The expectation ledger

The 2008 season, against expectation

Every game of 2008scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
267
Model Brier
0.2178
Market Brier
0.2103
Longest odds beaten
6.5%
Miami Dolphins

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2008.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2008 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2008-09-04Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants66.5%7-16
2008-09-07Chicago BearsatIndianapolis Colts74.9%29-13
2008-09-07Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens52.7%10-17
2008-09-07Seattle SeahawksatBuffalo Bills50.6%10-34
2008-09-07Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns51.4%28-10
2008-09-07Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints60.8%20-24
2008-09-07Carolina PanthersatSan Diego Chargers77.8%26-24
2008-09-07Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots89.7%10-17
2008-09-07New York JetsatMiami Dolphins48.4%20-14
2008-09-07St. Louis RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles77.3%3-38
2008-09-07Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons52.6%21-34
2008-09-07Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans50.4%10-17
2008-09-07Houston TexansatPittsburgh Steelers63.4%17-38
2008-09-07Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers48.7%23-13
2008-09-08Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders46.8%41-14
2008-09-08Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers68.9%19-24
2008-09-14San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks75.0%33-30
2008-09-14Chicago BearsatCarolina Panthers49.7%17-20
2008-09-14Tennessee TitansatCincinnati Bengals50.7%24-7
2008-09-14Buffalo BillsatJacksonville Jaguars67.2%20-16
2008-09-14San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos45.7%38-39
2008-09-14Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns46.4%10-6
2008-09-14Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers65.1%9-24
2008-09-14Miami DolphinsatArizona Cardinals77.9%10-31
2008-09-14Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs64.5%23-8
2008-09-14Indianapolis ColtsatMinnesota Vikings45.5%18-15
2008-09-14New Orleans SaintsatWashington Redskins62.1%24-29
2008-09-14New York GiantsatSt. Louis Rams29.2%41-13
2008-09-14New England PatriotsatNew York Jets24.5%19-10
2008-09-14Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions34.7%48-25
2008-09-15Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys64.7%37-41
2008-09-21Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears68.1%27-24
2008-09-21Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Giants78.7%23-26
2008-09-21Oakland RaidersatBuffalo Bills75.4%23-24
2008-09-21New Orleans SaintsatDenver Broncos64.3%32-34
2008-09-21Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens60.6%10-28
2008-09-21Arizona CardinalsatWashington Redskins61.6%17-24
2008-09-21Kansas City ChiefsatAtlanta Falcons63.9%14-38
2008-09-21Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts67.3%23-21
2008-09-21Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers59.2%27-16
2008-09-21Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriotsshock93.5%38-13
2008-09-21Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles53.6%6-15
2008-09-21Carolina PanthersatMinnesota Vikings55.8%10-20
2008-09-21St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawks74.2%13-37
2008-09-21Houston TexansatTennessee Titans69.2%12-31
2008-09-21Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers60.4%13-31
2008-09-22New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers77.5%29-48
2008-09-28San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints66.1%17-31
2008-09-28Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears53.1%20-24
2008-09-28Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals59.9%20-12
2008-09-28Buffalo BillsatSt. Louis Rams33.3%31-14
2008-09-28Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs33.3%19-33
2008-09-28Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers47.7%21-30
2008-09-28Arizona CardinalsatNew York Jets50.8%35-56
2008-09-28San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders29.8%28-18
2008-09-28Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys71.6%26-24
2008-09-28Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers67.9%9-24
2008-09-28Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars69.5%27-30
2008-09-28Minnesota VikingsatTennessee Titans70.8%17-30
2008-09-29Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers68.0%20-23
2008-10-05Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions35.4%34-7
