The expectation ledger

The 1990 season, against expectation

Every game of 1990scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19891991→
Games
235
Model Brier
0.2154
Market Brier
0.2112
Longest odds beaten
11.4%
Los Angeles Rams

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1990.

1
Los Angeles Raiders
Los Angeles
12
exp 9.20
2
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
7
exp 4.94
3
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
9
exp 7.02
4
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
11
exp 9.23
5
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
14
exp 12.55
6
Chicago Bears
Chicago
11
exp 9.59
7
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
10
exp 9.32
8
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
9
exp 8.55
9
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
9
exp 8.89
10
New York Jets
New York
6
exp 6.11
11
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
7
exp 7.18
12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
6
exp 6.46
Show all 21 rows
13
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
8
exp 8.50
14
Phoenix Cardinals
Phoenix
5
exp 5.51
15
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
6
exp 7.10
16
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
6
exp 7.76
17
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
6
exp 8.11
18
Denver Broncos
Denver
5
exp 8.07
19
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
3
exp 6.23
20
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
5
exp 8.46
21
New England Patriots
Boston
1
exp 4.71

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1990 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1990-09-09Seattle SeahawksatChicago Bears56.9%0-17
1990-09-09New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals74.9%20-25
1990-09-09Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills61.9%10-26
1990-09-09Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Raiders49.4%9-14
1990-09-09Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns41.4%3-13
1990-09-09Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions68.9%38-21
1990-09-09Phoenix CardinalsatWashington Redskins77.4%0-31
1990-09-09San Diego ChargersatDallas Cowboys40.9%14-17
1990-09-09Minnesota VikingsatKansas City Chiefs52.9%21-24
1990-09-09Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots38.2%27-24
1990-09-09Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants20-27
1990-09-09Houston OilersatAtlanta Falcons27-47
1990-09-09Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers43.7%24-36
1990-09-10San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints25.2%13-12
1990-09-16Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers45.7%31-13
1990-09-16Cincinnati BengalsatSan Diego Chargers47.2%21-16
1990-09-16Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins7-30
1990-09-16Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jetsshock21.9%21-24
1990-09-16Los Angeles RamsatTampa Bay Buccaneers41.6%35-14
1990-09-16Phoenix CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles59.6%23-21
1990-09-16New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts67.4%16-14
1990-09-16New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys16.4%28-7
1990-09-16Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions14-21
1990-09-16Los Angeles RaidersatSeattle Seahawks32.0%17-13
1990-09-16New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings55.6%3-32
1990-09-16Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers48.8%9-20
1990-09-16Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers59.2%13-26
1990-09-17Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos63.1%23-24
1990-09-23Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears52.5%16-19
1990-09-23New England PatriotsatCincinnati Bengals72.5%7-41
1990-09-23Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos74.3%31-34
1990-09-23San Diego ChargersatCleveland Browns71.8%24-14
1990-09-23Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers55.2%20-23
1990-09-23Phoenix CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints74.9%7-28
1990-09-23Kansas City ChiefsatGreen Bay Packers54.0%17-3
1990-09-23Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Oilers53.2%10-24
1990-09-23Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins83.2%15-19
1990-09-23Miami DolphinsatNew York Giants69.1%3-20
1990-09-23Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Rams70.4%27-21
1990-09-23Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Raiders59.6%3-20
1990-09-23Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers90.1%13-19
1990-09-24Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets43.6%30-7
1990-09-30Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Raiders62.0%10-24
1990-09-30Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills58.7%28-29
1990-09-30Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs65.2%0-34
1990-09-30Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings75.0%23-20
1990-09-30Washington RedskinsatPhoenix Cardinals35.8%38-10
1990-09-30Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers60.7%17-7
1990-09-30Indianapolis ColtsatPhiladelphia Eagles69.3%24-23
1990-09-30Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants87.5%17-31
1990-09-30Miami DolphinsatPittsburgh Steelers59.5%28-6
1990-09-30New York JetsatNew England Patriots65.3%37-13
1990-09-30Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions57.3%24-21
1990-10-01Cincinnati BengalsatSeattle Seahawks38.1%16-31
1990-10-07San Francisco 49ersatHouston Oilers29.3%24-21
1990-10-07Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears66.0%13-27
1990-10-07Cincinnati BengalsatLos Angeles Rams62.3%34-31
1990-10-07Los Angeles RaidersatBuffalo Bills57.4%24-38
1990-10-07Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys42.4%10-14
