The expectation ledger

The 2013 season, against expectation

Every game of 2013scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 20122014→
Games
267
Model Brier
0.2148
Market Brier
0.2061
Longest odds beaten
15.0%
Jacksonville Jaguars

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2013.

1
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
10
exp 6.97
2
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
11
exp 8.21
3
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
10
exp 7.24
4
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
12
exp 9.30
5
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
11
exp 9.11
6
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
13
exp 11.19
7
New York Jets
New York
8
exp 6.21
8
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
11
exp 9.39
9
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
12
exp 10.46
10
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
11
exp 9.60
11
Denver Broncos
Denver
13
exp 11.77
12
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
9
exp 7.87
Show all 32 rows
13
New England Patriots
Boston
12
exp 10.96
14
St. Louis Rams
St. Louis
7
exp 6.61
15
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
8
exp 7.74
16
Miami Dolphins
Miami
8
exp 7.86
17
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
6
exp 6.08
18
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
4
exp 4.36
19
Detroit Lions
Detroit
7
exp 7.44
20
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
7
exp 7.53
21
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
8
exp 8.61
22
Chicago Bears
Chicago
8
exp 8.83
23
New York Giants
New York
7
exp 7.91
24
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
8.5
exp 9.43
25
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
5.5
exp 6.68
26
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
8
exp 9.62
27
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
4
exp 5.68
28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
4
exp 5.76
29
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
4
exp 5.82
30
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
4
exp 7.66
31
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
3
exp 6.80
32
Houston Texans
Houston
2
exp 7.29

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2013 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2013-09-05Baltimore RavensatDenver Broncos56.5%27-49
2013-09-08Cincinnati BengalsatChicago Bears56.2%21-24
2013-09-08New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills32.7%23-21
2013-09-08Miami DolphinsatCleveland Browns50.9%23-10
2013-09-08Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Jets53.9%17-18
2013-09-08Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams65.2%24-27
2013-09-08Kansas City ChiefsatJacksonville Jaguars58.5%28-2
2013-09-08Oakland RaidersatIndianapolis Colts73.1%17-21
2013-09-08New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys47.8%31-36
2013-09-08Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints51.2%17-23
2013-09-08Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions44.8%24-34
2013-09-08Seattle SeahawksatCarolina Panthers47.6%12-7
2013-09-08Tennessee TitansatPittsburgh Steelers67.7%16-9
2013-09-08Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers62.0%28-34
2013-09-09Houston TexansatSan Diego Chargers48.8%31-28
2013-09-09Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins74.5%33-27
2013-09-12New York JetsatNew England Patriots82.4%10-13
2013-09-15San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks56.3%3-29
2013-09-15Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears64.2%30-31
2013-09-15Carolina PanthersatBuffalo Bills50.1%23-24
2013-09-15Denver BroncosatNew York Giants46.9%41-23
2013-09-15Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens82.6%6-14
2013-09-15New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers46.5%16-14
2013-09-15Detroit LionsatArizona Cardinals52.3%21-25
2013-09-15San Diego ChargersatPhiladelphia Eagles52.8%33-30
2013-09-15Dallas CowboysatKansas City Chiefs43.2%16-17
2013-09-15Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts60.6%24-20
2013-09-15Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packers72.1%20-38
2013-09-15St. Louis RamsatAtlanta Falcons71.8%24-31
2013-09-15Jacksonville JaguarsatOakland Raiders70.2%9-19
2013-09-15Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans70.9%24-30
2013-09-16Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals66.0%10-20
2013-09-19Kansas City ChiefsatPhiladelphia Eagles61.4%26-16
2013-09-22Chicago BearsatPittsburgh Steelers48.9%40-23
2013-09-22Green Bay PackersatCincinnati Bengals52.5%30-34
2013-09-22Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets57.7%20-27
2013-09-22Cleveland BrownsatMinnesota Vikings73.7%31-27
2013-09-22Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew England Patriots81.5%3-23
2013-09-22Arizona CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints76.1%7-31
2013-09-22San Diego ChargersatTennessee Titans57.2%17-20
2013-09-22Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins63.4%27-20
2013-09-22St. Louis RamsatDallas Cowboys64.1%7-31
