The expectation ledger

The 2012 season, against expectation

Every game of 2012scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 20112013→
Games
267
Model Brier
0.2185
Market Brier
0.2088
Longest odds beaten
13.2%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2012.

1
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
11
exp 7.04
2
Denver Broncos
Denver
13
exp 9.21
3
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
10
exp 6.89
4
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
10
exp 6.90
5
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
11
exp 8.43
6
St. Louis Rams
St. Louis
7.5
exp 5.04
7
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
13
exp 11.01
8
Houston Texans
Houston
12
exp 10.21
9
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
10
exp 8.67
10
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
11.5
exp 10.26
11
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
8
exp 7.43
12
Chicago Bears
Chicago
10
exp 9.46
Show all 32 rows
13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
7
exp 6.60
14
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
7
exp 6.65
15
New England Patriots
Boston
12
exp 11.97
16
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
10
exp 10.08
17
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
11
exp 11.11
18
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
5
exp 5.50
19
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
6
exp 6.51
20
Miami Dolphins
Miami
7
exp 7.62
21
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
6
exp 6.75
22
New York Giants
New York
9
exp 10.22
23
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
7
exp 8.53
24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
8
exp 9.53
25
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
5
exp 6.63
26
New York Jets
New York
6
exp 7.70
27
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
7
exp 8.81
28
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
4
exp 6.34
29
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
2
exp 5.05
30
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
4
exp 7.20
31
Detroit Lions
Detroit
4
exp 7.23
32
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
2
exp 5.41

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2012 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2012-09-05Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants75.0%24-17
2012-09-09San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers66.3%30-22
2012-09-09Indianapolis ColtsatChicago Bears71.8%21-41
2012-09-09Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets68.6%28-48
2012-09-09Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos42.4%19-31
2012-09-09Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns38.0%17-16
2012-09-09Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers46.4%10-16
2012-09-09Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals55.2%16-20
2012-09-09Atlanta FalconsatKansas City Chiefs49.9%40-24
2012-09-09Washington RedskinsatNew Orleans Saintsshock82.8%40-32
2012-09-09Miami DolphinsatHouston Texans65.4%10-30
2012-09-09Jacksonville JaguarsatMinnesota Vikings57.2%23-26
2012-09-09St. Louis RamsatDetroit Lions79.6%23-27
2012-09-09New England PatriotsatTennessee Titans36.1%34-13
2012-09-10Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens73.0%13-44
2012-09-10San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders50.5%22-14
2012-09-13Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers70.8%10-23
2012-09-16Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals68.9%27-34
2012-09-16Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills55.3%17-35
2012-09-16Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Giants79.5%34-41
2012-09-16Arizona CardinalsatNew England Patriotsshock82.0%20-18
2012-09-16Tennessee TitansatSan Diego Chargers70.9%10-38
2012-09-16Minnesota VikingsatIndianapolis Colts53.5%20-23
2012-09-16Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Rams42.8%28-31
2012-09-16Dallas CowboysatSeattle Seahawks54.1%7-27
2012-09-16Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins62.2%13-35
2012-09-16Baltimore RavensatPhiladelphia Eagles51.4%23-24
2012-09-16Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars39.4%27-7
2012-09-16New York JetsatPittsburgh Steelers62.6%10-27
2012-09-16New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers40.2%27-35
2012-09-16Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers70.9%19-27
2012-09-17Denver BroncosatAtlanta Falcons69.3%21-27
2012-09-20New York GiantsatCarolina Panthers44.6%36-7
2012-09-23San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings30.1%13-24
2012-09-23St. Louis RamsatChicago Bears76.9%6-23
2012-09-23Cincinnati BengalsatWashington Redskins52.7%38-31
2012-09-23Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns51.4%24-14
2012-09-23Houston TexansatDenver Broncos44.8%31-25
2012-09-23Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys71.3%10-16
2012-09-23Philadelphia EaglesatArizona Cardinals49.1%6-27
2012-09-23Atlanta FalconsatSan Diego Chargers58.7%27-3
2012-09-23Kansas City ChiefsatNew Orleans Saints75.8%27-24
