The expectation ledger

The 2014 season, against expectation

Every game of 2014scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 20132015→
Games
267
Model Brier
0.2058
Market Brier
0.2063
Longest odds beaten
13.8%
Washington Redskins

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2014.

1
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
12
exp 9.03
2
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
12
exp 9.22
3
Detroit Lions
Detroit
11
exp 8.61
4
Houston Texans
Houston
9
exp 7.26
5
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
9
exp 7.27
6
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
11
exp 9.45
7
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
11
exp 9.58
8
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
10.5
exp 9.22
9
Denver Broncos
Denver
12
exp 10.73
10
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
12
exp 10.86
11
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
11
exp 9.89
12
New England Patriots
Boston
12
exp 10.89
Show all 32 rows
13
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
9
exp 8.18
14
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
10
exp 9.47
15
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
10
exp 9.64
16
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
7
exp 6.68
17
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
9
exp 9.01
18
Miami Dolphins
Miami
8
exp 8.32
19
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
3
exp 3.39
20
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
6
exp 6.47
21
St. Louis Rams
St. Louis
6
exp 6.56
22
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
7
exp 7.65
23
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
7.5
exp 8.35
24
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
4
exp 5.00
25
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
3
exp 4.27
26
New York Jets
New York
4
exp 5.39
27
New York Giants
New York
6
exp 7.43
28
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
8
exp 9.67
29
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
7
exp 9.16
30
Chicago Bears
Chicago
5
exp 7.21
31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
2
exp 5.36
32
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
2
exp 6.76

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2014 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2014-09-04Green Bay PackersatSeattle Seahawks80.3%16-36
2014-09-07San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys38.5%28-17
2014-09-07Buffalo BillsatChicago Bears64.3%23-20
2014-09-07Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens54.9%23-16
2014-09-07Indianapolis ColtsatDenver Broncos70.2%24-31
2014-09-07Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers77.2%27-30
2014-09-07Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers39.3%20-14
2014-09-07Tennessee TitansatKansas City Chiefs64.2%26-10
2014-09-07Washington RedskinsatHouston Texans57.2%6-17
2014-09-07New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins39.1%20-33
2014-09-07Jacksonville JaguarsatPhiladelphia Eagles79.2%17-34
2014-09-07New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons42.9%34-37
2014-09-07Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets71.5%14-19
2014-09-07Minnesota VikingsatSt. Louis Rams64.4%34-6
2014-09-08San Diego ChargersatArizona Cardinals58.0%17-18
2014-09-08New York GiantsatDetroit Lions56.1%14-35
2014-09-11Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens54.1%6-26
2014-09-14Atlanta FalconsatCincinnati Bengals73.1%10-24
2014-09-14Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills53.4%10-29
2014-09-14Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos79.5%17-24
2014-09-14New Orleans SaintsatCleveland Browns34.9%24-26
2014-09-14St. Louis RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers52.8%19-17
2014-09-14Arizona CardinalsatNew York Giants46.6%25-14
2014-09-14Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers40.0%21-30
2014-09-14Jacksonville JaguarsatWashington Redskins63.1%10-41
2014-09-14Dallas CowboysatTennessee Titans62.3%26-10
2014-09-14New York JetsatGreen Bay Packers61.2%24-31
2014-09-14Detroit LionsatCarolina Panthers71.2%7-24
2014-09-14New England PatriotsatMinnesota Vikings49.2%30-7
2014-09-14Houston TexansatOakland Raiders52.9%30-14
2014-09-14Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ersshock81.4%28-20
2014-09-15Philadelphia EaglesatIndianapolis Colts57.8%30-27
2014-09-18Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons66.2%14-56
2014-09-21San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals52.7%14-23
2014-09-21Tennessee TitansatCincinnati Bengals75.3%7-33
2014-09-21San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills47.8%22-10
2014-09-21Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks61.7%20-26
2014-09-21Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns40.1%23-21
2014-09-21Kansas City ChiefsatMiami Dolphins63.4%34-15
2014-09-21Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars33.2%44-17
2014-09-21Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles77.8%34-37
2014-09-21Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Rams53.5%34-31
