The expectation ledger

The 1986 season, against expectation

Every game of 1986scored against the chance it was given beforehand: the same axis that runs from 1920 to this weekend's picks.

← 19851987→
Games
233
Model Brier
0.2033
Market Brier
0.2034
Longest odds beaten
13.1%
San Diego Chargers

Teams against expectation

Expected wins are the pre-game probabilities of each team's own games added up; teams are printed under the name they carried in 1986.

1
New York Giants
New York
14
exp 10.15
2
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland
12
exp 8.91
3
Washington Redskins
Washington-Baltimore
12
exp 9.86
4
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle
10
exp 8.27
5
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City
10
exp 8.31
6
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati
10
exp 8.54
7
Denver Broncos
Denver
11
exp 9.95
8
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles
10
exp 9.13
9
Chicago Bears
Chicago
14
exp 13.14
10
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans
7
exp 6.21
11
Minnesota Vikings
Minneapolis
9
exp 8.27
12
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta
7.5
exp 6.97
Show all 28 rows
13
New York Jets
New York
10
exp 9.58
14
New England Patriots
Boston
11
exp 10.81
15
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco-San Jose
10.5
exp 10.47
16
Houston Oilers
Houston
5
exp 5.50
17
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis
4.5
exp 5.21
18
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia
5.5
exp 6.44
19
Miami Dolphins
Miami
8
exp 9.02
20
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh
6
exp 7.03
21
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis
3
exp 4.36
22
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas
7
exp 8.37
23
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo
4
exp 5.41
24
Los Angeles Raiders
Los Angeles
8
exp 9.48
25
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay
4
exp 5.82
26
Detroit Lions
Detroit
5
exp 7.22
27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa
2
exp 4.75
28
San Diego Chargers
San Diego
4
exp 6.81

The game log

Chance is the home side's pre-game win probability. The five results that beat the longest odds of 1986 are marked. A score opens the box score on Pro-Football-Reference; neutral-site games and clubs no longer in the league carry none.

