The expectation ledger
The 1988 season, against expectation
Every game of 1988scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.
Games
233
Model Brier
0.2280
Market Brier
0.2192
Longest odds beaten
10.1%
Atlanta Falcons
Teams against expectation
Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1988.
Show all 28 rows
The game log
Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1988 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.
| Date | Game | Home chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1988-09-04 | San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints | 49.6% | 34-33 |
| 1988-09-04 | Miami DolphinsatChicago Bears | 67.8% | 7-34 |
| 1988-09-04 | Phoenix CardinalsatCincinnati Bengals | 54.5% | 14-21 |
| 1988-09-04 | Minnesota VikingsatBuffalo Bills | 43.9% | 10-13 |
| 1988-09-04 | Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos | 64.9% | 21-14 |
| 1988-09-04 | Cleveland BrownsatKansas City Chiefs | 39.1% | 6-3 |
| 1988-09-04 | Philadelphia EaglesatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 40.6% | 41-14 |
| 1988-09-04 | San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Raiders | 62.5% | 13-24 |
| 1988-09-04 | Houston OilersatIndianapolis Colts | 58.7% | 17-14 |
| 1988-09-04 | Dallas CowboysatPittsburgh Steelers | 61.6% | 21-24 |
| 1988-09-04 | Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions | 65.9% | 17-31 |
| 1988-09-04 | New York JetsatNew England Patriots | 71.4% | 3-28 |
| 1988-09-04 | Los Angeles RamsatGreen Bay Packers | 53.5% | 34-7 |
| 1988-09-05 | Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants | 43.0% | 20-27 |
| 1988-09-11 | San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants | 48.9% | 20-17 |
| 1988-09-11 | Chicago BearsatIndianapolis Colts | 43.2% | 17-13 |
| 1988-09-11 | Cincinnati BengalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 66.8% | 28-24 |
| 1988-09-11 | Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills | 56.6% | 6-9 |
| 1988-09-11 | San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos | 74.0% | 3-34 |
| 1988-09-11 | New York JetsatCleveland Browns | 80.0% | 23-3 |
| 1988-09-11 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers | 69.2% | 13-10 |
| 1988-09-11 | Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks | 73.6% | 10-31 |
| 1988-09-11 | Pittsburgh SteelersatWashington Redskins | 74.6% | 29-30 |
| 1988-09-11 | New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons | 30.7% | 29-21 |
| 1988-09-11 | Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams | 70.8% | 10-17 |
| 1988-09-11 | New England PatriotsatMinnesota Vikings | 57.5% | 6-36 |
| 1988-09-11 | Los Angeles RaidersatHouston Oilers | 63.8% | 35-38 |
| 1988-09-12 | Dallas CowboysatPhoenix Cardinals | 57.6% | 17-14 |
| 1988-09-18 | Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears | 63.7% | 31-7 |
| 1988-09-18 | Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers | 61.9% | 17-12 |
| 1988-09-18 | Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots | 65.7% | 16-14 |
| 1988-09-18 | Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs | 40.7% | 13-20 |
| 1988-09-18 | Phoenix CardinalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 46.9% | 30-24 |
| 1988-09-18 | Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers | 36.3% | 6-17 |
| 1988-09-18 | Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins | 76.2% | 10-17 |
| 1988-09-18 | New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys | 50.1% | 12-10 |
| 1988-09-18 | Green Bay PackersatMiami Dolphins | 71.6% | 17-24 |
| 1988-09-18 | Houston OilersatNew York Jets | 53.1% | 3-45 |
| 1988-09-18 | New Orleans SaintsatDetroit Lions | 38.6% | 22-14 |
| 1988-09-18 | Los Angeles RamsatLos Angeles Raiders | 52.1% | 22-17 |
| 1988-09-18 | Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ersshock | 89.9% | 34-17 |
