The expectation ledger

The 2015 season, against expectation

Every game of 2015scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
267
Model Brier
0.2254
Market Brier
0.2284
Longest odds beaten
12.0%
Philadelphia Eagles

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2015.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2015 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2015-09-10Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots72.2%21-28
2015-09-13Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears33.8%31-23
2015-09-13Cincinnati BengalsatOakland Raiders37.8%33-13
2015-09-13Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills52.6%14-27
2015-09-13Baltimore RavensatDenver Broncos61.8%13-19
2015-09-13Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jets61.8%10-31
2015-09-13Tennessee TitansatTampa Bay Buccaneers64.3%42-14
2015-09-13New Orleans SaintsatArizona Cardinals66.5%19-31
2015-09-13Detroit LionsatSan Diego Chargers57.0%28-33
2015-09-13Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Texans54.3%27-20
2015-09-13Miami DolphinsatWashington Redskins43.3%17-10
2015-09-13New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys73.3%26-27
2015-09-13Carolina PanthersatJacksonville Jaguars34.2%20-9
2015-09-13Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Rams31.4%31-34
2015-09-14Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons47.5%24-26
2015-09-14Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers65.9%3-20
2015-09-17Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs52.6%31-24
2015-09-20San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers59.9%18-43
2015-09-20Arizona CardinalsatChicago Bears37.8%48-23
2015-09-20San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals62.6%19-24
2015-09-20New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills42.8%40-32
2015-09-20Tennessee TitansatCleveland Browns61.2%14-28
2015-09-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints76.4%26-19
2015-09-20St. Louis RamsatWashington Redskins38.9%10-24
2015-09-20Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles50.7%20-10
2015-09-20Miami DolphinsatJacksonville Jaguars36.6%20-23
2015-09-20Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants59.6%24-20
2015-09-20Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings50.3%16-26
2015-09-20Seattle SeahawksatGreen Bay Packers53.3%17-27
2015-09-20Houston TexansatCarolina Panthers68.5%17-24
2015-09-20Baltimore RavensatOakland Raiders31.9%33-37
2015-09-21New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts71.3%20-7
2015-09-24Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants68.3%21-32
2015-09-27San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals67.1%7-47
2015-09-27Chicago BearsatSeattle Seahawks86.2%0-26
2015-09-27Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens54.2%28-24
2015-09-27Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins51.0%41-14
2015-09-27Denver BroncosatDetroit Lions40.4%24-12
2015-09-27Oakland RaidersatCleveland Browns63.3%27-20
2015-09-27Tampa Bay BuccaneersatHouston Texans72.5%9-19
2015-09-27San Diego ChargersatMinnesota Vikings53.5%14-31
2015-09-27Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans37.8%35-33
2015-09-27Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys74.8%39-28
2015-09-27Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Jets58.5%24-17
2015-09-27Jacksonville JaguarsatNew England Patriots90.9%17-51
2015-09-27New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers75.3%22-27
2015-09-27Pittsburgh SteelersatSt. Louis Rams42.9%12-6
2015-09-28Kansas City ChiefsatGreen Bay Packers71.7%28-38
2015-10-01Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers68.8%23-20
2015-10-04Oakland RaidersatChicago Bears53.1%20-22
2015-10-04Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals67.8%21-36
2015-10-04New York GiantsatBuffalo Bills72.5%24-10
2015-10-04Minnesota VikingsatDenver Broncos76.6%20-23
2015-10-04Cleveland BrownsatSan Diego Chargers72.8%27-30
2015-10-04Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers29.3%37-23
2015-10-04St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals78.2%24-22
2015-10-04Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts79.5%13-16
2015-10-04Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins36.6%20-23
2015-10-04Dallas CowboysatNew Orleans Saints38.0%20-26
2015-10-04New York JetsatMiami Dolphins45.7%27-14
2015-10-04Houston TexansatAtlanta Falcons66.3%21-48
2015-10-04Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers37.9%17-3
2015-10-05Detroit LionsatSeattle Seahawks78.9%10-13
