The expectation ledger

The 2007 season, against expectation

Every game of 2007scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 20062008→
Games
267
Model Brier
0.2154
Market Brier
0.2033
Longest odds beaten
13.4%
Tennessee Titans

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2007.

1
New England Patriots
Boston
16
exp 12.16
2
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
13
exp 10.06
3
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
13
exp 10.08
4
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
10
exp 7.29
5
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
9
exp 6.95
6
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
11
exp 9.14
7
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
10
exp 8.30
8
New York Giants
New York
10
exp 8.37
9
Houston Texans
Houston
8
exp 6.64
10
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
13
exp 11.90
11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
9
exp 8.31
12
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
11
exp 10.33
Show all 32 rows
13
Detroit Lions
Detroit
7
exp 6.35
14
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
8
exp 7.39
15
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
8
exp 7.58
16
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
10
exp 9.86
17
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
8
exp 8.10
18
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
7
exp 7.26
19
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
4
exp 4.36
20
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
10
exp 10.62
21
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
7
exp 7.64
22
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
5
exp 5.77
23
Denver Broncos
Denver
7
exp 7.82
24
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
7
exp 8.07
25
Chicago Bears
Chicago
7
exp 8.25
26
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
7
exp 8.33
27
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
4
exp 5.66
28
New York Jets
New York
4
exp 6.37
29
St. Louis Rams
St. Louis
3
exp 6.02
30
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
5
exp 8.15
31
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
4
exp 7.70
32
Miami Dolphins
Miami
1
exp 5.19

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2007 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2007-09-06New Orleans SaintsatIndianapolis Colts76.3%10-41
2007-09-09Chicago BearsatSan Diego Chargers68.7%3-14
2007-09-09Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills53.3%15-14
2007-09-09Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns35.1%34-7
2007-09-09Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSeattle Seahawks71.5%6-20
2007-09-09Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Texans44.2%3-20
2007-09-09Miami DolphinsatWashington Redskins53.4%13-16
2007-09-09New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys58.8%35-45
2007-09-09Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers52.8%13-16
2007-09-09Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings57.6%3-24
2007-09-09Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars66.0%13-10
2007-09-09New England PatriotsatNew York Jets42.3%38-14
2007-09-09Detroit LionsatOakland Raiders54.0%36-21
2007-09-09Carolina PanthersatSt. Louis Rams54.5%27-13
2007-09-10Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals49.8%20-27
2007-09-10Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers59.3%17-20
2007-09-16San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams59.0%17-16
2007-09-16Kansas City ChiefsatChicago Bears66.4%10-20
2007-09-16Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns33.3%45-51
2007-09-16Buffalo BillsatPittsburgh Steelers69.9%3-26
2007-09-16Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos85.7%20-23
2007-09-16New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers45.3%14-31
2007-09-16Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals45.3%20-23
2007-09-16San Diego ChargersatNew England Patriots59.1%14-38
2007-09-16Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans37.3%22-20
2007-09-16Dallas CowboysatMiami Dolphins54.6%37-20
2007-09-16Atlanta FalconsatJacksonville Jaguars72.4%7-13
2007-09-16Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants54.3%35-13
2007-09-16New York JetsatBaltimore Ravens71.8%13-20
2007-09-16Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions53.0%17-20
2007-09-16Houston TexansatCarolina Panthers69.1%34-21
2007-09-17Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles68.3%20-12
2007-09-23San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers77.5%16-37
2007-09-23Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears63.8%34-10
2007-09-23Cincinnati BengalsatSeattle Seahawks56.2%21-24
2007-09-23Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots81.6%7-38
2007-09-23Jacksonville JaguarsatDenver Broncos63.9%23-14
2007-09-23Cleveland BrownsatOakland Raiders47.2%24-26
2007-09-23St. Louis RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers58.5%3-24
2007-09-23Arizona CardinalsatBaltimore Ravens77.7%23-26