| 1988-09-19 | Indianapolis ColtsatCleveland Browns | 70.2% | 17-23 |
| 1988-09-25 | San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks | 53.5% | 38-7 |
| 1988-09-25 | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | 32.3% | 24-6 |
| 1988-09-25 | Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals | 50.3% | 17-24 |
| 1988-09-25 | Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills | 62.5% | 28-36 |
| 1988-09-25 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints | 85.8% | 9-13 |
| 1988-09-25 | Washington RedskinsatPhoenix Cardinals | 33.8% | 21-30 |
| 1988-09-25 | San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs | 60.8% | 24-23 |
| 1988-09-25 | Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts | 54.8% | 13-15 |
| 1988-09-25 | Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys | 69.3% | 20-26 |
| 1988-09-25 | Philadelphia EaglesatMinnesota Vikings | 76.4% | 21-23 |
| 1988-09-25 | Los Angeles RamsatNew York Giants | 60.4% | 45-31 |
| 1988-09-25 | New York JetsatDetroit Lions | 41.9% | 17-10 |
| 1988-09-25 | New England PatriotsatHouston Oilers | 56.2% | 6-31 |
| 1988-09-26 | Los Angeles RaidersatDenver Broncos | 69.3% | 30-27 |
| 1988-10-02 | Buffalo BillsatChicago Bears | 68.4% | 3-24 |
| 1988-10-02 | Cincinnati BengalsatLos Angeles Raiders | 53.2% | 45-21 |
| 1988-10-02 | Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers | 50.5% | 12-0 |
| 1988-10-02 | Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers | 47.2% | 23-9 |
| 1988-10-02 | Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 55.4% | 24-27 |
| 1988-10-02 | Phoenix CardinalsatLos Angeles Rams | 71.5% | 41-27 |
| 1988-10-02 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets | 71.1% | 17-17 |
| 1988-10-02 | Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots | 62.0% | 17-21 |
| 1988-10-02 | New York GiantsatWashington Redskins | 69.9% | 24-23 |
| 1988-10-02 | Minnesota VikingsatMiami Dolphins | 38.9% | 7-24 |
| 1988-10-02 | Houston OilersatPhiladelphia Eagles | 52.5% | 23-32 |
| 1988-10-02 | Seattle SeahawksatAtlanta Falcons | 41.9% | 31-20 |
| 1988-10-02 | Detroit LionsatSan Francisco 49ers | 85.0% | 13-20 |
| 1988-10-03 | Dallas CowboysatNew Orleans Saints | 72.3% | 17-20 |
| 1988-10-09 | Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions | 28.4% | 24-7 |
| 1988-10-09 | New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals | 62.6% | 19-36 |
| 1988-10-09 | Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills | 64.6% | 23-34 |
| 1988-10-09 | Seattle SeahawksatCleveland Browns | 65.4% | 16-10 |
| 1988-10-09 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings | 85.9% | 13-14 |
| 1988-10-09 | Pittsburgh SteelersatPhoenix Cardinals | 71.4% | 14-31 |
| 1988-10-09 | New Orleans SaintsatSan Diego Chargers | 36.3% | 23-17 |
| 1988-10-09 | Kansas City ChiefsatHouston Oilers | 65.7% | 6-7 |
| 1988-10-09 | Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys | 42.2% | 35-17 |
| 1988-10-09 | Miami DolphinsatLos Angeles Raiders | 48.9% | 24-14 |
| 1988-10-09 | Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons | 34.4% | 33-0 |
| 1988-10-09 | New England PatriotsatGreen Bay Packers | 36.9% | 3-45 |
| 1988-10-09 | Denver BroncosatSan Francisco 49ers | 70.2% | 16-13 |
| 1988-10-10 | New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 54.3% | 13-24 |
| 1988-10-16 | San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams | 53.4% | 24-21 |
| 1988-10-16 | Dallas CowboysatChicago Bears | 79.3% | 7-17 |
| 1988-10-16 | Cincinnati BengalsatNew England Patriots | 41.2% | 21-27 |
| 1988-10-16 | Atlanta FalconsatDenver Broncos | 84.0% | 14-30 |
| 1988-10-16 | Philadelphia EaglesatCleveland Browns | 62.4% | 3-19 |
| 1988-10-16 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatIndianapolis Colts | 72.4% | 31-35 |
| 1988-10-16 | Phoenix CardinalsatWashington Redskins | 69.0% | 17-33 |