2012-09-23Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts59.7%22-17
2012-09-23New York JetsatMiami Dolphins58.1%23-20
2012-09-23Detroit LionsatTennessee Titans50.3%41-44
2012-09-23New England PatriotsatBaltimore Ravens53.0%30-31
2012-09-23Pittsburgh SteelersatOakland Raiders39.2%31-34
2012-09-24Green Bay PackersatSeattle Seahawks42.8%12-14
2012-09-27Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens86.1%16-23
2012-09-30San Francisco 49ersatNew York Jets49.5%34-0
2012-09-30Cincinnati BengalsatJacksonville Jaguars46.3%27-10
2012-09-30New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills34.2%52-28
2012-09-30Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos61.6%6-37
2012-09-30Washington RedskinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers54.0%24-22
2012-09-30Miami DolphinsatArizona Cardinals65.8%21-24
2012-09-30San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs45.9%37-20
2012-09-30New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles49.2%17-19
2012-09-30Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons79.8%28-30
2012-09-30Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions65.6%20-13
2012-09-30New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers69.1%27-28
2012-09-30Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Rams35.2%13-19
2012-09-30Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans76.1%14-38
2012-10-01Chicago BearsatDallas Cowboys56.7%34-18
2012-10-04Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams36.0%3-17
2012-10-07Chicago BearsatJacksonville Jaguars37.4%41-3
2012-10-07Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals67.8%17-13
2012-10-07Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots80.3%21-31
2012-10-07Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants85.0%27-41
2012-10-07San Diego ChargersatNew Orleans Saints54.1%24-31
2012-10-07Baltimore RavensatKansas City Chiefs31.0%9-6
2012-10-07Green Bay PackersatIndianapolis Colts27.6%27-30
2012-10-07Atlanta FalconsatWashington Redskins32.4%24-17
2012-10-07Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers60.0%14-16
2012-10-07Seattle SeahawksatCarolina Panthers52.2%16-12
2012-10-07Tennessee TitansatMinnesota Vikings63.5%7-30
2012-10-07Buffalo BillsatSan Francisco 49ers80.0%3-45
2012-10-08Houston TexansatNew York Jets41.0%23-17
2012-10-11Pittsburgh SteelersatTennessee Titans40.2%23-26
2012-10-14Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns36.7%24-34
2012-10-14Buffalo BillsatArizona Cardinals68.0%19-16
2012-10-14Kansas City ChiefsatTampa Bay Buccaneers53.6%10-38
2012-10-14Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets68.6%9-35
2012-10-14Minnesota VikingsatWashington Redskins47.1%26-38
2012-10-14Dallas CowboysatBaltimore Ravens79.2%29-31
2012-10-14St. Louis RamsatMiami Dolphins70.4%14-17
2012-10-14Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles68.4%26-23
2012-10-14Oakland RaidersatAtlanta Falcons83.4%20-23
2012-10-14Houston TexansatGreen Bay Packers53.5%24-42
2012-10-14New England PatriotsatSeattle Seahawks35.3%23-24
2012-10-14New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers63.9%26-3
2012-10-15Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers67.7%35-24
2012-10-18Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers69.5%6-13
2012-10-21Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals50.1%24-17
2012-10-21Tennessee TitansatBuffalo Bills60.7%35-34
2012-10-21Cleveland BrownsatIndianapolis Colts58.7%13-17
2012-10-21New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers38.6%35-28
2012-10-21Arizona CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings58.5%14-21
2012-10-21Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants82.2%23-27
2012-10-21Dallas CowboysatCarolina Panthers54.4%19-14
2012-10-21Jacksonville JaguarsatOakland Raiders66.1%23-26
2012-10-21New York JetsatNew England Patriots80.2%26-29
2012-10-21Green Bay PackersatSt. Louis Rams28.1%30-20
2012-10-21Baltimore RavensatHouston Texans52.9%13-43
2012-10-22Detroit LionsatChicago Bears70.0%7-13
2012-10-25Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings73.0%36-17
2012-10-28Carolina PanthersatChicago Bears80.3%22-23
2012-10-28New Orleans SaintsatDenver Broncos52.9%14-34
2012-10-28San Diego ChargersatCleveland Browns39.7%6-7
2012-10-28Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs52.6%26-16
2012-10-28Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans67.3%19-13
2012-10-28Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers74.9%12-27
2012-10-28New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys35.0%29-24
2012-10-28Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets56.9%30-9
2012-10-28Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles42.0%30-17
2012-10-28Jacksonville JaguarsatGreen Bay Packers88.2%15-24
2012-10-28Seattle SeahawksatDetroit Lions55.7%24-28
2012-10-28New England PatriotsatSt. Louis Rams16.3%45-7
2012-10-29San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals39.0%24-3
2012-11-01Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers77.2%13-31
