The expectation ledger

The 1996 season, against expectation

Every game of 1996scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

Games
251
Model Brier
0.2130
Market Brier
0.2102
Longest odds beaten
15.9%
New Orleans Saints

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1996.

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1996 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1996-09-01Cincinnati BengalsatSt. Louis Rams16-26
1996-09-01Buffalo BillsatNew York Giants54.0%23-20
1996-09-01New York JetsatDenver Broncos60.7%6-31
1996-09-01Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers33.6%34-3
1996-09-01Arizona CardinalsatIndianapolis Colts13-20
1996-09-01Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers63.0%7-29
1996-09-01Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers44.4%20-19
1996-09-01Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins31.1%17-14
1996-09-01New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins66.1%10-24
1996-09-01Atlanta FalconsatCarolina Panthers49.6%6-29
1996-09-01Pittsburgh SteelersatJacksonville Jaguars27.0%9-24
1996-09-01Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings54.5%13-17
1996-09-01Oakland RaidersatBaltimore Ravens34.7%14-19
1996-09-01New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers76.4%11-27
1996-09-02Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears39.0%6-22
1996-09-08Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins44.6%3-10
1996-09-08Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers74.6%14-27
1996-09-08New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills68.5%10-17
1996-09-08Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks53.2%30-20
1996-09-08Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions76.2%6-21
1996-09-08Miami DolphinsatArizona Cardinals39.1%38-10
1996-09-08Oakland RaidersatKansas City Chiefs76.9%3-19
1996-09-08Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets31.3%21-7
1996-09-08New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys78.6%0-27
1996-09-08Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons49.3%23-17
1996-09-08Houston OilersatJacksonville Jaguars45.6%34-27
1996-09-08Carolina PanthersatNew Orleans Saints60.9%22-20
1996-09-08Baltimore RavensatPittsburgh Steelers71.2%17-31
1996-09-08St. Louis RamsatSan Francisco 49ers83.6%0-34
1996-09-09Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers70.4%13-39
1996-09-15Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears54.9%20-14
1996-09-15New Orleans SaintsatCincinnati Bengals52.1%15-30
1996-09-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDenver Broncos77.5%23-27
1996-09-15Arizona CardinalsatNew England Patriots68.4%0-31
1996-09-15San Diego ChargersatGreen Bay Packers71.2%10-42
1996-09-15Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks35.4%35-17
1996-09-15Indianapolis ColtsatDallas Cowboys68.3%25-24
1996-09-15Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants55.9%31-10
1996-09-15New York JetsatMiami Dolphins85.0%27-36
1996-09-15Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles55.6%17-24
1996-09-15Jacksonville JaguarsatOakland Raiders69.2%3-17
1996-09-15Baltimore RavensatHouston Oilers68.7%13-29
1996-09-16Buffalo BillsatPittsburgh Steelers61.8%6-24
1996-09-22San Francisco 49ersatCarolina Panthers35.1%7-23
1996-09-22Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions63.6%16-35
1996-09-22Dallas CowboysatBuffalo Bills44.1%7-10
1996-09-22Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs70.8%14-17
1996-09-22Seattle SeahawksatTampa Bay Buccaneers53.3%17-13
1996-09-22Arizona CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints69.9%28-14
1996-09-22San Diego ChargersatOakland Raiders48.7%40-34
1996-09-22Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Rams45.9%17-10
1996-09-22Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons45.3%33-18
1996-09-22New York GiantsatNew York Jets47.1%13-6
1996-09-22Jacksonville JaguarsatNew England Patriots72.7%25-28
1996-09-22Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings46.3%21-30
1996-09-23Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts59.5%6-10
1996-09-29Oakland RaidersatChicago Bears64.2%17-19