1990-10-07San Diego ChargersatPittsburgh Steelers62.2%14-36
1990-10-07Kansas City ChiefsatIndianapolis Colts45.1%19-23
1990-10-07New York JetsatMiami Dolphins73.0%16-20
1990-10-07New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons36.8%27-28
1990-10-07Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings73.8%34-27
1990-10-07Seattle SeahawksatNew England Patriots49.2%33-20
1990-10-08Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos69.4%30-29
1990-10-14San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons18.4%45-35
1990-10-14Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears57.5%9-38
1990-10-14Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers49.4%17-48
1990-10-14Pittsburgh SteelersatDenver Broncos66.3%34-17
1990-10-14Cleveland BrownsatNew Orleans Saints66.4%20-25
1990-10-14Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers57.4%14-26
1990-10-14Dallas CowboysatPhoenix Cardinals62.0%3-20
1990-10-14San Diego ChargersatNew York Jets59.7%39-3
1990-10-14Detroit LionsatKansas City Chiefs72.0%24-43
1990-10-14New York GiantsatWashington Redskins54.5%24-20
1990-10-14Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Raiders67.6%17-24
1990-10-15Minnesota VikingsatPhiladelphia Eagles62.8%24-32
1990-10-18New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins80.9%10-17
1990-10-21New York JetsatBuffalo Bills82.2%27-30
1990-10-21Denver BroncosatIndianapolis Colts57.0%27-17
1990-10-21Dallas CowboysatTampa Bay Buccaneers74.7%17-13
1990-10-21Phoenix CardinalsatNew York Giants85.5%19-20
1990-10-21Los Angeles RaidersatSan Diego Chargers45.6%24-9
1990-10-21Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks46.4%7-19
1990-10-21Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins62.9%7-13
1990-10-21Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams74.9%24-44
1990-10-21New Orleans SaintsatHouston Oilers55.4%10-23
1990-10-21Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Francisco 49ers82.0%7-27
1990-10-22Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns52.5%34-13
1990-10-28Chicago BearsatPhoenix Cardinals35.6%31-21
1990-10-28Cincinnati BengalsatAtlanta Falcons34.2%17-38
1990-10-28Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots28.0%27-10
1990-10-28Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Diego Chargers61.3%10-41
1990-10-28Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts45.0%27-7
1990-10-28Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants66.9%10-21
1990-10-28Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys35.5%21-20
1990-10-28New York JetsatHouston Oilersshock79.3%17-12
1990-10-28Detroit LionsatNew Orleans Saints71.3%27-10
1990-10-28Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers50.9%10-24
1990-10-28Cleveland BrownsatSan Francisco 49ers88.9%17-20
1990-10-29Los Angeles RamsatPittsburgh Steelers58.1%10-41
1990-11-04San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers21.4%24-20
1990-11-04Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers34.9%26-6
1990-11-04New Orleans SaintsatCincinnati Bengals63.2%21-7
1990-11-04Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns36.3%42-0
1990-11-04Denver BroncosatMinnesota Vikings48.7%22-27
1990-11-04Phoenix CardinalsatMiami Dolphins82.9%3-23
1990-11-04San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks63.9%31-14
1990-11-04Los Angeles RaidersatKansas City Chiefs52.0%7-9
1990-11-04Washington RedskinsatDetroit Lions46.9%41-38
1990-11-04Dallas CowboysatNew York Jets66.8%9-24
1990-11-04New England PatriotsatPhiladelphia Eagles81.1%20-48
1990-11-04Atlanta FalconsatPittsburgh Steelers75.5%9-21
1990-11-04Houston OilersatLos Angeles Rams57.3%13-17
1990-11-05New York GiantsatIndianapolis Colts28.8%24-7
1990-11-11San Francisco 49ersatDallas Cowboys11.9%24-6
1990-11-11Atlanta FalconsatChicago Bears81.1%24-30
1990-11-11Phoenix CardinalsatBuffalo Bills86.8%14-45
1990-11-11Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers58.6%7-19
1990-11-11Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints76.2%7-35
1990-11-11Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs70.2%17-16
1990-11-11Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots47.2%13-10
1990-11-11Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets35.7%17-3
1990-11-11New York GiantsatLos Angeles Rams37.3%31-7
1990-11-11Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions58.0%17-7
1990-11-11Green Bay PackersatLos Angeles Raiders75.8%29-16
1990-11-12Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles54.2%14-28
1990-11-18Chicago BearsatDenver Broncos43.4%16-13
1990-11-18Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals47.2%3-27
1990-11-18New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills90.0%0-14
1990-11-18Houston OilersatCleveland Browns46.7%35-23
1990-11-18Green Bay PackersatPhoenix Cardinals40.7%24-21
1990-11-18San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs60.5%10-27
1990-11-18New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts62.1%14-17
1990-11-18New Orleans SaintsatWashington Redskins62.0%17-31
1990-11-18Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Ramsshock78.7%24-21
1990-11-18Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons35.9%24-23
1990-11-18Detroit LionsatNew York Giants86.3%0-20
1990-11-18Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks55.2%24-21
1990-11-18Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSan Francisco 49ers93.1%7-31
1990-11-19Los Angeles RaidersatMiami Dolphins69.6%13-10
1990-11-22Denver BroncosatDetroit Lions52.3%27-40
1990-11-22Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys29.1%17-27
1990-11-25Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings45.6%13-41
1990-11-25Indianapolis ColtsatCincinnati Bengals68.7%34-20
1990-11-25Miami DolphinsatCleveland Browns31.2%30-13
1990-11-25Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers76.1%10-20