| 1988-10-16 | San Diego ChargersatMiami Dolphins | 75.1% | 28-31 |
| 1988-10-16 | Los Angeles RaidersatKansas City Chiefs | 63.0% | 27-17 |
| 1988-10-16 | Detroit LionsatNew York Giants | 77.3% | 10-30 |
| 1988-10-16 | Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikingsshock | 81.9% | 34-14 |
| 1988-10-16 | New Orleans SaintsatSeattle Seahawks | 51.7% | 20-19 |
| 1988-10-16 | Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers | 46.7% | 34-14 |
| 1988-10-17 | Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets | 59.0% | 37-14 |
| 1988-10-23 | Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals | 62.0% | 21-44 |
| 1988-10-23 | New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | 69.4% | 20-23 |
| 1988-10-23 | Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelers | 34.1% | 21-39 |
| 1988-10-23 | Cleveland BrownsatPhoenix Cardinals | 54.1% | 29-21 |
| 1988-10-23 | Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 31.1% | 49-20 |
| 1988-10-23 | Indianapolis ColtsatSan Diego Chargers | 53.4% | 16-0 |
| 1988-10-23 | Detroit LionsatKansas City Chiefs | 68.3% | 7-6 |
| 1988-10-23 | Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packers | 33.4% | 20-17 |
| 1988-10-23 | Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles | 67.1% | 23-24 |
| 1988-10-23 | New York JetsatMiami Dolphins | 69.0% | 44-30 |
| 1988-10-23 | New York GiantsatAtlanta Falcons | 32.5% | 23-16 |
| 1988-10-23 | Los Angeles RaidersatNew Orleans Saints | 78.3% | 6-20 |
| 1988-10-23 | Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams | 59.8% | 10-31 |
| 1988-10-24 | San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears | 60.4% | 9-10 |
| 1988-10-30 | Chicago BearsatNew England Patriots | 35.9% | 7-30 |
| 1988-10-30 | Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns | 60.6% | 16-23 |
| 1988-10-30 | Green Bay PackersatBuffalo Bills | 74.4% | 0-28 |
| 1988-10-30 | Miami DolphinsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 31.8% | 17-14 |
| 1988-10-30 | Phoenix CardinalsatDallas Cowboys | 49.8% | 16-10 |
| 1988-10-30 | San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks | 76.8% | 14-17 |
| 1988-10-30 | Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Raiders | 64.0% | 10-17 |
| 1988-10-30 | Washington RedskinsatHouston Oilers | 40.6% | 17-41 |
| 1988-10-30 | Atlanta FalconsatPhiladelphia Eaglesshock | 80.9% | 27-24 |
| 1988-10-30 | New York GiantsatDetroit Lions | 34.6% | 13-10 |
| 1988-10-30 | Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets | 69.9% | 20-24 |
| 1988-10-30 | Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints | 66.0% | 12-10 |
| 1988-10-30 | Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers | 67.4% | 21-24 |
| 1988-10-31 | Denver BroncosatIndianapolis Colts | 52.2% | 23-55 |
| 1988-11-06 | San Francisco 49ersatPhoenix Cardinals | 45.0% | 23-24 |
| 1988-11-06 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears | 88.5% | 10-28 |
| 1988-11-06 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals | 76.4% | 7-42 |
| 1988-11-06 | Buffalo BillsatSeattle Seahawks | 52.0% | 13-3 |
| 1988-11-06 | Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos | 72.4% | 11-17 |
| 1988-11-06 | Los Angeles RaidersatSan Diego Chargers | 47.0% | 13-3 |
| 1988-11-06 | New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts | 57.9% | 14-38 |
| 1988-11-06 | New Orleans SaintsatWashington Redskins | 58.8% | 24-27 |
| 1988-11-06 | Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants | 75.2% | 21-29 |
| 1988-11-06 | Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots | 58.4% | 10-21 |
| 1988-11-06 | Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 43.8% | 24-30 |
| 1988-11-06 | Green Bay PackersatAtlanta Falcons | 47.7% | 0-20 |
| 1988-11-06 | Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings | 81.6% | 17-44 |