1996-09-29Denver BroncosatCincinnati Bengals44.5%14-10
1996-09-29Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers33.0%27-0
1996-09-29St. Louis RamsatArizona Cardinals59.5%28-31
1996-09-29Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers46.9%19-22
1996-09-29New York JetsatWashington Redskins83.6%16-31
1996-09-29Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants34.9%10-15
1996-09-29Carolina PanthersatJacksonville Jaguars36.0%14-24
1996-09-29Green Bay PackersatSeattle Seahawks31.6%31-10
1996-09-29New Orleans SaintsatBaltimore Ravens62.6%10-17
1996-09-29Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers66.6%16-30
1996-09-29Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers81.0%17-39
1996-09-30Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles54.2%23-19
1996-10-06San Francisco 49ersatSt. Louis Rams26.7%28-11
1996-10-06Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears35.0%37-6
1996-10-06Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals47.4%30-27
1996-10-06Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills51.4%13-16
1996-10-06San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos56.7%17-28
1996-10-06Seattle SeahawksatMiami Dolphins75.9%22-15
1996-10-06Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions79.0%24-28
1996-10-06Jacksonville JaguarsatNew Orleans Saints58.7%13-17
1996-10-06Oakland RaidersatNew York Jets39.2%34-13
1996-10-06Carolina PanthersatMinnesota Vikings71.5%12-14
1996-10-06New England PatriotsatBaltimore Ravens54.0%46-38
1996-10-07Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs63.9%17-7
1996-10-13Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints48.6%24-27
1996-10-13Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers83.5%10-20
1996-10-13Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills62.0%21-7
1996-10-13Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers27.1%13-24
1996-10-13Arizona CardinalsatDallas Cowboys83.7%3-17
1996-10-13Baltimore RavensatIndianapolis Colts78.9%21-26
1996-10-13Washington RedskinsatNew England Patriots54.1%27-22
1996-10-13Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants45.1%19-10
1996-10-13Houston OilersatAtlanta Falcons43.1%23-13
1996-10-13New York JetsatJacksonville Jaguars71.7%17-21
1996-10-13Detroit LionsatOakland Raiders42.0%21-37
1996-10-13St. Louis RamsatCarolina Panthers73.4%13-45
1996-10-14San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers65.9%20-23
1996-10-17Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs76.1%16-34
1996-10-20Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets26.2%25-22
1996-10-20Baltimore RavensatDenver Broncos79.7%34-45
1996-10-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatArizona Cardinals60.7%9-13
1996-10-20New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts72.8%27-9
1996-10-20New York GiantsatWashington Redskins74.1%21-31
1996-10-20Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys85.7%28-32
1996-10-20Miami DolphinsatPhiladelphia Eagles61.0%28-35
1996-10-20Jacksonville JaguarsatSt. Louis Rams55.1%14-17
1996-10-20New Orleans SaintsatCarolina Panthers70.8%7-19
1996-10-20Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers45.7%13-23
1996-10-20Cincinnati BengalsatSan Francisco 49ers84.0%21-28
1996-10-21Oakland RaidersatSan Diego Chargers66.7%23-14
1996-10-27San Francisco 49ersatHouston Oilers49.8%10-9
1996-10-27Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals63.5%21-28
1996-10-27Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots59.8%25-28
1996-10-27Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos55.7%7-34
1996-10-27Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers90.2%7-13
1996-10-27New York JetsatArizona Cardinalsshock77.5%31-21
1996-10-27San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks49.1%13-32
1996-10-27Indianapolis ColtsatWashington Redskins63.1%16-31
1996-10-27Dallas CowboysatMiami Dolphins46.2%29-10
1996-10-27Carolina PanthersatPhiladelphia Eagles69.7%9-20
1996-10-27Pittsburgh SteelersatAtlanta Falcons28.4%20-17
1996-10-27New York GiantsatDetroit Lions75.2%35-7
1996-10-27St. Louis RamsatBaltimore Ravens63.6%31-37
1996-10-28Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings71.2%15-13
