The expectation ledger
The 1991 season, against expectation
Every game of 1991scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
235
Model Brier
0.2013
Market Brier
0.1952
Longest odds beaten
13.3%
Dallas Cowboys
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1991.
Show all 28 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1991 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991-09-01 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 61.9% | 6-10 |
| 1991-09-01 | Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos | 52.5% | 14-45 |
| 1991-09-01 | Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills | 68.5% | 31-35 |
| 1991-09-01 | Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns | 52.9% | 26-14 |
| 1991-09-01 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew York Jets | 58.6% | 13-16 |
| 1991-09-01 | Phoenix CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams | 67.4% | 24-14 |
| 1991-09-01 | San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers | 66.3% | 20-26 |
| 1991-09-01 | Atlanta FalconsatKansas City Chiefs | 76.2% | 3-14 |
| 1991-09-01 | New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts | 78.5% | 16-7 |
| 1991-09-01 | Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins | 71.8% | 0-45 |
| 1991-09-01 | Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers | 43.1% | 20-3 |
| 1991-09-01 | Los Angeles RaidersatHouston Oilers | 53.7% | 17-47 |
| 1991-09-01 | Seattle SeahawksatNew Orleans Saints | 57.8% | 24-27 |
| 1991-09-02 | San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants | 56.8% | 14-16 |
| 1991-09-08 | Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 42.0% | 21-20 |
| 1991-09-08 | Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals | 49.4% | 30-7 |
| 1991-09-08 | Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills | 72.3% | 34-52 |
| 1991-09-08 | Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Raiders | 63.1% | 13-16 |
| 1991-09-08 | Cleveland BrownsatNew England Patriots | 60.1% | 20-0 |
| 1991-09-08 | Phoenix CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 75.1% | 26-10 |
| 1991-09-08 | New Orleans SaintsatKansas City Chiefs | 65.8% | 17-10 |
| 1991-09-08 | Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins | 72.6% | 6-17 |
| 1991-09-08 | Minnesota VikingsatAtlanta Falcons | 48.9% | 20-19 |
| 1991-09-08 | Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giantsshock | 81.9% | 19-13 |
| 1991-09-08 | New York JetsatSeattle Seahawks | 70.4% | 13-20 |
| 1991-09-08 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 65.1% | 14-23 |
| 1991-09-08 | San Diego ChargersatSan Francisco 49ers | 80.3% | 14-34 |
| 1991-09-09 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 39.8% | 33-31 |
| 1991-09-15 | San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings | 37.5% | 14-17 |
| 1991-09-15 | New York GiantsatChicago Bears | 49.8% | 17-20 |
| 1991-09-15 | Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns | 50.7% | 13-14 |
| 1991-09-15 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 27.1% | 23-20 |
| 1991-09-15 | Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos | 55.3% | 10-16 |
| 1991-09-15 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers | 58.6% | 13-15 |
| 1991-09-15 | Phoenix CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 73.0% | 0-34 |
| 1991-09-15 | Atlanta FalconsatSan Diego Chargers | 64.5% | 13-10 |
| 1991-09-15 | Indianapolis ColtsatLos Angeles Raiders | 73.5% | 0-16 |
| 1991-09-15 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 47.8% | 24-0 |
| 1991-09-15 | Miami DolphinsatDetroit Lions | 46.7% | 13-17 |
| 1991-09-15 | New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers | 81.6% | 6-20 |
| 1991-09-15 | Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints | 69.3% | 7-24 |
| 1991-09-16 | Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers | 65.2% | 7-17 |
| 1991-09-22 | Washington RedskinsatCincinnati Bengals | 35.1% | 34-27 |
| 1991-09-22 | Buffalo BillsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 24.0% | 17-10 |
| 1991-09-22 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 70.3% | 19-27 |
| 1991-09-22 | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Giants | 80.8% | 10-13 |
| 1991-09-22 | Dallas CowboysatPhoenix Cardinals | 67.2% | 17-9 |
| 1991-09-22 | Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs | 62.3% | 13-20 |
| 1991-09-22 | Detroit LionsatIndianapolis Colts | 48.8% | 33-24 |
| 1991-09-22 | Green Bay PackersatMiami Dolphins | 76.0% | 13-16 |
| 1991-09-22 | Pittsburgh SteelersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 63.5% | 14-23 |
| 1991-09-22 | Los Angeles RaidersatAtlanta Falcons | 40.7% | 17-21 |
| 1991-09-22 | Houston OilersatNew England Patriots | 21.8% | 20-24 |
| 1991-09-22 | Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints | 67.1% | 0-26 |
| 1991-09-22 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 79.3% | 10-27 |
