The expectation ledger

The 2010 season, against expectation

Every game of 2010scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 20092011→
Games
267
Model Brier
0.2333
Market Brier
0.2207
Longest odds beaten
14.9%
Cleveland Browns

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2010.

1
New England Patriots
Boston
14
exp 10.12
2
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
13
exp 10.05
3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
10
exp 7.37
4
Chicago Bears
Chicago
11
exp 8.58
5
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
12
exp 9.93
6
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
10
exp 8.07
7
Detroit Lions
Detroit
6
exp 4.08
8
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
12
exp 10.21
9
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
8
exp 6.45
10
New York Giants
New York
10
exp 8.69
11
St. Louis Rams
St. Louis
7
exp 5.86
12
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
8
exp 7.17
Show all 32 rows
13
New York Jets
New York
11
exp 10.32
14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
7
exp 6.53
15
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
11
exp 10.72
16
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
10
exp 9.77
17
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
10
exp 9.83
18
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
6
exp 6.09
19
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
10
exp 10.17
20
Miami Dolphins
Miami
7
exp 7.20
21
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
5
exp 6.24
22
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
6
exp 7.38
23
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
9
exp 10.43
24
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
4
exp 5.47
25
Houston Texans
Houston
6
exp 7.86
26
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
6
exp 7.90
27
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
4
exp 6.05
28
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
6
exp 8.07
29
Denver Broncos
Denver
4
exp 6.53
30
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
6
exp 8.61
31
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
5
exp 8.07
32
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
2
exp 6.19

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2010 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2010-09-09Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints66.1%9-14
2010-09-12San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks45.4%6-31
2010-09-12Detroit LionsatChicago Bears79.1%14-19
2010-09-12Cincinnati BengalsatNew England Patriots68.2%24-38
2010-09-12Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills58.4%15-10
2010-09-12Denver BroncosatJacksonville Jaguars55.6%17-24
2010-09-12Cleveland BrownsatTampa Bay Buccaneers58.2%14-17
2010-09-12Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams29.4%17-13
2010-09-12Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans50.4%24-34
2010-09-12Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins36.4%7-13
2010-09-12Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles60.1%27-20
2010-09-12Atlanta FalconsatPittsburgh Steelers62.5%9-15
2010-09-12Carolina PanthersatNew York Giants50.0%18-31
2010-09-12Oakland RaidersatTennessee Titans77.7%13-38
2010-09-13San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs29.8%14-21
2010-09-13Baltimore RavensatNew York Jets60.2%10-9
2010-09-19Chicago BearsatDallas Cowboys70.2%27-20
2010-09-19Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals44.2%10-15
2010-09-19Buffalo BillsatGreen Bay Packers76.8%7-34
2010-09-19Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos60.9%14-31
2010-09-19Kansas City ChiefsatCleveland Browns58.4%16-14
2010-09-19Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers71.9%20-7
2010-09-19Arizona CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons56.7%7-41
2010-09-19Jacksonville JaguarsatSan Diego Chargers74.7%13-38
2010-09-19New York GiantsatIndianapolis Colts67.1%14-38
2010-09-19Houston TexansatWashington Redskins43.0%30-27
2010-09-19Miami DolphinsatMinnesota Vikings68.3%14-10
2010-09-19Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lions25.8%35-32
2010-09-19New England PatriotsatNew York Jets58.6%14-28
2010-09-19St. Louis RamsatOakland Raiders67.6%14-16
2010-09-19Pittsburgh SteelersatTennessee Titans55.3%19-11
2010-09-20New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers33.5%25-22
2010-09-26San Francisco 49ersatKansas City Chiefs58.0%10-31
2010-09-26Cincinnati BengalsatCarolina Panthers58.4%20-7
2010-09-26Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots74.4%30-38
2010-09-26Indianapolis ColtsatDenver Broncos40.3%27-13
2010-09-26Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens78.1%17-24
2010-09-26Pittsburgh SteelersatTampa Bay Buccaneers42.1%38-13
2010-09-26Oakland RaidersatArizona Cardinals76.0%23-24
2010-09-26San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks33.8%20-27
2010-09-26Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Rams38.9%16-30
2010-09-26Dallas CowboysatHouston Texans65.5%27-13
2010-09-26New York JetsatMiami Dolphins48.9%31-23
