The expectation ledger

The 2000 season, against expectation

Every game of 2000scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19992001→
Games
259
Model Brier
0.2216
Market Brier
0.2225
Longest odds beaten
18.5%
Carolina Panthers

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 2000.

1
New York Giants
New York
12
exp 8.89
2
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
10
exp 7.37
3
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
12
exp 9.49
4
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
11
exp 8.77
5
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
12
exp 10.13
6
Miami Dolphins
Miami
11
exp 9.25
7
Detroit Lions
Detroit
9
exp 7.66
8
Tennessee Titans
Nashville
13
exp 11.67
9
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
9
exp 7.91
10
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
9
exp 7.92
11
Denver Broncos
Denver
11
exp 9.93
12
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
10
exp 9.11
Show all 31 rows
13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
10
exp 9.53
14
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
11
exp 10.85
15
Chicago Bears
Chicago
5
exp 4.87
16
New York Jets
New York
9
exp 8.88
17
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
6
exp 6.23
18
St. Louis Rams
St. Louis
10
exp 10.55
19
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
8
exp 8.57
20
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
4
exp 4.70
21
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
7
exp 7.83
22
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
3
exp 3.85
23
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
6
exp 6.95
24
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
8
exp 9.27
25
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
7
exp 8.29
26
New England Patriots
Boston
5
exp 6.76
27
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
4
exp 5.92
28
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
5
exp 6.96
29
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
7
exp 9.30
30
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
3
exp 5.42
31
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
1
exp 5.19

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 2000 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
2000-09-03San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons67.0%28-36
2000-09-03Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings79.2%27-30
2000-09-03Tennessee TitansatBuffalo Bills54.0%13-16
2000-09-03Jacksonville JaguarsatCleveland Browns20.2%27-7
2000-09-03Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew England Patriots48.6%21-16
2000-09-03Arizona CardinalsatNew York Giants63.6%16-21
2000-09-03San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders67.1%6-9
2000-09-03Indianapolis ColtsatKansas City Chiefs56.5%27-14
2000-09-03Carolina PanthersatWashington Redskins67.5%17-20
2000-09-03Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys69.1%41-14
2000-09-03Seattle SeahawksatMiami Dolphins59.1%0-23
2000-09-03New York JetsatGreen Bay Packers55.1%20-16
2000-09-03Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints48.1%14-10
2000-09-03Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers53.1%16-0
2000-09-04Denver BroncosatSt. Louis Rams69.3%36-41
2000-09-10Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers78.7%0-41
2000-09-10Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals70.8%24-7
2000-09-10Green Bay PackersatBuffalo Bills68.8%18-27
2000-09-10Atlanta FalconsatDenver Broncos66.8%14-42
2000-09-10Dallas CowboysatArizona Cardinals53.0%31-32
2000-09-10New Orleans SaintsatSan Diego Chargers70.9%28-27
2000-09-10Kansas City ChiefsatTennessee Titans72.4%14-17
2000-09-10Oakland RaidersatIndianapolis Colts65.0%38-31
2000-09-10Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions50.0%10-15
2000-09-10Miami DolphinsatMinnesota Vikings68.9%7-13
2000-09-10New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles60.7%33-18
2000-09-10Jacksonville JaguarsatBaltimore Ravens46.5%36-39
2000-09-10St. Louis RamsatSeattle Seahawks38.4%37-34
2000-09-10Carolina PanthersatSan Francisco 49ers48.6%38-22
2000-09-11New England PatriotsatNew York Jets72.3%19-20
2000-09-17San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams87.7%24-41
2000-09-17New York GiantsatChicago Bears46.1%14-7
2000-09-17Cincinnati BengalsatJacksonville Jaguars87.0%0-13
2000-09-17Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets56.9%14-27
2000-09-17Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders60.7%33-24
2000-09-17Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns46.7%20-23
2000-09-17Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions44.0%31-10
2000-09-17San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs64.9%10-42
2000-09-17Baltimore RavensatMiami Dolphins57.0%6-19
2000-09-17Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers66.8%3-6