1990-11-25New England PatriotsatPhoenix Cardinals63.8%14-34
1990-11-25Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers65.6%13-10
1990-11-25Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Raiders58.6%27-24
1990-11-25New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles41.0%13-31
1990-11-25Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints74.1%7-10
1990-11-25Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets41.0%24-7
1990-11-25Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ersshock88.6%28-17
1990-11-26Buffalo BillsatHouston Oilers42.7%24-27
1990-12-02Detroit LionsatChicago Bears74.6%17-23
1990-12-02Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers69.6%16-12
1990-12-02Philadelphia EaglesatBuffalo Bills61.6%23-30
1990-12-02Los Angeles RaidersatDenver Broncos47.4%23-20
1990-12-02Los Angeles RamsatCleveland Browns38.4%38-23
1990-12-02Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers54.0%17-23
1990-12-02Indianapolis ColtsatPhoenix Cardinals43.5%17-20
1990-12-02New York JetsatSan Diego Chargers73.4%17-38
1990-12-02Kansas City ChiefsatNew England Patriots22.2%37-7
1990-12-02Miami DolphinsatWashington Redskins49.0%20-42
1990-12-02New Orleans SaintsatDallas Cowboys40.7%13-17
1990-12-02Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings65.4%7-23
1990-12-02Houston OilersatSeattle Seahawks50.3%10-13
1990-12-03New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers64.8%3-7
1990-12-09San Francisco 49ersatCincinnati Bengals28.9%20-17
1990-12-09Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins56.9%9-10
1990-12-09Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts34.4%31-7
1990-12-09Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs77.3%20-31
1990-12-09Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers80.0%14-58
1990-12-09Phoenix CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons57.5%24-13
1990-12-09Philadelphia EaglesatMiami Dolphins57.1%20-23
1990-12-09Minnesota VikingsatNew York Giants69.6%15-23
1990-12-09Seattle SeahawksatGreen Bay Packers59.2%20-14
1990-12-09New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers85.7%3-24
1990-12-09New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams64.6%24-20
1990-12-10Los Angeles RaidersatDetroit Lions44.3%38-31
1990-12-15Buffalo BillsatNew York Giants59.9%17-13
1990-12-15Washington RedskinsatNew England Patriots20.2%25-10
1990-12-16Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions37.7%21-38
1990-12-16Cincinnati BengalsatLos Angeles Raiders69.9%7-24
1990-12-16San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos49.2%10-20
1990-12-16Atlanta FalconsatCleveland Browns58.6%10-13
1990-12-16Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers32.6%13-26
1990-12-16Phoenix CardinalsatDallas Cowboys58.7%10-41
1990-12-16Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs67.1%27-10
1990-12-16Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets47.6%29-21
1990-12-16Seattle SeahawksatMiami Dolphins68.9%17-24
1990-12-16Green Bay PackersatPhiladelphia Eagles73.6%0-31
1990-12-16Pittsburgh SteelersatNew Orleans Saints57.7%9-6
1990-12-17San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams30.8%26-10
1990-12-22Washington RedskinsatIndianapolis Colts41.8%28-35
1990-12-22Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers57.2%24-17
1990-12-22Los Angeles RaidersatMinnesota Vikings50.6%28-24
1990-12-23Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears75.9%14-27
1990-12-23Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals43.4%20-40
1990-12-23Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills69.8%14-24
1990-12-23Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks65.7%12-17
1990-12-23Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers82.2%0-35
1990-12-23New York GiantsatPhoenix Cardinals24.5%24-21
1990-12-23Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers47.6%24-21
1990-12-23Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles78.5%3-17
1990-12-23Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons35.3%13-20
1990-12-23New England PatriotsatNew York Jets69.5%7-42
1990-12-23New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ersshock84.8%13-10
1990-12-29Kansas City ChiefsatChicago Bears56.8%21-10
1990-12-29Philadelphia EaglesatPhoenix Cardinals28.1%23-21
1990-12-30San Francisco 49ersatMinnesota Vikings30.9%20-17
1990-12-30Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals79.3%14-21
1990-12-30Buffalo BillsatWashington Redskins40.2%14-29
1990-12-30Green Bay PackersatDenver Broncos61.7%13-22
1990-12-30New York JetsatTampa Bay Buccaneers64.3%16-14
1990-12-30San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Raiders76.2%12-17
1990-12-30Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins72.1%17-23
1990-12-30Dallas CowboysatAtlanta Falcons49.7%7-26
1990-12-30New York GiantsatNew England Patriots12.0%13-10
1990-12-30Detroit LionsatSeattle Seahawks62.7%10-30
1990-12-30Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers57.3%14-34
1990-12-31Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints67.2%17-20
1991-01-05Kansas City ChiefsatMiami Dolphins58.7%16-17
1991-01-05Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles61.9%20-6
1991-01-06New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bears57.0%6-16
1991-01-06Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals51.0%14-41
1991-01-12Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills66.9%34-44
1991-01-12Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers71.1%10-28
1991-01-13Chicago BearsatNew York Giants73.2%3-31
1991-01-13Cincinnati BengalsatLos Angeles Raiders67.6%10-20
1991-01-20Los Angeles RaidersatBuffalo Bills66.1%3-51
1991-01-20New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers67.9%15-13
1991-01-27Buffalo BillsvsNew York Giants48.2%19-20

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.