The expectation ledger

The 1987 season, against expectation

Every game of 1987scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19861988→
Games
219
Model Brier
0.2393
Market Brier
0.2335
Longest odds beaten
14.9%
Los Angeles Rams

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1987.

1
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
12
exp 8.17
2
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
13
exp 9.99
3
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
9
exp 6.50
4
Houston Oilers
Houston
9
exp 6.67
5
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
7
exp 4.94
6
Denver Broncos
Denver
10.5
exp 9.43
7
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
8
exp 7.29
8
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
7
exp 6.38
9
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
10
exp 9.41
10
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
8
exp 7.44
11
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
7
exp 6.51
12
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
11
exp 10.78
Show all 28 rows
13
Chicago Bears
Chicago
11
exp 10.81
14
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
5.5
exp 5.43
15
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
8
exp 8.12
16
Miami Dolphins
Miami
8
exp 8.14
17
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
7
exp 7.18
18
New England Patriots
Boston
8
exp 8.18
19
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
9
exp 9.22
20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
4
exp 4.79
21
Detroit Lions
Detroit
4
exp 4.95
22
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
6
exp 7.29
23
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
4
exp 5.69
24
New York Jets
New York
6
exp 7.93
25
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
3
exp 5.21
26
Los Angeles Raiders
Los Angeles
5
exp 7.26
27
New York Giants
New York
6
exp 8.92
28
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
4
exp 7.35