2012-11-04Chicago BearsatTennessee Titans36.5%51-20
2012-11-04Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals47.0%31-23
2012-11-04Buffalo BillsatHouston Texans79.9%9-21
2012-11-04Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns28.8%25-15
2012-11-04Tampa Bay BuccaneersatOakland Raiders61.8%42-32
2012-11-04Arizona CardinalsatGreen Bay Packers82.6%17-31
2012-11-04Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts42.6%20-23
2012-11-04Carolina PanthersatWashington Redskins62.7%21-13
2012-11-04Dallas CowboysatAtlanta Falcons81.7%13-19
2012-11-04Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants70.3%24-20
2012-11-04Detroit LionsatJacksonville Jaguars39.1%31-14
2012-11-04Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks65.4%20-30
2012-11-05Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints64.1%13-28
2012-11-08Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars44.0%27-10
2012-11-11Houston TexansatChicago Bears56.5%13-6
2012-11-11New York GiantsatCincinnati Bengals31.5%13-31
2012-11-11Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots85.8%31-37
2012-11-11Denver BroncosatCarolina Panthers40.1%36-14
2012-11-11San Diego ChargersatTampa Bay Buccaneers52.3%24-34
2012-11-11Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles61.8%38-23
2012-11-11Tennessee TitansatMiami Dolphins74.4%37-3
2012-11-11Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints42.8%27-31
2012-11-11New York JetsatSeattle Seahawks67.0%7-28
2012-11-11Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings47.0%24-34
2012-11-11Oakland RaidersatBaltimore Ravens81.6%20-55
2012-11-11St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers86.2%24-24
2012-11-12Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers86.7%13-16
2012-11-15Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills54.8%14-19
2012-11-18Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs38.8%28-6
2012-11-18San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos72.1%23-30
2012-11-18Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys75.3%20-23
2012-11-18Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers47.9%27-21
2012-11-18Arizona CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons83.5%19-23
2012-11-18Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots84.3%24-59
2012-11-18Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins53.0%6-31
2012-11-18Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans91.6%37-43
2012-11-18New York JetsatSt. Louis Rams53.5%27-13
2012-11-18Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions36.0%24-20
2012-11-18New Orleans SaintsatOakland Raiders36.3%38-17
2012-11-18Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers56.3%13-10
2012-11-19Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers63.7%7-32
2012-11-22Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys68.9%38-31
2012-11-22New England PatriotsatNew York Jets26.8%49-19
2012-11-22Houston TexansatDetroit Lions34.2%34-31
2012-11-25San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints52.3%31-21
2012-11-25Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears73.1%10-28
2012-11-25Oakland RaidersatCincinnati Bengals74.2%10-34
2012-11-25Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts59.8%13-20
2012-11-25Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs21.9%17-9
2012-11-25Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns28.0%14-20
2012-11-25Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers38.1%24-23
2012-11-25St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals68.3%31-17
2012-11-25Baltimore RavensatSan Diego Chargers36.2%16-13
2012-11-25Seattle SeahawksatMiami Dolphins48.1%21-24
2012-11-25Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants49.3%10-38
2012-11-25Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars37.1%19-24
2012-11-26Carolina PanthersatPhiladelphia Eagles62.6%30-22
2012-11-29New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons71.1%13-23
2012-12-02San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams23.7%13-16
2012-12-02Seattle SeahawksatChicago Bears68.1%23-17
2012-12-02Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers52.0%20-13
2012-12-02Jacksonville JaguarsatBuffalo Bills72.8%18-34
2012-12-02Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDenver Broncos73.3%23-31
2012-12-02Cleveland BrownsatOakland Raiders56.6%20-17
2012-12-02Arizona CardinalsatNew York Jets66.4%6-7
2012-12-02Carolina PanthersatKansas City Chiefs43.5%21-27
2012-12-02Indianapolis ColtsatDetroit Lions59.5%35-33
2012-12-02Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys70.7%33-38
2012-12-02New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins25.3%23-16
2012-12-02Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers81.4%14-23
2012-12-02Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens71.3%23-20
2012-12-02Houston TexansatTennessee Titans27.8%24-10
2012-12-03New York GiantsatWashington Redskins35.3%16-17
2012-12-06Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders24.1%26-13
2012-12-09Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings42.5%14-21
