The expectation ledger

The 2002 season, against expectation

Every game of 2002scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
267
Model Brier
0.2234
Market Brier
0.2225
Longest odds beaten
7.9%
Houston Texans

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2002.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2002 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2002-09-05San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants48.5%16-13
2002-09-08Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears73.6%23-27
2002-09-08San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals60.6%34-6
2002-09-08New York JetsatBuffalo Bills41.8%37-31
2002-09-08St. Louis RamsatDenver Broncos37.5%16-23
2002-09-08Kansas City ChiefsatCleveland Browns55.2%40-39
2002-09-08New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers71.7%26-20
2002-09-08Arizona CardinalsatWashington Redskins70.9%23-31
2002-09-08Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars58.2%28-25
2002-09-08Dallas CowboysatHouston Texans41.3%10-19
2002-09-08Detroit LionsatMiami Dolphins75.9%21-49
2002-09-08Philadelphia EaglesatTennessee Titans45.5%24-27
2002-09-08Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers79.4%34-37
2002-09-08Baltimore RavensatCarolina Panthers31.3%7-10
2002-09-08Seattle SeahawksatOakland Raiders68.9%17-31
2002-09-09Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots60.0%14-30
2002-09-15Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons37.5%14-13
2002-09-15Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns67.6%7-20
2002-09-15Buffalo BillsatMinnesota Vikings65.7%45-39
2002-09-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatBaltimore Ravens64.1%25-0
2002-09-15Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks67.5%24-13
2002-09-15Houston TexansatSan Diego Chargers74.6%3-24
2002-09-15Jacksonville JaguarsatKansas City Chiefs61.3%23-16
2002-09-15Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts53.3%21-13
2002-09-15Tennessee TitansatDallas Cowboys40.2%13-21
2002-09-15New York GiantsatSt. Louis Rams78.0%26-21
2002-09-15New England PatriotsatNew York Jets47.9%44-7
2002-09-15Detroit LionsatCarolina Panthers59.8%7-31
2002-09-15Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints42.4%20-35
2002-09-15Oakland RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers59.0%30-17
2002-09-15Denver BroncosatSan Francisco 49ers65.6%24-14
2002-09-16Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins49.6%37-7
2002-09-22New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears67.9%29-23
2002-09-22Cincinnati BengalsatAtlanta Falcons66.6%3-30
2002-09-22Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos76.1%23-28
2002-09-22Cleveland BrownsatTennessee Titans66.0%31-28
2002-09-22San Diego ChargersatArizona Cardinals57.6%23-15
2002-09-22Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots82.9%38-41
2002-09-22Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans35.1%23-3
2002-09-22Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles82.7%13-44
2002-09-22New York JetsatMiami Dolphins67.0%3-30
2002-09-22Seattle SeahawksatNew York Giants67.3%6-9
2002-09-22Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions30.9%37-31
2002-09-22Carolina PanthersatMinnesota Vikings59.5%21-14
2002-09-22Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers65.4%10-20
2002-09-23St. Louis RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers54.3%14-26
2002-09-29Chicago BearsatBuffalo Bills40.2%27-33
2002-09-29Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCincinnati Bengals26.1%35-7
2002-09-29Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers69.2%13-16
2002-09-29New York GiantsatArizona Cardinals47.1%7-21
2002-09-29New England PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers34.1%14-21
2002-09-29Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs39.0%30-48
2002-09-29Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Rams78.3%13-10
2002-09-29Houston TexansatPhiladelphia Eagles91.6%17-35
2002-09-29New York JetsatJacksonville Jaguars59.1%3-28
2002-09-29New Orleans SaintsatDetroit Lions32.6%21-26
2002-09-29Carolina PanthersatGreen Bay Packers76.1%14-17
2002-09-29Tennessee TitansatOakland Raiders75.5%25-52
2002-09-29Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks65.0%23-48
2002-09-30Denver BroncosatBaltimore Ravens50.8%23-34
2002-10-06Cincinnati BengalsatIndianapolis Colts80.7%21-28
2002-10-06Oakland RaidersatBuffalo Bills32.7%49-31
2002-10-06San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos62.6%9-26
2002-10-06Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns49.7%26-21
2002-10-06Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons36.0%20-6