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1987 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1987-09-13San Francisco 49ersatPittsburgh Steelers45.3%17-30
1987-09-13Cincinnati BengalsatIndianapolis Colts38.7%23-21
1987-09-13New York JetsatBuffalo Bills38.7%31-28
1987-09-13Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos57.1%17-40
1987-09-13Cleveland BrownsatNew Orleans Saints45.9%21-28
1987-09-13Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers36.6%10-48
1987-09-13Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals49.3%13-24
1987-09-13San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs65.8%13-20
1987-09-13Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins76.5%24-34
1987-09-13Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots62.5%21-28
1987-09-13Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings74.4%19-34
1987-09-13Los Angeles RaidersatGreen Bay Packers45.5%20-0
1987-09-13Los Angeles RamsatHouston Oilers42.6%16-20
1987-09-14New York GiantsatChicago Bears50.2%19-34
1987-09-20San Francisco 49ersatCincinnati Bengals58.1%27-26
1987-09-20Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears89.3%3-20
1987-09-20Houston OilersatBuffalo Bills46.8%30-34
1987-09-20Denver BroncosatGreen Bay Packers29.5%17-17
1987-09-20Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns63.2%10-34
1987-09-20St. Louis CardinalsatSan Diego Chargers60.3%24-28
1987-09-20Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks64.4%14-43
1987-09-20Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts39.3%23-10
1987-09-20Washington RedskinsatAtlanta Falcons29.8%20-21
1987-09-20Dallas CowboysatNew York Giantsshock82.2%16-14
1987-09-20New Orleans SaintsatPhiladelphia Eagles55.3%17-27
1987-09-20Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Raiders77.2%7-27
1987-09-20Minnesota VikingsatLos Angeles Rams57.5%21-16
1987-09-21New England PatriotsatNew York Jets50.9%24-43
1987-10-04Chicago BearsatPhiladelphia Eagles35.4%35-3
1987-10-04San Diego ChargersatCincinnati Bengals69.3%10-9
1987-10-04Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills60.2%47-6
1987-10-04Houston OilersatDenver Broncos79.3%40-10
1987-10-04Cleveland BrownsatNew England Patriots56.9%20-10
1987-10-04Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions63.3%31-27
1987-10-04St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins81.2%21-28
1987-10-04Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Raiders65.5%17-35
1987-10-04Dallas CowboysatNew York Jets68.3%38-24
1987-10-04Miami DolphinsatSeattle Seahawks64.6%20-24
1987-10-04Pittsburgh SteelersatAtlanta Falcons49.6%28-12
1987-10-04Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings79.0%23-16
1987-10-04Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints55.6%10-37
1987-10-05San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants69.6%41-21
1987-10-11San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons30.1%25-17
1987-10-11Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears78.8%7-27
1987-10-11Cincinnati BengalsatSeattle Seahawks68.3%17-10
1987-10-11Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots81.8%7-14
1987-10-11Houston OilersatCleveland Browns73.1%15-10
1987-10-11San Diego ChargersatTampa Bay Buccaneers44.3%17-13
1987-10-11New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Cardinals47.6%19-24
1987-10-11Kansas City ChiefsatMiami Dolphins66.4%0-42
1987-10-11New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts45.2%0-6
1987-10-11Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants55.2%38-12
1987-10-11Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys66.7%22-41
1987-10-11Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers68.9%19-16
1987-10-11Pittsburgh SteelersatLos Angeles Rams52.3%21-31
1987-10-12Los Angeles RaidersatDenver Broncos54.4%14-30
1987-10-18New Orleans SaintsatChicago Bearsshock82.9%19-17
1987-10-18Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals58.1%34-0
1987-10-18New York GiantsatBuffalo Bills26.8%3-6
1987-10-18Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs44.9%26-17
1987-10-18Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers37.4%10-20
1987-10-18San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Raiders66.7%23-17
1987-10-18Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers67.8%7-21
1987-10-18Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets49.3%31-37
1987-10-18Philadelphia EaglesatGreen Bay Packers53.6%10-16
1987-10-18Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons43.5%20-24
1987-10-18Seattle SeahawksatDetroit Lions32.5%37-14
1987-10-18New England PatriotsatHouston Oilers57.3%21-7
1987-10-18St. Louis CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers80.3%28-34
1987-10-19Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys41.9%13-7
1987-10-25San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints41.9%24-22
1987-10-25Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers21.6%27-26
1987-10-25Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers59.0%20-23
1987-10-25Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphinsshock82.0%34-31
1987-10-25St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants72.4%7-30
1987-10-25Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers69.2%21-42
1987-10-25New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts38.9%16-30
1987-10-25New York JetsatWashington Redskins79.4%16-17
1987-10-25Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles45.6%20-37
1987-10-25Atlanta FalconsatHouston Oilers69.8%33-37
1987-10-25Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions49.3%34-33
1987-10-25Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Raiders49.1%35-13
1987-10-26Denver BroncosatMinnesota Vikings44.5%27-34
1987-10-26Los Angeles RamsatCleveland Browns75.8%17-30
1987-11-01San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams35.0%31-10
1987-11-01Kansas City ChiefsatChicago Bears86.4%28-31
1987-11-01Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals61.0%31-29
1987-11-01Washington RedskinsatBuffalo Bills19.3%27-7
1987-11-01Detroit LionsatDenver Broncos82.7%0-34
1987-11-01Cleveland BrownsatSan Diego Chargers46.5%24-27
1987-11-01Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers66.0%23-17
1987-11-01Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals53.2%28-23
1987-11-01Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets66.6%19-14
1987-11-01Pittsburgh SteelersatMiami Dolphins57.6%24-35
1987-11-01New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons44.5%38-0
1987-11-01Los Angeles RaidersatNew England Patriots65.0%23-26
1987-11-01Minnesota VikingsatSeattle Seahawks74.0%17-28
1987-11-02New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys50.6%24-33
1987-11-08Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers23.0%26-24
1987-11-08Miami DolphinsatCincinnati Bengals53.1%20-14
1987-11-08Denver BroncosatBuffalo Bills30.3%14-21
1987-11-08Atlanta FalconsatCleveland Browns85.5%3-38
1987-11-08Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSt. Louis Cardinals57.9%28-31
1987-11-08San Diego ChargersatIndianapolis Colts31.6%16-13
1987-11-08Pittsburgh SteelersatKansas City Chiefs46.7%17-16
1987-11-08Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles30.1%27-31
1987-11-08Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions19.8%17-27
1987-11-08New England PatriotsatNew York Giants58.6%10-17
1987-11-08Los Angeles RaidersatMinnesota Vikings61.1%20-31
