The expectation ledger

The 2011 season, against expectation

Every game of 2011scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 20102012→
Games
267
Model Brier
0.2131
Market Brier
0.2065
Longest odds beaten
14.1%
Carolina Panthers

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2011.

1
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
13
exp 9.48
2
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
13
exp 10.25
3
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
15
exp 12.69
4
Detroit Lions
Detroit
10
exp 7.80
5
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
8
exp 6.03
6
Denver Broncos
Denver
8
exp 6.04
7
New England Patriots
Boston
13
exp 11.56
8
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
12
exp 10.67
9
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
12
exp 11.06
10
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
9
exp 8.15
11
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
9
exp 8.17
12
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
7
exp 6.20
Show all 32 rows
13
Houston Texans
Houston
10
exp 9.29
14
New York Giants
New York
9
exp 8.31
15
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
6
exp 5.52
16
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
10
exp 9.57
17
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
8
exp 7.77
18
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
7
exp 7.04
19
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
8
exp 8.45
20
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
8
exp 8.55
21
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
8
exp 8.70
22
Miami Dolphins
Miami
6
exp 6.77
23
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
6
exp 6.87
24
Chicago Bears
Chicago
8
exp 8.91
25
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
5
exp 6.43
26
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
5
exp 6.46
27
New York Jets
New York
8
exp 9.63
28
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
4
exp 5.80
29
St. Louis Rams
St. Louis
2
exp 4.62
30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
4
exp 6.87
31
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
3
exp 6.09
32
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
2
exp 6.27

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2011 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2011-09-08New Orleans SaintsatGreen Bay Packers72.0%34-42
2011-09-11Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears55.6%12-30
2011-09-11Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns58.5%27-17
2011-09-11Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs64.2%41-7
2011-09-11Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers68.8%27-20
2011-09-11Carolina PanthersatArizona Cardinals59.5%21-28
2011-09-11Minnesota VikingsatSan Diego Chargers67.6%17-24
2011-09-11Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans46.5%7-34
2011-09-11New York GiantsatWashington Redskins44.7%14-28
2011-09-11Dallas CowboysatNew York Jets71.3%24-27
2011-09-11Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Rams40.0%31-13
2011-09-11Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars59.6%14-16
2011-09-11Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens60.0%7-35
2011-09-11Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers62.5%17-33
2011-09-12Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos42.2%23-20
2011-09-12New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins36.1%38-24
2011-09-18Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints54.9%13-30
2011-09-18Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos44.5%22-24
2011-09-18Oakland RaidersatBuffalo Bills55.0%35-38
2011-09-18Cleveland BrownsatIndianapolis Colts73.9%27-19
2011-09-18Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings56.8%24-20
2011-09-18Arizona CardinalsatWashington Redskins67.0%21-22
2011-09-18San Diego ChargersatNew England Patriots71.8%21-35
2011-09-18Kansas City ChiefsatDetroit Lions66.3%3-48
2011-09-18Houston TexansatMiami Dolphins51.5%23-13
2011-09-18Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons56.6%31-35
2011-09-18Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Jets75.1%3-32
2011-09-18Green Bay PackersatCarolina Panthers20.6%30-23
2011-09-18Baltimore RavensatTennessee Titans34.7%13-26
2011-09-18Seattle SeahawksatPittsburgh Steelers78.5%0-24
2011-09-18Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers56.9%27-24
2011-09-19St. Louis RamsatNew York Giants73.7%16-28
2011-09-25San Francisco 49ersatCincinnati Bengals58.8%13-8
2011-09-25Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears41.4%27-17
2011-09-25New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills34.6%31-34
2011-09-25Denver BroncosatTennessee Titans73.5%14-17
2011-09-25Miami DolphinsatCleveland Browns61.5%16-17
2011-09-25Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers51.0%13-16
2011-09-25Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks59.8%10-13
2011-09-25Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers77.1%17-20
2011-09-25Pittsburgh SteelersatIndianapolis Colts45.4%23-20
