The expectation ledger

The 2009 season, against expectation

Every game of 2009scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
267
Model Brier
0.2055
Market Brier
0.1990
Longest odds beaten
9.7%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2009.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2009 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2009-09-10Tennessee TitansatPittsburgh Steelers66.2%10-13
2009-09-13San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals71.7%20-16
2009-09-13Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers56.1%15-21
2009-09-13Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals59.3%12-7
2009-09-13Minnesota VikingsatCleveland Browns42.8%34-20
2009-09-13Dallas CowboysatTampa Bay Buccaneers51.8%34-21
2009-09-13Kansas City ChiefsatBaltimore Ravens86.3%24-38
2009-09-13Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts77.7%12-14
2009-09-13Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants71.4%17-23
2009-09-13Miami DolphinsatAtlanta Falcons61.1%7-19
2009-09-13Philadelphia EaglesatCarolina Panthers48.7%38-10
2009-09-13New York JetsatHouston Texans62.3%24-7
2009-09-13Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints81.1%27-45
2009-09-13St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawks71.7%0-28
2009-09-14Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots78.1%24-25
2009-09-14San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders39.3%24-20
2009-09-20Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Bears38.6%14-17
2009-09-20Cincinnati BengalsatGreen Bay Packers70.8%31-24
2009-09-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatBuffalo Bills58.3%20-33
2009-09-20Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos68.8%6-27
2009-09-20Arizona CardinalsatJacksonville Jaguars49.7%31-17
2009-09-20Baltimore RavensatSan Diego Chargers53.6%31-26
2009-09-20Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs50.3%13-10
2009-09-20St. Louis RamsatWashington Redskins78.1%7-9
2009-09-20New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys54.2%33-31
2009-09-20New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eagles73.1%48-22
2009-09-20Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons66.0%20-28
2009-09-20New England PatriotsatNew York Jets46.5%9-16
2009-09-20Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions26.6%27-13
2009-09-20Houston TexansatTennessee Titans73.9%34-31
2009-09-20Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers61.7%10-23
2009-09-21Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins41.5%27-23
2009-09-27San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings69.3%24-27
2009-09-27Chicago BearsatSeattle Seahawks47.2%25-19
2009-09-27Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals34.8%20-23
2009-09-27New Orleans SaintsatBuffalo Bills43.7%27-7
2009-09-27Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders50.4%23-3
2009-09-27Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens86.5%3-34
2009-09-27New York GiantsatTampa Bay Buccaneers34.4%24-0
2009-09-27Indianapolis ColtsatArizona Cardinals47.8%31-10
2009-09-27Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers69.6%13-23
2009-09-27Kansas City ChiefsatPhiladelphia Eagles85.7%14-34
2009-09-27Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions33.6%14-19
2009-09-27Atlanta FalconsatNew England Patriots62.9%10-26
2009-09-27Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans67.1%31-24
2009-09-27Tennessee TitansatNew York Jets56.7%17-24
2009-09-27Green Bay PackersatSt. Louis Rams36.3%36-17
2009-09-28Carolina PanthersatDallas Cowboys68.4%7-21
2009-10-04Detroit LionsatChicago Bears83.2%24-48
2009-10-04Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns44.0%23-20
2009-10-04Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins62.5%10-38
2009-10-04Dallas CowboysatDenver Broncos52.8%10-17
2009-10-04Tampa Bay BuccaneersatWashington Redskins66.0%13-16
2009-10-04San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers65.0%28-38
2009-10-04New York GiantsatKansas City Chiefs20.3%27-16
2009-10-04Seattle SeahawksatIndianapolis Colts85.2%17-34
2009-10-04Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars47.4%17-37
2009-10-04New York JetsatNew Orleans Saints65.3%10-24
2009-10-04Baltimore RavensatNew England Patriots53.6%21-27
2009-10-04Oakland RaidersatHouston Texans67.5%6-29
2009-10-04St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers81.0%0-35
2009-10-05Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings69.0%23-30
2009-10-11Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens76.2%17-14