2013-09-22Atlanta FalconsatMiami Dolphins51.7%23-27
2013-09-22New York GiantsatCarolina Panthers55.5%0-38
2013-09-22Jacksonville JaguarsatSeattle Seahawks91.6%17-45
2013-09-22Houston TexansatBaltimore Ravens62.0%9-30
2013-09-22Indianapolis ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers73.5%27-7
2013-09-23Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos86.4%21-37
2013-09-26San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams42.0%35-11
2013-09-29Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions44.3%32-40
2013-09-29Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns36.9%6-17
2013-09-29Baltimore RavensatBuffalo Bills31.1%20-23
2013-09-29Philadelphia EaglesatDenver Broncos88.1%20-52
2013-09-29Arizona CardinalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers63.5%13-10
2013-09-29Dallas CowboysatSan Diego Chargers53.6%21-30
2013-09-29New York GiantsatKansas City Chiefs51.2%7-31
2013-09-29Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars25.0%37-3
2013-09-29Washington RedskinsatOakland Raiders52.6%24-14
2013-09-29New England PatriotsatAtlanta Falcons46.4%30-23
2013-09-29New York JetsatTennessee Titans64.4%13-38
2013-09-29Seattle SeahawksatHouston Texans47.1%23-20
2013-09-29Pittsburgh SteelersatMinnesota Vikings54.1%27-34
2013-09-30Miami DolphinsatNew Orleans Saints63.7%17-38
2013-10-03Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns59.2%24-37
2013-10-06New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears52.7%26-18
2013-10-06New England PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals40.0%6-13
2013-10-06Denver BroncosatDallas Cowboys34.3%51-48
2013-10-06Carolina PanthersatArizona Cardinals45.5%6-22
2013-10-06San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders41.2%17-27
2013-10-06Kansas City ChiefsatTennessee Titans65.6%26-17
2013-10-06Seattle SeahawksatIndianapolis Colts45.0%28-34
2013-10-06Baltimore RavensatMiami Dolphins46.7%26-23
2013-10-06Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants69.6%36-21
2013-10-06Jacksonville JaguarsatSt. Louis Rams76.4%20-34
2013-10-06Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers71.3%9-22
2013-10-06Houston TexansatSan Francisco 49ers64.1%3-34
2013-10-07New York JetsatAtlanta Falcons74.2%30-28
2013-10-10New York GiantsatChicago Bears73.4%21-27
2013-10-13Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills39.6%27-24
2013-10-13Jacksonville JaguarsatDenver Broncos94.3%19-35
2013-10-13Detroit LionsatCleveland Browns57.2%31-17
2013-10-13Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers59.8%31-20
2013-10-13Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs71.2%7-24
2013-10-13Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys61.7%16-31
2013-10-13Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets61.7%19-6
2013-10-13Green Bay PackersatBaltimore Ravens61.9%19-17
2013-10-13Carolina PanthersatMinnesota Vikings59.2%35-10
2013-10-13New Orleans SaintsatNew England Patriots63.1%27-30
2013-10-13St. Louis RamsatHouston Texans72.5%38-13
2013-10-13Tennessee TitansatSeattle Seahawks78.7%13-20
2013-10-13Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers77.5%20-32
2013-10-14Indianapolis ColtsatSan Diego Chargers43.2%9-19
2013-10-17Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals31.7%34-22
2013-10-20San Francisco 49ersatTennessee Titans37.9%31-17
2013-10-20Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins47.0%41-45
2013-10-20Cincinnati BengalsatDetroit Lions50.5%27-24
2013-10-20Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins71.3%23-21
2013-10-20Denver BroncosatIndianapolis Colts40.6%33-39
2013-10-20Cleveland BrownsatGreen Bay Packers80.5%13-31
2013-10-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons76.0%23-31
2013-10-20San Diego ChargersatJacksonville Jaguars26.8%24-6
2013-10-20Houston TexansatKansas City Chiefs63.8%16-17
2013-10-20Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles50.8%17-3
2013-10-20New England PatriotsatNew York Jets26.0%27-30
2013-10-20St. Louis RamsatCarolina Panthers67.1%15-30
2013-10-20Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers38.5%16-19
2013-10-21Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants52.4%7-23
2013-10-24Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers35.5%31-13
2013-10-27San Francisco 49ersatJacksonville Jaguars9.3%42-10
2013-10-27New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals78.0%9-49
2013-10-27Buffalo BillsatNew Orleans Saints80.2%17-35
2013-10-27Washington RedskinsatDenver Broncos81.7%21-45
2013-10-27Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs70.9%17-23
2013-10-27Atlanta FalconsatArizona Cardinals44.5%13-27
2013-10-27Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions53.9%30-31
2013-10-27Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots76.9%17-27
2013-10-27New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles57.8%15-7
2013-10-27Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings31.6%44-31
2013-10-27Pittsburgh SteelersatOakland Raiders46.1%18-21
2013-10-28Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Rams30.8%14-9