2010-09-26Philadelphia EaglesatJacksonville Jaguars43.0%28-3
2010-09-26Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints72.2%27-24
2010-09-26Tennessee TitansatNew York Giants56.8%29-10
2010-09-26Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings86.1%10-24
2010-09-27Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears45.3%17-20
2010-10-03San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons77.3%14-16
2010-10-03Chicago BearsatNew York Giants50.9%3-17
2010-10-03Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns40.6%20-23
2010-10-03New York JetsatBuffalo Bills32.6%38-14
2010-10-03Denver BroncosatTennessee Titans73.1%26-20
2010-10-03Arizona CardinalsatSan Diego Chargers66.4%10-41
2010-10-03Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars30.4%28-31
2010-10-03Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eaglesshock80.0%17-12
2010-10-03Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers89.4%26-28
2010-10-03Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints79.3%14-16
2010-10-03Houston TexansatOakland Raiders35.3%31-24
2010-10-03Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Rams43.6%3-20
2010-10-03Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers66.1%17-14
2010-10-04New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins49.9%41-14
2010-10-10Chicago BearsatCarolina Panthers53.4%23-6
2010-10-10Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCincinnati Bengals67.7%24-21
2010-10-10Jacksonville JaguarsatBuffalo Bills55.4%36-26
2010-10-10Denver BroncosatBaltimore Ravens73.8%17-31
2010-10-10Atlanta FalconsatCleveland Browns36.6%20-10
2010-10-10New Orleans SaintsatArizona Cardinals38.8%20-30
2010-10-10San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders27.8%27-35
2010-10-10Kansas City ChiefsatIndianapolis Colts76.0%9-19
2010-10-10Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins37.2%13-16
2010-10-10Tennessee TitansatDallas Cowboys65.3%34-27
2010-10-10New York GiantsatHouston Texans67.3%34-10
2010-10-10St. Louis RamsatDetroit Lions47.9%6-44
2010-10-10Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers40.7%27-24
2010-10-11Minnesota VikingsatNew York Jets70.4%20-29
2010-10-17Seattle SeahawksatChicago Bears74.7%23-20
2010-10-17New York JetsatDenver Broncos33.3%24-20
2010-10-17Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers82.5%10-28
2010-10-17New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers40.3%31-6
2010-10-17San Diego ChargersatSt. Louis Rams28.3%17-20
2010-10-17Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Texans66.3%31-35
2010-10-17Indianapolis ColtsatWashington Redskins37.3%27-24
2010-10-17Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings59.1%21-24
2010-10-17Miami DolphinsatGreen Bay Packers73.0%23-20
2010-10-17Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles54.6%17-31
2010-10-17Detroit LionsatNew York Giants83.5%20-28
2010-10-17Baltimore RavensatNew England Patriots58.7%20-23
2010-10-17Oakland RaidersatSan Francisco 49ers61.8%9-17
2010-10-18Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars46.2%30-3
2010-10-24San Francisco 49ersatCarolina Panthers59.5%20-23
2010-10-24Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears67.4%17-14
2010-10-24Cincinnati BengalsatAtlanta Falcons69.1%32-39
2010-10-24Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Ravens83.3%34-37
2010-10-24Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos69.7%59-14
2010-10-24Cleveland BrownsatNew Orleans Saintsshock85.1%30-17
2010-10-24St. Louis RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers71.8%17-18
2010-10-24Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks46.5%10-22
2010-10-24New England PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers47.7%23-20
2010-10-24Jacksonville JaguarsatKansas City Chiefs61.3%20-42
2010-10-24Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins41.7%23-22
2010-10-24Philadelphia EaglesatTennessee Titans58.9%19-37
2010-10-24Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers59.9%24-28
2010-10-25New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys56.8%41-35
2010-10-31Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals58.8%22-14
2010-10-31Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs71.3%10-13
2010-10-31Tampa Bay BuccaneersatArizona Cardinals65.2%38-35
2010-10-31Tennessee TitansatSan Diego Chargers46.7%25-33
2010-10-31Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions38.0%25-37
2010-10-31Jacksonville JaguarsatDallas Cowboys72.0%35-17
2010-10-31Green Bay PackersatNew York Jets71.3%9-0
2010-10-31Carolina PanthersatSt. Louis Rams45.9%10-20
2010-10-31Minnesota VikingsatNew England Patriots70.6%18-28
2010-10-31Seattle SeahawksatOakland Raiders55.5%3-33
2010-10-31Pittsburgh SteelersatNew Orleans Saints53.2%10-20
2010-10-31Denver BroncosatSan Francisco 49ers52.5%16-24
2010-11-01Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts72.5%17-30
2010-11-07Chicago BearsatBuffalo Bills42.1%22-19
2010-11-07New England PatriotsatCleveland Browns32.1%14-34
2010-11-07Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons73.7%21-27