2014-09-21Houston TexansatNew York Giants60.6%17-30
2014-09-21Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions56.3%7-19
2014-09-21Pittsburgh SteelersatCarolina Panthers71.1%37-19
2014-09-21Oakland RaidersatNew England Patriots88.6%9-16
2014-09-21Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints66.4%9-20
2014-09-22Chicago BearsatNew York Jets51.3%27-19
2014-09-25New York GiantsatWashington Redskins49.6%45-14
2014-09-28Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears66.7%38-17
2014-09-28Buffalo BillsatHouston Texans50.4%17-23
2014-09-28Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPittsburgh Steelers79.9%27-24
2014-09-28Jacksonville JaguarsatSan Diego Chargers89.2%14-33
2014-09-28Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts69.7%17-41
2014-09-28New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys55.9%17-38
2014-09-28Miami DolphinsatOakland Raiders33.2%38-14
2014-09-28Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings57.5%28-41
2014-09-28Detroit LionsatNew York Jets49.5%24-17
2014-09-28Carolina PanthersatBaltimore Ravens56.5%10-38
2014-09-28Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers65.1%21-26
2014-09-29New England PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs40.9%14-41
2014-10-02Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers63.5%10-42
2014-10-05Chicago BearsatCarolina Panthers64.5%24-31
2014-10-05Cincinnati BengalsatNew England Patriots55.6%17-43
2014-10-05Buffalo BillsatDetroit Lions68.2%17-14
2014-10-05Arizona CardinalsatDenver Broncos63.0%20-41
2014-10-05Cleveland BrownsatTennessee Titans65.2%29-28
2014-10-05Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints74.5%31-37
2014-10-05New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers81.8%0-31
2014-10-05Baltimore RavensatIndianapolis Colts56.5%13-20
2014-10-05Houston TexansatDallas Cowboys75.0%17-20
2014-10-05St. Louis RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles70.4%28-34
2014-10-05Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants64.1%20-30
2014-10-05Pittsburgh SteelersatJacksonville Jaguars27.2%17-9
2014-10-05Kansas City ChiefsatSan Francisco 49ers69.5%17-22
2014-10-06Seattle SeahawksatWashington Redskins19.4%27-17
2014-10-09Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans39.3%33-28
2014-10-12Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons54.6%27-13
2014-10-12Carolina PanthersatCincinnati Bengals64.1%37-37
2014-10-12New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills40.0%37-22
2014-10-12Denver BroncosatNew York Jets26.1%31-17
2014-10-12Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns38.5%10-31
2014-10-12Baltimore RavensatTampa Bay Buccaneers37.7%48-17
2014-10-12Washington RedskinsatArizona Cardinals84.1%20-30
2014-10-12San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders19.0%31-28
2014-10-12Dallas CowboysatSeattle Seahawks74.0%30-23
2014-10-12Green Bay PackersatMiami Dolphins47.6%27-24
2014-10-12New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles65.1%0-27
2014-10-12Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans76.2%14-16
2014-10-12Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings54.3%17-3
2014-10-13San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams34.9%31-17
2014-10-16New York JetsatNew England Patriots85.5%25-27
2014-10-19San Francisco 49ersatDenver Broncos62.0%17-42
2014-10-19Miami DolphinsatChicago Bears66.6%27-14
2014-10-19Cincinnati BengalsatIndianapolis Colts59.8%0-27
2014-10-19Minnesota VikingsatBuffalo Bills61.5%16-17
2014-10-19Cleveland BrownsatJacksonville Jaguars37.1%6-24
2014-10-19Arizona CardinalsatOakland Raiders22.1%24-13
2014-10-19Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers72.2%23-20
2014-10-19Tennessee TitansatWashington Redskins47.5%17-19
2014-10-19New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys72.9%21-31
2014-10-19Atlanta FalconsatBaltimore Ravens78.6%7-29
2014-10-19New Orleans SaintsatDetroit Lions58.6%23-24
2014-10-19Carolina PanthersatGreen Bay Packers60.9%17-38
2014-10-19Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Rams29.6%26-28
2014-10-20Houston TexansatPittsburgh Steelers71.2%23-30
2014-10-23San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos69.8%21-35
2014-10-26Chicago BearsatNew England Patriots79.0%23-51
2014-10-26Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals53.9%24-27
2014-10-26Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets48.8%43-23
2014-10-26Oakland RaidersatCleveland Browns73.2%13-23
2014-10-26Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers50.8%19-13
2014-10-26Philadelphia EaglesatArizona Cardinals61.2%20-24
2014-10-26St. Louis RamsatKansas City Chiefs71.8%7-34
2014-10-26Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers46.4%34-51
2014-10-26Miami DolphinsatJacksonville Jaguars35.2%27-13
2014-10-26Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons31.4%22-21
2014-10-26Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints51.9%23-44
2014-10-26Seattle SeahawksatCarolina Panthers44.2%13-9
2014-10-26Houston TexansatTennessee Titans61.3%30-16
