The expectation ledger

The 2004 season, against expectation

Every game of 2004scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 20032005→
Games
267
Model Brier
0.2235
Market Brier
0.2158
Longest odds beaten
17.6%
Oakland Raiders

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2004.

1
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
15
exp 9.58
2
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
12
exp 8.22
3
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
11
exp 9.01
4
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
9
exp 7.09
5
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
8
exp 6.27
6
New England Patriots
Boston
14
exp 12.29
7
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
12
exp 10.62
8
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
9
exp 7.65
9
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
13
exp 11.89
10
Houston Texans
Houston
7
exp 5.96
11
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
8
exp 7.03
12
New York Jets
New York
10
exp 9.14
Show all 32 rows
13
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
10
exp 9.58
14
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
6
exp 5.60
15
Denver Broncos
Denver
10
exp 9.70
16
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
9
exp 8.75
17
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
9
exp 8.96
18
St. Louis Rams
St. Louis
8
exp 8.24
19
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
6
exp 6.37
20
New York Giants
New York
6
exp 6.57
21
Detroit Lions
Detroit
6
exp 6.72
22
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
5
exp 5.91
23
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
8
exp 8.91
24
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
6
exp 6.96
25
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
7
exp 8.06
26
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
7
exp 8.37
27
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
4
exp 5.57
28
Chicago Bears
Chicago
5
exp 6.91
29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
5
exp 7.94
30
Miami Dolphins
Miami
4
exp 7.06
31
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
5
exp 8.81
32
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
2
exp 6.24

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2004 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2004-09-09Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots69.2%24-27
2004-09-11Tennessee TitansatMiami Dolphins53.5%17-7
2004-09-12Detroit LionsatChicago Bears65.8%20-16
2004-09-12Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets66.0%24-31
2004-09-12Jacksonville JaguarsatBuffalo Bills62.9%13-10
2004-09-12Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos58.1%24-34
2004-09-12Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns44.7%3-20
2004-09-12Tampa Bay BuccaneersatWashington Redskins44.9%10-16
2004-09-12Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams81.1%10-17
2004-09-12San Diego ChargersatHouston Texans54.9%27-20
2004-09-12Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings61.9%17-35
2004-09-12New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles82.3%17-31
2004-09-12Oakland RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers64.8%21-24
2004-09-12Seattle SeahawksatNew Orleans Saints59.0%21-7
2004-09-12Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers64.5%21-19
2004-09-13Green Bay PackersatCarolina Panthers56.1%24-14
2004-09-19San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints57.6%27-30
2004-09-19Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packersshock80.2%21-10
2004-09-19Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals43.9%13-16
2004-09-19Buffalo BillsatOakland Raiders54.7%10-13
2004-09-19Denver BroncosatJacksonville Jaguars45.8%6-7
2004-09-19Cleveland BrownsatDallas Cowboys59.3%12-19
2004-09-19Seattle SeahawksatTampa Bay Buccaneers54.6%10-6
2004-09-19New England PatriotsatArizona Cardinals18.6%23-12
2004-09-19New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers48.4%34-28
2004-09-19Carolina PanthersatKansas City Chiefs58.3%28-17
2004-09-19Indianapolis ColtsatTennessee Titans66.6%31-17
2004-09-19Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants49.6%14-20
2004-09-19St. Louis RamsatAtlanta Falcons48.9%17-34
2004-09-19Houston TexansatDetroit Lions69.1%16-28
2004-09-19Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens62.2%13-30
2004-09-20Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles69.0%16-27
2004-09-26San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks70.3%0-34
2004-09-26Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings64.1%22-27
2004-09-26Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals48.4%23-9
2004-09-26San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos76.2%13-23
2004-09-26Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants52.8%10-27
2004-09-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatOakland Raiders51.2%20-30
2004-09-26Arizona CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons79.2%3-6
2004-09-26Houston TexansatKansas City Chiefs78.2%24-21