2015-10-08Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans49.5%27-20
2015-10-11San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants63.9%27-30
2015-10-11Chicago BearsatKansas City Chiefs75.2%18-17
2015-10-11Seattle SeahawksatCincinnati Bengals53.8%24-27
2015-10-11Buffalo BillsatTennessee Titans34.6%14-13
2015-10-11Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders25.6%16-10
2015-10-11Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens78.2%33-30
2015-10-11Jacksonville JaguarsatTampa Bay Buccaneers58.0%31-38
2015-10-11Arizona CardinalsatDetroit Lions43.5%42-17
2015-10-11Washington RedskinsatAtlanta Falcons78.9%19-25
2015-10-11New England PatriotsatDallas Cowboys38.5%30-6
2015-10-11New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eagles67.7%17-39
2015-10-11St. Louis RamsatGreen Bay Packers82.5%10-24
2015-10-12Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Diego Chargers49.5%24-20
2015-10-15Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints40.8%21-31
2015-10-18Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions66.1%34-37
2015-10-18Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills47.1%34-21
2015-10-18Denver BroncosatCleveland Browns24.8%26-23
2015-10-18Arizona CardinalsatPittsburgh Steelers56.0%13-25
2015-10-18San Diego ChargersatGreen Bay Packers81.2%20-27
2015-10-18Kansas City ChiefsatMinnesota Vikings60.0%10-16
2015-10-18New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts34.9%34-27
2015-10-18Washington RedskinsatNew York Jets74.2%20-34
2015-10-18Miami DolphinsatTennessee Titans48.9%38-10
2015-10-18Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars43.8%31-20
2015-10-18Carolina PanthersatSeattle Seahawks65.8%27-23
2015-10-18Baltimore RavensatSan Francisco 49ers52.4%20-25
2015-10-19New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles60.8%7-27
2015-10-22Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers41.2%20-3
2015-10-25Buffalo BillsatJacksonville Jaguars23.8%31-34
2015-10-25Cleveland BrownsatSt. Louis Rams66.6%6-24
2015-10-25Tampa Bay BuccaneersatWashington Redskins61.3%30-31
2015-10-25Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers70.3%37-29
2015-10-25Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs41.2%13-23
2015-10-25New Orleans SaintsatIndianapolis Colts68.9%27-21
2015-10-25Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants55.3%20-27
2015-10-25Houston TexansatMiami Dolphins58.8%26-44
2015-10-25Philadelphia EaglesatCarolina Panthers66.2%16-27
2015-10-25Atlanta FalconsatTennessee Titans29.7%10-7
2015-10-25New York JetsatNew England Patriots83.8%23-30
2015-10-25Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions50.0%28-19
2015-10-26Baltimore RavensatArizona Cardinals70.8%18-26
2015-10-29Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots86.7%7-36
2015-11-01San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams61.0%6-27
2015-11-01Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears37.1%23-20
2015-11-01Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers50.1%16-10
2015-11-01Green Bay PackersatDenver Broncos57.6%10-29
2015-11-01Arizona CardinalsatCleveland Browns29.3%34-20
2015-11-01Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons81.3%23-20
2015-11-01San Diego ChargersatBaltimore Ravens64.7%26-29
2015-11-01Detroit LionsatKansas City Chiefs61.5%10-45
2015-11-01Seattle SeahawksatDallas Cowboys41.2%13-12
2015-11-01New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints55.4%49-52
2015-11-01New York JetsatOakland Raiders48.1%20-34
2015-11-01Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans75.0%6-20
2015-11-02Indianapolis ColtsatCarolina Panthers74.2%26-29
2015-11-05Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals88.9%10-31
2015-11-08Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills61.4%17-33
2015-11-08Denver BroncosatIndianapolis Colts31.8%24-27
2015-11-08New York GiantsatTampa Bay Buccaneers40.8%32-18
2015-11-08Washington RedskinsatNew England Patriots92.6%10-27
2015-11-08Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys54.0%33-27
2015-11-08Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Jets77.3%23-28
2015-11-08Green Bay PackersatCarolina Panthers55.2%29-37
2015-11-08Oakland RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers72.5%35-38
2015-11-08St. Louis RamsatMinnesota Vikings66.5%18-21
2015-11-08Tennessee TitansatNew Orleans Saints82.5%34-28
2015-11-08Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers48.4%16-17
2015-11-09Chicago BearsatSan Diego Chargers67.7%22-19
2015-11-12Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets56.2%22-17
2015-11-15Chicago BearsatSt. Louis Rams71.4%37-13