2007-09-23San Diego ChargersatGreen Bay Packers46.3%24-31
2007-09-23Minnesota VikingsatKansas City Chiefs64.9%10-13
2007-09-23Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans35.2%30-24
2007-09-23New York GiantsatWashington Redskins66.4%24-17
2007-09-23Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets63.5%28-31
2007-09-23Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles68.1%21-56
2007-09-23Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons46.4%27-20
2007-09-24Tennessee TitansatNew Orleans Saints54.0%31-14
2007-09-30Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions41.8%27-37
2007-09-30New York JetsatBuffalo Bills58.4%14-17
2007-09-30Denver BroncosatIndianapolis Colts77.6%20-38
2007-09-30Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns30.1%13-27
2007-09-30Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers67.5%20-7
2007-09-30Pittsburgh SteelersatArizona Cardinals33.6%14-21
2007-09-30Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers73.5%30-16
2007-09-30St. Louis RamsatDallas Cowboys79.4%7-35
2007-09-30Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins72.9%35-17
2007-09-30Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants52.2%3-16
2007-09-30Houston TexansatAtlanta Falcons45.1%16-26
2007-09-30Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings41.2%23-16
2007-09-30Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers48.3%23-3
2007-10-01New England PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals34.6%34-13
2007-10-07Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers69.7%27-20
2007-10-07San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos53.2%41-3
2007-10-07Cleveland BrownsatNew England Patriots88.3%17-34
2007-10-07Tampa Bay BuccaneersatIndianapolis Colts82.5%14-33
2007-10-07Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams50.1%34-31
2007-10-07Jacksonville JaguarsatKansas City Chiefs56.1%17-7
2007-10-07Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins62.8%3-34
2007-10-07Miami DolphinsatHouston Texans69.4%19-22
2007-10-07Atlanta FalconsatTennessee Titans74.1%13-20
2007-10-07New York JetsatNew York Giants61.9%24-35
2007-10-07Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints52.6%16-13
2007-10-07Seattle SeahawksatPittsburgh Steelers64.7%0-21
2007-10-07Baltimore RavensatSan Francisco 49ers38.8%9-7
2007-10-08Dallas CowboysatBuffalo Bills44.1%25-24
2007-10-14Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears73.4%34-31
2007-10-14Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs61.5%20-27
2007-10-14Miami DolphinsatCleveland Browns65.2%31-41
2007-10-14Tennessee TitansatTampa Bay Buccaneers50.8%10-13
2007-10-14Carolina PanthersatArizona Cardinals56.8%25-10
2007-10-14Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers84.8%14-28
2007-10-14Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packers67.7%14-17
2007-10-14New England PatriotsatDallas Cowboys42.3%48-27
2007-10-14Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Jets53.9%16-9
2007-10-14Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars74.3%17-37
2007-10-14St. Louis RamsatBaltimore Ravens80.4%3-22
2007-10-14New Orleans SaintsatSeattle Seahawks73.1%28-17
2007-10-15New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons44.6%31-10
2007-10-21San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants75.6%15-33
2007-10-21Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles59.9%19-16
2007-10-21New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals66.1%31-38
2007-10-21Baltimore RavensatBuffalo Bills45.8%14-19
2007-10-21Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos41.3%28-31
2007-10-21Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions46.6%16-23
2007-10-21Arizona CardinalsatWashington Redskins63.6%19-21
2007-10-21Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders36.1%12-10
2007-10-21Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys75.7%14-24
2007-10-21New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins13.8%49-28
2007-10-21Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints69.6%16-22
2007-10-21St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawks73.6%6-33
2007-10-21Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans48.6%38-36
2007-10-22Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars44.5%29-7
2007-10-28Detroit LionsatChicago Bears71.4%16-7
2007-10-28Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals45.3%24-13
2007-10-28Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets47.3%13-3
2007-10-28Cleveland BrownsatSt. Louis Rams48.0%27-20
2007-10-28Jacksonville JaguarsatTampa Bay Buccaneers44.9%24-23
2007-10-28Houston TexansatSan Diego Chargers79.2%10-35
2007-10-28Indianapolis ColtsatCarolina Panthers30.6%31-7
2007-10-28Washington RedskinsatNew England Patriots87.1%7-52
2007-10-28New York GiantsatMiami Dolphins24.5%13-10
2007-10-28Philadelphia EaglesatMinnesota Vikings50.0%23-16
2007-10-28Oakland RaidersatTennessee Titans80.8%9-13
2007-10-28New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers48.2%31-10
2007-10-29Green Bay PackersatDenver Broncos51.1%19-13