2014-10-27Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboysshock86.2%20-17
2014-10-30New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers52.1%28-10
2014-11-02Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals86.8%23-33
2014-11-02Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots51.9%21-43
2014-11-02Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCleveland Browns66.8%17-22
2014-11-02Arizona CardinalsatDallas Cowboys56.0%28-17
2014-11-02San Diego ChargersatMiami Dolphins47.8%0-37
2014-11-02New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs82.7%10-24
2014-11-02Washington RedskinsatMinnesota Vikings68.2%26-29
2014-11-02Philadelphia EaglesatHouston Texans40.5%31-21
2014-11-02Oakland RaidersatSeattle Seahawks92.3%24-30
2014-11-02Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers55.2%23-43
2014-11-02St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ersshock80.9%13-10
2014-11-03Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Giants45.6%40-24
2014-11-06Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals77.2%24-3
2014-11-09San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints59.3%27-24
2014-11-09Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers71.8%14-55
2014-11-09Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills47.4%17-13
2014-11-09Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders13.0%41-17
2014-11-09Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers51.3%27-17
2014-11-09St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals80.1%14-31
2014-11-09Dallas CowboysatJacksonville Jaguars18.4%31-17
2014-11-09Miami DolphinsatDetroit Lions58.7%16-20
2014-11-09New York GiantsatSeattle Seahawks81.6%17-38
2014-11-09Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets28.4%13-20
2014-11-09Tennessee TitansatBaltimore Ravens79.2%7-21
2014-11-10Carolina PanthersatPhiladelphia Eagles72.7%21-45
2014-11-13Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins67.2%9-22
2014-11-16San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants35.9%16-10
2014-11-16Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears56.0%13-21
2014-11-16Cincinnati BengalsatNew Orleans Saints67.3%27-10
2014-11-16Denver BroncosatSt. Louis Rams27.7%7-22
2014-11-16Houston TexansatCleveland Browns67.0%23-7
2014-11-16Tampa Bay BuccaneersatWashington Redskins67.1%27-7
2014-11-16Detroit LionsatArizona Cardinals70.8%6-14
2014-11-16Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers88.1%6-13
2014-11-16Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs49.3%20-24
2014-11-16New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts48.0%42-20
2014-11-16Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers55.3%20-53
2014-11-16Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers64.8%19-17
2014-11-17Pittsburgh SteelersatTennessee Titans35.3%27-24
2014-11-20Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raidersshock17.0%20-24
2014-11-23Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears71.7%13-21
2014-11-23Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Texans45.0%22-13
2014-11-23Miami DolphinsatDenver Broncos70.3%36-39
2014-11-23Cleveland BrownsatAtlanta Falcons59.8%26-24
2014-11-23Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks57.2%3-19
2014-11-23St. Louis RamsatSan Diego Chargers67.9%24-27
2014-11-23Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts88.1%3-23
2014-11-23Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants40.4%31-28
2014-11-23Tennessee TitansatPhiladelphia Eagles82.9%24-43
2014-11-23Detroit LionsatNew England Patriots79.0%9-34
2014-11-23Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings36.2%24-21
2014-11-23Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers88.5%13-17
2014-11-24New York JetsatBuffalo Bills69.4%3-38
2014-11-24Baltimore RavensatNew Orleans Saints55.8%34-27
2014-11-27Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions67.6%17-34
2014-11-27Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys58.3%33-10
2014-11-27Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers53.7%19-3
2014-11-30Cincinnati BengalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers28.1%14-13
2014-11-30Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills63.4%10-26
2014-11-30Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs49.5%29-16
2014-11-30Arizona CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons30.5%18-29
2014-11-30San Diego ChargersatBaltimore Ravens61.9%34-33
2014-11-30Washington RedskinsatIndianapolis Colts85.7%27-49
2014-11-30New York GiantsatJacksonville Jaguars39.5%24-25
2014-11-30New England PatriotsatGreen Bay Packers44.1%21-26
2014-11-30Carolina PanthersatMinnesota Vikings56.9%13-31
2014-11-30Oakland RaidersatSt. Louis Rams81.1%0-52
2014-11-30New Orleans SaintsatPittsburgh Steelers64.7%35-32
2014-11-30Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans70.2%21-45
2014-12-01Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets33.7%16-13
2014-12-04Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears47.1%41-28
2014-12-07San Francisco 49ersatOakland Raiders19.2%13-24
2014-12-07Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals65.8%42-21