2011-09-25New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles64.8%29-16
2011-09-25Jacksonville JaguarsatCarolina Panthers44.8%10-16
2011-09-25New York JetsatOakland Raiders42.2%24-34
2011-09-25Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings52.3%26-23
2011-09-25Baltimore RavensatSt. Louis Rams29.0%37-7
2011-09-25Houston TexansatNew Orleans Saints64.3%33-40
2011-09-26Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys65.6%16-18
2011-10-02San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles63.9%24-23
2011-10-02Carolina PanthersatChicago Bears77.3%29-34
2011-10-02Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals48.6%20-23
2011-10-02Denver BroncosatGreen Bay Packers90.1%23-49
2011-10-02Tennessee TitansatCleveland Browns52.1%31-13
2011-10-02New York GiantsatArizona Cardinals36.3%31-27
2011-10-02Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers75.0%16-26
2011-10-02Minnesota VikingsatKansas City Chiefs53.0%17-22
2011-10-02Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Rams44.8%17-10
2011-10-02Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys59.9%34-30
2011-10-02Atlanta FalconsatSeattle Seahawks39.8%30-28
2011-10-02New Orleans SaintsatJacksonville Jaguars38.7%23-10
2011-10-02New York JetsatBaltimore Ravens62.5%17-34
2011-10-02New England PatriotsatOakland Raiders41.8%31-19
2011-10-02Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Texans47.8%10-17
2011-10-03Indianapolis ColtsatTampa Bay Buccaneers64.8%17-24
2011-10-09Cincinnati BengalsatJacksonville Jaguars54.6%30-20
2011-10-09Philadelphia EaglesatBuffalo Bills57.7%24-31
2011-10-09San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos32.6%29-24
2011-10-09Arizona CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings65.1%10-34
2011-10-09Kansas City ChiefsatIndianapolis Colts66.6%28-24
2011-10-09Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons39.2%25-14
2011-10-09Seattle SeahawksatNew York Giants78.2%36-25
2011-10-09New York JetsatNew England Patriots72.3%21-30
2011-10-09New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers28.0%30-27
2011-10-09Oakland RaidersatHouston Texans63.9%25-20
2011-10-09Tennessee TitansatPittsburgh Steelers65.5%17-38
2011-10-09Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers53.7%3-48
2011-10-10Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions58.8%13-24
2011-10-16San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions62.7%25-19
2011-10-16Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears69.3%10-39
2011-10-16Indianapolis ColtsatCincinnati Bengals64.4%17-27
2011-10-16Buffalo BillsatNew York Giants59.5%24-27
2011-10-16Cleveland BrownsatOakland Raiders73.4%17-24
2011-10-16New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers43.1%20-26
2011-10-16Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins56.9%20-13
2011-10-16Dallas CowboysatNew England Patriots80.7%16-20
2011-10-16Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons79.7%17-31
2011-10-16Jacksonville JaguarsatPittsburgh Steelers82.5%13-17
2011-10-16St. Louis RamsatGreen Bay Packers92.8%3-24
2011-10-16Houston TexansatBaltimore Ravens74.2%14-29
2011-10-17Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets77.0%6-24
2011-10-23Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers47.6%24-18
2011-10-23Denver BroncosatMiami Dolphins65.0%18-15
2011-10-23Seattle SeahawksatCleveland Browns53.8%3-6
2011-10-23Pittsburgh SteelersatArizona Cardinals25.8%32-20
2011-10-23San Diego ChargersatNew York Jets59.1%21-27
2011-10-23Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders73.2%28-0
2011-10-23Indianapolis ColtsatNew Orleans Saints78.9%7-62
2011-10-23Washington RedskinsatCarolina Panthers45.8%20-33
2011-10-23St. Louis RamsatDallas Cowboys78.4%7-34
2011-10-23Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions56.4%23-16
2011-10-23Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings20.5%33-27
2011-10-23Houston TexansatTennessee Titans60.3%41-7
2011-10-24Baltimore RavensatJacksonville Jaguars24.5%7-12
2011-10-30Cincinnati BengalsatSeattle Seahawks50.6%34-12
2011-10-30Washington RedskinsatBuffalo Bills70.0%0-23
2011-10-30Detroit LionsatDenver Broncos41.1%45-10
2011-10-30Arizona CardinalsatBaltimore Ravens87.7%27-30
2011-10-30Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans66.9%10-27
2011-10-30Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles60.6%7-34
2011-10-30Miami DolphinsatNew York Giants77.2%17-20
2011-10-30Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans75.4%14-24
2011-10-30Minnesota VikingsatCarolina Panthers55.3%24-21
2011-10-30New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers48.8%17-25
2011-10-30New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Rams22.2%21-31
2011-10-30Cleveland BrownsatSan Francisco 49ers75.8%10-20
2011-10-31San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs49.1%20-23
2011-11-06San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins36.6%19-11
2011-11-06Cincinnati BengalsatTennessee Titans53.2%24-17
2011-11-06New York JetsatBuffalo Bills50.3%27-11
2011-11-06Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders76.4%38-24