2000-09-17Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers64.4%15-10
2000-09-17Minnesota VikingsatNew England Patriots39.4%21-13
2000-09-17New Orleans SaintsatSeattle Seahawks71.1%10-20
2000-09-18Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins69.2%27-21
2000-09-24San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys74.7%41-24
2000-09-24Detroit LionsatChicago Bears48.3%21-14
2000-09-24Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens81.3%0-37
2000-09-24Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos68.3%23-22
2000-09-24Cleveland BrownsatOakland Raiders81.3%10-36
2000-09-24New York JetsatTampa Bay Buccaneers62.5%21-17
2000-09-24Green Bay PackersatArizona Cardinals46.3%29-3
2000-09-24Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers50.8%20-12
2000-09-24Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants62.8%16-6
2000-09-24New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins70.1%3-10
2000-09-24Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints49.4%21-7
2000-09-24St. Louis RamsatAtlanta Falcons35.7%41-20
2000-09-24Tennessee TitansatPittsburgh Steelers30.9%23-20
2000-09-25Jacksonville JaguarsatIndianapolis Colts51.8%14-43
2000-10-01Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packersshock79.2%27-24
2000-10-01Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals26.5%31-16
2000-10-01Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills58.8%18-16
2000-10-01New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos74.8%28-19
2000-10-01Baltimore RavensatCleveland Browns32.3%12-0
2000-10-01Tampa Bay BuccaneersatWashington Redskins47.8%17-20
2000-10-01San Diego ChargersatSt. Louis Rams86.9%31-57
2000-10-01Dallas CowboysatCarolina Panthers64.2%16-13
2000-10-01Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eagles60.1%10-38
2000-10-01New York GiantsatTennessee Titans74.7%14-28
2000-10-01Pittsburgh SteelersatJacksonville Jaguarsshock79.9%24-13
2000-10-01Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions39.0%31-24
2000-10-01Arizona CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers61.2%20-27
2000-10-02Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs61.5%17-24
2000-10-08New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears66.9%31-10
2000-10-08Tennessee TitansatCincinnati Bengals18.0%23-14
2000-10-08Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins59.6%13-22
2000-10-08Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers39.6%21-7
2000-10-08Cleveland BrownsatArizona Cardinals66.8%21-29
2000-10-08Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots43.6%16-24
2000-10-08Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles51.6%17-14
2000-10-08New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons52.4%13-6
2000-10-08Baltimore RavensatJacksonville Jaguars56.8%15-10
2000-10-08Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jetsshock81.2%20-3
2000-10-08Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions53.3%24-31
2000-10-08Seattle SeahawksatCarolina Panthers53.3%3-26
2000-10-08Oakland RaidersatSan Francisco 49ers41.2%34-28
2000-10-09Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings66.5%23-30
2000-10-15San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers71.3%28-31
2000-10-15Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears19.8%28-16
2000-10-15Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers82.2%0-15
2000-10-15San Diego ChargersatBuffalo Bills79.7%24-27
2000-10-15Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos86.1%10-44
2000-10-15Philadelphia EaglesatArizona Cardinals46.8%33-14
2000-10-15Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs56.1%20-17
2000-10-15Indianapolis ColtsatSeattle Seahawks43.9%37-24
2000-10-15Baltimore RavensatWashington Redskins58.5%3-10
2000-10-15Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants66.1%14-19
2000-10-15Atlanta FalconsatSt. Louis Rams87.0%29-45
2000-10-15New York JetsatNew England Patriots50.2%34-17
2000-10-15Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints45.8%6-24
2000-10-16Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Titans75.5%13-27
2000-10-19Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers70.7%28-14
2000-10-22San Francisco 49ersatCarolina Panthers66.0%16-34
2000-10-22Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles78.3%9-13
2000-10-22Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals22.4%21-31
2000-10-22Buffalo BillsatMinnesota Vikings74.2%27-31
2000-10-22Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers82.6%0-22
2000-10-22Arizona CardinalsatDallas Cowboys69.6%7-48
2000-10-22St. Louis RamsatKansas City Chiefs37.0%34-54
2000-10-22New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts73.4%23-30
2000-10-22Washington RedskinsatJacksonville Jaguars47.5%35-16
2000-10-22New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons57.3%21-19
2000-10-22Seattle SeahawksatOakland Raiders76.3%3-31