DateGameHome chanceScore
1986-09-07San Francisco 49ersatTampa Bay Buccaneers25.2%31-7
1986-09-07Cleveland BrownsatChicago Bears82.8%31-41
1986-09-07Cincinnati BengalsatKansas City Chiefs57.5%14-24
1986-09-07New York JetsatBuffalo Bills34.5%28-24
1986-09-07Los Angeles RaidersatDenver Broncos57.5%36-38
1986-09-07Los Angeles RamsatSt. Louis Cardinals41.2%16-10
1986-09-07Miami DolphinsatSan Diego Chargers47.1%28-50
1986-09-07Indianapolis ColtsatNew England Patriots81.8%3-33
1986-09-07Philadelphia EaglesatWashington Redskins71.4%14-41
1986-09-07Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints59.5%31-10
1986-09-07Detroit LionsatMinnesota Vikings56.1%13-10
1986-09-07Houston OilersatGreen Bay Packers75.0%31-3
1986-09-07Pittsburgh SteelersatSeattle Seahawks67.3%0-30
1986-09-08New York GiantsatDallas Cowboys50.9%28-31
1986-09-11New England PatriotsatNew York Jets47.2%20-6
1986-09-14San Francisco 49ersatLos Angeles Rams49.9%13-16
1986-09-14Philadelphia EaglesatChicago Bears86.3%10-13
1986-09-14Buffalo BillsatCincinnati Bengals76.1%33-36
1986-09-14Cleveland BrownsatHouston Oilers51.8%23-20
1986-09-14Minnesota VikingsatTampa Bay Buccaneers48.4%23-10
1986-09-14St. Louis CardinalsatAtlanta Falcons66.2%13-33
1986-09-14San Diego ChargersatNew York Giants61.7%7-20
1986-09-14Kansas City ChiefsatSeattle Seahawks67.3%17-23
1986-09-14Indianapolis ColtsatMiami Dolphins78.5%10-30
1986-09-14Los Angeles RaidersatWashington Redskins58.3%6-10
1986-09-14Dallas CowboysatDetroit Lions50.8%31-7
1986-09-14Green Bay PackersatNew Orleans Saints50.5%10-24
1986-09-15Denver BroncosatPittsburgh Steelers40.8%21-10
1986-09-18Cincinnati BengalsatCleveland Browns60.9%30-13
1986-09-21St. Louis CardinalsatBuffalo Bills52.3%10-17
1986-09-21Denver BroncosatPhiladelphia Eagles36.0%33-7
1986-09-21Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDetroit Lions74.7%24-20
1986-09-21Washington RedskinsatSan Diego Chargers50.1%30-27
1986-09-21Houston OilersatKansas City Chiefs69.5%13-27
1986-09-21Los Angeles RamsatIndianapolis Colts33.7%24-7
1986-09-21Atlanta FalconsatDallas Cowboys70.9%37-35
1986-09-21Miami DolphinsatNew York Jets50.2%45-51
1986-09-21New York GiantsatLos Angeles Raiders57.7%14-9
1986-09-21Seattle SeahawksatNew England Patriots68.7%38-31
1986-09-21Pittsburgh SteelersatMinnesota Vikings59.6%7-31
1986-09-21New Orleans SaintsatSan Francisco 49ers82.5%17-26
1986-09-22Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers21.5%25-12
1986-09-28San Francisco 49ersatMiami Dolphins50.3%31-16
1986-09-28Chicago BearsatCincinnati Bengals31.9%44-7
1986-09-28Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills37.6%20-17
1986-09-28New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos61.4%20-27
1986-09-28Detroit LionsatCleveland Browns65.3%21-24
1986-09-28Atlanta FalconsatTampa Bay Buccaneers38.3%23-20
1986-09-28San Diego ChargersatLos Angeles Raiders64.4%13-17
1986-09-28New York JetsatIndianapolis Colts36.9%26-7
1986-09-28Seattle SeahawksatWashington Redskins59.0%14-19
1986-09-28Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles35.2%20-34
1986-09-28New Orleans SaintsatNew York Giants82.4%17-20
1986-09-28Green Bay PackersatMinnesota Vikings67.7%7-42
1986-09-28Pittsburgh SteelersatHouston Oilers56.7%22-16
1986-09-29Dallas CowboysatSt. Louis Cardinals33.5%31-7
1986-10-05Minnesota VikingsatChicago Bears85.8%0-23
1986-10-05Cincinnati BengalsatGreen Bay Packers43.0%34-28
