanta Falcons73.7%33-30
2016-10-23New Orleans SaintsatKansas City Chiefs79.9%21-27
2016-10-23Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans47.7%34-26
2016-10-23Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions56.3%17-20
2016-10-23Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles43.5%10-21
2016-10-23New York GiantsatLos Angeles Rams52.2%17-10
2016-10-23Oakland RaidersatJacksonville Jaguars48.7%33-16
2016-10-23Baltimore RavensatNew York Jets59.3%16-24
2016-10-23New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers54.3%27-16
2016-10-23Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers54.8%34-17
2016-10-24Houston TexansatDenver Broncos71.4%9-27
2016-10-27Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans59.4%22-36
2016-10-30Washington RedskinsatCincinnati Bengals52.4%27-27
2016-10-30New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills48.3%41-25
2016-10-30San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos78.3%19-27
2016-10-30New York JetsatCleveland Browns34.7%31-28
2016-10-30Oakland RaidersatTampa Bay Buccaneers55.5%30-24
2016-10-30Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers50.8%20-30
2016-10-30Kansas City ChiefsatIndianapolis Colts38.0%30-14
2016-10-30Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys58.7%23-29
2016-10-30Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons55.8%32-33
2016-10-30Detroit LionsatHouston Texans59.1%13-20
2016-10-30Seattle SeahawksatNew Orleans Saints29.6%20-25
2016-10-31Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears25.3%10-20
2016-11-03Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers41.9%43-28
2016-11-06Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders39.2%20-30
2016-11-06Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns22.3%35-10
2016-11-06Tennessee TitansatSan Diego Chargers71.7%35-43
2016-11-06Jacksonville JaguarsatKansas City Chiefs89.9%14-19
2016-11-06Indianapolis ColtsatGreen Bay Packers73.6%31-26
2016-11-06New York JetsatMiami Dolphins52.9%23-27
2016-11-06Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants49.7%23-28
2016-11-06Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings70.9%22-16
2016-11-06Carolina PanthersatLos Angeles Rams45.5%13-10
2016-11-06Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens42.6%14-21
2016-11-06New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers44.4%41-23
2016-11-07Buffalo BillsatSeattle Seahawks68.7%25-31
2016-11-10Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens81.0%7-28
2016-11-13San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals85.0%20-23
2016-11-13Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers59.2%10-36
2016-11-13Denver BroncosatNew Orleans Saints41.2%25-23
2016-11-13Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers61.6%31-24
2016-11-13Kansas City ChiefsatCarolina Panthers48.0%20-17
2016-11-13Minnesota VikingsatWashington Redskins52.8%20-26
2016-11-13Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers51.6%35-30
2016-11-13Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles53.7%15-24
2016-11-13Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars31.4%24-21
2016-11-13Los Angeles RamsatNew York Jets63.6%9-6
2016-11-13Green Bay PackersatTennessee Titans34.5%25-47
2016-11-13Seattle SeahawksatNew England Patriots65.8%31-24
2016-11-14Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Giants56.6%20-21
2016-11-17New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers69.3%20-23
2016-11-20Chicago BearsatNew York Giants75.3%16-22
2016-11-20Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals56.2%16-12
2016-11-20Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns26.0%24-9
2016-11-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatKansas City Chiefsshock84.2%19-17
2016-11-20Arizona CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings54.3%24-30
2016-11-20Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts69.4%17-24
2016-11-20Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins63.8%24-42
2016-11-20Baltimore RavensatDallas Cowboys75.4%17-27
2016-11-20Miami DolphinsatLos Angeles Rams55.7%14-10
2016-11-20Philadelphia EaglesatSeattle Seahawks72.8%15-26
2016-11-20Jacksonville JaguarsatDetroit Lions82.7%19-26
2016-11-20New England PatriotsatSan Francisco 49ers18.2%30-17
2016-11-21Houston TexansatOakland Raiders49.7%20-27
2016-11-24Pittsburgh SteelersatIndianapolis Colts53.2%28-7
2016-11-24Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys69.3%26-31
2016-11-24Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions55.9%13-16
2016-11-27San Francisco 49ersatMiami Dolphins81.2%24-31
2016-11-27Tennessee TitansatChicago Bears56.7%27-21
2016-11-27Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens55.5%14-19
2016-11-27Jacksonville JaguarsatBuffalo Bills85.8%21-28
2016-11-27Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos56.9%30-27
2016-11-27New York GiantsatCleveland Browns24.8%27-13
2016-11-27Seattle SeahawksatTampa Bay Buccaneers29.1%5-14
2016-11-27Arizona CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons59.3%19-38
2016-11-27San Diego ChargersatHouston Texans67.2%21-13
2016-11-27New England PatriotsatNew York Jets31.1%22-17
2016-11-27Carolina PanthersatOakland Raiders58.0%32-35
2016-11-27Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints62.5%21-49
2016-11-28Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles68.7%27-13
2016-12-01Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings46.0%17-15
2016-12-04San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears64.6%6-26
2016-12-04Philadelphia EaglesatCincinnati Bengals56.3%14-32
2016-12-04Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders59.4%24-38
2016-12-04Denver BroncosatJacksonville Jaguars20.5%20-10
2016-12-04Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Diego Chargers58.4%28-21
2016-12-04Washington RedskinsatArizona Cardinals58.3%23-31