2011-11-06Cleveland BrownsatHouston Texans77.3%12-30
2011-11-06Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints67.3%16-27
2011-11-06St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals56.0%13-19
2011-11-06Green Bay PackersatSan Diego Chargers33.1%45-38
2011-11-06Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs74.8%31-3
2011-11-06Atlanta FalconsatIndianapolis Colts33.8%31-7
2011-11-06Seattle SeahawksatDallas Cowboys69.5%13-23
2011-11-06New York GiantsatNew England Patriots75.6%24-20
2011-11-06Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers61.5%23-20
2011-11-07Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles57.4%30-24
2011-11-10Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers70.6%24-17
2011-11-13Detroit LionsatChicago Bears65.3%13-37
2011-11-13Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals49.3%24-17
2011-11-13Buffalo BillsatDallas Cowboys59.4%7-44
2011-11-13Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs66.0%17-10
2011-11-13St. Louis RamsatCleveland Browns66.3%13-12
2011-11-13Houston TexansatTampa Bay Buccaneers47.3%37-9
2011-11-13Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eaglesshock78.8%21-17
2011-11-13Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts54.1%17-3
2011-11-13Washington RedskinsatMiami Dolphins64.8%9-20
2011-11-13New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons61.4%26-23
2011-11-13New England PatriotsatNew York Jets55.7%37-16
2011-11-13Tennessee TitansatCarolina Panthers46.2%30-3
2011-11-13Baltimore RavensatSeattle Seahawks25.6%17-22
2011-11-13New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers61.9%20-27
2011-11-14Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers89.8%7-45
2011-11-17New York JetsatDenver Broncos37.2%13-17
2011-11-20San Diego ChargersatChicago Bears72.4%20-31
2011-11-20Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens69.8%24-31
2011-11-20Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins56.7%8-35
2011-11-20Jacksonville JaguarsatCleveland Browns52.5%10-14
2011-11-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers88.7%26-35
2011-11-20Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins37.8%27-24
2011-11-20Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants66.6%17-10
2011-11-20Tennessee TitansatAtlanta Falcons70.2%17-23
2011-11-20Carolina PanthersatDetroit Lions79.6%35-49
2011-11-20Oakland RaidersatMinnesota Vikings52.1%27-21
2011-11-20Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Rams50.3%24-7
2011-11-20Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers83.1%7-23
2011-11-21Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots86.6%3-34
2011-11-24San Francisco 49ersatBaltimore Ravens61.7%6-16
2011-11-24Miami DolphinsatDallas Cowboys67.0%19-20
2011-11-24Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions27.8%27-15
2011-11-27Chicago BearsatOakland Raiders42.4%20-25
2011-11-27Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals73.6%20-23
2011-11-27Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets74.5%24-28
2011-11-27Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers64.7%16-13
2011-11-27Tampa Bay BuccaneersatTennessee Titans63.5%17-23
2011-11-27Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams52.2%23-20
2011-11-27Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs27.5%13-9
2011-11-27Carolina PanthersatIndianapolis Colts60.7%27-19
2011-11-27Washington RedskinsatSeattle Seahawks70.3%23-17
2011-11-27New England PatriotsatPhiladelphia Eagles36.4%38-20
2011-11-27Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons80.8%14-24
2011-11-27Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars33.9%20-13
2011-11-28New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints69.6%24-49
2011-12-01Philadelphia EaglesatSeattle Seahawks47.6%14-31
2011-12-04Kansas City ChiefsatChicago Bearsshock81.5%10-3
2011-12-04Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers74.8%7-35
2011-12-04Tennessee TitansatBuffalo Bills49.9%23-17
2011-12-04Denver BroncosatMinnesota Vikings49.5%35-32
2011-12-04Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns26.5%24-10
2011-12-04Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers69.6%38-19
2011-12-04Dallas CowboysatArizona Cardinals38.3%13-19
2011-12-04Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots93.2%24-31
2011-12-04New York JetsatWashington Redskins34.8%34-19
2011-12-04Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins53.1%14-34
2011-12-04Atlanta FalconsatHouston Texans62.1%10-17
2011-12-04Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants23.7%38-35
2011-12-04Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints72.7%17-31
2011-12-04St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers87.6%0-26
2011-12-05San Diego ChargersatJacksonville Jaguars51.1%38-14
2011-12-08Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers87.9%3-14
2011-12-11San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals34.3%19-21
2011-12-11Chicago BearsatDenver Broncos48.4%10-13
2011-12-11Houston TexansatCincinnati Bengals41.8%20-19