1986-10-05Buffalo BillsatNew York Jets82.9%13-14
1986-10-05Dallas CowboysatDenver Broncos69.7%14-29
1986-10-05Cleveland BrownsatPittsburgh Steelers55.2%27-24
1986-10-05Tampa Bay BuccaneersatLos Angeles Rams84.0%20-26
1986-10-05New York GiantsatSt. Louis Cardinals24.0%13-6
1986-10-05Los Angeles RaidersatKansas City Chiefs53.0%24-17
1986-10-05Washington RedskinsatNew Orleans Saints28.8%14-6
1986-10-05Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots68.9%7-34
1986-10-05Philadelphia EaglesatAtlanta Falcons65.0%16-0
1986-10-05Houston OilersatDetroit Lions63.2%13-24
1986-10-05Indianapolis ColtsatSan Francisco 49ers88.8%14-35
1986-10-06San Diego ChargersatSeattle Seahawks71.0%7-33
1986-10-12Chicago BearsatHouston Oilers13.5%20-7
1986-10-12Buffalo BillsatMiami Dolphins79.2%14-27
1986-10-12Denver BroncosatSan Diego Chargers34.0%31-14
1986-10-12Kansas City ChiefsatCleveland Browns57.6%7-20
1986-10-12St. Louis CardinalsatTampa Bay Buccaneers58.3%30-19
1986-10-12New Orleans SaintsatIndianapolis Colts53.9%17-14
1986-10-12Washington RedskinsatDallas Cowboys48.1%6-30
1986-10-12Philadelphia EaglesatNew York Giants74.3%3-35
1986-10-12Los Angeles RamsatAtlanta Falcons45.1%14-26
1986-10-12New York JetsatNew England Patriots68.0%31-24
1986-10-12Detroit LionsatGreen Bay Packers51.5%21-14
1986-10-12Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Raiders55.5%10-14
1986-10-12Minnesota VikingsatSan Francisco 49ersshock79.5%27-24
1986-10-13Pittsburgh SteelersatCincinnati Bengals71.0%22-24
1986-10-19San Francisco 49ersatAtlanta Falcons39.7%10-10
1986-10-19Chicago BearsatMinnesota Vikings26.2%7-23
1986-10-19Houston OilersatCincinnati Bengals79.3%28-31
1986-10-19Indianapolis ColtsatBuffalo Bills59.3%13-24
1986-10-19Green Bay PackersatCleveland Browns78.4%17-14
1986-10-19Tampa Bay BuccaneersatNew Orleans Saints72.3%7-38
1986-10-19St. Louis CardinalsatWashington Redskins84.8%21-28
1986-10-19San Diego ChargersatKansas City Chiefs60.4%41-42
1986-10-19Dallas CowboysatPhiladelphia Eagles44.3%17-14
1986-10-19Los Angeles RaidersatMiami Dolphins48.0%30-28
1986-10-19New York GiantsatSeattle Seahawks53.8%12-17
1986-10-19Detroit LionsatLos Angeles Rams71.0%10-14
1986-10-19New England PatriotsatPittsburgh Steelers34.8%34-0
1986-10-20Denver BroncosatNew York Jets45.4%10-22
1986-10-26San Francisco 49ersatGreen Bay Packers25.0%31-17
1986-10-26Detroit LionsatChicago Bears87.5%7-13
1986-10-26Cincinnati BengalsatPittsburgh Steelers40.6%9-30
1986-10-26New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills24.2%23-3
1986-10-26Seattle SeahawksatDenver Broncos64.9%13-20
1986-10-26Cleveland BrownsatMinnesota Vikings68.8%23-20
1986-10-26Tampa Bay BuccaneersatKansas City Chiefs82.0%20-27
1986-10-26St. Louis CardinalsatDallas Cowboys85.3%6-37
1986-10-26San Diego ChargersatPhiladelphia Eagles60.6%7-23
1986-10-26Miami DolphinsatIndianapolis Colts31.9%17-13
1986-10-26Atlanta FalconsatLos Angeles Rams65.6%7-14
1986-10-26New Orleans SaintsatNew York Jets81.8%23-28
1986-10-26Los Angeles RaidersatHouston Oilers24.4%28-17
1986-10-27Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants61.3%20-27
1986-11-02San Francisco 49ersatNew Orleans Saints28.3%10-23
1986-11-02Cincinnati BengalsatDetroit Lions51.2%24-17
1986-11-02Buffalo BillsatTampa Bay Buccaneers50.0%28-34
1986-11-02Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Raiders52.3%21-10