2004-09-26Green Bay PackersatIndianapolis Colts65.8%31-45
2004-09-26Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins67.6%13-3
2004-09-26Philadelphia EaglesatDetroit Lions35.0%30-13
2004-09-26Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans74.6%15-12
2004-09-26New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Rams63.8%28-25
2004-09-27Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins52.0%21-18
2004-10-03Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears35.3%19-9
2004-10-03Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers68.9%17-28
2004-10-03New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills27.3%31-17
2004-10-03Denver BroncosatTampa Bay Buccaneers45.9%16-13
2004-10-03Washington RedskinsatCleveland Browns59.9%13-17
2004-10-03New Orleans SaintsatArizona Cardinals35.3%10-34
2004-10-03Tennessee TitansatSan Diego Chargers35.6%17-38
2004-10-03Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars39.6%24-17
2004-10-03New York JetsatMiami Dolphins53.8%17-9
2004-10-03Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers66.2%27-10
2004-10-03New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers74.2%14-7
2004-10-03Oakland RaidersatHouston Texans46.0%17-30
2004-10-03St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers52.7%24-14
2004-10-04Kansas City ChiefsatBaltimore Ravens69.3%27-24
2004-10-10Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets74.7%14-16
2004-10-10Carolina PanthersatDenver Broncos66.1%17-20
2004-10-10Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers69.1%23-34
2004-10-10Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints60.0%20-17
2004-10-10Jacksonville JaguarsatSan Diego Chargers54.6%21-34
2004-10-10Oakland RaidersatIndianapolis Colts83.8%14-35
2004-10-10Baltimore RavensatWashington Redskins41.5%17-10
2004-10-10New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys63.7%26-10
2004-10-10Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots84.2%10-24
2004-10-10Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons75.1%17-10
2004-10-10St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawks66.3%33-27
2004-10-10Minnesota VikingsatHouston Texans40.3%34-28
2004-10-10Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers66.2%28-31
2004-10-11Tennessee TitansatGreen Bay Packers57.3%48-27
2004-10-17San Francisco 49ersatNew York Jets74.2%14-22
2004-10-17Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears67.5%13-10
2004-10-17Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns61.1%17-34
2004-10-17Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills54.4%13-20
2004-10-17Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders36.3%31-3
2004-10-17San Diego ChargersatAtlanta Falcons65.9%20-21
2004-10-17Kansas City ChiefsatJacksonville Jaguars53.7%16-22
2004-10-17Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys50.1%24-20
2004-10-17Carolina PanthersatPhiladelphia Eagles76.4%8-30
2004-10-17Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions56.5%38-10
2004-10-17Seattle SeahawksatNew England Patriots77.2%20-30
2004-10-17Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints45.2%38-31
2004-10-17Houston TexansatTennessee Titansshock81.0%20-10
2004-10-18Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSt. Louis Rams69.9%21-28
2004-10-24Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers63.4%7-19
2004-10-24Buffalo BillsatBaltimore Ravens72.6%6-20
2004-10-24Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns28.6%34-31
2004-10-24Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals34.9%17-25
2004-10-24San Diego ChargersatCarolina Panthers64.2%17-6
2004-10-24Atlanta FalconsatKansas City Chiefs52.7%10-56
2004-10-24Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Coltsshock80.8%27-24
2004-10-24Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers69.0%20-41
2004-10-24St. Louis RamsatMiami Dolphins41.2%14-31
2004-10-24Detroit LionsatNew York Giants69.9%28-13
2004-10-24New York JetsatNew England Patriots76.6%7-13
2004-10-24New Orleans SaintsatOakland Raiders55.3%31-26
2004-10-24Tennessee TitansatMinnesota Vikings64.5%3-20
2004-10-25Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals29.0%10-23
2004-10-31San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears57.1%13-23
2004-10-31Cincinnati BengalsatTennessee Titans69.3%20-27
2004-10-31Arizona CardinalsatBuffalo Bills63.2%14-38
2004-10-31Atlanta FalconsatDenver Broncos69.7%41-28
2004-10-31Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers74.5%14-42
2004-10-31Indianapolis ColtsatKansas City Chiefs42.1%35-45
2004-10-31Green Bay PackersatWashington Redskins41.1%28-14
2004-10-31Detroit LionsatDallas Cowboys54.0%21-31
2004-10-31Baltimore RavensatPhiladelphia Eagles73.7%10-15
2004-10-31New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings74.3%34-13
2004-10-31Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Texans48.5%6-20
2004-10-31Carolina PanthersatSeattle Seahawks65.3%17-23
2004-10-31New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers34.4%20-34