2011-12-11Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers70.8%10-37
2011-12-11Tampa Bay BuccaneersatJacksonville Jaguars56.8%14-41
2011-12-11Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets77.2%10-37
2011-12-11Indianapolis ColtsatBaltimore Ravens91.2%10-24
2011-12-11New England PatriotsatWashington Redskins17.7%34-27
2011-12-11New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys62.2%37-34
2011-12-11Philadelphia EaglesatMiami Dolphins63.4%26-10
2011-12-11Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers34.4%31-23
2011-12-11Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions73.7%28-34
2011-12-11Oakland RaidersatGreen Bay Packers88.3%16-46
2011-12-11New Orleans SaintsatTennessee Titans43.1%22-17
2011-12-12St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawks76.9%13-30
2011-12-15Jacksonville JaguarsatAtlanta Falcons81.4%14-41
2011-12-17Dallas CowboysatTampa Bay Buccaneers40.6%31-15
2011-12-18Seattle SeahawksatChicago Bears69.4%38-14
2011-12-18Cincinnati BengalsatSt. Louis Rams30.2%20-13
2011-12-18Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills49.3%30-23
2011-12-18New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos29.0%41-23
2011-12-18Cleveland BrownsatArizona Cardinals66.2%17-20
2011-12-18Baltimore RavensatSan Diego Chargers39.4%14-34
2011-12-18Green Bay PackersatKansas City Chiefsshock15.8%14-19
2011-12-18Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts32.4%13-27
2011-12-18Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants76.8%23-10
2011-12-18New York JetsatPhiladelphia Eagles46.2%19-45
2011-12-18Detroit LionsatOakland Raiders55.8%28-27
2011-12-18Carolina PanthersatHouston Texansshock85.9%28-13
2011-12-18New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings23.3%42-20
2011-12-19Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Francisco 49ers46.3%3-20
2011-12-22Houston TexansatIndianapolis Coltsstarters rested27.3%16-19
2011-12-24San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks44.8%19-17
2011-12-24Arizona CardinalsatCincinnati Bengals69.1%16-23
2011-12-24Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills44.5%14-40
2011-12-24Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens85.9%14-20
2011-12-24Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers72.3%16-48
2011-12-24San Diego ChargersatDetroit Lions53.2%10-38
2011-12-24Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefsstarters rested57.3%16-13
2011-12-24Minnesota VikingsatWashington Redskins66.4%33-26
2011-12-24Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys55.8%20-7
2011-12-24Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots85.7%24-27
2011-12-24New York GiantsatNew York Jets71.8%29-14
2011-12-24Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans68.3%17-23
2011-12-24St. Louis RamsatPittsburgh Steelersstarters rested91.9%0-27
2011-12-25Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers86.2%21-35
2011-12-26Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints66.1%16-45
2012-01-01San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams16.8%34-27
2012-01-01Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikingsstarters rested45.4%17-13
2012-01-01Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals45.5%24-16
2012-01-01Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots90.3%21-49
2012-01-01Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos58.7%7-3
2012-01-01Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns22.8%13-9
2012-01-01Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons86.6%24-45
2012-01-01Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals49.1%20-23
2012-01-01San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders54.2%38-26
2012-01-01Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars61.0%13-19
2012-01-01Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles81.3%10-34
2012-01-01Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants62.0%14-31
2012-01-01New York JetsatMiami Dolphins53.6%17-19
2012-01-01Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packersstarters rested82.7%41-45
2012-01-01Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints83.5%17-45
2012-01-01Tennessee TitansatHouston Texansstarters rested70.6%23-22
2012-01-07Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Texans64.9%10-31
2012-01-07Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints77.5%28-45
2012-01-08Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos27.8%23-29
2012-01-08Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants50.5%2-24
2012-01-14Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots88.4%10-45
2012-01-14New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers48.6%32-36
2012-01-15New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packersshock81.8%37-20
2012-01-15Houston TexansatBaltimore Ravens69.0%13-20
2012-01-22Baltimore RavensatNew England Patriots70.8%20-23
2012-01-22New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers63.1%20-17
2012-02-05New England PatriotsvsNew York Giants33.5%17-21

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.