2002-10-06Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers56.5%16-13
2002-10-06Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets56.5%29-25
2002-10-06Washington RedskinsatTennessee Titans57.9%31-14
2002-10-06New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys53.0%21-17
2002-10-06New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins47.4%13-26
2002-10-06Philadelphia EaglesatJacksonville Jaguars41.3%25-28
2002-10-06Pittsburgh SteelersatNew Orleans Saints53.4%29-32
2002-10-06St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers60.5%13-37
2002-10-07Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears51.1%34-21
2002-10-13Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals27.9%34-7
2002-10-13Buffalo BillsatHouston Texans40.3%31-24
2002-10-13Miami DolphinsatDenver Broncos56.2%24-22
2002-10-13Cleveland BrownsatTampa Bay Buccaneers79.5%3-17
2002-10-13Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers57.9%34-35
2002-10-13Baltimore RavensatIndianapolis Colts53.8%20-22
2002-10-13New Orleans SaintsatWashington Redskins57.2%43-27
2002-10-13Carolina PanthersatDallas Cowboys59.5%13-14
2002-10-13Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants70.1%17-10
2002-10-13Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans44.9%14-23
2002-10-13Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings58.5%24-31
2002-10-13Green Bay PackersatNew England Patriots59.5%28-10
2002-10-13Oakland RaidersatSt. Louis Rams41.4%13-28
2002-10-14San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks41.4%28-21
2002-10-20San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints54.1%27-35
2002-10-20Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions39.4%20-23
2002-10-20Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins78.5%23-10
2002-10-20Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs52.2%37-34
2002-10-20Houston TexansatCleveland Browns79.0%17-34
2002-10-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPhiladelphia Eagles59.4%10-20
2002-10-20Dallas CowboysatArizona Cardinals65.3%6-9
2002-10-20San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders73.4%27-21
2002-10-20Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packers79.1%9-30
2002-10-20Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons63.9%0-30
2002-10-20Jacksonville JaguarsatBaltimore Ravens63.3%10-17
2002-10-20Minnesota VikingsatNew York Jets67.7%7-20
2002-10-20Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Rams74.1%20-37
2002-10-21Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers64.6%10-28
2002-10-27Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings43.5%7-25
2002-10-27Tennessee TitansatCincinnati Bengals36.0%30-24
2002-10-27Detroit LionsatBuffalo Bills73.0%17-24
2002-10-27Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots60.7%24-16
2002-10-27Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jets61.8%24-21
2002-10-27Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers29.1%12-9
2002-10-27Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs45.4%10-20
2002-10-27Indianapolis ColtsatWashington Redskins54.6%21-26
2002-10-27Seattle SeahawksatDallas Cowboys58.1%17-14
2002-10-27Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints73.3%37-35
2002-10-27Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguarsshock84.9%21-19
2002-10-27Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens55.5%31-18
2002-10-27Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers71.9%28-38
2002-10-28New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles80.4%3-17
2002-11-03San Francisco 49ersatOakland Raiders54.6%23-20
2002-11-03Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears30.2%19-13
2002-11-03Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Texans59.1%38-3
2002-11-03New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills51.5%38-7
2002-11-03Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns38.7%23-20
2002-11-03Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers83.1%24-38
2002-11-03St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals44.6%27-14
2002-11-03New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers70.4%44-13
2002-11-03Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts60.8%23-15
2002-11-03Washington RedskinsatSeattle Seahawks53.1%14-3
2002-11-03Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions54.3%7-9
2002-11-03Baltimore RavensatAtlanta Falcons54.1%17-20
2002-11-03Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Giants57.0%17-24
2002-11-04Miami DolphinsatGreen Bay Packers72.9%10-24
2002-11-10New England PatriotsatChicago Bears38.3%33-30