2009-10-11Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills67.0%6-3
2009-10-11New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos47.2%17-20
2009-10-11Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPhiladelphia Eagles81.0%14-33
2009-10-11Houston TexansatArizona Cardinals65.0%21-28
2009-10-11Dallas CowboysatKansas City Chiefs28.3%26-20
2009-10-11Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans37.0%31-9
2009-10-11Washington RedskinsatCarolina Panthers58.4%17-20
2009-10-11Oakland RaidersatNew York Giants86.8%7-44
2009-10-11Jacksonville JaguarsatSeattle Seahawks48.2%0-41
2009-10-11Pittsburgh SteelersatDetroit Lions19.5%28-20
2009-10-11Minnesota VikingsatSt. Louis Rams20.3%38-10
2009-10-11Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers53.8%45-10
2009-10-12New York JetsatMiami Dolphins52.1%27-31
2009-10-18Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons62.9%14-21
2009-10-18Houston TexansatCincinnati Bengals65.9%28-17
2009-10-18Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets75.1%16-13
2009-10-18Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers86.6%14-27
2009-10-18Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers47.3%28-21
2009-10-18Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks47.6%27-3
2009-10-18Kansas City ChiefsatWashington Redskins77.5%14-6
2009-10-18Philadelphia EaglesatOakland Raiders27.8%9-13
2009-10-18New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints55.5%27-48
2009-10-18St. Louis RamsatJacksonville Jaguars80.0%20-23
2009-10-18Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers80.6%0-26
2009-10-18Tennessee TitansatNew England Patriots74.6%0-59
2009-10-18Baltimore RavensatMinnesota Vikings59.3%31-33
2009-10-19Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers59.5%34-23
2009-10-25San Francisco 49ersatHouston Texans64.3%21-24
2009-10-25Chicago BearsatCincinnati Bengals51.1%10-45
2009-10-25Buffalo BillsatCarolina Panthers69.0%20-9
2009-10-25Green Bay PackersatCleveland Browns40.5%31-3
2009-10-25New England PatriotsatTampa Bay Buccaneers18.7%35-7
2009-10-25Arizona CardinalsatNew York Giants66.8%24-17
2009-10-25San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs34.2%37-7
2009-10-25Indianapolis ColtsatSt. Louis Rams11.6%42-6
2009-10-25Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys54.1%21-37
2009-10-25New Orleans SaintsatMiami Dolphins39.0%46-34
2009-10-25New York JetsatOakland Raiders43.7%38-0
2009-10-25Minnesota VikingsatPittsburgh Steelers63.5%17-27
2009-10-26Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins37.6%27-17
2009-11-01San Francisco 49ersatIndianapolis Colts85.6%14-18
2009-11-01Cleveland BrownsatChicago Bears78.0%6-30
2009-11-01Houston TexansatBuffalo Bills52.1%31-10
2009-11-01Denver BroncosatBaltimore Ravens60.8%7-30
2009-11-01Carolina PanthersatArizona Cardinals76.0%34-21
2009-11-01Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers80.9%16-24
2009-11-01Seattle SeahawksatDallas Cowboys78.5%17-38
2009-11-01Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets65.7%30-25
2009-11-01New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles59.3%17-40
2009-11-01Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans60.8%13-30
2009-11-01St. Louis RamsatDetroit Lions64.1%17-10
2009-11-01Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers50.1%38-26
2009-11-02Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints72.2%27-35
2009-11-08Arizona CardinalsatChicago Bears54.2%41-21
2009-11-08Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals44.2%7-17
2009-11-08Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers38.7%28-38
2009-11-08San Diego ChargersatNew York Giants60.7%21-20
2009-11-08Kansas City ChiefsatJacksonville Jaguars73.3%21-24
2009-11-08Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts78.5%17-20
2009-11-08Washington RedskinsatAtlanta Falcons77.6%17-31
2009-11-08Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles62.4%20-16
2009-11-08Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots75.3%17-27
2009-11-08Detroit LionsatSeattle Seahawks76.3%20-32
2009-11-08Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints80.1%20-30
2009-11-08Tennessee TitansatSan Francisco 49ers53.2%34-27
2009-11-09Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos44.9%28-10
2009-11-12Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers51.3%6-10
2009-11-15Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers77.1%18-12
2009-11-15Buffalo BillsatTennessee Titans70.6%17-41
2009-11-15Denver BroncosatWashington Redskins39.2%17-27
