The expectation ledger

The 1995 season, against expectation

Every game of 1995scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
251
Model Brier
0.2267
Market Brier
0.2231
Longest odds beaten
7.5%
Washington Redskins

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1995.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1995 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1995-09-03San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints33.6%24-22
1995-09-03Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears58.5%14-31
1995-09-03Cincinnati BengalsatIndianapolis Colts70.5%24-21
1995-09-03Buffalo BillsatDenver Broncos59.8%7-22
1995-09-03Cleveland BrownsatNew England Patriots56.8%14-17
1995-09-03Tampa Bay BuccaneersatPhiladelphia Eagles66.1%21-6
1995-09-03Arizona CardinalsatWashington Redskins45.1%7-27
1995-09-03San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders53.1%7-17
1995-09-03Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks43.4%34-10
1995-09-03New York JetsatMiami Dolphins73.9%14-52
1995-09-03Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons78.9%20-23
1995-09-03Houston OilersatJacksonville Jaguars41.9%10-3
1995-09-03Detroit LionsatPittsburgh Steelers68.2%20-23
1995-09-03St. Louis RamsatGreen Bay Packers79.0%17-14
1995-09-04Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants45.1%35-0
1995-09-10Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals73.9%17-24
1995-09-10Carolina PanthersatBuffalo Bills80.4%9-31
1995-09-10Denver BroncosatDallas Cowboys77.3%21-31
1995-09-10Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCleveland Browns68.9%6-22
1995-09-10Philadelphia EaglesatArizona Cardinals64.0%31-19
1995-09-10Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers76.9%10-14
1995-09-10New York GiantsatKansas City Chiefs67.0%17-20
1995-09-10Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets55.6%27-24
1995-09-10Oakland RaidersatWashington Redskins45.7%20-8
1995-09-10Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots56.7%20-3
1995-09-10Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings55.9%10-20
1995-09-10New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Rams49.7%13-17
1995-09-10Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers36.4%34-17
1995-09-10Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers83.2%10-41
1995-09-11Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears59.1%27-24
1995-09-17Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers50.5%25-6
1995-09-17Cincinnati BengalsatSeattle Seahawks56.9%21-24
1995-09-17Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills62.9%14-20
1995-09-17Washington RedskinsatDenver Broncos70.5%31-38
1995-09-17Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers39.0%14-7
1995-09-17Arizona CardinalsatDetroit Lions66.0%20-17
1995-09-17San Diego ChargersatPhiladelphia Eagles49.3%27-21
1995-09-17Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs60.2%17-23
1995-09-17Dallas CowboysatMinnesota Vikings35.8%23-17
1995-09-17Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints60.6%27-24
1995-09-17New York GiantsatGreen Bay Packers66.4%6-14
1995-09-17Jacksonville JaguarsatNew York Jets75.3%10-27
1995-09-17St. Louis RamsatCarolina Panthers37.9%31-10
1995-09-17New England PatriotsatSan Francisco 49ers80.0%3-28
1995-09-18Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins56.7%10-23
1995-09-24Chicago BearsatSt. Louis Rams46.4%28-34
1995-09-24Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals58.4%38-28
1995-09-24Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers65.4%6-17
1995-09-24Kansas City ChiefsatCleveland Browns57.6%17-35
1995-09-24Washington RedskinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers60.7%6-14
1995-09-24Arizona CardinalsatDallas Cowboys84.4%20-34
1995-09-24Philadelphia EaglesatOakland Raiders71.1%17-48
1995-09-24New York JetsatAtlanta Falcons67.5%3-13
1995-09-24New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giants63.7%29-45
1995-09-24Green Bay PackersatJacksonville Jaguars20.0%24-14
1995-09-24Minnesota VikingsatPittsburgh Steelers71.9%44-24
1995-09-25San Francisco 49ersatDetroit Lions28.0%24-27
1995-10-01Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals24.9%26-23
1995-10-01Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks44.5%10-27