2002-11-10Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens80.9%27-38
2002-11-10Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals63.2%27-6
2002-11-10San Diego ChargersatSt. Louis Rams73.4%24-28
2002-11-10Indianapolis ColtsatPhiladelphia Eaglesshock83.0%35-13
2002-11-10Washington RedskinsatJacksonville Jaguars51.5%7-26
2002-11-10Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets54.1%10-13
2002-11-10Atlanta FalconsatPittsburgh Steelers74.4%34-34
2002-11-10New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings47.9%27-20
2002-11-10Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers88.9%14-40
2002-11-10New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers33.8%34-24
2002-11-10Houston TexansatTennessee Titans86.9%10-17
2002-11-10Kansas City ChiefsatSan Francisco 49ers71.2%13-17
2002-11-11Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos66.1%34-10
2002-11-17San Francisco 49ersatSan Diego Chargers39.3%17-20
2002-11-17Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals39.7%27-20
2002-11-17Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs65.5%16-17
2002-11-17Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks46.1%31-9
2002-11-17Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers86.5%10-23
2002-11-17Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles82.6%14-38
2002-11-17Dallas CowboysatIndianapolis Colts75.1%3-20
2002-11-17Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants61.1%17-19
2002-11-17Baltimore RavensatMiami Dolphins59.9%7-26
2002-11-17New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons49.2%17-24
2002-11-17Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans25.4%24-21
2002-11-17New York JetsatDetroit Lions38.8%31-14
2002-11-17Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings20.4%21-31
2002-11-17New England PatriotsatOakland Raiders58.2%20-27
2002-11-17Pittsburgh SteelersatTennessee Titans44.0%23-31
2002-11-18Chicago BearsatSt. Louis Rams80.0%16-21
2002-11-24Detroit LionsatChicago Bears68.7%17-20
2002-11-24Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers88.3%21-29
2002-11-24Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets69.9%13-31
2002-11-24Indianapolis ColtsatDenver Broncos65.5%23-20
2002-11-24Cleveland BrownsatNew Orleans Saints70.5%24-15
2002-11-24Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers58.7%7-21
2002-11-24Oakland RaidersatArizona Cardinals30.2%41-20
2002-11-24San Diego ChargersatMiami Dolphins66.9%3-30
2002-11-24Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks47.5%32-39
2002-11-24St. Louis RamsatWashington Redskins40.3%17-20
2002-11-24Jacksonville JaguarsatDallas Cowboys42.9%19-21
2002-11-24Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers35.4%41-0
2002-11-24New York GiantsatHouston Texans22.8%14-16
2002-11-24Minnesota VikingsatNew England Patriots78.3%17-24
2002-11-24Tennessee TitansatBaltimore Ravens54.4%12-13
2002-11-25Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers56.1%38-17
2002-11-28Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys44.8%20-27
2002-11-28New England PatriotsatDetroit Lions26.0%20-12
2002-12-01Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers80.9%20-30
2002-12-01Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals30.8%27-23
2002-12-01Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills40.4%21-38
2002-12-01Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers46.8%27-30
2002-12-01Carolina PanthersatCleveland Browns79.6%13-6
2002-12-01Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints40.8%20-23
2002-12-01Arizona CardinalsatKansas City Chiefs73.4%0-49
2002-12-01Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts89.3%3-19
2002-12-01St. Louis RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles67.8%3-10
2002-12-01Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings38.9%30-24
2002-12-01Tennessee TitansatNew York Giants53.5%32-29
2002-12-01Pittsburgh SteelersatJacksonville Jaguars43.0%25-23
2002-12-01Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers73.5%24-31
2002-12-02New York JetsatOakland Raiders68.4%20-26
2002-12-08San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys36.9%31-27
2002-12-08Cincinnati BengalsatCarolina Panthers70.2%31-52
2002-12-08Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots74.8%17-27
2002-12-08Denver BroncosatNew York Jets58.9%13-19
2002-12-08Cleveland BrownsatJacksonville Jaguars59.4%21-20
2002-12-08Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers68.0%10-34
2002-12-08Detroit LionsatArizona Cardinals63.0%20-23
2002-12-08Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers38.4%27-7
2002-12-08St. Louis RamsatKansas City Chiefs49.1%10-49
2002-12-08Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans57.3%17-27