2013-10-31Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins41.8%20-22
2013-11-03Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills44.5%23-13
2013-11-03Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns34.6%18-24
2013-11-03Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSeattle Seahawks89.7%24-27
2013-11-03San Diego ChargersatWashington Redskins51.3%24-30
2013-11-03Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans43.8%27-24
2013-11-03Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys74.2%23-27
2013-11-03Philadelphia EaglesatOakland Raiders60.0%49-20
2013-11-03Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers67.8%10-34
2013-11-03New Orleans SaintsatNew York Jets31.3%20-26
2013-11-03Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots80.5%31-55
2013-11-03Tennessee TitansatSt. Louis Rams58.9%28-21
2013-11-04Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers74.7%27-20
2013-11-07Washington RedskinsatMinnesota Vikings49.0%27-34
2013-11-10Detroit LionsatChicago Bears65.7%21-19
2013-11-10Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens55.4%17-20
2013-11-10Buffalo BillsatPittsburgh Steelers66.3%10-23
2013-11-10Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers34.1%28-20
2013-11-10Houston TexansatArizona Cardinals60.1%24-27
2013-11-10St. Louis RamsatIndianapolis Colts79.4%38-8
2013-11-10Dallas CowboysatNew Orleans Saints66.5%17-49
2013-11-10Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packersshock79.5%27-13
2013-11-10Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons32.9%33-10
2013-11-10Oakland RaidersatNew York Giants72.0%20-24
2013-11-10Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titansshock85.0%29-27
2013-11-10Carolina PanthersatSan Francisco 49ers66.6%10-9
2013-11-11Miami DolphinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers40.2%19-22
2013-11-14Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans48.3%30-27
2013-11-17San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints56.2%20-23
2013-11-17Baltimore RavensatChicago Bears54.0%20-23
2013-11-17Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals76.2%20-41
2013-11-17New York JetsatBuffalo Bills50.2%14-37
2013-11-17Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos76.7%17-27
2013-11-17Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers46.4%28-41
2013-11-17Arizona CardinalsatJacksonville Jaguars29.6%27-14
2013-11-17San Diego ChargersatMiami Dolphins58.8%16-20
2013-11-17Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles63.6%16-24
2013-11-17Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants45.9%13-27
2013-11-17Detroit LionsatPittsburgh Steelers52.0%27-37
2013-11-17Oakland RaidersatHouston Texans71.8%28-23
2013-11-17Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks87.3%20-41
2013-11-18New England PatriotsatCarolina Panthers51.3%20-24
2013-11-21New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons33.1%17-13
2013-11-24Chicago BearsatSt. Louis Rams49.7%21-42
2013-11-24Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots51.2%31-34
2013-11-24Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns50.0%27-11
2013-11-24Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions71.1%24-21
2013-11-24Indianapolis ColtsatArizona Cardinals51.7%11-40
2013-11-24San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs68.3%41-38
2013-11-24Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants56.5%24-21
2013-11-24Carolina PanthersatMiami Dolphins41.3%20-16
2013-11-24Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texansshock79.9%13-6
2013-11-24New York JetsatBaltimore Ravens77.2%3-19
2013-11-24Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers73.5%26-26
2013-11-24Tennessee TitansatOakland Raiders50.6%23-19
2013-11-25San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins33.4%27-6
2013-11-28Oakland RaidersatDallas Cowboys79.4%24-31
2013-11-28Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions52.6%10-40
2013-11-28Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens66.5%20-22
2013-12-01Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings45.9%20-23
2013-12-01Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers44.4%17-10
2013-12-01Atlanta FalconsatBuffalo Bills57.3%34-31
2013-12-01Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs35.5%35-28
2013-12-01Jacksonville JaguarsatCleveland Browns73.9%32-28
2013-12-01Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers82.3%6-27
2013-12-01Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles56.3%21-24
2013-12-01Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts66.6%14-22
2013-12-01New York GiantsatWashington Redskins50.6%24-17
2013-12-01Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets48.8%23-3
2013-12-01New England PatriotsatHouston Texans23.4%34-31
2013-12-01St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers75.4%13-23
2013-12-02New Orleans SaintsatSeattle Seahawks68.1%7-34
2013-12-05Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars49.5%20-27
2013-12-08Indianapolis ColtsatCincinnati Bengals70.3%28-42
2013-12-08Buffalo BillsatTampa Bay Buccaneers61.8%6-27