2008-10-05Cincinnati BengalsatDallas Cowboys82.1%22-31
2008-10-05Buffalo BillsatArizona Cardinals47.1%17-41
2008-10-05Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDenver Broncos54.5%13-16
2008-10-05San Diego ChargersatMiami Dolphins29.7%10-17
2008-10-05Kansas City ChiefsatCarolina Panthers74.6%0-34
2008-10-05Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans43.0%31-27
2008-10-05Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles58.2%23-17
2008-10-05Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers77.6%27-24
2008-10-05Seattle SeahawksatNew York Giants75.1%6-44
2008-10-05Pittsburgh SteelersatJacksonville Jaguars58.2%26-21
2008-10-05Tennessee TitansatBaltimore Ravens43.0%13-10
2008-10-05New England PatriotsatSan Francisco 49ers26.0%30-21
2008-10-06Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints59.8%30-27
2008-10-12Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons40.1%20-22
2008-10-12Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets66.1%14-26
2008-10-12Jacksonville JaguarsatDenver Broncos53.0%24-17
2008-10-12Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers58.0%3-27
2008-10-12Dallas CowboysatArizona Cardinals40.7%24-30
2008-10-12New England PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers49.1%10-30
2008-10-12Baltimore RavensatIndianapolis Colts74.5%3-31
2008-10-12St. Louis RamsatWashington Redskinsshock86.4%19-17
2008-10-12Miami DolphinsatHouston Texans61.8%28-29
2008-10-12Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings78.3%10-12
2008-10-12Green Bay PackersatSeattle Seahawks52.0%27-17
2008-10-12Oakland RaidersatNew Orleans Saints71.0%3-34
2008-10-12Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers40.0%40-26
2008-10-13New York GiantsatCleveland Browns35.7%14-35
2008-10-19San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants84.1%17-29
2008-10-19Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears64.5%41-48
2008-10-19Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals31.9%38-10
2008-10-19San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills43.9%14-23
2008-10-19Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins65.7%11-14
2008-10-19Seattle SeahawksatTampa Bay Buccaneers69.9%10-20
2008-10-19Tennessee TitansatKansas City Chiefs25.1%34-10
2008-10-19Indianapolis ColtsatGreen Bay Packers50.6%14-34
2008-10-19Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Rams25.1%14-34
2008-10-19Baltimore RavensatMiami Dolphins55.3%27-13
2008-10-19New York JetsatOakland Raiders42.4%13-16
2008-10-19Detroit LionsatHouston Texans74.5%21-28
2008-10-19New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers59.1%7-30
2008-10-20Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots78.0%7-41
2008-10-26Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Texans71.6%6-35
2008-10-26Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins39.8%16-25
2008-10-26Cleveland BrownsatJacksonville Jaguars67.6%23-17
2008-10-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys60.2%9-13
2008-10-26Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers58.4%23-27
2008-10-26San Diego ChargersatNew Orleans Saints32.2%32-37
2008-10-26Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets74.2%24-28
2008-10-26Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions27.0%25-17
2008-10-26Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles73.3%14-27
2008-10-26New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers60.7%21-14
2008-10-26St. Louis RamsatNew England Patriots85.7%16-23
2008-10-26Oakland RaidersatBaltimore Ravens73.6%10-29
2008-10-26Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers48.7%34-13
2008-10-27Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans65.4%21-31
2008-11-02Detroit LionsatChicago Bears85.3%23-27
2008-11-02Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals34.2%19-21
2008-11-02New York JetsatBuffalo Bills64.6%26-17
2008-11-02Miami DolphinsatDenver Broncos63.3%26-17
2008-11-02Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns62.5%37-27
2008-11-02Tampa Bay BuccaneersatKansas City Chiefs31.9%30-27
2008-11-02Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams42.9%34-13
2008-11-02New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts47.6%15-18
2008-11-02Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants67.6%14-35
2008-11-02Philadelphia EaglesatSeattle Seahawks45.9%26-7
2008-11-02Atlanta FalconsatOakland Raiders50.6%24-0
2008-11-02Green Bay PackersatTennessee Titans67.5%16-19
2008-11-02Houston TexansatMinnesota Vikings59.7%21-28
2008-11-03Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins58.2%23-6
2008-11-06Denver BroncosatCleveland Browns68.2%34-30
