The expectation ledger

The 1998 season, against expectation

Every game of 1998scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19971999→
Games
251
Model Brier
0.1978
Market Brier
0.1929
Longest odds beaten
17.9%
New York Giants

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1998.

1
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
15
exp 10.65
2
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
14
exp 9.66
3
New York Jets
New York
12
exp 8.48
4
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
10
exp 7.95
5
Arizona Cardinals
Phoenix
9
exp 7.19
6
Denver Broncos
Denver
14
exp 12.58
7
Miami Dolphins
Miami
10
exp 8.64
8
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville
11
exp 9.69
9
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco-San Jose
8
exp 6.98
10
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
12
exp 11.32
11
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
10
exp 9.65
12
Tennessee Oilers
Nashville
8
exp 7.77
Show all 30 rows
13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
8
exp 7.85
14
New England Patriots
Boston
9
exp 8.99
15
New York Giants
New York
8
exp 8.00
16
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
8
exp 8.25
17
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
6
exp 6.30
18
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
11
exp 11.52
19
Baltimore Ravens
Washington-Baltimore
6
exp 6.71
20
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
5
exp 5.76
21
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
6
exp 6.87
22
Chicago Bears
Chicago
4
exp 5.30
23
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
7
exp 8.82
24
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
7
exp 8.92
25
Detroit Lions
Detroit
5
exp 7.03
26
Carolina Panthers
Charlotte
4
exp 6.14
27
St. Louis Rams
St. Louis
4
exp 6.17
28
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
3
exp 5.32
29
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
3
exp 5.73
30
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
3
exp 5.77

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1998 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1998-09-06Jacksonville JaguarsatChicago Bears43.8%24-23
1998-09-06Tennessee OilersatCincinnati Bengals56.5%23-14
1998-09-06Buffalo BillsatSan Diego Chargers53.7%14-16
1998-09-06Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings57.2%7-31
1998-09-06Arizona CardinalsatDallas Cowboys68.6%10-38
1998-09-06Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs79.5%8-28
1998-09-06Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts50.7%24-15
1998-09-06Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants63.1%24-31
1998-09-06Seattle SeahawksatPhiladelphia Eagles52.8%38-0
1998-09-06Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers62.6%19-14
1998-09-06Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers79.1%19-38
1998-09-06New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Rams63.6%24-17
1998-09-06Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens43.1%20-13
1998-09-06New York JetsatSan Francisco 49ers74.3%30-36
1998-09-07New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos70.2%21-27
1998-09-13Chicago BearsatPittsburgh Steelers77.8%12-17
1998-09-13Cincinnati BengalsatDetroit Lions63.5%34-28
1998-09-13Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins71.2%7-13
1998-09-13Dallas CowboysatDenver Broncos79.8%23-42
1998-09-13Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers81.4%15-23
1998-09-13Arizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks78.9%14-33
1998-09-13San Diego ChargersatTennessee Oilersshock75.6%13-7
1998-09-13Kansas City ChiefsatJacksonville Jaguars49.3%16-21
1998-09-13Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots77.0%6-29
1998-09-13Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons67.8%12-17
1998-09-13New York GiantsatOakland Raiders40.2%17-20
1998-09-13Baltimore RavensatNew York Jets63.4%24-10
1998-09-13Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints55.4%14-19
1998-09-13Minnesota VikingsatSt. Louis Rams41.8%38-31
1998-09-14San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins45.1%45-10
1998-09-20Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers68.5%15-27
1998-09-20Green Bay PackersatCincinnati Bengals31.3%13-6
1998-09-20St. Louis RamsatBuffalo Bills62.4%34-33
1998-09-20Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders27.3%34-17
1998-09-20Philadelphia EaglesatArizona Cardinals53.5%3-17
1998-09-20San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs78.1%7-23
1998-09-20Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets62.6%6-44
1998-09-20Washington RedskinsatSeattle Seahawks70.8%14-24