2013-12-08Tennessee TitansatDenver Broncos86.4%28-51
2013-12-08Cleveland BrownsatNew England Patriots88.4%26-27
2013-12-08St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals60.3%10-30
2013-12-08New York GiantsatSan Diego Chargers54.7%14-37
2013-12-08Kansas City ChiefsatWashington Redskins44.6%45-10
2013-12-08Miami DolphinsatPittsburgh Steelers60.2%34-28
2013-12-08Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles60.0%20-34
2013-12-08Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers65.5%21-22
2013-12-08Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets61.9%27-37
2013-12-08Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints56.1%13-31
2013-12-08Minnesota VikingsatBaltimore Ravens76.5%26-29
2013-12-08Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers49.5%17-19
2013-12-09Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears54.3%28-45
2013-12-12San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncosshock82.8%27-20
2013-12-15San Francisco 49ersatTampa Bay Buccaneers28.4%33-14
2013-12-15Chicago BearsatCleveland Browns36.8%38-31
2013-12-15Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers40.0%20-30
2013-12-15Buffalo BillsatJacksonville Jaguars52.7%27-20
2013-12-15Arizona CardinalsatTennessee Titans45.0%37-34
2013-12-15Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders32.0%56-31
2013-12-15Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts77.8%3-25
2013-12-15Washington RedskinsatAtlanta Falcons68.9%26-27
2013-12-15Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys61.7%37-36
2013-12-15New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins40.6%20-24
2013-12-15Philadelphia EaglesatMinnesota Vikings45.0%30-48
2013-12-15Seattle SeahawksatNew York Giants26.9%23-0
2013-12-15New York JetsatCarolina Panthers83.9%20-30
2013-12-15New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Rams36.5%16-27
2013-12-16Baltimore RavensatDetroit Lions45.0%18-16
2013-12-22Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles53.1%11-54
2013-12-22Minnesota VikingsatCincinnati Bengals75.1%14-42
2013-12-22Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills37.7%0-19
2013-12-22Denver BroncosatHouston Texans18.5%37-13
2013-12-22Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jets63.1%13-24
2013-12-22Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSt. Louis Rams70.8%13-23
2013-12-22Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawksshock80.4%17-10
2013-12-22Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers83.7%13-26
2013-12-22Indianapolis ColtsatKansas City Chiefs63.4%23-7
2013-12-22Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins39.2%24-23
2013-12-22New York GiantsatDetroit Lions62.1%23-20
2013-12-22Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars42.9%20-16
2013-12-22Pittsburgh SteelersatGreen Bay Packersstarters rested57.2%38-31
2013-12-22New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers60.9%13-17
2013-12-22New England PatriotsatBaltimore Ravens52.8%41-7
2013-12-23Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers85.0%24-34
2013-12-29San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals44.5%23-20
2013-12-29Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears63.3%33-28
2013-12-29Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals66.1%17-34
2013-12-29Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots85.5%20-34
2013-12-29Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders14.9%34-14
2013-12-29Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers82.5%7-20
2013-12-29Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints80.8%17-42
2013-12-29Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers63.3%24-27
2013-12-29Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts87.0%10-30
2013-12-29Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants74.1%6-20
2013-12-29Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboysstarters rested55.4%24-22
2013-12-29New York JetsatMiami Dolphins73.2%20-7
2013-12-29Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons32.2%21-20
2013-12-29Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikingsstarters rested58.2%13-14
2013-12-29St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawks78.8%9-27
2013-12-29Houston TexansatTennessee Titans72.4%10-16
2014-01-04Kansas City ChiefsatIndianapolis Colts67.4%44-45
2014-01-04New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eagles51.0%26-24
2014-01-05San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers32.0%23-20
2014-01-05San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals69.1%27-10
2014-01-11Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots73.9%22-43
2014-01-11New Orleans SaintsatSeattle Seahawks70.0%15-23
2014-01-12San Francisco 49ersatCarolina Panthers49.0%23-10
2014-01-12San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos70.8%17-24
2014-01-19San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks56.3%17-23
2014-01-19New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos58.5%16-26
2014-02-02Denver BroncosvsSeattle Seahawks52.0%8-43

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