2004-11-01Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets70.3%14-41
2004-11-07Chicago BearsatNew York Giants69.5%28-21
2004-11-07Dallas CowboysatCincinnati Bengals54.5%3-26
2004-11-07New York JetsatBuffalo Bills41.2%17-22
2004-11-07Houston TexansatDenver Broncos69.3%13-31
2004-11-07Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens74.0%13-27
2004-11-07Kansas City ChiefsatTampa Bay Buccaneers50.4%31-34
2004-11-07Arizona CardinalsatMiami Dolphins69.6%24-23
2004-11-07New Orleans SaintsatSan Diego Chargers68.3%17-43
2004-11-07Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions66.5%17-10
2004-11-07Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers44.3%3-27
2004-11-07Oakland RaidersatCarolina Panthers71.4%27-24
2004-11-07New England PatriotsatSt. Louis Rams38.2%40-22
2004-11-07Seattle SeahawksatSan Francisco 49ers42.5%42-27
2004-11-08Minnesota VikingsatIndianapolis Colts69.0%28-31
2004-11-14Chicago BearsatTennessee Titans66.1%19-17
2004-11-14Cincinnati BengalsatWashington Redskins55.5%17-10
2004-11-14Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots84.4%6-29
2004-11-14Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns32.5%24-10
2004-11-14Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons63.8%14-24
2004-11-14New York GiantsatArizona Cardinals45.9%14-17
2004-11-14Kansas City ChiefsatNew Orleans Saints44.8%20-27
2004-11-14Houston TexansatIndianapolis Colts80.3%14-49
2004-11-14Detroit LionsatJacksonville Jaguars67.0%17-23
2004-11-14Baltimore RavensatNew York Jets58.0%20-17
2004-11-14Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers64.1%31-34
2004-11-14Seattle SeahawksatSt. Louis Rams53.8%12-23
2004-11-14Carolina PanthersatSan Francisco 49ers52.4%37-27
2004-11-15Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys28.2%49-21
2004-11-21San Francisco 49ersatTampa Bay Buccaneers74.0%3-35
2004-11-21Indianapolis ColtsatChicago Bears38.6%41-10
2004-11-21Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals36.0%19-14
2004-11-21St. Louis RamsatBuffalo Bills49.6%17-37
2004-11-21Denver BroncosatNew Orleans Saints45.7%34-13
2004-11-21New York JetsatCleveland Browns40.2%10-7
2004-11-21Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers66.8%10-35
2004-11-21San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders37.8%23-17
2004-11-21Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles87.4%6-28
2004-11-21Dallas CowboysatBaltimore Ravens80.4%10-30
2004-11-21Miami DolphinsatSeattle Seahawks69.8%17-24
2004-11-21Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants48.2%14-10
2004-11-21Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars56.9%18-15
2004-11-21Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings73.6%19-22
2004-11-21Green Bay PackersatHouston Texans38.5%16-13
2004-11-22New England PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs30.7%27-19
2004-11-25Chicago BearsatDallas Cowboys50.3%7-21
2004-11-25Indianapolis ColtsatDetroit Lions24.8%41-9
2004-11-28Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals67.1%48-58
2004-11-28Buffalo BillsatSeattle Seahawks65.0%38-9
2004-11-28Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncosshock82.4%25-24
2004-11-28Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers57.3%14-21
2004-11-28New York JetsatArizona Cardinals35.5%13-3
2004-11-28San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs51.2%34-31
2004-11-28Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers86.5%7-16
2004-11-28Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants28.9%27-6
2004-11-28New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons76.2%21-24
2004-11-28Jacksonville JaguarsatMinnesota Vikings66.4%16-27
2004-11-28Baltimore RavensatNew England Patriots75.5%3-24
2004-11-28Tennessee TitansatHouston Texans44.3%21-31
2004-11-28Miami DolphinsatSan Francisco 49ers46.3%24-17
2004-11-29St. Louis RamsatGreen Bay Packers69.3%17-45
2004-12-05San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams78.3%6-16
2004-12-05Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears43.7%14-24
2004-12-05Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens73.2%27-26
2004-12-05Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins46.6%42-32
2004-12-05Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers59.7%17-20
2004-12-05New England PatriotsatCleveland Browns15.7%42-15
2004-12-05Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers46.6%0-27
2004-12-05Arizona CardinalsatDetroit Lions60.8%12-26
2004-12-05Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders45.6%34-27
2004-12-05Tennessee TitansatIndianapolis Colts80.3%24-51
2004-12-05New York GiantsatWashington Redskins51.8%7-31
2004-12-05Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles71.0%17-47
2004-12-05Pittsburgh SteelersatJacksonville Jaguars31.7%17-16
2004-12-05Houston TexansatNew York Jets75.3%7-29
2004-12-05Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints47.6%32-21
2004-12-06Dallas CowboysatSeattle Seahawks68.9%43-39
2004-12-12San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals63.4%31-28
2004-12-12Chicago BearsatJacksonville Jaguars58.1%3-22