2000-10-22Tennessee TitansatBaltimore Ravens44.9%14-6
2000-10-23Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets61.7%37-40
2000-10-29Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns53.8%12-3
2000-10-29New York JetsatBuffalo Bills49.4%20-23
2000-10-29Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers39.6%13-41
2000-10-29New Orleans SaintsatArizona Cardinals46.2%21-10
2000-10-29Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers28.8%15-13
2000-10-29Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks39.6%24-19
2000-10-29Detroit LionsatIndianapolis Colts68.3%18-30
2000-10-29Jacksonville JaguarsatDallas Cowboys58.8%23-17
2000-10-29Green Bay PackersatMiami Dolphins68.7%20-28
2000-10-29Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants59.8%7-24
2000-10-29Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons48.5%12-13
2000-10-29Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens61.5%9-6
2000-10-29St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers24.2%34-24
2000-10-30Tennessee TitansatWashington Redskins50.2%27-21
2000-11-05San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints70.5%15-31
2000-11-05Indianapolis ColtsatChicago Bears22.5%24-27
2000-11-05Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals36.6%27-7
2000-11-05Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots46.8%16-13
2000-11-05Denver BroncosatNew York Jets69.4%30-23
2000-11-05New York GiantsatCleveland Browns23.0%24-3
2000-11-05Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons33.4%27-14
2000-11-05Washington RedskinsatArizona Cardinals23.8%15-16
2000-11-05San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks65.6%15-17
2000-11-05Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders62.1%31-49
2000-11-05Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles65.9%13-16
2000-11-05Miami DolphinsatDetroit Lions49.4%23-8
2000-11-05Carolina PanthersatSt. Louis Ramsshock81.5%27-24
2000-11-05Pittsburgh SteelersatTennessee Titans78.3%7-9
2000-11-06Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers38.7%20-26
2000-11-12Chicago BearsatBuffalo Bills82.9%3-20
2000-11-12Cincinnati BengalsatDallas Cowboys72.2%6-23
2000-11-12New England PatriotsatCleveland Browns30.1%11-19
2000-11-12Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers70.1%15-20
2000-11-12Arizona CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings88.2%14-31
2000-11-12Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers24.6%17-7
2000-11-12New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts62.7%15-23
2000-11-12Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers63.1%26-23
2000-11-12Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions73.4%10-13
2000-11-12St. Louis RamsatNew York Giants48.3%38-24
2000-11-12Seattle SeahawksatJacksonville Jaguars68.3%28-21
2000-11-12New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers61.4%20-10
2000-11-12Baltimore RavensatTennessee Titans78.5%24-23
2000-11-12Kansas City ChiefsatSan Francisco 49ers30.9%7-21
2000-11-13Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos49.8%24-27
2000-11-19Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears25.1%10-13
2000-11-19Cincinnati BengalsatNew England Patriots73.6%13-16
2000-11-19Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs50.0%21-17
2000-11-19San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos83.9%37-38
2000-11-19Cleveland BrownsatTennessee Titans93.5%10-24
2000-11-19Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles81.5%9-34
2000-11-19Indianapolis ColtsatGreen Bay Packers44.4%24-26
2000-11-19Dallas CowboysatBaltimore Ravens72.1%0-27
2000-11-19New York JetsatMiami Dolphins69.0%20-3
2000-11-19Detroit LionsatNew York Giants62.5%31-21
2000-11-19Jacksonville JaguarsatPittsburgh Steelers65.8%34-24
2000-11-19Carolina PanthersatMinnesota Vikings78.9%17-31
2000-11-19Oakland RaidersatNew Orleans Saints44.0%31-22
2000-11-19Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers61.6%6-16
2000-11-20Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Rams69.8%33-20
2000-11-23Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys31.2%27-15
2000-11-23New England PatriotsatDetroit Lions71.8%9-34
2000-11-26Chicago BearsatNew York Jets83.7%10-17
2000-11-26Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals35.8%48-28
2000-11-26Buffalo BillsatTampa Bay Buccaneers57.8%17-31
2000-11-26Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks42.1%38-31
2000-11-26Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens88.1%7-44
2000-11-26New York GiantsatArizona Cardinals34.0%31-7
2000-11-26Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers37.2%16-17
2000-11-26Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts61.1%17-14
2000-11-26Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins70.5%23-20
2000-11-26Atlanta FalconsatOakland Raiders87.3%14-41
2000-11-26Tennessee TitansatJacksonville Jaguars32.6%13-16