2015-11-15Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos76.3%29-13
2015-11-15Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers82.7%9-30
2015-11-15Dallas CowboysatTampa Bay Buccaneers41.0%6-10
2015-11-15Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks62.7%39-32
2015-11-15New Orleans SaintsatWashington Redskins45.9%14-47
2015-11-15Miami DolphinsatPhiladelphia Eagles73.3%20-19
2015-11-15New England PatriotsatNew York Giants28.4%27-26
2015-11-15Jacksonville JaguarsatBaltimore Ravens79.7%22-20
2015-11-15Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packersshock84.9%18-16
2015-11-15Carolina PanthersatTennessee Titans19.1%27-10
2015-11-15Minnesota VikingsatOakland Raiders43.6%30-14
2015-11-16Houston TexansatCincinnati Bengalsshock83.9%10-6
2015-11-19Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars62.0%13-19
2015-11-22San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks79.2%13-29
2015-11-22Denver BroncosatChicago Bears33.5%17-15
2015-11-22Cincinnati BengalsatArizona Cardinals59.7%31-34
2015-11-22Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPhiladelphia Eagles80.1%45-17
2015-11-22Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers35.6%33-3
2015-11-22Indianapolis ColtsatAtlanta Falcons57.6%24-21
2015-11-22Washington RedskinsatCarolina Panthers86.0%16-44
2015-11-22Dallas CowboysatMiami Dolphins59.2%24-14
2015-11-22New York JetsatHouston Texans61.1%17-24
2015-11-22Oakland RaidersatDetroit Lions59.1%13-18
2015-11-22Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings54.5%30-13
2015-11-22St. Louis RamsatBaltimore Ravens64.4%13-16
2015-11-23Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots84.3%13-20
2015-11-26Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers83.2%17-13
2015-11-26Carolina PanthersatDallas Cowboys34.4%33-14
2015-11-26Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lions52.2%14-45
2015-11-29St. Louis RamsatCincinnati Bengals82.0%7-31
2015-11-29Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs70.5%22-30
2015-11-29New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos41.3%24-30
2015-11-29Tampa Bay BuccaneersatIndianapolis Colts72.3%12-25
2015-11-29San Diego ChargersatJacksonville Jaguars54.0%31-25
2015-11-29New York GiantsatWashington Redskins42.0%14-20
2015-11-29Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets61.8%20-38
2015-11-29Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons50.5%20-10
2015-11-29Oakland RaidersatTennessee Titans44.6%24-21
2015-11-29New Orleans SaintsatHouston Texans68.4%6-24
2015-11-29Pittsburgh SteelersatSeattle Seahawks65.5%30-39
2015-11-29Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers29.3%19-13
2015-11-30Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns40.1%33-27
2015-12-03Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions38.5%27-23
2015-12-06San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears65.1%26-20
2015-12-06Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns20.4%37-3
2015-12-06Houston TexansatBuffalo Bills59.0%21-30
2015-12-06Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers26.4%17-3
2015-12-06Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers52.7%19-23
2015-12-06Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams26.2%27-3
2015-12-06Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders31.8%34-20
2015-12-06Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers61.2%10-45
2015-12-06Baltimore RavensatMiami Dolphins46.3%13-15
2015-12-06Philadelphia EaglesatNew England Patriotsshock88.0%35-28
2015-12-06New York JetsatNew York Giants62.9%23-20
2015-12-06Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans53.7%39-42
2015-12-06Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints22.6%41-38
2015-12-06Seattle SeahawksatMinnesota Vikings50.4%38-7
2015-12-07Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins52.6%19-16
2015-12-10Minnesota VikingsatArizona Cardinals76.3%20-23
2015-12-13San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns41.2%10-24
2015-12-13Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears63.5%24-21
2015-12-13Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals67.5%33-20
2015-12-13Buffalo BillsatPhiladelphia Eagles55.1%20-23
2015-12-13Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncosshock87.0%15-12
2015-12-13New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers63.6%24-17
2015-12-13San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs84.9%3-10
2015-12-13Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars31.8%16-51
2015-12-13Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers77.0%7-28