2004-12-12Cincinnati BengalsatNew England Patriots87.1%28-35
2004-12-12Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills81.5%7-37
2004-12-12Miami DolphinsatDenver Broncos74.1%17-20
2004-12-12Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Diego Chargers67.4%24-31
2004-12-12Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Texans25.1%23-14
2004-12-12Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins21.0%17-14
2004-12-12New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys65.9%27-13
2004-12-12Oakland RaidersatAtlanta Falcons79.0%10-35
2004-12-12New York GiantsatBaltimore Ravens79.0%14-37
2004-12-12New York JetsatPittsburgh Steelers68.8%6-17
2004-12-12Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers80.5%13-16
2004-12-12St. Louis RamsatCarolina Panthers63.2%7-20
2004-12-12Seattle SeahawksatMinnesota Vikings64.8%27-23
2004-12-13Kansas City ChiefsatTennessee Titans56.5%49-38
2004-12-18Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons59.5%31-34
2004-12-18Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants22.7%33-30
2004-12-18Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers48.8%26-16
2004-12-19Houston TexansatChicago Bears61.5%24-5
2004-12-19Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals45.0%33-17
2004-12-19Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs55.0%17-45
2004-12-19San Diego ChargersatCleveland Browns28.3%21-0
2004-12-19New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers68.4%21-17
2004-12-19St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals38.5%7-31
2004-12-19Baltimore RavensatIndianapolis Colts73.3%10-20
2004-12-19Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles89.5%7-12
2004-12-19Jacksonville JaguarsatGreen Bay Packers73.6%28-25
2004-12-19Seattle SeahawksatNew York Jets69.4%14-37
2004-12-19Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions45.9%28-27
2004-12-19Tennessee TitansatOakland Raiders45.4%35-40
2004-12-20New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphinsshock18.1%28-29
2004-12-24Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings49.4%34-31
2004-12-25Denver BroncosatTennessee Titans45.4%37-16
2004-12-25Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs80.8%30-31
2004-12-26Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions58.6%13-19
2004-12-26New York GiantsatCincinnati Bengalsstarters rested68.0%22-23
2004-12-26Cleveland BrownsatMiami Dolphins71.4%7-10
2004-12-26Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers51.8%37-20
2004-12-26Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawksstarters rested72.5%21-24
2004-12-26San Diego ChargersatIndianapolis Colts72.0%31-34
2004-12-26Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys55.2%10-13
2004-12-26Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saintsstarters rested45.2%13-26
2004-12-26Houston TexansatJacksonville Jaguars64.9%21-0
2004-12-26New England PatriotsatNew York Jets37.5%23-7
2004-12-26Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers72.8%7-20
2004-12-26Buffalo BillsatSan Francisco 49ers21.4%41-7
2004-12-27Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Rams22.2%7-20
2005-01-02San Francisco 49ersatNew England Patriots95.4%7-21
2005-01-02Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears31.6%31-14
2005-01-02Cincinnati BengalsatPhiladelphia Eaglesstarters rested83.4%38-10
2005-01-02Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Billsstarters rested48.9%29-24
2005-01-02Indianapolis ColtsatDenver Broncos37.2%14-33
2005-01-02Cleveland BrownsatHouston Texans78.3%22-14
2005-01-02Tampa Bay BuccaneersatArizona Cardinalsstarters rested47.2%7-12
2005-01-02Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargersstarters rested64.4%17-24
2005-01-02Minnesota VikingsatWashington Redskinsstarters rested50.5%18-21
2005-01-02Dallas CowboysatNew York Giantsstarters rested54.7%24-28
2005-01-02Miami DolphinsatBaltimore Ravens73.2%23-30
2005-01-02Atlanta FalconsatSeattle Seahawks53.0%26-28
2005-01-02Jacksonville JaguarsatOakland Raiders47.4%13-6
2005-01-02New York JetsatSt. Louis Rams46.9%29-32
2005-01-02Detroit LionsatTennessee Titansstarters rested59.0%19-24
2005-01-02New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers69.2%21-18
2005-01-08New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers67.2%20-17
2005-01-08St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawks58.7%27-20
2005-01-09Denver BroncosatIndianapolis Colts69.4%24-49
2005-01-09Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers75.1%31-17
2005-01-15St. Louis RamsatAtlanta Falcons58.5%17-47
2005-01-15New York JetsatPittsburgh Steelers76.0%17-20
2005-01-16Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots68.8%3-20
2005-01-16Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles71.6%14-27
2005-01-23Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles69.7%10-27
2005-01-23New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers49.7%41-27
2005-02-06Philadelphia EaglesvsNew England Patriots72.6%21-24

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.