1986-11-02Cleveland BrownsatIndianapolis Colts31.7%24-9
1986-11-02Philadelphia EaglesatSt. Louis Cardinals39.2%10-13
1986-11-02Kansas City ChiefsatSan Diego Chargers52.6%24-23
1986-11-02Minnesota VikingsatWashington Redskins66.5%38-44
1986-11-02Dallas CowboysatNew York Giants62.8%14-17
1986-11-02Houston OilersatMiami Dolphins80.7%7-28
1986-11-02Atlanta FalconsatNew England Patriots77.2%17-25
1986-11-02New York JetsatSeattle Seahawks56.3%38-7
1986-11-02Green Bay PackersatPittsburgh Steelers69.0%3-27
1986-11-03Los Angeles RamsatChicago Bears78.0%20-17
1986-11-09Chicago BearsatTampa Bay Buccaneers13.1%23-3
1986-11-09Cincinnati BengalsatHouston Oilers33.5%28-32
1986-11-09Pittsburgh SteelersatBuffalo Bills40.6%12-16
1986-11-09San Diego ChargersatDenver Broncosshock86.9%9-3
1986-11-09Seattle SeahawksatKansas City Chiefs49.8%7-27
1986-11-09New England PatriotsatIndianapolis Colts16.1%30-21
1986-11-09Washington RedskinsatGreen Bay Packers24.5%16-7
1986-11-09Los Angeles RaidersatDallas Cowboys59.8%17-13
1986-11-09New York GiantsatPhiladelphia Eagles35.4%17-14
1986-11-09New York JetsatAtlanta Falcons33.1%28-14
1986-11-09Minnesota VikingsatDetroit Lions43.4%24-10
1986-11-09Los Angeles RamsatNew Orleans Saints41.1%0-6
1986-11-09St. Louis CardinalsatSan Francisco 49ers84.6%17-43
1986-11-10Miami DolphinsatCleveland Browns57.6%16-26
1986-11-16Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons26.9%13-10
1986-11-16Seattle SeahawksatCincinnati Bengals53.3%7-34
1986-11-16Miami DolphinsatBuffalo Bills35.2%34-24
1986-11-16Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos75.6%17-38
1986-11-16Cleveland BrownsatLos Angeles Raiders69.2%14-27
1986-11-16Tampa Bay BuccaneersatGreen Bay Packers65.0%7-31
1986-11-16New Orleans SaintsatSt. Louis Cardinals42.4%16-7
1986-11-16Dallas CowboysatSan Diego Chargers44.0%24-21
1986-11-16Indianapolis ColtsatNew York Jets93.5%16-31
1986-11-16Detroit LionsatPhiladelphia Eagles69.5%13-11
1986-11-16New York GiantsatMinnesota Vikings43.7%22-20
1986-11-16New England PatriotsatLos Angeles Rams46.7%30-28
1986-11-16Houston OilersatPittsburgh Steelers70.1%10-21
1986-11-17San Francisco 49ersatWashington Redskins59.7%6-14
1986-11-20Los Angeles RaidersatSan Diego Chargers35.4%37-31
1986-11-23Green Bay PackersatChicago Bears91.6%10-12
1986-11-23Minnesota VikingsatCincinnati Bengals56.8%20-24
1986-11-23Buffalo BillsatNew England Patriots90.8%19-22
1986-11-23Denver BroncosatNew York Giants58.4%16-19
1986-11-23Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns69.5%31-37
1986-11-23Detroit LionsatTampa Bay Buccaneers39.6%38-17
1986-11-23Kansas City ChiefsatSt. Louis Cardinals35.3%14-23
1986-11-23Indianapolis ColtsatHouston Oilers66.9%17-31
1986-11-23Dallas CowboysatWashington Redskins64.4%14-41
1986-11-23Philadelphia EaglesatSeattle Seahawks65.9%20-24
1986-11-23New Orleans SaintsatLos Angeles Rams66.1%13-26
1986-11-23Atlanta FalconsatSan Francisco 49ers76.6%0-20
1986-11-24New York JetsatMiami Dolphins37.5%3-45
1986-11-27Seattle SeahawksatDallas Cowboys67.1%31-14
1986-11-27Green Bay PackersatDetroit Lions69.5%44-40
1986-11-30Pittsburgh SteelersatChicago Bears87.3%10-13
1986-11-30Cincinnati BengalsatDenver Broncos75.1%28-34
1986-11-30Buffalo BillsatKansas City Chiefs78.3%17-14
1986-11-30Houston OilersatCleveland Browns80.6%10-13
1986-11-30Tampa Bay BuccaneersatMinnesota Vikings87.9%13-45