1995-10-01Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers34.0%20-13
1995-10-01Kansas City ChiefsatArizona Cardinals44.0%24-3
1995-10-01San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers54.4%16-31
1995-10-01St. Louis RamsatIndianapolis Colts54.6%18-21
1995-10-01Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins20.2%23-27
1995-10-01Philadelphia EaglesatNew Orleans Saints57.9%15-10
1995-10-01New England PatriotsatAtlanta Falcons57.3%17-30
1995-10-01Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Oilers80.4%17-16
1995-10-01Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets35.3%47-10
1995-10-01New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers80.3%6-20
1995-10-02Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns72.3%22-19
1995-10-08Carolina PanthersatChicago Bears87.8%27-31
1995-10-08Cincinnati BengalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers71.3%16-19
1995-10-08New York JetsatBuffalo Bills77.0%10-29
1995-10-08Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots60.5%37-3
1995-10-08Cleveland BrownsatDetroit Lions47.6%20-38
1995-10-08Arizona CardinalsatNew York Giants67.7%21-27
1995-10-08Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins79.8%27-24
1995-10-08Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles64.2%34-37
1995-10-08Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys71.8%24-34
1995-10-08Pittsburgh SteelersatJacksonville Jaguars19.4%16-20
1995-10-08Seattle SeahawksatOakland Raiders78.4%14-34
1995-10-08Houston OilersatMinnesota Vikings75.3%17-23
1995-10-09San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs63.4%23-29
1995-10-12Atlanta FalconsatSt. Louis Rams52.5%19-21
1995-10-15San Francisco 49ersatIndianapolis Colts30.2%17-18
1995-10-15Chicago BearsatJacksonville Jaguars27.2%30-27
1995-10-15Seattle SeahawksatBuffalo Bills73.2%21-27
1995-10-15Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers45.9%17-20
1995-10-15Washington RedskinsatArizona Cardinals59.6%20-24
1995-10-15Dallas CowboysatSan Diego Chargers39.7%23-9
1995-10-15New England PatriotsatKansas City Chiefs79.0%26-31
1995-10-15Miami DolphinsatNew Orleans Saints32.0%30-33
1995-10-15Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants63.9%17-14
1995-10-15New York JetsatCarolina Panthers42.3%15-26
1995-10-15Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers63.7%21-30
1995-10-16Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos46.7%0-27
1995-10-19Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelersshock81.5%27-9
1995-10-22San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams30.7%44-10
1995-10-22Houston OilersatChicago Bears75.0%32-35
1995-10-22Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos51.2%21-7
1995-10-22Jacksonville JaguarsatCleveland Brownsshock86.8%23-15
1995-10-22Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers55.6%24-21
1995-10-22San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks43.4%35-25
1995-10-22Indianapolis ColtsatOakland Raiders69.5%17-30
1995-10-22Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins43.7%30-36
1995-10-22Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets25.4%16-17
1995-10-22Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers64.2%21-38
1995-10-22New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers37.1%3-20
1995-10-23Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots43.4%14-27
1995-10-29Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals45.7%29-26
1995-10-29Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins67.5%6-23
1995-10-29Tampa Bay BuccaneersatHouston Oilers51.0%7-19
1995-10-29Seattle SeahawksatArizona Cardinals64.3%14-20
1995-10-29New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts75.7%10-17
1995-10-29New York GiantsatWashington Redskins50.5%24-15
1995-10-29Dallas CowboysatAtlanta Falcons33.2%28-13
1995-10-29St. Louis RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles64.1%9-20
1995-10-29Jacksonville JaguarsatPittsburgh Steelers78.6%7-24
1995-10-29Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions44.0%16-24
1995-10-29Carolina PanthersatNew England Patriots77.6%20-17
1995-10-29New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ersshock89.7%11-7
1995-10-30Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings56.2%14-6