2002-12-08New York GiantsatWashington Redskins58.9%27-21
2002-12-08Philadelphia EaglesatSeattle Seahawks28.1%27-20
2002-12-08Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers84.2%22-26
2002-12-08New Orleans SaintsatBaltimore Ravens55.5%37-25
2002-12-08Houston TexansatPittsburgh Steelersshock92.1%24-6
2002-12-09Chicago BearsatMiami Dolphins73.8%9-27
2002-12-15New York JetsatChicago Bears37.9%13-20
2002-12-15Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals32.7%29-15
2002-12-15San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills59.0%13-20
2002-12-15Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos56.9%24-31
2002-12-15Indianapolis ColtsatCleveland Browns51.1%28-23
2002-12-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions17.3%23-20
2002-12-15Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams79.8%28-30
2002-12-15Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles84.8%21-34
2002-12-15Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants71.2%7-37
2002-12-15Oakland RaidersatMiami Dolphins44.0%17-23
2002-12-15Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons74.6%30-24
2002-12-15Carolina PanthersatPittsburgh Steelers77.1%14-30
2002-12-15Baltimore RavensatHouston Texans34.6%23-19
2002-12-15Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saintsshock80.1%32-31
2002-12-15Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers53.2%20-14
2002-12-16New England PatriotsatTennessee Titans52.7%7-24
2002-12-21San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals31.5%17-14
2002-12-21Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboysstarters rested20.4%27-3
2002-12-21Miami DolphinsatMinnesota Vikings35.9%17-20
2002-12-22Chicago BearsatCarolina Panthers51.5%14-24
2002-12-22New Orleans SaintsatCincinnati Bengalsshock20.4%13-20
2002-12-22Buffalo BillsatGreen Bay Packers79.4%0-10
2002-12-22Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders70.7%16-28
2002-12-22Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens64.0%14-13
2002-12-22San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs69.8%22-24
2002-12-22New York GiantsatIndianapolis Colts64.8%44-27
2002-12-22Houston TexansatWashington Redskinsstarters rested76.5%10-26
2002-12-22Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons82.5%15-36
2002-12-22Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars43.6%28-10
2002-12-22New York JetsatNew England Patriots66.1%30-17
2002-12-22St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawks47.2%10-30
2002-12-23Pittsburgh SteelersatTampa Bay Buccaneersstarters rested73.5%17-7
2002-12-28Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders73.7%0-24
2002-12-28Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giantsstarters rested38.6%7-10
2002-12-29Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bearsstarters rested30.0%15-0
2002-12-29Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills80.2%9-27
2002-12-29Arizona CardinalsatDenver Broncosstarters rested80.1%7-37
2002-12-29Atlanta FalconsatCleveland Browns50.8%16-24
2002-12-29Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers51.9%31-28
2002-12-29Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts67.4%13-20
2002-12-29Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskinsstarters rested69.5%14-20
2002-12-29Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots58.1%24-27
2002-12-29Green Bay PackersatNew York Jets46.4%17-42
2002-12-29Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions42.4%38-36
2002-12-29Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints74.2%10-6
2002-12-29Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers72.1%31-34
2002-12-29Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans18.1%13-3
2002-12-30San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Ramsstarters rested50.9%20-31
2003-01-04Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets69.0%0-41
2003-01-04Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers73.7%27-7
2003-01-05Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers72.4%33-36
2003-01-05New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers56.0%38-39
2003-01-11Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles74.8%6-20
2003-01-11Pittsburgh SteelersatTennessee Titans62.2%31-34
2003-01-12San Francisco 49ersatTampa Bay Buccaneers70.3%6-31
2003-01-12New York JetsatOakland Raiders64.6%10-30
2003-01-19Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPhiladelphia Eagles64.3%27-10
2003-01-19Tennessee TitansatOakland Raiders66.3%24-41
2003-01-26Oakland RaidersvsTampa Bay Buccaneers48.8%21-48

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.