| 1991-09-23 | New York JetsatChicago Bears | 76.7% | 13-19 |
| 1991-09-29 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Raiders | 44.6% | 6-12 |
| 1991-09-29 | Chicago BearsatBuffalo Bills | 73.3% | 20-35 |
| 1991-09-29 | Denver BroncosatMinnesota Vikings | 54.5% | 13-6 |
| 1991-09-29 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions | 75.1% | 3-31 |
| 1991-09-29 | New England PatriotsatPhoenix Cardinals | 72.2% | 10-24 |
| 1991-09-29 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers | 41.1% | 14-13 |
| 1991-09-29 | Indianapolis ColtsatSeattle Seahawks | 71.8% | 3-31 |
| 1991-09-29 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 39.0% | 16-21 |
| 1991-09-29 | Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets | 38.1% | 23-41 |
| 1991-09-29 | New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons | 38.8% | 27-6 |
| 1991-09-29 | Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Rams | 65.8% | 21-23 |
| 1991-09-30 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 67.1% | 0-23 |
| 1991-10-06 | Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears | 43.5% | 20-7 |
| 1991-10-06 | Seattle SeahawksatCincinnati Bengals | 48.8% | 13-7 |
| 1991-10-06 | Denver BroncosatHouston Oilers | 63.1% | 14-42 |
| 1991-10-06 | New York JetsatCleveland Browns | 53.7% | 17-14 |
| 1991-10-06 | Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 33.2% | 13-14 |
| 1991-10-06 | Phoenix CardinalsatNew York Giants | 73.2% | 9-20 |
| 1991-10-06 | San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Raiders | 77.4% | 21-13 |
| 1991-10-06 | Pittsburgh SteelersatIndianapolis Colts | 39.9% | 21-3 |
| 1991-10-06 | Dallas CowboysatGreen Bay Packers | 48.1% | 20-17 |
| 1991-10-06 | Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots | 34.1% | 20-10 |
| 1991-10-06 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 67.2% | 20-24 |
| 1991-10-07 | Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs | 40.3% | 6-33 |
| 1991-10-13 | San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons | 32.1% | 34-39 |
| 1991-10-13 | Cincinnati BengalsatDallas Cowboys | 68.4% | 23-35 |
| 1991-10-13 | Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills | 88.4% | 6-42 |
| 1991-10-13 | Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins | 88.8% | 17-42 |
| 1991-10-13 | Phoenix CardinalsatMinnesota Vikings | 60.7% | 7-34 |
| 1991-10-13 | San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Rams | 60.5% | 24-30 |
| 1991-10-13 | Miami DolphinsatKansas City Chiefs | 67.7% | 7-42 |
| 1991-10-13 | New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 49.6% | 13-6 |
| 1991-10-13 | Houston OilersatNew York Jets | 38.4% | 23-20 |
| 1991-10-13 | Los Angeles RaidersatSeattle Seahawks | 60.1% | 23-20 |
| 1991-10-14 | New York GiantsatPittsburgh Steelers | 52.6% | 23-20 |
| 1991-10-17 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 39.3% | 10-0 |
| 1991-10-20 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 46.7% | 16-19 |
| 1991-10-20 | Cleveland BrownsatSan Diego Chargers | 66.8% | 30-24 |
| 1991-10-20 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints | 86.3% | 7-23 |
| 1991-10-20 | Atlanta FalconsatPhoenix Cardinals | 54.5% | 10-16 |
| 1991-10-20 | New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts | 45.6% | 17-6 |
| 1991-10-20 | Houston OilersatMiami Dolphins | 44.2% | 17-13 |
| 1991-10-20 | Minnesota VikingsatNew England Patriots | 35.6% | 23-26 |
| 1991-10-20 | Los Angeles RamsatLos Angeles Raiders | 68.1% | 17-20 |
| 1991-10-20 | Seattle SeahawksatPittsburgh Steelers | 60.6% | 27-7 |
| 1991-10-20 | Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers | 65.6% | 3-35 |
| 1991-10-21 | Cincinnati BengalsatBuffalo Bills | 85.8% | 16-35 |
| 1991-10-27 | San Francisco 49ersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 47.5% | 23-7 |
| 1991-10-27 | Chicago BearsatNew Orleans Saints | 72.3% | 20-17 |
| 1991-10-27 | Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers | 84.6% | 3-35 |
| 1991-10-27 | Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots | 31.0% | 9-6 |
| 1991-10-27 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 48.1% | 14-17 |
| 1991-10-27 | Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 60.6% | 27-0 |
| 1991-10-27 | Minnesota VikingsatPhoenix Cardinals | 55.8% | 28-0 |
| 1991-10-27 | San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks | 76.8% | 9-20 |
| 1991-10-27 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 46.9% | 17-13 |
| 1991-10-27 | Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions | 61.2% | 10-34 |
| 1991-10-27 | Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons | 55.8% | 14-31 |
| 1991-10-28 | Los Angeles RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 66.0% | 21-24 |
| 1991-11-03 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 62.3% | 10-20 |