2008-11-09Tennessee TitansatChicago Bears46.4%21-14
2008-11-09Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots78.0%10-20
2008-11-09Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers85.3%19-20
2008-11-09Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers64.5%24-20
2008-11-09Seattle SeahawksatMiami Dolphins62.1%19-21
2008-11-09New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles50.9%36-31
2008-11-09New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons54.5%20-34
2008-11-09Jacksonville JaguarsatDetroit Lions30.7%38-14
2008-11-09St. Louis RamsatNew York Jets76.1%3-47
2008-11-09Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings49.9%27-28
2008-11-09Carolina PanthersatOakland Raiders31.9%17-6
2008-11-09Baltimore RavensatHouston Texans50.1%41-13
2008-11-10San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals82.1%24-29
2008-11-13New York JetsatNew England Patriots74.9%34-31
2008-11-16Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers62.4%3-37
2008-11-16Philadelphia EaglesatCincinnati Bengals31.8%13-13
2008-11-16Denver BroncosatAtlanta Falcons63.0%24-20
2008-11-16Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers62.9%13-19
2008-11-16Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks44.1%26-20
2008-11-16San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers63.2%10-11
2008-11-16New Orleans SaintsatKansas City Chiefs39.4%30-20
2008-11-16Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts79.0%27-33
2008-11-16Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins58.9%14-10
2008-11-16Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins77.9%15-17
2008-11-16Baltimore RavensatNew York Giants71.5%10-30
2008-11-16Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars40.4%24-14
2008-11-16Detroit LionsatCarolina Panthers85.7%22-31
2008-11-16St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers56.2%16-35
2008-11-17Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills58.6%29-27
2008-11-20Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers84.2%10-27
2008-11-23San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys83.2%22-35
2008-11-23Chicago BearsatSt. Louis Rams32.1%27-3
2008-11-23Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs38.3%54-31
2008-11-23Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncosshock78.9%31-10
2008-11-23Houston TexansatCleveland Browns66.8%16-6
2008-11-23Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions24.0%38-20
2008-11-23New York GiantsatArizona Cardinals41.3%37-29
2008-11-23Indianapolis ColtsatSan Diego Chargers52.7%23-20
2008-11-23Washington RedskinsatSeattle Seahawks43.7%20-17
2008-11-23New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins38.4%48-28
2008-11-23Philadelphia EaglesatBaltimore Ravens57.9%7-36
2008-11-23Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons46.7%28-45
2008-11-23Minnesota VikingsatJacksonville Jaguars61.9%30-12
2008-11-23New York JetsatTennessee Titans77.5%34-13
2008-11-24Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints43.8%29-51
2008-11-27Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles59.0%20-48
2008-11-27Seattle SeahawksatDallas Cowboys79.5%9-34
2008-11-27Tennessee TitansatDetroit Lions15.4%47-10
2008-11-30San Francisco 49ersatBuffalo Bills75.9%10-3
2008-11-30Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings59.4%14-34
2008-11-30Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals30.0%34-3
2008-11-30Denver BroncosatNew York Jetsshock79.8%34-17
2008-11-30Indianapolis ColtsatCleveland Browns35.1%10-6
2008-11-30New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers65.8%20-23
2008-11-30Atlanta FalconsatSan Diego Chargers67.2%22-16
2008-11-30Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders69.8%20-13
2008-11-30New York GiantsatWashington Redskins36.3%23-7
2008-11-30Miami DolphinsatSt. Louis Rams38.4%16-12
2008-11-30Carolina PanthersatGreen Bay Packers64.7%35-31
2008-11-30Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots63.6%33-10
2008-12-01Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans56.8%17-30
2008-12-04Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers81.1%7-34
2008-12-07Jacksonville JaguarsatChicago Bears66.4%10-23
2008-12-07Cincinnati BengalsatIndianapolis Colts88.3%3-35
2008-12-07Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills56.7%16-3
2008-12-07Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos78.1%17-24
2008-12-07Cleveland BrownsatTennessee Titans82.5%9-28
2008-12-07St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals83.7%10-34
2008-12-07Washington RedskinsatBaltimore Ravens70.4%10-24