2009-11-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMiami Dolphins73.1%23-25
2009-11-15Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals78.7%20-31
2009-11-15Philadelphia EaglesatSan Diego Chargers54.8%23-31
2009-11-15Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders64.3%16-10
2009-11-15New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts66.7%34-35
2009-11-15Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers39.5%7-17
2009-11-15Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers48.9%19-28
2009-11-15Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Jets68.2%24-22
2009-11-15Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings92.1%10-27
2009-11-15New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Rams13.0%28-23
2009-11-16Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns24.7%16-0
2009-11-19Miami DolphinsatCarolina Panthers60.9%24-17
2009-11-22San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers67.9%24-30
2009-11-22Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears43.4%24-20
2009-11-22Cincinnati BengalsatOakland Raiders26.1%17-20
2009-11-22Buffalo BillsatJacksonville Jaguars66.0%15-18
2009-11-22San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos47.9%32-3
2009-11-22Cleveland BrownsatDetroit Lions50.1%37-38
2009-11-22New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers20.0%38-7
2009-11-22Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams20.1%21-13
2009-11-22Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs19.6%24-27
2009-11-22Indianapolis ColtsatBaltimore Ravens44.3%17-15
2009-11-22Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys78.6%6-7
2009-11-22Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants61.3%31-34
2009-11-22New York JetsatNew England Patriots77.8%14-31
2009-11-22Seattle SeahawksatMinnesota Vikings83.3%9-35
2009-11-23Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans60.0%20-17
2009-11-26New York GiantsatDenver Broncos45.5%6-26
2009-11-26Oakland RaidersatDallas Cowboys85.0%7-24
2009-11-26Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions25.3%34-12
2009-11-29Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings80.7%10-36
2009-11-29Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals85.1%7-16
2009-11-29Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills40.3%14-31
2009-11-29Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons78.4%17-20
2009-11-29Arizona CardinalsatTennessee Titans51.6%17-20
2009-11-29Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers85.8%14-43
2009-11-29Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans31.2%35-27
2009-11-29Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles79.4%24-27
2009-11-29Carolina PanthersatNew York Jets57.9%6-17
2009-11-29Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Rams42.0%27-17
2009-11-29Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens54.6%17-20
2009-11-29Jacksonville JaguarsatSan Francisco 49ers53.9%3-20
2009-11-30New England PatriotsatNew Orleans Saints65.5%17-38
2009-12-03New York JetsatBuffalo Bills49.6%19-13
2009-12-06San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks54.5%17-20
2009-12-06St. Louis RamsatChicago Bears80.3%9-17
2009-12-06Detroit LionsatCincinnati Bengals89.6%13-23
2009-12-06Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs38.7%44-13
2009-12-06San Diego ChargersatCleveland Browns19.1%30-23
2009-12-06Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers72.4%6-16
2009-12-06Minnesota VikingsatArizona Cardinals50.8%17-30
2009-12-06Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts79.7%17-27
2009-12-06New Orleans SaintsatWashington Redskins19.7%33-30
2009-12-06Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants50.6%24-31
2009-12-06New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins39.2%21-22
2009-12-06Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons51.1%34-7
2009-12-06Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars50.1%18-23
2009-12-06Oakland RaidersatPittsburgh Steelersshock87.5%27-24
2009-12-07Baltimore RavensatGreen Bay Packers48.4%14-27
2009-12-10Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns21.8%6-13
2009-12-13Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears43.4%21-14
2009-12-13Cincinnati BengalsatMinnesota Vikings67.1%10-30
2009-12-13Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs47.8%16-10
2009-12-13Denver BroncosatIndianapolis Colts83.0%16-28
2009-12-13New York JetsatTampa Bay Buccaneers36.0%26-3
2009-12-13San Diego ChargersatDallas Cowboys51.1%20-17
2009-12-13Washington RedskinsatOakland Raiders53.8%34-13
2009-12-13Miami DolphinsatJacksonville Jaguars52.6%14-10