2010-11-07Arizona CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings66.1%24-27
2010-11-07San Diego ChargersatHouston Texans54.1%29-23
2010-11-07Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders57.2%20-23
2010-11-07Indianapolis ColtsatPhiladelphia Eagles48.7%24-26
2010-11-07Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers76.7%7-45
2010-11-07Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Ravens70.5%10-26
2010-11-07New York GiantsatSeattle Seahawks39.3%41-7
2010-11-07New York JetsatDetroit Lions23.0%23-20
2010-11-07New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers33.0%34-3
2010-11-08Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals39.1%27-21
2010-11-11Baltimore RavensatAtlanta Falcons56.1%21-26
2010-11-14Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears54.5%13-27
2010-11-14Cincinnati BengalsatIndianapolis Colts80.7%17-23
2010-11-14Detroit LionsatBuffalo Bills61.0%12-14
2010-11-14Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos46.6%29-49
2010-11-14New York JetsatCleveland Browns38.9%26-20
2010-11-14Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers68.3%16-31
2010-11-14Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals67.7%36-18
2010-11-14Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants77.6%33-20
2010-11-14Tennessee TitansatMiami Dolphins46.9%17-29
2010-11-14Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars54.9%24-31
2010-11-14New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers61.7%39-26
2010-11-14St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers67.8%20-23
2010-11-15Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins39.5%59-28
2010-11-18Chicago BearsatMiami Dolphins59.2%16-0
2010-11-21Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals68.4%49-31
2010-11-21Cleveland BrownsatJacksonville Jaguars59.1%20-24
2010-11-21Arizona CardinalsatKansas City Chiefs60.6%13-31
2010-11-21Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots58.9%28-31
2010-11-21Washington RedskinsatTennessee Titans77.3%19-16
2010-11-21Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys78.0%19-35
2010-11-21New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles65.8%17-27
2010-11-21Atlanta FalconsatSt. Louis Rams26.2%34-17
2010-11-21Houston TexansatNew York Jets80.4%27-30
2010-11-21Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings43.7%31-3
2010-11-21Baltimore RavensatCarolina Panthers28.4%37-13
2010-11-21Oakland RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers72.7%3-35
2010-11-21Seattle SeahawksatNew Orleans Saints80.1%19-34
2010-11-21Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers54.8%21-0
2010-11-22Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers77.9%14-35
2010-11-25Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets86.6%10-26
2010-11-25New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys40.9%30-27
2010-11-25New England PatriotsatDetroit Lions19.2%45-24
2010-11-28Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears51.2%26-31
2010-11-28Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills33.0%19-16
2010-11-28St. Louis RamsatDenver Broncos65.8%36-33
2010-11-28Carolina PanthersatCleveland Browns72.5%23-24
2010-11-28Tampa Bay BuccaneersatBaltimore Ravens72.8%10-17
2010-11-28San Diego ChargersatIndianapolis Colts65.2%36-14
2010-11-28Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks56.4%42-24
2010-11-28Minnesota VikingsatWashington Redskins52.3%17-13
2010-11-28Miami DolphinsatOakland Raiders54.5%33-17
2010-11-28Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons55.5%17-20
2010-11-28Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Giants66.1%20-24
2010-11-28Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans49.1%0-20
2010-11-29San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals58.0%27-6
2010-12-02Houston TexansatPhiladelphia Eagles72.8%24-34
2010-12-05San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers81.2%16-34
2010-12-05Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions24.3%24-20
2010-12-05New Orleans SaintsatCincinnati Bengals24.9%34-30
2010-12-05Buffalo BillsatMinnesota Vikings71.9%14-38
2010-12-05Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs73.3%6-10
2010-12-05Cleveland BrownsatMiami Dolphins66.9%13-10
2010-12-05Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers40.2%28-24
2010-12-05St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals58.7%19-6
2010-12-05Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargersshock81.7%28-13
2010-12-05Dallas CowboysatIndianapolis Colts70.5%38-35
2010-12-05Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants75.6%7-31
2010-12-05Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans62.9%17-6
2010-12-05Carolina PanthersatSeattle Seahawks65.6%14-31
2010-12-05Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens62.2%13-10
2010-12-06New York JetsatNew England Patriots58.3%3-45
2010-12-09Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans46.7%30-28
2010-12-12New England PatriotsatChicago Bears45.3%36-7
2010-12-12Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers85.6%7-23