1995-11-05Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Bears67.8%37-34
1995-11-05Oakland RaidersatCincinnati Bengals32.8%20-17
1995-11-05Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts58.1%16-10
1995-11-05Arizona CardinalsatDenver Broncos70.0%6-38
1995-11-05Houston OilersatCleveland Browns70.6%37-10
1995-11-05Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers52.6%24-14
1995-11-05Washington RedskinsatKansas City Chiefs85.0%3-24
1995-11-05Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons57.2%22-34
1995-11-05New York GiantsatSeattle Seahawks40.7%28-30
1995-11-05New England PatriotsatNew York Jets44.6%20-7
1995-11-05Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings48.4%24-27
1995-11-05St. Louis RamsatNew Orleans Saints57.7%10-19
1995-11-05Carolina PanthersatSan Francisco 49ersshock90.8%13-7
1995-11-06Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys83.3%12-34
1995-11-12San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys72.9%38-20
1995-11-12Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers60.6%28-35
1995-11-12Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers71.2%32-25
1995-11-12Atlanta FalconsatBuffalo Bills58.6%17-23
1995-11-12Denver BroncosatPhiladelphia Eagles52.5%13-31
1995-11-12Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions66.9%24-27
1995-11-12Minnesota VikingsatArizona Cardinals47.1%30-24
1995-11-12Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers41.2%22-7
1995-11-12Indianapolis ColtsatNew Orleans Saints56.9%14-17
1995-11-12New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins78.1%34-17
1995-11-12Oakland RaidersatNew York Giants45.4%17-13
1995-11-12Seattle SeahawksatJacksonville Jaguars48.6%47-30
1995-11-12Carolina PanthersatSt. Louis Rams64.8%17-28
1995-11-13Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers67.0%3-20
1995-11-19Detroit LionsatChicago Bears63.2%24-17
1995-11-19Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals41.9%49-31
1995-11-19Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets28.9%28-26
1995-11-19San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos62.0%27-30
1995-11-19Green Bay PackersatCleveland Browns41.3%31-20
1995-11-19Jacksonville JaguarsatTampa Bay Buccaneers76.1%16-17
1995-11-19Arizona CardinalsatCarolina Panthers52.9%7-27
1995-11-19Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs83.9%13-20
1995-11-19Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots67.3%24-10
1995-11-19Seattle SeahawksatWashington Redskins55.4%27-20
1995-11-19Dallas CowboysatOakland Raiders48.4%34-21
1995-11-19New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles65.1%19-28
1995-11-19St. Louis RamsatAtlanta Falcons68.6%6-31
1995-11-19New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings68.5%24-43
1995-11-20San Francisco 49ersatMiami Dolphins44.4%44-20
1995-11-23Kansas City ChiefsatDallas Cowboys64.0%12-24
1995-11-23Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions57.0%38-44
1995-11-26Chicago BearsatNew York Giants54.1%27-24
1995-11-26Cincinnati BengalsatJacksonville Jaguars44.0%17-13
1995-11-26New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills68.1%35-25
1995-11-26Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers46.8%33-42
1995-11-26Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns39.7%20-17
1995-11-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers78.8%13-35
1995-11-26Atlanta FalconsatArizona Cardinals38.3%37-40
1995-11-26Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts52.3%28-36
1995-11-26Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins35.3%14-7
1995-11-26New York JetsatSeattle Seahawks76.4%16-10
1995-11-26Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints66.0%26-34
1995-11-26St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers88.1%13-41
1995-11-27Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers45.6%6-12
1995-11-30New York GiantsatArizona Cardinals51.2%10-6
1995-12-03Cincinnati BengalsatGreen Bay Packers81.8%10-24
1995-12-03Jacksonville JaguarsatDenver Broncos84.5%23-31
1995-12-03Cleveland BrownsatSan Diego Chargers71.3%13-31
1995-12-03Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings73.4%17-31
1995-12-03Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders45.6%29-23
1995-12-03Indianapolis ColtsatCarolina Panthers40.0%10-13