| 1991-11-03 | Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals | 54.4% | 21-23 |
| 1991-11-03 | New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 90.6% | 17-22 |
| 1991-11-03 | Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos | 69.6% | 13-20 |
| 1991-11-03 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings | 79.7% | 13-28 |
| 1991-11-03 | Phoenix CardinalsatDallas Cowboys | 69.1% | 7-27 |
| 1991-11-03 | Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts | 35.8% | 10-6 |
| 1991-11-03 | Houston OilersatWashington Redskins | 67.8% | 13-16 |
| 1991-11-03 | Green Bay PackersatNew York Jets | 67.3% | 16-19 |
| 1991-11-03 | New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams | 33.9% | 24-17 |
| 1991-11-03 | Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ersshock | 79.5% | 17-14 |
| 1991-11-04 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 47.4% | 7-30 |
| 1991-11-10 | San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints | 61.6% | 3-10 |
| 1991-11-10 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals | 50.4% | 33-27 |
| 1991-11-10 | Buffalo BillsatGreen Bay Packers | 24.3% | 34-24 |
| 1991-11-10 | Los Angeles RaidersatDenver Broncos | 62.1% | 17-16 |
| 1991-11-10 | Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns | 41.6% | 32-30 |
| 1991-11-10 | Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 31.4% | 21-30 |
| 1991-11-10 | New York GiantsatPhoenix Cardinals | 36.1% | 21-14 |
| 1991-11-10 | Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers | 36.1% | 14-17 |
| 1991-11-10 | Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Rams | 33.9% | 27-20 |
| 1991-11-10 | Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jetsshock | 78.5% | 28-27 |
| 1991-11-10 | Atlanta FalconsatWashington Redskins | 84.1% | 17-56 |
| 1991-11-10 | Dallas CowboysatHouston Oilers | 75.5% | 23-26 |
| 1991-11-10 | New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 80.2% | 20-30 |
| 1991-11-11 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 49.9% | 34-17 |
| 1991-11-17 | Chicago BearsatIndianapolis Colts | 22.3% | 31-17 |
| 1991-11-17 | Cincinnati BengalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 79.2% | 10-17 |
| 1991-11-17 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 68.4% | 24-20 |
| 1991-11-17 | Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers | 84.7% | 24-28 |
| 1991-11-17 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons | 74.2% | 7-43 |
| 1991-11-17 | New Orleans SaintsatSan Diego Chargers | 27.3% | 21-24 |
| 1991-11-17 | Washington RedskinsatPittsburgh Steelers | 26.6% | 41-14 |
| 1991-11-17 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants | 69.1% | 9-22 |
| 1991-11-17 | New York JetsatNew England Patriots | 38.6% | 28-21 |
| 1991-11-17 | Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions | 69.3% | 10-21 |
| 1991-11-17 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers | 45.1% | 35-21 |
| 1991-11-17 | Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Raiders | 60.1% | 7-31 |
| 1991-11-17 | Phoenix CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers | 84.6% | 10-14 |
| 1991-11-18 | Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins | 36.8% | 41-27 |
| 1991-11-24 | Miami DolphinsatChicago Bears | 75.2% | 16-13 |
| 1991-11-24 | Los Angeles RaidersatCincinnati Bengals | 30.8% | 38-14 |
| 1991-11-24 | Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriotsshock | 13.4% | 13-16 |
| 1991-11-24 | Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks | 51.1% | 10-13 |
| 1991-11-24 | Kansas City ChiefsatCleveland Browns | 31.4% | 15-20 |
| 1991-11-24 | New York GiantsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 26.7% | 21-14 |
| 1991-11-24 | Philadelphia EaglesatPhoenix Cardinals | 33.5% | 34-14 |
| 1991-11-24 | San Diego ChargersatNew York Jets | 64.8% | 3-24 |
| 1991-11-24 | Indianapolis ColtsatGreen Bay Packers | 65.6% | 10-14 |
| 1991-11-24 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskinsshock | 86.7% | 24-21 |
| 1991-11-24 | Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints | 76.2% | 23-20 |
| 1991-11-24 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 60.1% | 34-14 |
| 1991-11-24 | Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers | 34.5% | 14-26 |
| 1991-11-25 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 30.6% | 33-10 |
| 1991-11-28 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 51.3% | 6-16 |
| 1991-11-28 | Pittsburgh SteelersatDallas Cowboys | 60.1% | 10-20 |
| 1991-12-01 | New York GiantsatCincinnati Bengals | 26.7% | 24-27 |
| 1991-12-01 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 78.8% | 13-24 |
| 1991-12-01 | New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos | 84.7% | 3-20 |
| 1991-12-01 | Cleveland BrownsatIndianapolis Colts | 42.5% | 31-0 |
| 1991-12-01 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMiami Dolphins | 81.0% | 14-33 |