1987-11-08New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams47.0%31-14
1987-11-08Houston OilersatSan Francisco 49ers77.6%20-27
1987-11-09Seattle SeahawksatNew York Jets38.4%14-30
1987-11-15Cincinnati BengalsatAtlanta Falcons42.5%16-10
1987-11-15Buffalo BillsatCleveland Browns84.3%21-27
1987-11-15Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings73.1%17-23
1987-11-15Los Angeles RamsatSt. Louis Cardinals58.4%27-24
1987-11-15Los Angeles RaidersatSan Diego Chargers72.6%14-16
1987-11-15New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs44.0%16-9
1987-11-15Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins71.2%40-21
1987-11-15Detroit LionsatWashington Redskins88.9%13-20
1987-11-15Dallas CowboysatNew England Patriots64.3%23-17
1987-11-15New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles53.1%20-17
1987-11-15Green Bay PackersatSeattle Seahawks81.5%13-24
1987-11-15Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers61.1%23-3
1987-11-15New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers73.2%26-24
1987-11-16Chicago BearsatDenver Broncos38.2%29-31
1987-11-22San Francisco 49ersatTampa Bay Buccaneers24.5%24-10
1987-11-22Detroit LionsatChicago Bears89.3%10-30
1987-11-22Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals61.1%30-16
1987-11-22Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets77.8%17-14
1987-11-22Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Raiders45.1%23-17
1987-11-22Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers47.3%40-7
1987-11-22St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles71.6%31-19
1987-11-22San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks64.0%3-34
1987-11-22Green Bay PackersatKansas City Chiefs59.3%23-3
1987-11-22Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots56.9%0-24
1987-11-22Miami DolphinsatDallas Cowboys59.1%20-14
1987-11-22Atlanta FalconsatMinnesota Vikings80.3%13-24
1987-11-22New York GiantsatNew Orleans Saints60.8%14-23
1987-11-23Los Angeles RamsatWashington Redskinsshock85.1%30-26
1987-11-26Kansas City ChiefsatDetroit Lions60.1%27-20
1987-11-26Minnesota VikingsatDallas Cowboys53.6%44-38
1987-11-29Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears85.7%10-23
1987-11-29Cincinnati BengalsatNew York Jets67.2%20-27
1987-11-29Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills41.2%0-27
1987-11-29Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers55.7%31-17
1987-11-29Tampa Bay BuccaneersatLos Angeles Rams70.9%3-35
1987-11-29St. Louis CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons44.2%34-21
1987-11-29Houston OilersatIndianapolis Colts56.3%27-51
1987-11-29New York GiantsatWashington Redskins71.5%19-23
1987-11-29Philadelphia EaglesatNew England Patriots68.5%34-31
1987-11-29New Orleans SaintsatPittsburgh Steelers47.3%20-16
1987-11-29Cleveland BrownsatSan Francisco 49ers60.3%24-38
1987-11-30Los Angeles RaidersatSeattle Seahawksshock81.4%37-14
1987-12-06San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers24.7%23-12
1987-12-06Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings39.9%30-24
1987-12-06Kansas City ChiefsatCincinnati Bengals67.0%27-30
1987-12-06Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Raiders65.3%21-34
1987-12-06New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos71.9%20-31
1987-12-06Indianapolis ColtsatCleveland Browns74.7%9-7
1987-12-06Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints86.0%34-44
1987-12-06Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals32.6%34-17
1987-12-06San Diego ChargersatHouston Oilers54.3%18-33
1987-12-06Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys78.4%21-10
1987-12-06Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants68.1%20-23
1987-12-06Los Angeles RamsatDetroit Lions38.2%37-16
1987-12-06Seattle SeahawksatPittsburgh Steelers48.7%9-13
1987-12-07New York JetsatMiami Dolphins54.8%28-37
1987-12-13Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns79.1%24-38
1987-12-13Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts71.9%27-3
1987-12-13Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks50.5%21-28
1987-12-13Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers64.4%20-10
1987-12-13New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals44.1%24-27
1987-12-13Pittsburgh SteelersatSan Diego Chargers56.1%20-16
1987-12-13Los Angeles RaidersatKansas City Chiefs39.8%10-16
1987-12-13Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins85.7%20-24
1987-12-13Miami DolphinsatPhiladelphia Eagles51.9%28-10
1987-12-13Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams78.4%0-33
1987-12-13New York JetsatNew England Patriots56.8%20-42
1987-12-13Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers42.2%10-16
1987-12-13Houston OilersatNew Orleans Saints73.4%10-24
1987-12-14Chicago BearsatSan Francisco 49ers58.6%0-41
1987-12-19Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos81.6%17-20
1987-12-19Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants71.5%10-20
1987-12-20Seattle SeahawksatChicago Bears71.8%34-21
1987-12-20New Orleans SaintsatCincinnati Bengals33.0%41-24
1987-12-20New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills54.4%13-7
1987-12-20Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Raiders39.4%24-17
1987-12-20St. Louis CardinalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers39.9%31-14
1987-12-20Indianapolis ColtsatSan Diego Chargers57.8%20-7
1987-12-20Washington RedskinsatMiami Dolphins41.3%21-23
1987-12-20Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Jets65.5%38-27
1987-12-20Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions36.3%17-14
1987-12-20Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers53.6%16-24
1987-12-20Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers93.2%7-35
1987-12-21Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Rams72.6%29-21
1987-12-26Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers40.3%19-13
1987-12-26Washington RedskinsatMinnesota Vikings39.5%27-24
1987-12-27Chicago BearsatLos Angeles Raiders37.0%6-3
1987-12-27Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers70.7%17-21
1987-12-27Buffalo BillsatPhiladelphia Eagles60.3%7-17
1987-12-27San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncos78.3%0-24
1987-12-27Tampa Bay BuccaneersatIndianapolis Colts83.2%6-24
1987-12-27St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys55.6%16-21
1987-12-27Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs29.2%20-41
1987-12-27Detroit LionsatAtlanta Falcons58.6%30-13
1987-12-27New York JetsatNew York Giants72.0%7-20
1987-12-27Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints83.9%24-33
1987-12-27Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers85.3%0-48
1987-12-28New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins62.3%24-10
1988-01-03Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints76.8%44-10
1988-01-03Seattle SeahawksatHouston Oilers52.5%20-23
1988-01-09Indianapolis ColtsatCleveland Browns76.3%21-38
1988-01-09Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ers79.4%36-24
1988-01-10Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears54.9%21-17
1988-01-10Houston OilersatDenver Broncos69.5%10-34
1988-01-17Cleveland BrownsatDenver Broncos53.2%33-38
1988-01-17Minnesota VikingsatWashington Redskins68.8%10-17
1988-01-31Denver BroncosvsWashington Redskins57.8%10-42

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.