1995-12-03Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboysshock92.5%24-17
1995-12-03Atlanta FalconsatMiami Dolphins60.7%20-21
1995-12-03Philadelphia EaglesatSeattle Seahawks39.0%14-26
1995-12-03St. Louis RamsatNew York Jets49.2%23-20
1995-12-03New Orleans SaintsatNew England Patriots66.4%31-17
1995-12-03Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers73.2%7-21
1995-12-03Buffalo BillsatSan Francisco 49ers82.3%17-27
1995-12-04Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions62.9%7-27
1995-12-09Cleveland BrownsatMinnesota Vikings76.7%11-27
1995-12-09Arizona CardinalsatSan Diego Chargers77.1%25-28
1995-12-10San Francisco 49ersatCarolina Panthers18.6%31-10
1995-12-10Chicago BearsatCincinnati Bengals45.3%10-16
1995-12-10Buffalo BillsatSt. Louis Rams48.7%45-27
1995-12-10Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos67.8%31-27
1995-12-10Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers30.4%10-13
1995-12-10Indianapolis ColtsatJacksonville Jaguars28.4%41-31
1995-12-10Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants67.7%13-20
1995-12-10Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles37.1%17-20
1995-12-10New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons60.7%14-19
1995-12-10New York JetsatNew England Patriots76.9%28-31
1995-12-10Detroit LionsatHouston Oilers42.8%24-17
1995-12-10Pittsburgh SteelersatOakland Raiders52.9%29-10
1995-12-11Kansas City ChiefsatMiami Dolphins37.9%6-13
1995-12-16Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints42.9%34-23
1995-12-16New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers77.1%27-41
1995-12-17Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears66.0%10-31
1995-12-17Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns54.6%10-26
1995-12-17Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills55.7%20-23
1995-12-17Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs78.6%17-20
1995-12-17Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles79.2%20-21
1995-12-17San Diego ChargersatIndianapolis Colts55.8%27-24
1995-12-17Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Rams59.6%35-23
1995-12-17New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys80.4%20-21
1995-12-17Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers40.2%17-21
1995-12-17Jacksonville JaguarsatDetroit Lions90.7%0-44
1995-12-17New York JetsatHouston Oilers73.9%6-23
1995-12-17Oakland RaidersatSeattle Seahawks53.0%10-44
1995-12-18Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers79.4%30-37
1995-12-23Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers33.3%37-10
1995-12-23San Diego ChargersatNew York Giants49.6%27-17
1995-12-23New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts62.9%7-10
1995-12-24San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons27.3%27-28
1995-12-24Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears52.5%14-20
1995-12-24Minnesota VikingsatCincinnati Bengals37.9%24-27
1995-12-24Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills70.8%28-17
1995-12-24Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders59.0%31-28
1995-12-24Cleveland BrownsatJacksonville Jaguars36.1%21-24
1995-12-24Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs77.7%3-26
1995-12-24Carolina PanthersatWashington Redskins62.2%17-20
1995-12-24Miami DolphinsatSt. Louis Rams34.6%41-22
1995-12-24New Orleans SaintsatNew York Jets37.7%12-0
1995-12-24Pittsburgh SteelersatGreen Bay Packers56.7%19-24
1995-12-25Dallas CowboysatArizona Cardinals21.2%37-13
1995-12-30Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills50.9%22-37
1995-12-30Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles46.9%37-58
1995-12-31Indianapolis ColtsatSan Diego Chargers68.5%35-20
1995-12-31Atlanta FalconsatGreen Bay Packers74.6%20-37
1996-01-06Buffalo BillsatPittsburgh Steelers71.0%21-40
1996-01-06Green Bay PackersatSan Francisco 49ers69.5%27-17
1996-01-07Indianapolis ColtsatKansas City Chiefs74.9%10-7
1996-01-07Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys74.1%11-30
1996-01-14Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers68.5%16-20
1996-01-14Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys60.9%27-38
1996-01-28Pittsburgh SteelersvsDallas Cowboys59.5%17-27

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.