| 1988-11-07 | Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers | 51.8% | 17-24 |
| 1988-11-13 | Chicago BearsatWashington Redskins | 61.8% | 34-14 |
| 1988-11-13 | Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs | 32.3% | 28-31 |
| 1988-11-13 | Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos | 48.2% | 7-30 |
| 1988-11-13 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions | 65.3% | 23-20 |
| 1988-11-13 | New York GiantsatPhoenix Cardinals | 55.8% | 17-24 |
| 1988-11-13 | San Diego ChargersatAtlanta Falcons | 62.9% | 10-7 |
| 1988-11-13 | Indianapolis ColtsatGreen Bay Packers | 38.4% | 20-13 |
| 1988-11-13 | Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys | 38.2% | 43-3 |
| 1988-11-13 | Philadelphia EaglesatPittsburgh Steelers | 45.9% | 27-26 |
| 1988-11-13 | New England PatriotsatNew York Jets | 54.4% | 14-13 |
| 1988-11-13 | New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams | 54.9% | 14-10 |
| 1988-11-13 | Houston OilersatSeattle Seahawks | 49.2% | 24-27 |
| 1988-11-13 | Los Angeles RaidersatSan Francisco 49ers | 76.0% | 9-3 |
| 1988-11-14 | Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins | 44.2% | 31-6 |
| 1988-11-20 | Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 18.7% | 27-15 |
| 1988-11-20 | Cincinnati BengalsatDallas Cowboys | 34.3% | 38-24 |
| 1988-11-20 | New York JetsatBuffalo Bills | 76.6% | 6-9 |
| 1988-11-20 | Denver BroncosatNew Orleans Saints | 69.0% | 0-42 |
| 1988-11-20 | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | 77.5% | 7-27 |
| 1988-11-20 | Phoenix CardinalsatHouston Oilers | 60.4% | 20-38 |
| 1988-11-20 | San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Rams | 80.3% | 38-24 |
| 1988-11-20 | Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs | 43.4% | 24-27 |
| 1988-11-20 | Indianapolis ColtsatMinnesota Vikings | 63.1% | 3-12 |
| 1988-11-20 | New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins | 49.3% | 6-3 |
| 1988-11-20 | Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants | 63.3% | 23-17 |
| 1988-11-20 | Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Raiders | 78.0% | 12-6 |
| 1988-11-20 | Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers | 66.7% | 19-9 |
| 1988-11-21 | Washington RedskinsatSan Francisco 49ers | 60.2% | 21-37 |
| 1988-11-24 | Houston OilersatDallas Cowboys | 29.4% | 25-17 |
| 1988-11-24 | Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions | 26.3% | 23-0 |
| 1988-11-27 | San Francisco 49ersatSan Diego Chargers | 33.0% | 48-10 |
| 1988-11-27 | Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears | 89.1% | 0-16 |
| 1988-11-27 | Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals | 50.7% | 21-35 |
| 1988-11-27 | Los Angeles RamsatDenver Broncos | 61.9% | 24-35 |
| 1988-11-27 | Cleveland BrownsatWashington Redskins | 58.0% | 17-13 |
| 1988-11-27 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons | 70.3% | 10-17 |
| 1988-11-27 | Phoenix CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 60.3% | 21-31 |
| 1988-11-27 | Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers | 54.9% | 10-16 |
| 1988-11-27 | New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts | 57.4% | 21-24 |
| 1988-11-27 | Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets | 63.1% | 34-38 |
| 1988-11-27 | New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints | 74.8% | 13-12 |
| 1988-11-28 | Los Angeles RaidersatSeattle Seahawks | 62.0% | 27-35 |
| 1988-12-04 | San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons | 28.6% | 13-3 |
| 1988-12-04 | San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals | 82.9% | 10-27 |
| 1988-12-04 | Buffalo BillsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 19.2% | 5-10 |
| 1988-12-04 | Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Raiders | 48.8% | 20-21 |
| 1988-12-04 | Dallas CowboysatCleveland Browns | 84.7% | 21-24 |