| 1991-12-01 | Los Angeles RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 34.5% | 9-7 |
| 1991-12-01 | Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks | 53.6% | 19-6 |
| 1991-12-01 | Washington RedskinsatLos Angeles Rams | 18.2% | 27-6 |
| 1991-12-01 | Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons | 76.6% | 31-35 |
| 1991-12-01 | New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers | 62.0% | 24-38 |
| 1991-12-02 | Philadelphia EaglesatHouston Oilers | 63.6% | 13-6 |
| 1991-12-08 | San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks | 39.1% | 24-22 |
| 1991-12-08 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 82.8% | 13-27 |
| 1991-12-08 | Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Raiders | 49.0% | 30-27 |
| 1991-12-08 | Denver BroncosatCleveland Browns | 42.5% | 17-7 |
| 1991-12-08 | Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 37.5% | 26-24 |
| 1991-12-08 | Washington RedskinsatPhoenix Cardinals | 14.8% | 20-14 |
| 1991-12-08 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 81.4% | 17-20 |
| 1991-12-08 | Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots | 65.3% | 17-23 |
| 1991-12-08 | New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys | 50.2% | 14-23 |
| 1991-12-08 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 55.0% | 19-14 |
| 1991-12-08 | Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams | 37.9% | 31-14 |
| 1991-12-08 | New York JetsatDetroit Lions | 69.2% | 20-34 |
| 1991-12-08 | Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers | 71.7% | 6-31 |
| 1991-12-09 | Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins | 77.9% | 13-37 |
| 1991-12-14 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears | 87.4% | 0-27 |
| 1991-12-14 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Francisco 49ers | 65.7% | 14-28 |
| 1991-12-15 | Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 72.3% | 10-17 |
| 1991-12-15 | Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts | 11.4% | 35-7 |
| 1991-12-15 | Phoenix CardinalsatDenver Broncos | 85.7% | 19-24 |
| 1991-12-15 | Houston OilersatCleveland Browns | 36.7% | 17-14 |
| 1991-12-15 | Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers | 40.1% | 30-38 |
| 1991-12-15 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 79.8% | 17-34 |
| 1991-12-15 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 69.0% | 25-13 |
| 1991-12-15 | Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons | 65.8% | 13-26 |
| 1991-12-15 | New England PatriotsatNew York Jets | 76.4% | 6-3 |
| 1991-12-15 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 28.8% | 21-17 |
| 1991-12-15 | Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings | 75.5% | 14-20 |
| 1991-12-16 | Los Angeles RaidersatNew Orleans Saints | 55.9% | 0-27 |
| 1991-12-21 | Houston OilersatNew York Giants | 50.1% | 20-24 |
| 1991-12-21 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings | 76.4% | 27-7 |
| 1991-12-22 | New England PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals | 57.9% | 7-29 |
| 1991-12-22 | Detroit LionsatBuffalo Bills | 72.4% | 17-14 |
| 1991-12-22 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 36.4% | 17-14 |
| 1991-12-22 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 65.8% | 10-17 |
| 1991-12-22 | Indianapolis ColtsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 65.4% | 3-17 |
| 1991-12-22 | New Orleans SaintsatPhoenix Cardinals | 25.3% | 27-3 |
| 1991-12-22 | Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Raiders | 55.0% | 27-21 |
| 1991-12-22 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 37.7% | 22-24 |
| 1991-12-22 | Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys | 62.3% | 27-31 |
| 1991-12-22 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 67.4% | 23-20 |
| 1991-12-22 | Los Angeles RamsatSeattle Seahawks | 76.1% | 9-23 |
| 1991-12-23 | Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers | 69.8% | 14-52 |
| 1991-12-28 | Los Angeles RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 68.9% | 6-10 |
| 1991-12-28 | Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints | 67.0% | 27-20 |
| 1991-12-29 | Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears | 55.8% | 17-13 |
| 1991-12-29 | New York JetsatHouston Oilers | 73.8% | 10-17 |
| 1992-01-04 | Houston OilersatDenver Broncos | 60.4% | 24-26 |
| 1992-01-04 | Atlanta FalconsatWashington Redskins | 76.6% | 7-24 |
| 1992-01-05 | Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills | 66.2% | 14-37 |
| 1992-01-05 | Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions | 59.1% | 6-38 |
| 1992-01-12 | Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills | 69.5% | 7-10 |
| 1992-01-12 | Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins | 71.2% | 10-41 |
| 1992-01-26 | Buffalo BillsvsWashington Redskins | 57.3% | 24-37 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.