2007-11-04San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons60.2%16-20
2007-11-04Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills66.1%21-33
2007-11-04Denver BroncosatDetroit Lions57.5%7-44
2007-11-04Seattle SeahawksatCleveland Browns52.5%30-33
2007-11-04Arizona CardinalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers63.6%10-17
2007-11-04San Diego ChargersatMinnesota Vikings29.8%17-35
2007-11-04Green Bay PackersatKansas City Chiefs53.4%33-22
2007-11-04New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts58.3%24-20
2007-11-04Washington RedskinsatNew York Jets47.6%23-20
2007-11-04Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles49.5%38-17
2007-11-04Jacksonville JaguarsatNew Orleans Saints47.3%24-41
2007-11-04Carolina PanthersatTennessee Titans64.4%7-20
2007-11-04Houston TexansatOakland Raiders47.6%24-17
2007-11-05Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers67.1%7-38
2007-11-11Chicago BearsatOakland Raiders36.8%17-6
2007-11-11Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens69.5%21-7
2007-11-11Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins32.4%13-10
2007-11-11Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs67.1%27-11
2007-11-11Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers79.1%28-31
2007-11-11Detroit LionsatArizona Cardinals48.6%21-31
2007-11-11Indianapolis ColtsatSan Diego Chargers37.5%21-23
2007-11-11Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins59.6%33-25
2007-11-11Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants50.7%31-20
2007-11-11Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers73.3%20-13
2007-11-11Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans60.9%28-13
2007-11-11Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers77.5%0-34
2007-11-11St. Louis RamsatNew Orleans Saintsshock81.4%37-29
2007-11-12San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks76.7%0-24
2007-11-18Chicago BearsatSeattle Seahawks58.8%23-30
2007-11-18Arizona CardinalsatCincinnati Bengals65.8%35-27
2007-11-18New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills27.8%56-10
2007-11-18Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens63.3%33-30
2007-11-18Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons49.2%31-7
2007-11-18San Diego ChargersatJacksonville Jaguars58.2%17-24
2007-11-18Kansas City ChiefsatIndianapolis Colts86.1%10-13
2007-11-18Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys80.3%23-28
2007-11-18Miami DolphinsatPhiladelphia Eagles79.9%7-17
2007-11-18New York GiantsatDetroit Lions51.1%16-10
2007-11-18Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets24.5%16-19
2007-11-18Carolina PanthersatGreen Bay Packers78.6%17-31
2007-11-18Oakland RaidersatMinnesota Vikings75.0%22-29
2007-11-18New Orleans SaintsatHouston Texans54.1%10-23
2007-11-18St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers53.1%13-9
2007-11-19Tennessee TitansatDenver Broncos53.7%20-34
2007-11-22Indianapolis ColtsatAtlanta Falcons17.0%31-13
2007-11-22New York JetsatDallas Cowboys85.5%3-34
2007-11-22Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions34.5%37-26
2007-11-25San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals78.5%37-31
2007-11-25Denver BroncosatChicago Bears55.9%34-37
2007-11-25Tennessee TitansatCincinnati Bengals53.8%6-35
2007-11-25Buffalo BillsatJacksonville Jaguars69.2%14-36
2007-11-25Houston TexansatCleveland Browns60.1%17-27
2007-11-25Washington RedskinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers67.3%13-19
2007-11-25Baltimore RavensatSan Diego Chargers72.3%14-32
2007-11-25Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefsshock78.6%20-17
2007-11-25Philadelphia EaglesatNew England Patriots87.8%28-31
2007-11-25Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants72.2%41-17
2007-11-25New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers56.7%31-6
2007-11-25Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Rams41.4%24-19
2007-11-26Miami DolphinsatPittsburgh Steelers88.4%0-3
2007-11-29Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys60.7%27-37
2007-12-02San Francisco 49ersatCarolina Panthers66.9%14-31
2007-12-02New York GiantsatChicago Bears59.7%21-16
2007-12-02Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers74.9%10-24
2007-12-02Buffalo BillsatWashington Redskins49.7%17-16
2007-12-02Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders34.8%20-34
2007-12-02Cleveland BrownsatArizona Cardinals51.1%21-27
2007-12-02Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints55.7%27-23
2007-12-02San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs37.8%24-10
2007-12-02Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts73.2%25-28
2007-12-02New York JetsatMiami Dolphins49.6%40-13
2007-12-02Seattle SeahawksatPhiladelphia Eagles56.9%28-24
2007-12-02Atlanta FalconsatSt. Louis Rams60.4%16-28
2007-12-02Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings67.6%10-42
2007-12-02Houston TexansatTennessee Titans61.4%20-28
2007-12-03New England PatriotsatBaltimore Ravens16.9%27-24
2007-12-06Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins52.9%16-24