| 1988-12-04 | Phoenix CardinalsatNew York Giants | 61.3% | 7-44 |
| 1988-12-04 | New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs | 46.2% | 34-38 |
| 1988-12-04 | Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins | 43.9% | 31-28 |
| 1988-12-04 | Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles | 61.6% | 20-19 |
| 1988-12-04 | Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions | 59.5% | 14-30 |
| 1988-12-04 | Seattle SeahawksatNew England Patriots | 62.7% | 7-13 |
| 1988-12-04 | New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings | 57.9% | 3-45 |
| 1988-12-04 | Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers | 80.9% | 37-34 |
| 1988-12-05 | Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Rams | 35.4% | 3-23 |
| 1988-12-10 | Philadelphia EaglesatPhoenix Cardinals | 50.4% | 23-17 |
| 1988-12-10 | Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets | 47.1% | 16-34 |
| 1988-12-11 | Detroit LionsatChicago Bears | 85.7% | 12-13 |
| 1988-12-11 | Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers | 52.9% | 6-41 |
| 1988-12-11 | Los Angeles RaidersatBuffalo Bills | 72.9% | 21-37 |
| 1988-12-11 | Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks | 55.4% | 14-42 |
| 1988-12-11 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew England Patriots | 84.3% | 7-10 |
| 1988-12-11 | Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Diego Chargers | 52.6% | 14-20 |
| 1988-12-11 | Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Giants | 75.4% | 12-28 |
| 1988-12-11 | Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskinsshock | 81.9% | 24-17 |
| 1988-12-11 | Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams | 75.5% | 7-22 |
| 1988-12-11 | Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packersshock | 17.9% | 6-18 |
| 1988-12-11 | New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers | 65.5% | 17-30 |
| 1988-12-12 | Cleveland BrownsatMiami Dolphins | 37.3% | 31-38 |
| 1988-12-17 | Washington RedskinsatCincinnati Bengals | 68.8% | 17-20 |
| 1988-12-17 | New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos | 50.9% | 10-21 |
| 1988-12-18 | Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts | 50.7% | 14-17 |
| 1988-12-18 | Houston OilersatCleveland Browns | 53.4% | 23-28 |
| 1988-12-18 | Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers | 54.1% | 10-21 |
| 1988-12-18 | Green Bay PackersatPhoenix Cardinals | 71.8% | 26-17 |
| 1988-12-18 | Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers | 58.6% | 13-24 |
| 1988-12-18 | Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys | 34.4% | 23-7 |
| 1988-12-18 | Miami DolphinsatPittsburgh Steelers | 52.9% | 24-40 |
| 1988-12-18 | Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints | 82.0% | 9-10 |
| 1988-12-18 | New York GiantsatNew York Jets | 51.5% | 21-27 |
| 1988-12-18 | Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Raiders | 48.5% | 43-37 |
| 1988-12-18 | Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers | 74.8% | 38-16 |
| 1988-12-19 | Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings | 57.6% | 27-28 |
| 1988-12-24 | Houston OilersatCleveland Browns | 58.1% | 24-23 |
| 1988-12-26 | Los Angeles RamsatMinnesota Vikings | 61.8% | 17-28 |
| 1988-12-31 | Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears | 62.4% | 12-20 |
| 1988-12-31 | Seattle SeahawksatCincinnati Bengals | 64.2% | 13-21 |
| 1989-01-01 | Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills | 57.2% | 10-17 |
| 1989-01-01 | Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers | 57.0% | 9-34 |
| 1989-01-08 | San Francisco 49ersatChicago Bears | 57.4% | 28-3 |
| 1989-01-08 | Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals | 60.1% | 10-21 |
| 1989-01-22 | Cincinnati BengalsvsSan Francisco 49ers | 57.4% | 16-20 |
Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.