1998-09-20Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins51.5%0-21
1998-09-20Baltimore RavensatJacksonville Jaguars71.9%10-24
1998-09-20Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings69.6%6-29
1998-09-20Tennessee OilersatNew England Patriots67.7%16-27
1998-09-21Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants67.3%31-7
1998-09-27Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears35.8%31-28
1998-09-27Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens55.1%24-31
1998-09-27Denver BroncosatWashington Redskins27.3%38-16
1998-09-27Arizona CardinalsatSt. Louis Rams60.7%20-17
1998-09-27New York GiantsatSan Diego Chargers50.2%34-16
1998-09-27Kansas City ChiefsatPhiladelphia Eagles28.5%24-21
1998-09-27New Orleans SaintsatIndianapolis Colts48.2%19-13
1998-09-27Oakland RaidersatDallas Cowboys72.2%13-12
1998-09-27Jacksonville JaguarsatTennessee Oilers47.1%27-22
1998-09-27Green Bay PackersatCarolina Panthers24.5%37-30
1998-09-27Seattle SeahawksatPittsburgh Steelers57.5%10-13
1998-09-27Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers75.9%20-31
1998-09-28Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions52.3%6-27
1998-10-04San Francisco 49ersatBuffalo Bills27.7%21-26
1998-10-04Detroit LionsatChicago Bears46.4%27-31
1998-10-04Philadelphia EaglesatDenver Broncos90.6%16-41
1998-10-04New York GiantsatTampa Bay Buccaneers52.3%3-20
1998-10-04Oakland RaidersatArizona Cardinals55.7%23-20
1998-10-04San Diego ChargersatIndianapolis Colts52.8%12-17
1998-10-04Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs67.1%6-17
1998-10-04Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins48.3%31-10
1998-10-04Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets43.6%9-20
1998-10-04Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons65.6%23-51
1998-10-04New England PatriotsatNew Orleans Saints42.5%30-27
1998-10-05Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packersshock76.2%37-24
1998-10-11San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints37.4%31-0
1998-10-11Chicago BearsatArizona Cardinals57.0%7-20
1998-10-11Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals44.3%20-25
1998-10-11Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts50.0%31-24
1998-10-11Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks35.5%21-16
1998-10-11San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders68.2%6-7
1998-10-11Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots54.6%10-40
1998-10-11Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles54.1%12-17
1998-10-11Carolina PanthersatDallas Cowboys75.3%20-27
1998-10-11Atlanta FalconsatNew York Giants57.7%34-20
1998-10-11New York JetsatSt. Louis Rams46.0%10-30
1998-10-11Tennessee OilersatBaltimore Ravens58.4%12-8
1998-10-12Miami DolphinsatJacksonville Jaguars67.6%21-28
1998-10-15Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions30.8%20-27
1998-10-18Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears36.0%12-13
1998-10-18Cincinnati BengalsatTennessee Oilers61.0%14-44
1998-10-18Jacksonville JaguarsatBuffalo Bills38.0%16-17
1998-10-18Carolina PanthersatTampa Bay Buccaneers71.6%13-16
1998-10-18Arizona CardinalsatNew York Giants65.5%7-34
1998-10-18Philadelphia EaglesatSan Diego Chargers58.1%10-13
1998-10-18Washington RedskinsatMinnesota Vikings84.7%7-41
1998-10-18St. Louis RamsatMiami Dolphins72.0%0-14
1998-10-18New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons72.7%23-31
1998-10-18Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers71.7%6-16
1998-10-18Indianapolis ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers88.3%31-34
1998-10-19New York JetsatNew England Patriotsshock80.6%24-14
1998-10-25San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams27.4%28-10
1998-10-25Chicago BearsatTennessee Oilers74.7%23-20
1998-10-25Cincinnati BengalsatOakland Raiders59.1%10-27
1998-10-25Buffalo BillsatCarolina Panthers49.5%30-14
1998-10-25Jacksonville JaguarsatDenver Broncos74.8%24-37
1998-10-25Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints46.9%3-9
1998-10-25Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers39.6%27-20
1998-10-25New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins51.9%9-12
1998-10-25Atlanta FalconsatNew York Jets50.7%3-28
1998-10-25Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions39.9%34-13
1998-10-25Baltimore RavensatGreen Bay Packers82.4%10-28
1998-10-26Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs64.8%20-13
1998-11-01San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers58.6%22-36
1998-11-01Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals20.5%33-26
1998-11-01Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills51.9%24-30
1998-11-01Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers35.4%24-27