1986-11-30Washington RedskinsatSt. Louis Cardinals22.5%20-17
1986-11-30San Diego ChargersatIndianapolis Colts19.1%17-3
1986-11-30Atlanta FalconsatMiami Dolphins76.4%20-14
1986-11-30Philadelphia EaglesatLos Angeles Raidersshock82.5%33-27
1986-11-30Los Angeles RamsatNew York Jets68.2%17-3
1986-11-30New England PatriotsatNew Orleans Saints19.8%21-20
1986-12-01New York GiantsatSan Francisco 49ers49.1%21-17
1986-12-07Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears95.7%14-48
1986-12-07Cincinnati BengalsatNew England Patriots76.4%31-7
1986-12-07Cleveland BrownsatBuffalo Bills32.3%21-17
1986-12-07Denver BroncosatKansas City Chiefs30.0%10-37
1986-12-07St. Louis CardinalsatPhiladelphia Eagles73.2%10-10
1986-12-07Houston OilersatSan Diego Chargers74.0%0-27
1986-12-07Indianapolis ColtsatAtlanta Falconsshock84.2%28-23
1986-12-07New York GiantsatWashington Redskins54.5%24-14
1986-12-07Dallas CowboysatLos Angeles Rams69.3%10-29
1986-12-07Miami DolphinsatNew Orleans Saints49.6%31-27
1986-12-07Detroit LionsatPittsburgh Steelers63.1%17-27
1986-12-07Minnesota VikingsatGreen Bay Packers37.3%32-6
1986-12-07New York JetsatSan Francisco 49ers58.6%10-24
1986-12-08Los Angeles RaidersatSeattle Seahawks51.3%0-37
1986-12-13Washington RedskinsatDenver Broncos57.5%30-31
1986-12-13Pittsburgh SteelersatNew York Jets74.6%45-24
1986-12-14San Francisco 49ersatNew England Patriots59.0%29-24
1986-12-14Cleveland BrownsatCincinnati Bengals63.0%34-3
1986-12-14Buffalo BillsatIndianapolis Colts51.1%14-24
1986-12-14Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers42.4%21-7
1986-12-14St. Louis CardinalsatNew York Giants91.3%7-27
1986-12-14Seattle SeahawksatSan Diego Chargers44.2%34-24
1986-12-14Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Raiders68.0%20-17
1986-12-14Philadelphia EaglesatDallas Cowboys64.9%23-21
1986-12-14Miami DolphinsatLos Angeles Rams67.5%37-31
1986-12-14New Orleans SaintsatAtlanta Falcons55.8%14-9
1986-12-14Minnesota VikingsatHouston Oilers28.8%10-23
1986-12-15Chicago BearsatDetroit Lions18.5%16-13
1986-12-19Los Angeles RamsatSan Francisco 49ers64.5%14-24
1986-12-20Denver BroncosatSeattle Seahawks56.9%16-41
1986-12-20Green Bay PackersatNew York Giants91.5%24-55
1986-12-21Chicago BearsatDallas Cowboys29.2%24-10
1986-12-21New York JetsatCincinnati Bengals60.8%21-52
1986-12-21Buffalo BillsatHouston Oilers67.1%7-16
1986-12-21San Diego ChargersatCleveland Browns76.1%17-47
1986-12-21Tampa Bay BuccaneersatSt. Louis Cardinals78.4%17-21
1986-12-21Kansas City ChiefsatPittsburgh Steelers55.5%24-19
1986-12-21Indianapolis ColtsatLos Angeles Raidersshock85.9%30-24
1986-12-21Washington RedskinsatPhiladelphia Eagles39.2%21-14
1986-12-21Atlanta FalconsatDetroit Lions54.7%20-6
1986-12-21New Orleans SaintsatMinnesota Vikings63.7%17-33
1986-12-22New England PatriotsatMiami Dolphins59.3%34-27
1986-12-28Kansas City ChiefsatNew York Jets51.9%15-35
1986-12-28Los Angeles RamsatWashington Redskins67.7%7-19
1987-01-03Washington RedskinsatChicago Bears68.8%27-13
1987-01-03New York JetsatCleveland Browns70.6%20-23
1987-01-04San Francisco 49ersatNew York Giants69.6%3-49
1987-01-04New England PatriotsatDenver Broncos57.0%17-22
1987-01-11Denver BroncosatCleveland Browns60.2%23-20
1987-01-11Washington RedskinsatNew York Giants66.3%0-17
1987-01-25Denver BroncosvsNew York Giants69.0%20-39

Back to the full century, or score yourself on the same axis in Citizen of Nowhere Picks.