2008-12-07Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers68.3%13-20
2008-12-07Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants78.1%20-14
2008-12-07Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints58.2%25-29
2008-12-07Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions20.9%20-16
2008-12-07Houston TexansatGreen Bay Packers65.6%24-21
2008-12-07New England PatriotsatSeattle Seahawks30.3%24-21
2008-12-07New York JetsatSan Francisco 49ers36.3%14-24
2008-12-08Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers53.7%23-38
2008-12-11New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears60.1%24-27
2008-12-14San Francisco 49ersatMiami Dolphins69.9%9-14
2008-12-14Washington RedskinsatCincinnati Bengals36.9%13-20
2008-12-14Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets71.7%27-31
2008-12-14Denver BroncosatCarolina Panthers70.1%10-30
2008-12-14Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons52.6%10-13
2008-12-14Minnesota VikingsatArizona Cardinals52.3%35-14
2008-12-14San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs28.3%22-21
2008-12-14Detroit LionsatIndianapolis Colts92.9%21-31
2008-12-14New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys43.3%8-20
2008-12-14Green Bay PackersatJacksonville Jaguars49.0%16-20
2008-12-14New England PatriotsatOakland Raiders21.9%49-26
2008-12-14Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Rams44.9%23-20
2008-12-14Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens52.2%13-9
2008-12-14Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans38.0%12-13
2008-12-15Cleveland BrownsatPhiladelphia Eagles78.8%10-30
2008-12-18Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars33.2%31-24
2008-12-20Baltimore RavensatDallas Cowboys59.7%33-24
2008-12-21San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Ramsstarters rested40.6%17-16
2008-12-21Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Brownsstarters rested66.2%14-0
2008-12-21Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos66.9%30-23
2008-12-21San Diego ChargersatTampa Bay Buccaneers59.5%41-24
2008-12-21Arizona CardinalsatNew England Patriots75.9%7-47
2008-12-21Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs31.5%38-31
2008-12-21Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins40.2%3-10
2008-12-21Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikingsstarters rested70.1%24-17
2008-12-21Carolina PanthersatNew York Giants69.0%28-34
2008-12-21New York JetsatSeattle Seahawks41.6%3-13
2008-12-21New Orleans SaintsatDetroit Lions25.1%42-7
2008-12-21Houston TexansatOakland Raiders30.8%16-27
2008-12-21Pittsburgh SteelersatTennessee Titans54.3%14-31
2008-12-22Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears65.0%17-20
2008-12-28Chicago BearsatHouston Texans49.0%24-31
2008-12-28Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals74.0%6-16
2008-12-28New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills31.2%13-0
2008-12-28Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers76.4%21-52
2008-12-28Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers87.5%0-31
2008-12-28Oakland RaidersatTampa Bay Buccaneersshock78.2%31-24
2008-12-28Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals65.5%21-34
2008-12-28Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts57.2%0-23
2008-12-28Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles60.4%6-44
2008-12-28Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets55.7%24-17
2008-12-28St. Louis RamsatAtlanta Falcons88.2%27-31
2008-12-28New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings45.6%19-20
2008-12-28Jacksonville JaguarsatBaltimore Ravens80.5%7-27
2008-12-28Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers85.8%21-31
2008-12-28Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints53.7%33-31
2008-12-28Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers46.1%24-27
2009-01-03Atlanta FalconsatArizona Cardinals50.1%24-30
2009-01-03Indianapolis ColtsatSan Diego Chargers45.3%17-23
2009-01-04Baltimore RavensatMiami Dolphins45.1%27-9
2009-01-04Philadelphia EaglesatMinnesota Vikings54.6%26-14
2009-01-10Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers68.9%33-13
2009-01-10Baltimore RavensatTennessee Titans56.8%13-10
2009-01-11San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers66.6%24-35
2009-01-11Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants61.9%23-11
2009-01-18Philadelphia EaglesatArizona Cardinals42.2%25-32
2009-01-18Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers59.2%14-23
2009-02-01Arizona CardinalsvsPittsburgh Steelers66.8%23-27

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.