1998-11-01Arizona CardinalsatDetroit Lions69.5%17-15
1998-11-01New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs66.0%20-17
1998-11-01New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts28.6%21-16
1998-11-01New York GiantsatWashington Redskins44.5%14-21
1998-11-01St. Louis RamsatAtlanta Falcons75.1%15-37
1998-11-01Jacksonville JaguarsatBaltimore Ravens37.0%45-19
1998-11-01New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers48.9%17-31
1998-11-01Oakland RaidersatSeattle Seahawks68.1%31-18
1998-11-01Tennessee OilersatPittsburgh Steelers70.9%41-31
1998-11-02Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles35.6%34-0
1998-11-08St. Louis RamsatChicago Bears65.2%20-12
1998-11-08Cincinnati BengalsatJacksonville Jaguars80.7%11-24
1998-11-08Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets63.0%12-34
1998-11-08San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos92.3%10-27
1998-11-08Tennessee OilersatTampa Bay Buccaneers55.3%31-22
1998-11-08Washington RedskinsatArizona Cardinals60.1%27-29
1998-11-08Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks52.7%12-24
1998-11-08Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins81.2%14-27
1998-11-08New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys72.9%6-16
1998-11-08Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles44.4%9-10
1998-11-08Atlanta FalconsatNew England Patriots65.9%41-10
1998-11-08Oakland RaidersatBaltimore Ravens43.4%10-13
1998-11-08New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings84.0%24-31
1998-11-08Carolina PanthersatSan Francisco 49ers84.9%23-25
1998-11-09Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers42.0%20-27
1998-11-15San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons51.3%19-31
1998-11-15Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions67.0%3-26
1998-11-15Cincinnati BengalsatMinnesota Vikings84.3%3-24
1998-11-15New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills53.2%10-13
1998-11-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatJacksonville Jaguars76.3%24-29
1998-11-15Dallas CowboysatArizona Cardinals36.6%35-28
1998-11-15Baltimore RavensatSan Diego Chargers52.1%13-14
1998-11-15New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts27.5%23-24
1998-11-15Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins64.3%3-28
1998-11-15Miami DolphinsatCarolina Panthers39.1%13-9
1998-11-15Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants31.8%37-3
1998-11-15Seattle SeahawksatOakland Raiders55.0%17-20
1998-11-15St. Louis RamsatNew Orleans Saints59.6%3-24
1998-11-15Pittsburgh SteelersatTennessee Oilers57.1%14-23
1998-11-16Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs29.4%30-7
1998-11-22Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons84.9%13-20
1998-11-22Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals58.4%20-13
1998-11-22Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills78.8%11-34
1998-11-22Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos86.0%14-40
1998-11-22Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers59.8%28-25
1998-11-22Arizona CardinalsatWashington Redskins61.2%45-42
1998-11-22Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers40.3%37-38
1998-11-22Seattle SeahawksatDallas Cowboys69.3%22-30
1998-11-22Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants71.0%0-20
1998-11-22Jacksonville JaguarsatPittsburgh Steelers49.3%15-30
1998-11-22New York JetsatTennessee Oilers63.0%24-3
1998-11-22Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings57.0%14-28
1998-11-22Carolina PanthersatSt. Louis Rams59.2%24-20
1998-11-22New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers80.2%20-31
1998-11-23Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots55.2%23-26
1998-11-26Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys49.6%46-36
1998-11-26Pittsburgh SteelersatDetroit Lions45.1%16-19
1998-11-29Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears46.3%31-17
1998-11-29Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals29.7%34-17
1998-11-29Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots61.6%21-25
1998-11-29Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers13.7%31-16
1998-11-29Arizona CardinalsatKansas City Chiefs69.7%24-34
1998-11-29Indianapolis ColtsatBaltimore Ravens73.4%31-38
1998-11-29Washington RedskinsatOakland Raiders72.5%29-19
1998-11-29New Orleans SaintsatMiami Dolphins73.5%10-30
1998-11-29Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers90.4%16-24
1998-11-29Atlanta FalconsatSt. Louis Rams25.9%21-10
1998-11-29Carolina PanthersatNew York Jets81.3%21-48
1998-11-29Tennessee OilersatSeattle Seahawks54.5%18-20
1998-11-30New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers80.0%7-31