2014-12-07Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos79.4%17-24
2014-12-07Indianapolis ColtsatCleveland Browns37.1%25-24
2014-12-07Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions82.4%17-34
2014-12-07Kansas City ChiefsatArizona Cardinals65.7%14-17
2014-12-07New England PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers41.0%23-14
2014-12-07St. Louis RamsatWashington Redskins35.0%24-0
2014-12-07Baltimore RavensatMiami Dolphins56.1%28-13
2014-12-07Seattle SeahawksatPhiladelphia Eagles48.2%24-14
2014-12-07New York GiantsatTennessee Titans48.4%36-7
2014-12-07Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars35.9%27-13
2014-12-07New York JetsatMinnesota Vikings72.8%24-30
2014-12-07Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints72.7%41-10
2014-12-08Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers79.8%37-43
2014-12-11Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams46.7%12-6
2014-12-14San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks79.4%7-17
2014-12-14Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns42.9%30-0
2014-12-14Green Bay PackersatBuffalo Bills37.8%13-21
2014-12-14Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers41.9%22-10
2014-12-14Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers76.8%17-19
2014-12-14Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs83.2%13-31
2014-12-14Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts73.9%10-17
2014-12-14Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants76.8%13-24
2014-12-14Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles64.0%38-27
2014-12-14Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots82.1%13-41
2014-12-14Pittsburgh SteelersatAtlanta Falcons42.0%27-20
2014-12-14Jacksonville JaguarsatBaltimore Ravens90.9%12-20
2014-12-14New York JetsatTennessee Titans53.7%16-11
2014-12-14Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions71.0%14-16
2014-12-15New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears52.3%31-15
2014-12-18Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars57.1%13-21
2014-12-20Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskinsstarters rested23.3%24-27
2014-12-20San Diego ChargersatSan Francisco 49ers60.3%38-35
2014-12-21Detroit LionsatChicago Bears35.6%20-14
2014-12-21Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders31.2%24-26
2014-12-21Cleveland BrownsatCarolina Panthers70.9%13-17
2014-12-21Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers22.3%20-3
2014-12-21Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals44.2%35-6
2014-12-21Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers65.3%12-20
2014-12-21Indianapolis ColtsatDallas Cowboys58.5%7-42
2014-12-21Minnesota VikingsatMiami Dolphins65.6%35-37
2014-12-21Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints68.2%30-14
2014-12-21New York GiantsatSt. Louis Rams65.2%37-27
2014-12-21New England PatriotsatNew York Jets14.8%17-16
2014-12-21Baltimore RavensatHouston Texans38.6%13-25
2014-12-22Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals40.7%28-37
2014-12-28Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings68.6%9-13
2014-12-28Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers60.9%17-27
2014-12-28Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriotsshock84.4%17-9
2014-12-28Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos91.0%14-47
2014-12-28Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens81.3%10-20
2014-12-28New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers38.9%23-20
2014-12-28San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefsstarters rested56.8%7-19
2014-12-28Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans20.0%27-10
2014-12-28Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins19.7%44-17
2014-12-28New York JetsatMiami Dolphins78.2%37-24
2014-12-28Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants51.9%34-26
2014-12-28Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons57.3%34-3
2014-12-28Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texansstarters rested83.0%17-23
2014-12-28Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers65.8%20-30
2014-12-28St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawks88.6%6-20
2014-12-28Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ersstarters rested49.4%17-20
2015-01-03Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers52.8%16-27
2015-01-03Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers64.8%30-17
2015-01-04Cincinnati BengalsatIndianapolis Colts59.8%10-26
2015-01-04Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys68.9%20-24
2015-01-10Carolina PanthersatSeattle Seahawks82.7%17-31
2015-01-10Baltimore RavensatNew England Patriots68.4%31-35
2015-01-11Indianapolis ColtsatDenver Broncos68.7%24-13
2015-01-11Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers58.9%21-26
2015-01-18Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots67.2%7-45
2015-01-18Green Bay PackersatSeattle Seahawks73.8%22-28
2015-02-01Seattle SeahawksvsNew England Patriots41.6%24-28

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.