2007-12-09St. Louis RamsatCincinnati Bengals70.1%10-19
2007-12-09Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills84.0%17-38
2007-12-09Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos65.3%7-41
2007-12-09Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jets51.6%24-18
2007-12-09Tampa Bay BuccaneersatHouston Texans44.3%14-28
2007-12-09Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks71.1%21-42
2007-12-09San Diego ChargersatTennessee Titans41.8%23-17
2007-12-09Indianapolis ColtsatBaltimore Ravens22.2%44-20
2007-12-09Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions24.7%28-27
2007-12-09New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles56.2%16-13
2007-12-09Carolina PanthersatJacksonville Jaguars81.1%6-37
2007-12-09Oakland RaidersatGreen Bay Packers86.8%7-38
2007-12-09Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots79.7%13-34
2007-12-09Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers33.1%27-7
2007-12-10New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons40.6%34-14
2007-12-13Denver BroncosatHouston Texans56.8%13-31
2007-12-15Cincinnati BengalsatSan Francisco 49ers33.8%13-20
2007-12-16Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns55.9%0-8
2007-12-16Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers80.9%3-37
2007-12-16Arizona CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints67.5%24-31
2007-12-16Detroit LionsatSan Diego Chargers83.4%14-51
2007-12-16Tennessee TitansatKansas City Chiefs48.4%26-17
2007-12-16Indianapolis ColtsatOakland Raiders13.1%21-14
2007-12-16Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants69.8%22-10
2007-12-16Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboysshock81.5%10-6
2007-12-16Baltimore RavensatMiami Dolphins37.0%16-22
2007-12-16Jacksonville JaguarsatPittsburgh Steelers58.6%29-22
2007-12-16New York JetsatNew England Patriots93.9%10-20
2007-12-16Green Bay PackersatSt. Louis Rams26.0%33-14
2007-12-16Seattle SeahawksatCarolina Panthers37.3%10-13
2007-12-17Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings69.7%13-20
2007-12-20Pittsburgh SteelersatSt. Louis Rams28.7%41-24
2007-12-22Dallas CowboysatCarolina Panthers29.8%20-13
2007-12-23Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears31.4%7-35
2007-12-23Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals51.6%14-19
2007-12-23New York GiantsatBuffalo Bills60.3%38-21
2007-12-23Atlanta FalconsatArizona Cardinals73.9%27-30
2007-12-23Kansas City ChiefsatDetroit Lions62.8%20-25
2007-12-23Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts86.6%15-38
2007-12-23Washington RedskinsatMinnesota Vikings66.8%32-21
2007-12-23Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots96.5%7-28
2007-12-23Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints60.3%38-23
2007-12-23Oakland RaidersatJacksonville Jaguars89.0%11-49
2007-12-23New York JetsatTennessee Titans71.0%6-10
2007-12-23Baltimore RavensatSeattle Seahawks76.0%6-27
2007-12-23Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers33.6%19-21
2007-12-24Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers79.9%3-23
2007-12-29New England PatriotsatNew York Giants21.8%38-35
2007-12-30San Francisco 49ersatCleveland Browns77.0%7-20
2007-12-30New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bearsstarters rested60.8%25-33
2007-12-30Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins34.6%38-25
2007-12-30Buffalo BillsatPhiladelphia Eagles69.5%9-17
2007-12-30Minnesota VikingsatDenver Broncos50.2%19-22
2007-12-30Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneersstarters rested70.9%31-23
2007-12-30St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals70.0%19-48
2007-12-30San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders20.2%30-17
2007-12-30Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jetsstarters rested63.9%10-13
2007-12-30Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Coltsshock86.6%16-10
2007-12-30Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins40.9%6-27
2007-12-30Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons25.0%41-44
2007-12-30Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texansstarters rested35.4%28-42
2007-12-30Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers80.9%13-34
2007-12-30Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravensstarters rested30.4%21-27
2008-01-05Washington RedskinsatSeattle Seahawks55.8%14-35
2008-01-05Jacksonville JaguarsatPittsburgh Steelers53.8%31-29
2008-01-06New York GiantsatTampa Bay Buccaneers51.9%24-14
2008-01-06Tennessee TitansatSan Diego Chargers73.8%6-17
2008-01-12Jacksonville JaguarsatNew England Patriots81.6%20-31
2008-01-12Seattle SeahawksatGreen Bay Packers64.7%20-42
2008-01-13San Diego ChargersatIndianapolis Colts66.3%28-24
2008-01-13New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys68.1%21-17
2008-01-20San Diego ChargersatNew England Patriots76.7%12-21
2008-01-20New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers66.5%23-20
2008-02-03New England PatriotsvsNew York Giantsshock19.4%14-17

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.