2016-12-04Kansas City ChiefsatAtlanta Falcons48.3%29-28
2016-12-04Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Ravens55.5%6-38
2016-12-04New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers64.2%14-24
2016-12-04Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints52.4%28-13
2016-12-04Houston TexansatGreen Bay Packers63.5%13-21
2016-12-04Carolina PanthersatSeattle Seahawks70.9%7-40
2016-12-04Los Angeles RamsatNew England Patriots86.0%10-26
2016-12-05Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets57.7%41-10
2016-12-08Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs69.2%13-21
2016-12-11Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions82.1%17-20
2016-12-11Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns24.6%23-10
2016-12-11Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills53.1%27-20
2016-12-11Denver BroncosatTennessee Titans31.4%10-13
2016-12-11New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers66.1%11-16
2016-12-11Arizona CardinalsatMiami Dolphins50.2%23-26
2016-12-11San Diego ChargersatCarolina Panthers68.7%16-28
2016-12-11Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts63.9%22-17
2016-12-11Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles53.7%27-22
2016-12-11Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants41.0%7-10
2016-12-11Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams37.1%42-14
2016-12-11Minnesota VikingsatJacksonville Jaguars27.3%25-16
2016-12-11Seattle SeahawksatGreen Bay Packers40.6%10-38
2016-12-11New York JetsatSan Francisco 49ers42.6%23-17
2016-12-12Baltimore RavensatNew England Patriots78.6%23-30
2016-12-15Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks84.3%3-24
2016-12-17Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets48.7%34-13
2016-12-18San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons90.2%13-41
2016-12-18Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears31.3%30-27
2016-12-18Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals46.9%24-20
2016-12-18Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills88.0%13-33
2016-12-18New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos45.9%16-3
2016-12-18Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys72.1%20-26
2016-12-18New Orleans SaintsatArizona Cardinals69.8%48-41
2016-12-18Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers41.0%19-16
2016-12-18Tennessee TitansatKansas City Chiefsshock85.2%19-17
2016-12-18Indianapolis ColtsatMinnesota Vikings68.1%34-6
2016-12-18Philadelphia EaglesatBaltimore Ravens66.0%26-27
2016-12-18Detroit LionsatNew York Giants53.2%6-17
2016-12-18Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans82.6%20-21
2016-12-19Carolina PanthersatWashington Redskins58.1%26-15
2016-12-22New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles45.0%19-24
2016-12-24San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Ramsstarters rested73.6%22-21
2016-12-24Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears38.1%41-21
2016-12-24Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Texansstarters rested57.4%10-12
2016-12-24Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills59.0%34-31
2016-12-24San Diego ChargersatCleveland Browns31.3%17-20
2016-12-24Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints54.6%24-31
2016-12-24Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks74.8%34-31
2016-12-24Indianapolis ColtsatOakland Raiders67.1%25-33
2016-12-24Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers55.8%33-16
2016-12-24Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars34.9%17-38
2016-12-24New York JetsatNew England Patriots90.0%3-41
2016-12-24Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers70.1%25-38
2016-12-25Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs70.0%10-33
2016-12-25Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers72.9%27-31
2016-12-26Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys70.3%21-42
2017-01-01Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings76.8%10-38
2017-01-01Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals57.8%10-27
2017-01-01Buffalo BillsatNew York Jetsstarters rested42.0%10-30
2017-01-01Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos52.8%6-24
2017-01-01Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelersstarters rested92.8%24-27
2017-01-01Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers52.9%16-17
2017-01-01Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams37.4%44-6
2017-01-01Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers24.9%37-27
2017-01-01Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts81.0%20-24
2017-01-01New York GiantsatWashington Redskins58.6%19-10
2017-01-01Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles34.2%13-27
2017-01-01New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins34.9%35-14
2017-01-01New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons75.5%32-38
2017-01-01Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions51.2%31-24
2017-01-01Houston TexansatTennessee Titansstarters rested46.7%17-24
2017-01-01Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers18.4%25-23
2017-01-07Detroit LionsatSeattle Seahawks71.4%6-26
2017-01-07Oakland RaidersatHouston Texans46.3%14-27
2017-01-08Miami DolphinsatPittsburgh Steelers73.0%12-30
2017-01-08New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers66.0%13-38
2017-01-14Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons61.8%20-36
2017-01-14Houston TexansatNew England Patriots84.6%16-34
2017-01-15Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs63.9%18-16
2017-01-15Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys56.8%34-31
2017-01-22Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons61.0%21-44
2017-01-22Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots70.3%17-36
2017-02-05Atlanta FalconsvsNew England Patriots60.7%28-34

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.