2009-12-13Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants48.6%45-38
2009-12-13New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons28.4%26-23
2009-12-13Detroit LionsatBaltimore Ravens91.0%3-48
2009-12-13Carolina PanthersatNew England Patriots77.0%10-20
2009-12-13St. Louis RamsatTennessee Titans89.0%7-47
2009-12-13Seattle SeahawksatHouston Texans66.4%7-34
2009-12-14Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers35.2%9-24
2009-12-17Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars19.8%35-31
2009-12-19Dallas CowboysatNew Orleans Saints80.0%24-17
2009-12-20San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles79.4%13-27
2009-12-20Chicago BearsatBaltimore Ravens78.1%7-31
2009-12-20Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers72.4%24-27
2009-12-20New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills30.9%17-10
2009-12-20Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncosshock80.9%20-19
2009-12-20Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs56.3%41-34
2009-12-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSeattle Seahawks69.5%24-7
2009-12-20Arizona CardinalsatDetroit Lions17.3%31-24
2009-12-20Miami DolphinsatTennessee Titans64.2%24-27
2009-12-20Atlanta FalconsatNew York Jets65.5%10-7
2009-12-20Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers55.7%36-37
2009-12-20Minnesota VikingsatCarolina Panthers35.7%7-26
2009-12-20Houston TexansatSt. Louis Rams24.3%16-13
2009-12-21New York GiantsatWashington Redskins46.4%45-12
2009-12-25San Diego ChargersatTennessee Titans47.1%42-17
2009-12-27Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals85.6%10-17
2009-12-27Buffalo BillsatAtlanta Falcons71.4%3-31
2009-12-27Denver BroncosatPhiladelphia Eagles77.4%27-30
2009-12-27Oakland RaidersatCleveland Brownsstarters rested60.7%9-23
2009-12-27Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saintsshock90.3%20-17
2009-12-27St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals91.3%10-31
2009-12-27New York JetsatIndianapolis Coltsshock84.6%29-15
2009-12-27Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins33.3%17-0
2009-12-27Houston TexansatMiami Dolphins59.0%27-20
2009-12-27Carolina PanthersatNew York Giants66.4%41-9
2009-12-27Jacksonville JaguarsatNew England Patriots83.4%7-35
2009-12-27Seattle SeahawksatGreen Bay Packers82.3%10-48
2009-12-27Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers53.3%20-23
2009-12-27Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers85.1%6-20
2009-12-28Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears33.8%30-36
2010-01-03San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams26.5%28-6
2010-01-03Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions29.2%37-23
2010-01-03Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets64.0%0-37
2010-01-03Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills20.7%7-30
2010-01-03Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncosshock83.6%44-24
2010-01-03Jacksonville JaguarsatCleveland Brownsstarters rested53.0%17-23
2010-01-03Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers41.3%20-10
2010-01-03Green Bay PackersatArizona Cardinals59.8%33-7
2010-01-03Washington RedskinsatSan Diego Chargers88.5%20-23
2010-01-03Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys52.3%0-24
2010-01-03Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins47.4%30-24
2010-01-03New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings66.6%7-44
2010-01-03New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthersstarters rested44.1%10-23
2010-01-03New England PatriotsatHouston Texans42.0%27-34
2010-01-03Baltimore RavensatOakland Raiders24.9%21-13
2010-01-03Tennessee TitansatSeattle Seahawks34.1%17-13
2010-01-09New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals47.1%24-14
2010-01-09Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys60.9%14-34
2010-01-10Green Bay PackersatArizona Cardinals48.2%45-51
2010-01-10Baltimore RavensatNew England Patriots64.5%33-14
2010-01-16Arizona CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints68.8%14-45
2010-01-16Baltimore RavensatIndianapolis Colts60.4%3-20
2010-01-17New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers67.5%17-14
2010-01-17Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings48.7%3-34
2010-01-24New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts62.5%17-30
2010-01-24Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints63.1%28-31
2010-02-07Indianapolis ColtsvsNew Orleans Saints47.4%17-31

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.