1996-11-03San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints26.0%24-17
1996-11-03Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears71.9%10-13
1996-11-03Cincinnati BengalsatBaltimore Ravens58.6%24-21
1996-11-03Washington RedskinsatBuffalo Bills48.5%13-38
1996-11-03Arizona CardinalsatNew York Giants73.2%8-16
1996-11-03San Diego ChargersatIndianapolis Colts62.8%26-19
1996-11-03Kansas City ChiefsatMinnesota Vikings51.7%21-6
1996-11-03Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys67.3%31-21
1996-11-03Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots61.3%23-42
1996-11-03Carolina PanthersatAtlanta Falcons42.1%17-20
1996-11-03Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers82.4%18-28
1996-11-03St. Louis RamsatPittsburgh Steelers87.1%6-42
1996-11-03Houston OilersatSeattle Seahawks47.8%16-23
1996-11-04Denver BroncosatOakland Raiders47.0%22-21
1996-11-10Chicago BearsatDenver Broncos76.9%12-17
1996-11-10Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals32.1%24-34
1996-11-10Buffalo BillsatPhiladelphia Eagles71.8%24-17
1996-11-10Oakland RaidersatTampa Bay Buccaneers36.9%17-20
1996-11-10Arizona CardinalsatWashington Redskinsshock81.4%37-34
1996-11-10Green Bay PackersatKansas City Chiefs45.7%20-27
1996-11-10Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins60.3%13-37
1996-11-10Atlanta FalconsatSt. Louis Rams52.0%16-59
1996-11-10New York GiantsatCarolina Panthers57.9%17-27
1996-11-10Baltimore RavensatJacksonville Jaguars53.8%27-30
1996-11-10New England PatriotsatNew York Jets25.1%31-27
1996-11-10Houston OilersatNew Orleans Saints37.4%31-14
1996-11-10Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks59.4%23-42
1996-11-10Dallas CowboysatSan Francisco 49ers62.0%20-17
1996-11-11Detroit LionsatSan Diego Chargers63.2%21-27
1996-11-17Chicago BearsatKansas City Chiefs78.9%10-14
1996-11-17Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills73.2%17-31
1996-11-17Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots49.9%34-8
1996-11-17Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Diego Chargersshock77.3%25-17
1996-11-17New York GiantsatArizona Cardinals47.0%23-31
1996-11-17New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts79.5%29-34
1996-11-17Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles70.0%26-21
1996-11-17Miami DolphinsatHouston Oilers64.4%23-20
1996-11-17New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons58.3%15-17
1996-11-17Jacksonville JaguarsatPittsburgh Steelers84.1%3-28
1996-11-17Seattle SeahawksatDetroit Lions52.0%16-17
1996-11-17Carolina PanthersatSt. Louis Rams41.9%20-10
1996-11-17Minnesota VikingsatOakland Raiders63.1%16-13
1996-11-17Baltimore RavensatSan Francisco 49ers86.2%20-38
1996-11-18Green Bay PackersatDallas Cowboys54.3%6-21
1996-11-24San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins46.6%19-16
1996-11-24Detroit LionsatChicago Bears56.9%14-31
1996-11-24Atlanta FalconsatCincinnati Bengals70.4%31-41
1996-11-24New York JetsatBuffalo Bills89.1%10-35
1996-11-24Denver BroncosatMinnesota Vikings35.8%21-17
1996-11-24New Orleans SaintsatTampa Bay Buccaneers68.1%7-13
1996-11-24Philadelphia EaglesatArizona Cardinals35.0%30-36
1996-11-24San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs77.2%28-14
1996-11-24Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots67.2%13-27
1996-11-24Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants28.2%6-20
1996-11-24Jacksonville JaguarsatBaltimore Ravens61.4%28-25
1996-11-24Green Bay PackersatSt. Louis Rams20.5%24-9
1996-11-24Carolina PanthersatHouston Oilers62.2%31-6
1996-11-24Oakland RaidersatSeattle Seahawks63.6%27-21
1996-11-25Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins50.8%24-17
1996-11-28Kansas City ChiefsatDetroit Lions39.7%28-24
1996-11-28Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys71.3%10-21
1996-12-01Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers80.4%17-28
1996-12-01Cincinnati BengalsatJacksonville Jaguars46.4%27-30
1996-12-01Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts39.5%10-13
1996-12-01Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos80.4%7-34
1996-12-01Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCarolina Panthers75.3%0-24
1996-12-01Arizona CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings66.0%17-41