2010-12-12Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills44.9%6-13
2010-12-12Denver BroncosatArizona Cardinals53.8%13-43
2010-12-12Tampa Bay BuccaneersatWashington Redskins46.9%17-16
2010-12-12Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers68.7%0-31
2010-12-12Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys45.3%30-27
2010-12-12Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets75.0%10-6
2010-12-12Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers19.5%31-10
2010-12-12Oakland RaidersatJacksonville Jaguars63.5%31-38
2010-12-12Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lionsshock17.2%3-7
2010-12-12St. Louis RamsatNew Orleans Saints86.0%13-31
2010-12-12Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers61.6%21-40
2010-12-13New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings43.5%21-3
2010-12-13Baltimore RavensatHouston Texans41.0%34-28
2010-12-16San Francisco 49ersatSan Diego Chargers75.4%7-34
2010-12-19Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals46.5%17-19
2010-12-19Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins74.5%17-14
2010-12-19Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders74.7%23-39
2010-12-19Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers78.1%23-20
2010-12-19Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers53.6%12-19
2010-12-19Kansas City ChiefsatSt. Louis Rams47.3%27-13
2010-12-19Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts65.3%24-34
2010-12-19Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys72.8%30-33
2010-12-19Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants54.0%38-31
2010-12-19Atlanta FalconsatSeattle Seahawks24.6%34-18
2010-12-19New York JetsatPittsburgh Steelers63.3%22-17
2010-12-19Green Bay PackersatNew England Patriots71.7%27-31
2010-12-19New Orleans SaintsatBaltimore Ravens54.6%24-30
2010-12-19Houston TexansatTennessee Titans58.4%17-31
2010-12-20Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings50.2%40-14
2010-12-23Carolina PanthersatPittsburgh Steelers86.9%3-27
2010-12-25Dallas CowboysatArizona Cardinals36.2%26-27
2010-12-26San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Ramsstarters rested48.3%17-25
2010-12-26New York JetsatChicago Bears53.9%34-38
2010-12-26San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals29.0%20-34
2010-12-26New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills21.4%34-3
2010-12-26Houston TexansatDenver Broncos42.5%23-24
2010-12-26Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns32.3%20-10
2010-12-26Seattle SeahawksatTampa Bay Buccaneers70.3%15-38
2010-12-26Tennessee TitansatKansas City Chiefs62.2%14-34
2010-12-26Indianapolis ColtsatOakland Raiders43.9%31-26
2010-12-26Washington RedskinsatJacksonville Jaguars74.3%20-17
2010-12-26Detroit LionsatMiami Dolphins76.9%34-27
2010-12-26New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers65.1%17-45
2010-12-27New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons63.3%17-14
2010-12-28Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eaglesshock81.2%24-14
2011-01-02Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers63.0%3-10
2011-01-02Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens84.7%7-13
2011-01-02Buffalo BillsatNew York Jetsstarters rested81.6%7-38
2011-01-02San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos28.1%33-28
2011-01-02Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns34.0%41-9
2011-01-02Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints79.6%23-13
2011-01-02Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs67.8%31-10
2011-01-02Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts76.5%20-23
2011-01-02New York GiantsatWashington Redskins40.6%17-14
2011-01-02Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eaglesstarters rested72.5%14-13
2011-01-02Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots86.9%7-38
2011-01-02Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons90.0%10-31
2011-01-02Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans52.3%17-34
2011-01-02Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lionsstarters rested44.5%13-20
2011-01-02St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawksstarters rested56.0%6-16
2011-01-02Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers68.2%7-38
2011-01-08New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts56.9%17-16
2011-01-08New Orleans SaintsatSeattle Seahawks28.1%36-41
2011-01-09Baltimore RavensatKansas City Chiefs33.7%30-7
2011-01-09Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles51.7%21-16
2011-01-15Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons58.4%48-21
2011-01-15Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers52.8%24-31
2011-01-16Seattle SeahawksatChicago Bears79.6%24-35
2011-01-16New York JetsatNew England Patriots73.5%28-21
2011-01-23Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears44.0%21-14
2011-01-23New York JetsatPittsburgh Steelers58.4%19-24
2011-02-06Pittsburgh SteelersvsGreen Bay Packers57.1%25-31

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.