2015-12-13Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers85.4%0-38
2015-12-13Tennessee TitansatNew York Jets80.4%8-30
2015-12-13Detroit LionsatSt. Louis Rams51.2%14-21
2015-12-13New England PatriotsatHouston Texans31.5%27-6
2015-12-13Seattle SeahawksatBaltimore Ravens33.5%35-6
2015-12-14New York GiantsatMiami Dolphins50.9%31-24
2015-12-17Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSt. Louis Rams61.5%23-31
2015-12-19New York JetsatDallas Cowboys55.3%19-16
2015-12-20Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings73.6%17-38
2015-12-20Buffalo BillsatWashington Redskins46.6%25-35
2015-12-20Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelers56.9%27-34
2015-12-20Cleveland BrownsatSeattle Seahawks91.1%13-30
2015-12-20Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles34.9%40-17
2015-12-20Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers58.7%14-30
2015-12-20Kansas City ChiefsatBaltimore Ravens34.6%34-14
2015-12-20Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts58.4%16-10
2015-12-20Atlanta FalconsatJacksonville Jaguars49.9%23-17
2015-12-20Carolina PanthersatNew York Giants31.5%38-35
2015-12-20Green Bay PackersatOakland Raiders30.6%30-20
2015-12-20Tennessee TitansatNew England Patriots94.0%16-33
2015-12-20Cincinnati BengalsatSan Francisco 49ers32.0%24-14
2015-12-21Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints57.9%35-27
2015-12-24San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders59.6%20-23
2015-12-26Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles64.3%38-24
2015-12-27San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions67.6%17-32
2015-12-27Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers56.9%26-21
2015-12-27Dallas CowboysatBuffalo Bills63.8%6-16
2015-12-27Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs89.7%13-17
2015-12-27Green Bay PackersatArizona Cardinals65.8%8-38
2015-12-27Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins49.6%18-12
2015-12-27Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons25.7%13-20
2015-12-27New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings66.8%17-49
2015-12-27Jacksonville JaguarsatNew Orleans Saints65.7%27-38
2015-12-27New England PatriotsatNew York Jets31.7%20-26
2015-12-27St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawksshock86.6%23-17
2015-12-27Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens31.9%17-20
2015-12-27Houston TexansatTennessee Titansstarters rested31.1%34-6
2015-12-28Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncosstarters rested59.0%17-20
2016-01-03Detroit LionsatChicago Bears51.4%24-20
2016-01-03Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengalsstarters rested77.5%16-24
2016-01-03New York JetsatBuffalo Bills53.9%17-22
2016-01-03San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncosstarters rested84.4%20-27
2016-01-03Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns22.9%28-12
2016-01-03Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers89.5%10-38
2016-01-03Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals68.3%36-6
2016-01-03Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs84.7%17-23
2016-01-03Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Coltsstarters rested81.2%24-30
2016-01-03Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboysstarters rested52.2%34-23
2016-01-03New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins18.0%10-20
2016-01-03Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants61.7%35-30
2016-01-03New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons69.0%20-17
2016-01-03Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans80.3%6-30
2016-01-03Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers67.6%20-13
2016-01-03St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ersstarters rested46.0%16-19
2016-01-09Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals57.8%18-16
2016-01-09Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Texans39.2%30-0
2016-01-10Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins46.6%35-18
2016-01-10Seattle SeahawksatMinnesota Vikings43.9%10-9
2016-01-16Green Bay PackersatArizona Cardinals65.6%20-26
2016-01-16Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots51.4%20-27
2016-01-17Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos58.3%16-23
2016-01-17Seattle SeahawksatCarolina Panthers54.6%24-31
2016-01-24New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos58.9%18-20
2016-01-24Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers60.6%15-49
2016-02-07Carolina PanthersvsDenver Broncos41.5%10-24

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.