1996-12-01New England PatriotsatSan Diego Chargers58.2%45-7
1996-12-01Miami DolphinsatOakland Raiders58.4%7-17
1996-12-01New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles67.8%0-24
1996-12-01Houston OilersatNew York Jets29.4%35-10
1996-12-01St. Louis RamsatNew Orleans Saints58.5%26-10
1996-12-01Pittsburgh SteelersatBaltimore Ravens23.9%17-31
1996-12-02San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons20.5%34-10
1996-12-05Philadelphia EaglesatIndianapolis Colts44.8%10-37
1996-12-08St. Louis RamsatChicago Bears71.9%9-35
1996-12-08Baltimore RavensatCincinnati Bengals65.9%14-21
1996-12-08Buffalo BillsatSeattle Seahawks45.7%18-26
1996-12-08Denver BroncosatGreen Bay Packers58.2%6-41
1996-12-08Washington RedskinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers44.0%10-24
1996-12-08Dallas CowboysatArizona Cardinals27.7%10-6
1996-12-08San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers69.7%3-16
1996-12-08New York GiantsatMiami Dolphins63.4%17-7
1996-12-08Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints54.8%31-15
1996-12-08Jacksonville JaguarsatHouston Oilers75.1%23-17
1996-12-08New York JetsatNew England Patriots90.6%10-34
1996-12-08Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions50.6%24-22
1996-12-08Carolina PanthersatSan Francisco 49ers70.8%30-24
1996-12-09Kansas City ChiefsatOakland Raiders48.6%7-26
1996-12-14San Diego ChargersatChicago Bears61.5%14-27
1996-12-14Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Jets22.8%21-20
1996-12-15San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers52.9%25-15
1996-12-15Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers62.2%21-13
1996-12-15Oakland RaidersatDenver Broncos71.3%19-24
1996-12-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings68.1%10-21
1996-12-15Washington RedskinsatArizona Cardinals46.6%26-27
1996-12-15Indianapolis ColtsatKansas City Chiefs68.1%24-19
1996-12-15New England PatriotsatDallas Cowboys66.9%6-12
1996-12-15St. Louis RamsatAtlanta Falcons60.2%34-27
1996-12-15New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giantsshock84.0%17-3
1996-12-15Seattle SeahawksatJacksonville Jaguars47.3%13-20
1996-12-15Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions23.1%31-3
1996-12-15Baltimore RavensatCarolina Panthers83.7%16-27
1996-12-16Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins47.2%14-16
1996-12-21New England PatriotsatNew York Giants40.0%23-22
1996-12-21New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Rams67.4%13-14
1996-12-22Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers47.5%19-34
1996-12-22Indianapolis ColtsatCincinnati Bengals53.1%24-31
1996-12-22Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills57.9%9-20
1996-12-22Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers31.0%10-16
1996-12-22Arizona CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles75.0%19-29
1996-12-22Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins34.2%10-37
1996-12-22Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets28.6%31-28
1996-12-22Atlanta FalconsatJacksonville Jaguars71.9%17-19
1996-12-22Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers81.3%10-38
1996-12-22Pittsburgh SteelersatCarolina Panthers65.7%14-18
1996-12-22Seattle SeahawksatOakland Raiders68.5%28-21
1996-12-22Houston OilersatBaltimore Ravens48.3%24-21
1996-12-23Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers85.4%14-24
1996-12-28Jacksonville JaguarsatBuffalo Bills73.4%30-27
1996-12-28Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys72.0%15-40
1996-12-29Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers64.5%14-42
1996-12-29Philadelphia EaglesatSan Francisco 49ers74.1%0-14
1997-01-04San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers66.3%14-35
1997-01-04Jacksonville JaguarsatDenver Broncosshock79.0%30-27
1997-01-05Dallas CowboysatCarolina Panthers57.5%17-26
1997-01-05Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots61.0%3-28
1997-01-12Jacksonville JaguarsatNew England Patriots74.2%6-20
1997-01-12Carolina PanthersatGreen Bay Packers73.2%13-30
1997-01-26New England PatriotsvsGreen Bay Packers69.1%21-35

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.