2012-12-09Dallas CowboysatCincinnati Bengals67.4%20-19
2012-12-09St. Louis RamsatBuffalo Bills62.5%15-12
2012-12-09Kansas City ChiefsatCleveland Browns69.6%7-30
2012-12-09Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers73.8%23-21
2012-12-09Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks78.1%0-58
2012-12-09San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers75.8%34-24
2012-12-09Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts67.3%23-27
2012-12-09Baltimore RavensatWashington Redskins36.4%28-31
2012-12-09Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthersshock22.7%20-30
2012-12-09New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giants68.0%27-52
2012-12-09New York JetsatJacksonville Jaguars40.1%17-10
2012-12-09Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers80.6%20-27
2012-12-09Miami DolphinsatSan Francisco 49ers81.4%13-27
2012-12-10Houston TexansatNew England Patriots65.3%14-42
2012-12-13Cincinnati BengalsatPhiladelphia Eagles39.2%34-13
2012-12-16San Francisco 49ersatNew England Patriots71.5%41-34
2012-12-16Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears42.1%21-13
2012-12-16Seattle SeahawksatBuffalo Bills41.0%50-17
2012-12-16Denver BroncosatBaltimore Ravens56.5%34-17
2012-12-16Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns50.4%38-21
2012-12-16Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints67.7%0-41
2012-12-16Detroit LionsatArizona Cardinals47.7%10-38
2012-12-16Carolina PanthersatSan Diego Chargers66.3%31-7
2012-12-16Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders63.9%0-15
2012-12-16Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans79.1%17-29
2012-12-16Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys52.2%24-27
2012-12-16Jacksonville JaguarsatMiami Dolphins77.3%3-24
2012-12-16New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons57.9%0-34
2012-12-16Minnesota VikingsatSt. Louis Rams56.9%36-22
2012-12-17New York JetsatTennessee Titans52.0%10-14
2012-12-22Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions26.0%31-18
2012-12-23San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawksstarters rested44.9%13-42
2012-12-23Chicago BearsatArizona Cardinals44.3%28-13
2012-12-23Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers55.2%13-10
2012-12-23Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins66.8%10-24
2012-12-23Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos87.3%12-34
2012-12-23St. Louis RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers64.6%28-13
2012-12-23San Diego ChargersatNew York Jetsstarters rested59.9%27-17
2012-12-23Indianapolis ColtsatKansas City Chiefs32.6%20-13
2012-12-23Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles38.2%27-20
2012-12-23New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys51.7%34-31
2012-12-23New York GiantsatBaltimore Ravens54.7%14-33
2012-12-23New England PatriotsatJacksonville Jaguars10.8%23-16
2012-12-23Tennessee TitansatGreen Bay Packers85.1%7-55
2012-12-23Oakland RaidersatCarolina Panthers74.0%6-17
2012-12-23Minnesota VikingsatHouston Texansshock80.3%23-6
2012-12-30Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions40.6%26-24
2012-12-30Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals54.4%17-23
2012-12-30New York JetsatBuffalo Bills54.4%9-28
2012-12-30Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos93.4%3-38
2012-12-30Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers74.7%10-24
2012-12-30Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falconsshock86.8%22-17
2012-12-30Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers74.5%21-24
2012-12-30Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts42.0%16-28
2012-12-30Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins64.9%18-28
2012-12-30Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots85.7%0-28
2012-12-30Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants84.6%7-42
2012-12-30Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans76.3%20-38
2012-12-30Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings40.2%34-37
2012-12-30Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints69.7%44-38
2012-12-30St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawks80.0%13-20
2012-12-30Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ersstarters rested87.2%13-27
2013-01-05Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Texans58.7%13-19
2013-01-05Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers72.0%10-24
2013-01-06Indianapolis ColtsatBaltimore Ravens67.6%9-24
2013-01-06Seattle SeahawksatWashington Redskins47.6%24-14
2013-01-12Baltimore RavensatDenver Broncos68.6%38-35
2013-01-12Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers56.6%31-45
2013-01-13Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons57.0%28-30
2013-01-13Houston TexansatNew England Patriots75.1%28-41
2013-01-20San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons54.9%28-24
2013-01-20Baltimore RavensatNew England Patriots73.7%28-13
2013-02-03San Francisco 49ersvsBaltimore Ravens46.6%31-34

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.