2000-11-26New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Rams75.8%31-24
2000-11-27Green Bay PackersatCarolina Panthers48.5%14-31
2000-11-30Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings71.6%17-24
2000-12-03San Francisco 49ersatSan Diego Chargers51.3%45-17
2000-12-03Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears42.4%28-6
2000-12-03Arizona CardinalsatCincinnati Bengals58.5%13-24
2000-12-03Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills55.4%33-6
2000-12-03Denver BroncosatNew Orleans Saints48.9%38-23
2000-12-03Cleveland BrownsatJacksonville Jaguars85.3%0-48
2000-12-03Dallas CowboysatTampa Bay Buccaneers82.0%7-27
2000-12-03Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets62.2%17-27
2000-12-03New York GiantsatWashington Redskins69.5%9-7
2000-12-03Tennessee TitansatPhiladelphia Eagles42.8%15-13
2000-12-03Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons47.4%30-10
2000-12-03St. Louis RamsatCarolina Panthers44.3%3-16
2000-12-03Oakland RaidersatPittsburgh Steelers39.4%20-21
2000-12-04Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots48.5%24-30
2000-12-10New England PatriotsatChicago Bears46.3%17-24
2000-12-10Cincinnati BengalsatTennessee Titans92.3%3-35
2000-12-10Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos77.8%24-31
2000-12-10Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns22.8%35-24
2000-12-10Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMiami Dolphins62.1%16-13
2000-12-10Arizona CardinalsatJacksonville Jaguars86.0%10-44
2000-12-10San Diego ChargersatBaltimore Ravens85.9%3-24
2000-12-10Carolina PanthersatKansas City Chiefs54.7%14-15
2000-12-10Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys35.0%13-32
2000-12-10Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Giants62.9%10-30
2000-12-10New York JetsatOakland Raiders59.9%7-31
2000-12-10Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers56.2%13-26
2000-12-10Minnesota VikingsatSt. Louis Rams44.1%29-40
2000-12-10New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers53.1%31-27
2000-12-11Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts62.8%20-44
2000-12-16Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers51.8%3-24
2000-12-16Oakland RaidersatSeattle Seahawks31.9%24-27
2000-12-17Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals28.1%14-17
2000-12-17New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills72.2%13-10
2000-12-17Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs38.7%7-20
2000-12-17Tennessee TitansatCleveland Browns11.1%24-0
2000-12-17Baltimore RavensatArizona Cardinals19.3%13-7
2000-12-17San Diego ChargersatCarolina Panthers80.9%22-30
2000-12-17Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins64.1%20-13
2000-12-17New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys43.8%17-13
2000-12-17Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints80.7%7-23
2000-12-17Detroit LionsatNew York Jets69.8%10-7
2000-12-17Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings70.8%33-28
2000-12-17Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers67.1%0-17
2000-12-18St. Louis RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers67.3%35-38
2000-12-23San Francisco 49ersatDenver Broncos76.9%9-38
2000-12-23Buffalo BillsatSeattle Seahawks56.4%42-23
2000-12-23Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Giants66.8%25-28
2000-12-24Chicago BearsatDetroit Lionsshock80.8%23-20
2000-12-24Cincinnati BengalsatPhiladelphia Eagles84.1%7-16
2000-12-24Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers47.8%14-17
2000-12-24Arizona CardinalsatWashington Redskins85.9%3-20
2000-12-24Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Diego Chargers30.7%34-21
2000-12-24Kansas City ChiefsatAtlanta Falcons31.5%13-29
2000-12-24Minnesota VikingsatIndianapolis Colts61.4%10-31
2000-12-24Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots36.8%27-24
2000-12-24New York JetsatBaltimore Ravens60.4%20-34
2000-12-24Carolina PanthersatOakland Raiders74.9%9-52
2000-12-24St. Louis RamsatNew Orleans Saints51.6%26-21
2000-12-25Dallas CowboysatTennessee Titans86.2%0-31
2000-12-30Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins54.5%17-23
2000-12-30St. Louis RamsatNew Orleans Saints46.3%28-31
2000-12-31Denver BroncosatBaltimore Ravens59.3%3-21
2000-12-31Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPhiladelphia Eagles48.3%3-21
2001-01-06Miami DolphinsatOakland Raiders62.8%0-27
2001-01-06New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings67.9%16-34
2001-01-07Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants57.7%10-20
2001-01-07Baltimore RavensatTennessee Titans67.7%24-10
2001-01-14Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants59.1%0-41
2001-01-14Baltimore RavensatOakland Raiders60.0%16-3
2001-01-28New York GiantsvsBaltimore Ravens60.7%7-34

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.