1998-12-03St. Louis RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles54.6%14-17
1998-12-06San Francisco 49ersatCarolina Panthers26.7%31-28
1998-12-06Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings92.0%22-48
1998-12-06Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals39.8%33-20
1998-12-06Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos86.8%31-35
1998-12-06New York GiantsatArizona Cardinals55.9%23-19
1998-12-06San Diego ChargersatWashington Redskins67.2%20-24
1998-12-06Indianapolis ColtsatAtlanta Falcons89.3%21-28
1998-12-06Dallas CowboysatNew Orleans Saints34.8%3-22
1998-12-06Miami DolphinsatOakland Raiders47.2%27-17
1998-12-06Detroit LionsatJacksonville Jaguars73.6%22-37
1998-12-06Seattle SeahawksatNew York Jets70.7%31-32
1998-12-06New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers62.6%23-9
1998-12-06Baltimore RavensatTennessee Oilers69.7%14-16
1998-12-07Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers35.5%22-24
1998-12-13Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers89.0%20-26
1998-12-13Cincinnati BengalsatIndianapolis Colts54.6%26-39
1998-12-13Oakland RaidersatBuffalo Bills69.7%21-44
1998-12-13Denver BroncosatNew York Giantsshock17.9%16-20
1998-12-13Pittsburgh SteelersatTampa Bay Buccaneers53.8%3-16
1998-12-13Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles50.6%20-17
1998-12-13San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks76.7%17-38
1998-12-13Dallas CowboysatKansas City Chiefs55.0%17-20
1998-12-13Washington RedskinsatCarolina Panthers50.0%28-25
1998-12-13New York JetsatMiami Dolphins54.5%21-16
1998-12-13Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints34.6%27-17
1998-12-13Tennessee OilersatJacksonville Jaguars71.2%16-13
1998-12-13New England PatriotsatSt. Louis Rams26.6%18-32
1998-12-13Minnesota VikingsatBaltimore Ravens24.6%38-28
1998-12-14Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers77.6%13-35
1998-12-19New York JetsatBuffalo Bills47.1%17-10
1998-12-19Tampa Bay BuccaneersatWashington Redskins51.2%16-20
1998-12-20San Francisco 49ersatNew England Patriots42.9%21-24
1998-12-20Baltimore RavensatChicago Bears44.9%3-24
1998-12-20Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelersshock81.0%25-24
1998-12-20New Orleans SaintsatArizona Cardinals55.0%17-19
1998-12-20Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers49.2%17-10
1998-12-20Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Giants53.1%7-28
1998-12-20Indianapolis ColtsatSeattle Seahawks81.0%23-27
1998-12-20Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys83.3%9-13
1998-12-20Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions35.7%24-17
1998-12-20Jacksonville JaguarsatMinnesota Vikings73.0%10-50
1998-12-20Tennessee OilersatGreen Bay Packers69.9%22-30
1998-12-20St. Louis RamsatCarolina Panthers57.7%13-20
1998-12-21Denver BroncosatMiami Dolphins31.8%21-31
1998-12-26Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders52.3%31-24
1998-12-26Minnesota VikingsatTennessee Oilers33.0%26-16
1998-12-27Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears22.1%16-13
1998-12-27Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCincinnati Bengals35.6%35-0
1998-12-27Buffalo BillsatNew Orleans Saints45.3%45-33
1998-12-27Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos81.0%21-28
1998-12-27San Diego ChargersatArizona Cardinals69.6%13-16
1998-12-27Carolina PanthersatIndianapolis Colts51.4%27-19
1998-12-27Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys66.8%7-23
1998-12-27Miami DolphinsatAtlanta Falcons68.1%16-38
1998-12-27New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles31.6%20-10
1998-12-27New England PatriotsatNew York Jets71.4%10-31
1998-12-27Detroit LionsatBaltimore Ravens50.4%10-19
1998-12-27St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers87.4%19-38
1998-12-28Pittsburgh SteelersatJacksonville Jaguars71.0%3-21
1999-01-02Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins62.6%17-24
1999-01-02Arizona CardinalsatDallas Cowboys75.5%20-7
1999-01-03New England PatriotsatJacksonville Jaguars68.2%10-25
1999-01-03Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers57.2%27-30
1999-01-09San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons62.2%18-20
1999-01-09Miami DolphinsatDenver Broncos76.4%3-38
1999-01-10Arizona CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings88.0%21-41
1999-01-10Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Jets65.0%24-34
1999-01-17New York JetsatDenver Broncos67.2%10-23
1999-01-17Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings68.7%30-27
1999-01-31Atlanta FalconsvsDenver Broncos57.5%19-34

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.